Bitcoin Forum
February 18, 2026, 01:30:06 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 30.2 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

Pages: « 1 ... 35142 35143 35144 35145 35146 35147 35148 35149 35150 35151 35152 35153 35154 35155 35156 35157 35158 35159 35160 35161 35162 35163 35164 35165 35166 35167 35168 35169 35170 35171 35172 35173 35174 35175 35176 35177 35178 35179 35180 35181 35182 35183 35184 35185 35186 35187 35188 35189 35190 35191 [35192] 35193 35194 35195 35196 35197 35198 35199 35200 35201 35202 35203 35204 35205 35206 35207 35208 35209 35210 35211 35212 35213 35214 35215 35216 35217 35218 35219 35220 35221 35222 35223 35224 35225 35226 35227 35228 35229 35230 35231 35232 35233 35234 35235 35236 35237 35238 35239 35240 35241 35242 ... 35520 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26932203 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 05:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
WatChe
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540
Merit: 923



View Profile WWW
November 22, 2025, 05:03:43 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



Thank you for sharing this.

Such posts keep me motivated to HODL tightly.

Just Buy, Buy, Buy

They will say we got lucky - Saylor
BitHodlers
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 294
Merit: 123


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 05:09:07 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



Good, it aligns with the prediction that I made a while back.

New theory, the cycle is extended and we will see the top of this cycle in Q4 2026. Who's with me?
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4284
Merit: 7237


The OTHER Wordy Man


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 05:38:05 PM
Merited by fillippone (6)

Of course it's unusual to agree with someone on a long list of points, but I would say that on the current environment in the Bitcoin world Giacomo and I are quite aligned.

I might not be quite as thrilled with Taproot and Peter Todd, but I'm for them both. Sort of.

cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4284
Merit: 7237


The OTHER Wordy Man


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 05:44:47 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



That's great. I actually have my own shade tree version of that exact same chart up because I like looking at RSI and on the weekly it is f#&king beautiful.

I walked by a mirror after looking at it, and this is what I saw.

ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 06:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
fillippone
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2800
Merit: 19922


Duelbits.com - Rewarding, beyond limits.


View Profile WWW
November 22, 2025, 06:51:47 PM

Of course it's unusual to agree with someone on a long list of points, but I would say that on the current environment in the Bitcoin world Giacomo and I are quite aligned.


My fellow Giacomo, aka "il priore" (prior, long term inside joke of Italian Bitcoin community) or "il console" (consul ,as he's El Salvador consul in Switzerland).
It's the only person in the world who can be pro Luke and pro Peter at the same time.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 07:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4396
Merit: 5904



View Profile
November 22, 2025, 07:10:40 PM

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



That's great. I actually have my own shade tree version of that exact same chart up because I like looking at RSI and on the weekly it is f#&king beautiful.

I walked by a mirror after looking at it, and this is what I saw.

<gif snip>

I am in hodling forever mode, but will explore borrowing against a fraction, hopefully, at the bottom as interest rates should be lower and risk of breaching the LTV limits also lower.

Currently, you can safely do maybe 20% LTV, but if we drop 50% (NOT looking forward to this possibility), you may probably do at least 40% LTV, which would increase efficiency and reduce the number of "locked" btc.
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4396
Merit: 5904



View Profile
November 22, 2025, 07:22:20 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



Brilliant...so, maybe the first above 100K peak in january (around inauguration) was a true market peak (at least as far as the mood is concerned).
In fact, MSTR concurs.

That said, if the de-facto bear market started in January and Summer-Oct was just a bounce (similar to a double hump in 2021), it could mean that we are close (maybe 2-4 mo) to being out of it.

An interesting take!

I would like to see the look on halving chartists (like B. Cowen) face if we would start ripping up from March-April instead of being in a decline until Oct 2026, as they predict.
OutOfMemory
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2184
Merit: 4853


Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 07:23:29 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1)

So, what i see in the chart is forming out of the first rising triangle (4h) since mid-October.
Carefully supporting Bob's recent this-may-have-been-the-bottom post.
If the pattern succeeds to finally print, the projected breakout should be happening around Sunday/Monday.

Disclaimer: I think about (forward) chart analysis like gipsy crystal ball reading, which means: anything can happen.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 08:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4354
Merit: 13982


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 08:40:56 PM

I think the creation of various derivative financial instruments is kind of gross and kind of just another paper Bitcoin.
If we don't do it, someone else will do it.

Who is "we"?  You trying to turn this into a patriotic thing?

Of course, many bitcoiners are going to concede that bitcoin is for everyone, so you cannot stop bitcoin from being used by anyone who wants to, friends and enemies.. yet at the same time, if what the various financial instrument folks (whether talking about Backrock and the various ETFs or Saylor/MSTR and the various treasury companies) are doing can be considered as a kind of an attack on foundational level bitcoin and undermines bitcoin becaus of an attempt to prioritize using bitcoin through their instruments and systems and to vilify bitcoin being used in direct peer to peer ways, there are good reasons to announce and even to complain about such attack, even if you consider such attack to be coming from "the good guys.".. not very often that we have money-grubbing "Blackrock" portrayed as the good guys, unless you are some kind of a blinded fan-boy.

That is the world that we live in unfortunately. Better it be Saylor than some random shitcoiner VC leading this part of the industry, right?

For sure, since 2020 Saylor has had a lot of good ways of talking about bitcoin, he has pretty much shouted from the rooftops in respects to everyone needing to get into bitcoin, and he has had a lot of interesting ways of saying it, yet even some of his ways of talking about bitcoin have evolved in the years and any critical thinking person will not just blindly agree with Saylor merely because Saylor controls a lot of bitcoin. 

Some folks are rightfully skeptical of Saylor/MSTR because of how much bitcoin that he/MSTR controls and based on some of their tactics of using other people's money to get bitcoin in which they completely own the bitcoin (even though they tend to keep their bitcoin with custodians, like Coinbase, which is another angle that Saylor/MSTR has been rightfully criticized).

The narrative of Strategy imploding reminds me a lot of the death spiral type of FUD.  And the thing is I can certainly entertain the scenarios on how something like that could go down.
The funny thing or sad thing is that Strategy can not implode at all unless BTC does something stupid like -90% or more.

You are likely correct that they are prepared for quite high levels of BTC correction (perhaps 70% plus) and potentially for extensive periods of time (like a whole cycle).

They have little debt and obligations comparatively speaking to their total holdings. Some people think everything was bought with debt and BTC crashing a little harder would nuke Strategy. It is quite similar to the stupid death spiral type of FUD. These people that fall for this nonsense don't even do basic research, even if their name starts with Og.  Cheesy

Sure.  There are a lot of folks who have no fucking clue how MSTR/Saylor have structured its various debt instruments. I don't claim to know a lot either, even though I know that frequently MTR/Saylor naysayers frequently automatically think about collateralized loans, and I am pretty sure that none of MSTR/Saylor's debts are related to collateralizing the assets. and several of the past loans they paid off, which means that they own a lot of the BTC unencumbered.  Furthermore, if MSTR/Saylor happens to have some collateralized debt it would not be in amounts that are materially significant.

Another thing that is presumed is that if the BTC price goes below MSTR's average cost per coin (which is around $77k) that MSTR saylor will have to do something, which are totally fantasy ideas.  If you completely own the coins then it does not matter if they are in profits or not, unless for some reason other obligations are not being met.
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4284
Merit: 7237


The OTHER Wordy Man


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 08:46:34 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1)

Here is a FANTASTIC article by someone I have never seen before.  But this person's speculative read on what is actually happening behind the system and behind some of the sketchy stuff we see happening around MSTR for example.

This (possibly fantasy) narrative actually makes a LOT of sense as to why certain things are happening, and why we can see there is real tension between the Fed Rsrv, the shareholder banks (Jamie Dimon) and our currency savant Sec Treasury.

This explains a lot of the things that DJT's two elder sons say all the time.  (Because they know the plan.)  They are donkeys who want to look smart when the masses start to get it.

By the way... did you guys know Scott Bessent showed up at the DC "Pubkey" bar grand opening and hung out with all the Bitcoinners.

This article explains why the Bessent and Powell seem to be quiet arch enemies.  Why Bessent has been buffing up the Treasury and pulling as much power away from the FR as he can.

This explains clearly why JPM or trying to harm Strategy.

As usual, do not assign a political narrative to me please, and I think there are a LOT of ways this thing could be off, or only partially right.  Including this all being the setup for 6502 repeat.  Bessent has a past that makes look as much the villain for freedom as the superhero.

It's long.  But worth the read.

https://x.com/HodlMaryland/status/1991962431191490574

Quote
A monetary power struggle is erupting in plain sight - and almost no one understands the stakes. Here is my highly speculative take.

Over the past few months, a pattern has emerged across politics, markets, and media. Scattered headlines suddenly connect, market anomalies look less accidental, and institutional actors are behaving with unusual aggression. Something deeper is happening beneath the surface.
This is not a normal monetary cycle.
This is not traditional partisanship.
This is not “market volatility.”
What we are witnessing is a direct confrontation between two competing monetary regimes:
The old order... centered around JPMorgan, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve.
 And the new order... centered around Treasury, stablecoins, and a Bitcoin-anchored digital architecture.

... ..  (go read it!)

PS this article reeks of AI.  But is actually very well written, and fronts a great theory.
Richy_T
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3010
Merit: 2812


1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 08:50:41 PM

ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 09:01:17 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
BTCETFInvestor
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 210
Merit: 58

Toodaloo! ..-. ..- -.-. -.- / -.-- --- ..-


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 09:09:13 PM
Last edit: November 23, 2025, 01:00:53 AM by BTCETFInvestor

FYI - Heavy Call Strikes at $120K–$140K with traders loading up on bullish call options, signaling high optimism for a potential breakout above six figures. There is year-end expiry amounting to $8.8B. The December 26 expiry is one of the largest ever, with $6.45B in calls vs. only $2.36B in puts. This imbalance is a highly bullish sentiment, but the December rally is expected to have swings and will not necessarily be smooth.

December is shaping up as a high-stakes month for Bitcoin options traders with massive open interest, bullish call positioning, and defensive hedging all converging tightly around the year-end expiry.

It is definitely bullish at this time when looking ahead toward mid-late December.

ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 10:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2814
Merit: 2414


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 11:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4452
Merit: 6859


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
November 22, 2025, 11:16:16 PM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

Pages: « 1 ... 35142 35143 35144 35145 35146 35147 35148 35149 35150 35151 35152 35153 35154 35155 35156 35157 35158 35159 35160 35161 35162 35163 35164 35165 35166 35167 35168 35169 35170 35171 35172 35173 35174 35175 35176 35177 35178 35179 35180 35181 35182 35183 35184 35185 35186 35187 35188 35189 35190 35191 [35192] 35193 35194 35195 35196 35197 35198 35199 35200 35201 35202 35203 35204 35205 35206 35207 35208 35209 35210 35211 35212 35213 35214 35215 35216 35217 35218 35219 35220 35221 35222 35223 35224 35225 35226 35227 35228 35229 35230 35231 35232 35233 35234 35235 35236 35237 35238 35239 35240 35241 35242 ... 35520 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!