Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well, perhaps that's one of the reasons, but graphically speaking, prices are already tending to fall. So any impulse in that direction will cause prices to fall. All we can do is wait and try to take advantage of the situation.

You have been registered on the forum for a whole two cycles, in other words, slightly more than 8 years.

I am not opposed to any of what you are saying in regards to buying the dip or whatever you had meant by "taking advantage of the situation," yet I still wonder whether you have already been accumulating BTC in the past  years?  especially since it has been a great 8 years, especially for guys who might have had been able to establish a majority of their bitcoin position prior to 2021.

Yet, even a guy who had been accumulating around $100 per week in the past 8 years, he would have had invested around $300k (I know it sounds like a lot), and he would have right around 20 BTC.

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…
*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

If MSCI does it, I will taking all my funds out of Morgan Stanley, that's a promise, even though I have a minimal exposure to MSTR.

From my point of view, it does not take away from MSTR's value proposition, even if they will no longer benefit from being included in Index Funds.

Sure, they lose a lot of passive investment, so there will be an initial negative impact.  Accordingly, investors into MSTR would have to seek out MSTR and/or other bitcoin related investment funds, rather than merely relying on such funds being included inside of various index funds... I doubt that it is a slam dunk to leave MSTR and similar companies out, since there likely is some kind of preference to get performance out of various funds, yet I had seen that MSCI had mentioned that having bitcoin in such funds, it creates a kind of artificial feedback loop and is not necessarily reflective of more fundamental values (such as the companies real world production) since financial companies are left out of index funds too, right?

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

People remember it not because he sold...i am sure quite a few people sold some anywhere between 5k and 7K back then.
It's just he sold everything and did not re-buy, at least initially...pretty sure that he bought later on because he sometimes posts on btctalk, just not here (under the same nickname, at least ).

Mindrust was a bit dramatic and adamant about his sale, and yeah probably several of us did not help the situation, since there were quite a few of us trying to get him to explain and even get him to hedge his bets by at least buying back some portion of what he had sold.

I am pretty sure that he bought around 1 BTC back around $6k, and then he said that he was discontinuing his involvement with bitcoin and moving onto other things (which might have had been monero, even though he did not say exactly what he was moving onto).

He said that he was not coming back to this thread, even though he has been somewhat active in other parts of the forum, and he mostly avoids talking about his March 12, 2020 mistakes (and mistakes around that).  I am not sure what value he would get to participate in this thread as another pseudonym, yet it seems that it would not be against the rules since he is likely a forum member in good standing, as far as I know.. not that i follow his every interaction, though I come across his posts from time to time..

Amending this to point out that I do believe the chance that we are seeing some shenanigans unfold before our eyes that will definitely hurt the price of Bitcoin are pretty high at this point.

Doom and gloom from cAPSLOCK.



What else is new?

[cAPSLOCK]

I have to admit this is a little bit fun.  I must be a twisted human.

I can't remember the FUD being as thick as it is right now. It's just like...  Cheese Whiz.

The narrative of Strategy imploding reminds me a lot of the death spiral type of FUD.  And the thing is I can certainly entertain the scenarios on how something like that could go down.

The whole 6102 repeat and how all of the current administration's regulations and executive orders and all these things actually look just like they did back when FDR did the same thing but with gold.  Seize it, revalue it, you're out of debt as a country.

The pivot to smart contract chains for the sake of stable coins with people like Cathy Wood even recently saying that she's starting to believe that some of the economic energy is going over there instead of Bitcoin.

The argument that if Bitcoin isn't used to transactionally that it's worthless and that it's going to just fall like a house of cards because it has no value other than the fact that it's a Ponzi scheme.

We've got the minor death spiral thing coming back around in its own way that it's going to cost too much to mine Miners are going to start shutting down their unprofitable machines. We're going to go into a steep decline in hash power and blueberry-blabberty-blah.

And then you have the core team doing one of the stupidest things and shooting the middle finger to the entire user base as we begin to figure out that a lot of the people on that team are ideologues who do not believe what most Bitcoiners believe at this point.  And serious Bitcoiners beginning to wake up to the reality that we let foxes into the hen house.

And then there's the other side, which is saying that we've been dropping since the day that version 30 was released, which is true, but actually believe that that's the main reason. And theyve introduced what I think is a terrible idea in their soft fork plans.  All led by a guy who is at the same time massively brilliant and kind of a loon.

The Trump administration has become a chaos agent and has lost their own base.  And really hasn't done a whole lot since the very beginning positive for Bitcoin.  In fact, so far, the only way they're adding to the Bitcoin strategic reserve is by stealing coins.

We just saw the samurai bros get the maximum sentences for their "crimes" of writing open source code.

We literally heard this week that the Bitcoin core team was being financed by Jeffrey Epstein in the early days.

But probably the straw that broke the camel's back is Jack Dorsey making all the square terminals display Sats as Bitcoins.

But you know what? Bitcoin is going to be fine for so many reasons. The world is ending, yes...  The insects that take over after the apocalypse will probably actually be using Bitcoin.

[cAPSLOCK]

Doom and gloom from cAPSLOCK.



What else is new?

Not much new. You know me. Tomorrow I'll be saying something super, super bullish.

Actually, if you read my last, wordy man post that I just made, you'll see me making a lot of the negative arguments that I'm seeing out there right now. But closing off by saying it doesn't matter, basically.

I do think the the shininess of Michael Saylor's company is starting to dim quite a bit and people are actually seeing ways that it might end up being a liability for our community. I think it would be foolish not to consider that a possibility, just like a death spiral is a possibility. And even if the worst case scenario happened with strategy, what's that matter?  It won't in the big picture.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Krubster]

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.

[Richy_T]

we begin to figure out that a lot of the people on that team are ideologues who do not believe what most Bitcoiners believe at this point.

Quelle surprise.

[m2017]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Well, life is getting better. The market stopped falling... temporarily. And even recovered slightly.

I wonder how low bitcoin can go down? $70k? Lower? Well, that's unlikely. But I have a feeling the crypto market could still recover to $100k (or so). We're unlikely to see new ATH levels, but a rebound is possible. Is what's happening now just a shakeout of weak hands? Maybe so

In any case, it's an interesting spectacle to watch the current panic. Who here is scared by what's happening? And who is determined to buy at a discount?

[cAPSLOCK]

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.

It looks like your node is running quite well. I got fed up after a series of hardware issues and basically shut them down but recently spun back up one of my old nodes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[asUHWEceyc]

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1991981569553375669/photo/1
ERUPTION in volume for the bitcoin ETFs.. all time record set today with $11.5b as a group. $IBIT was $8b of that, which was all time record for it. Wild but also normal- whenever an ETF or category is 'going through it' volume is elevated. ETFs are liq release valves.

Remember 2014, 2015 and 2016 how much so many folks were skeptical regarding how the bitcoin price was being established because there was a sense that the Chinese exchanges were faking their trade volume.

Now, perhaps this is part of the objective of the various bitcoin spot ETF advocates - to be able to be the ones who are establishing "the official" bitcoin price by trading fake products?.. .. or at least derivative products..

Now it would be a good opportunity to take gold profits and buy Bitcoin, right? (Seriously.)

Btc broke the 93k region few days ago and it's heading straight to the 85k support. Which simply means more dip. You can decide to bag now or still wait a little longer to bag more. The market looks boring and most people lose interest that's where the market is at right now.

Similar to you, Pjcr7, I am just bored to death with this current BTC (and related) market.

There is like nothing happening.  Right?

I will admit that currently there seems to be enough momentum to reach $85k, especially since we have already experienced $85,912 within the past 7.5-ish hours... yet sure, there could be enough momentum (perhaps?) to also reach $85k or sub $85k.  Perhaps ? Perhaps?  Isn't that boring?

It's still less than 24hrs after this and BTC is now less than 85k, my prediction hits right 

Why would (or should) anyone who is in bitcoin for the long term give any shits about your prediction, to the extent it matters, and to the extent that you believe (perhaps a fantasy?) that you are able to see into the future.  You must be really rich when you have those abilities, right?  Or is that part of the package that you would like to sell?

Some people sold their bags right before the breakout, personally I don't think BTC would have been this dip,

That sounds retarded to be selling at these prices - unless they were selling for some other reason, such as just needing the coins and they could not wait or they had not sold any in the past 6 months or so..

I would think that many guys who are mostly active in this thread get into bitcoin to invest and not trade.. so depending where they are at in their BTC accumulation journey, it would seem that these are price territories to either be buying or if a guy ran out of money and/or does not want to buy, then to at least just HODL through the situation to see what is happening next...

I mean 126k to 84k+ as of now in just few weeks that's because major institutions are involved on it right now and the are rewriting the pattern of crypto

We are not talking about crypto or shitcoins in this thread, except for a few retards don't seem to know the difference between bitcoin and derivative products.

You think that major institutions are in charge of bitcoin and its price movements now?

unlike previously when retailed Investor dominated the market.

I suppose part of the reason that some folks consider various institutions as a threat to the extent that they are fucking around with paper bitcoin products, so yeah it could be difficult to do anything about them, yet they still might end up getting their lil selfies into trouble if they are selling bitcoin that they don't have because at some point they likely would need to buy them back.. but yeah, sure, bitcoin is being manipulated and attempted to be manipulated... What else is new? besides the players changing?

On an individual level, how are you dealing with it?   just sit back and proclaim that it is fate?  it is out of our hands?

I will agree that I don't really do much of anything except for buy when the price goes down and sell when it goes up.. so how am I going to be negatively affected by my behaviors besides witnessing that there seem to be attempts to cause it to be more and more difficult for bitcoin to be transacted individually and privately, even though it seems that bitcoin holders still can transact privately and without anyone stopping them, as long as they hold the actual bitcoin.

The wrong side of these institutions is that they will keep on adjusting and manipulating the market untill they themselves are fully positioned.

Sure they manipulate, and they try to manipulate as much as they can. Do you think that you are saying anything original?  Do you think that they are manipulating in order to kill the golden goose? or do you think that some institutions, governments and/or status quo rich folks are recognizing ways that they can personally benefit from getting involved in bitcoin, besides the control element.  You may well recognize and appreciate that merely holding more coins does not necessarily give more control over bitcoin the network, right?

Here's the advantage of this institution now, once they are satisfied and well positioned, then comes the smiley faces because market capitalisation will surge which will make BTC to breakout and hit another ATH.

So you are saying down before up?  You think that it is that simple?

This is the time to position yourselves and not time to sell your bags, it might seem tiring but hold on.

Many guys here have already been positioning themselves for years.

Srue there are also newbies to bitcoin who have to spend time accumulating bitcoin.  You have ONLY been on the forum for slightly more than a year, so you might be the one who needs to follow your own advice to the extent that you have been accumulating bitcoin in the past year and likely continuing to accumulate bitcoin.

It can take a long time to really establish a meaningful stake in bitcoin, and personally, I think that it would have had been difficult for anyone accumulating bitcoin since late 2023 and thereafter to really establish a meaningful bitcoin stake. 

Of course, guys who came into bitcoin priior to 2024 would have had had an advantage, and even guys ewho established their position prior to 2021 would have had an advantage.

Yet, we cannot turn back the clock, so I don't disagree with your asssertion that newbies (such as anyone in bitcoin less than a whole cycle (4 years) are likely still in need to establish their bitcoin position (whether they know it or not). 

Even though there are some guys on the forum who don't really know the difference between investing and trading, so they get distracted into trading and/or distracted into shitcoins, yet at the same time, there are a decent number of forum members who recognize that there is a need to accumulate bitcoin and to establish a position.   It can be difficult to determine for someone else how much of a position they should establish in bitcoin, even though I consider using the current income as a starting point can be helpful in determining whether they want to live at the same standard of living that they are accustomed or perhaps some multiple above their current standard of living - so then they might frame their bitcoin accumulation goal in light of either their current standard of living or some multiple of that current standard of living.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Well, life is getting better. The market stopped falling... temporarily. And even recovered slightly.

I wonder how low bitcoin can go down? $70k? Lower? Well, that's unlikely. But I have a feeling the crypto market could still recover to $100k (or so). We're unlikely to see new ATH levels, but a rebound is possible. Is what's happening now just a shakeout of weak hands? Maybe so

In any case, it's an interesting spectacle to watch the current panic. Who here is scared by what's happening? And who is determined to buy at a discount?

Almost always I have found it scary when the BTC price is dropping, especially when it gets to more than a 30% drop.  I am not considering this time to be worse than previous times, even though it is still scary.

My buy orders go down to just below $35k, yet I really don't see why we would get even close to those kinds of prices, and even though i am starting to consider that $70k and/or sub $70k is possible, I still wonder why there is any need to go below the April 2025 low of $74,434... so yeah, it kind of sucks, and my buy orders have current increments of every $3k, yet if we go below $70k, then they are every $2k... I prefer no more down.  I have had enough down, yet we know that in bitcoin extremes happen, and sometimes the price won't reverse without some kind of an extreme... not that such extreme is necessary... but sometimes we will have some kind of an extreme before the price reverses and resumes up. 

I don't get excited to buy at a discount.

[Hueristic]

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Searing]

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

It is what it is I guess if Micro Strategy and others are forced to sell by Stock Market if Bitcoin/Crypto Assets are keeping the Companie(s) afloat...ie they become

a 'fund' and off the stock market?

What do you all think? What is the 'tipping' point, if anyone knows offhand, on Mirco Strategy's price on BTC to have this happen?

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/32666150245826

[Biodom]

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

It is what it is I guess if Micro Strategy and others are forced to sell by Stock Market if Bitcoin/Crypto Assets are keeping the Companie(s) afloat...ie they become

a 'fund' and off the stock market?

What do you all think? What is the 'tipping' point, if anyone knows offhand, on Mirco Strategy's price on BTC to have this happen?

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/32666150245826

That bluefin dude has an easily contestable opinion.

Example: Berkshire consists of many stock positions plus cash plus some businesses owned outright.
I am pretty sure that their value of stocks+cash is more than 50% of the company value.
So..you can hold >50% unrelated stocks you are a company, but if you hold >50% bitcoin, you are a fund?
The 50% number is arbitrary too.

It might happen, but then i hope MSaylor sues MSCI for a few tens of billions...and would likely win.

EDIT: that said, personally, I would have preferred MS not to invest 100% of the recently raised 835 mil instantly into btc.
I know that this is his modus operandi, but some cash reserve never hurt anyone.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Krubster]

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.

It looks like your node is running quite well. I got fed up after a series of hardware issues and basically shut them down but recently spun back up one of my old nodes.

Happy to see back. You and some others (you know who you are) here on the WO made me start my LN node 3 years ago.

The activity on the LN has definitely increased lately. As shown in the picture above, I've routed about 15 btc the past week with a profit of 735k sats.

If you need some inbound liquidity, please let me know.