Price action is looking really good. I just hope we are not here -
If we are in a regular 4 year cycle then the circled above is where we are now. If four year cycles are a thing of the past then we are going to Valhalla. Hopefully for all our sakes, it’s the latter.
Bitcoin's new 8 year cycle™.
I'm all for that right now. But a 5-6 year bear market? ...gawd
It does not logically follow that either the bull market or the bear market has to be happening at any specific length of time.. especially 5-6 years. Holy sheit..
Don't get me wrong. I am not proclaiming the death of the 4-year cycle, since it is both premature to make such declaration, and we also don't really know what the bitcoin price is going to do next, except that it seems that the odds are at least in the ballpark of being equally good that the bull market is not over yet as compared with the seemingly ongoing premature proclamations that we are in a bear market or that the top is in.
Part of my ongoing problem relates to the level of confidence that such bear market (or no more bull market proclamations are made rather than my having any of my own proclamations... since i don't claim to do proclamations .. I would rather just see where we are going to go and attempt to best prepare for either direction rather than presuming one of them to have fantastically high odds of playing out.
There is also no reason to discontinue proclaiming that we are in a bull market - since it seems that we continue to be in a bull market until we aren't... and so far, there has not been anything to take us out of the bull market.
Historically, we have experienced greater than 30% corrections during a bull market and had not gotten taken out of the bull market, even though at the same time, there sometimes can be arguments in regards to when a bull market had ended up ending... So, sometimes "we" might not even agree upon the meaning of what had already happened, since many times describing what had happened can also provide some kinds of a meaningful framework for predicting what is more likely to happen in the future...
So yeah, even us 50/50 guys (including my lil selfie in such club) who are not really willing to make strong predictions, we still might end up making strong counter-points in response to guys who seem to be strongly proclaiming what they believe is going to happen.. and yeah, people do not tend to speak with nuance, and so many times they speak in terms of black and white which contribute towards ongoing battles that will never end because so many normies have so many difficulties in regards to reasonably hedging their visions of the future.
I do not know about the rest of you but I would not be disappointed by Bitcoin if it dropped to levels even as low as 20 to 30 Thousand at all. It has had really long winters in the past and I signed up for this knowing there may be other winters in the future too. But at the end of the day I am convinced that it will not only recover but it will keep growing value over time too.
You are living in a fantasy if you believe that $20k to $30k has anything beyond less than 0.1% odds of happening.
So many times over the years we have had guys spouting out some extreme theories, like the one you mention, and even if some of us will concede that the odds are not zero, but it seems a bit retarded to even be entertaining such fantasies.
To get thrills and euphoria, I would personally need to see Bitcoin growing from 100 Thousand to over a Million Dollars in less than an year.
You seem to really be distracted by the unit.. .on both sides of the spectrum.. the side in which you consider it reasonable to suggest that $20k to $30k might be possible and the side that you consider $1 million to be amazing - when it is not. $1 million is ONLY 8x from the $126,272 high - which is really not a big jump, when we are considering what bitcoin can already do and considering what bitcoin is capable of doing.
I believe this level will be touched but not in as little as 300 days. Other wise, I will not get thrill if I saw Bitcoin at 250 to 300 Thousand Dollars in the next years.
I will agree with you that it would be quite surprising to experience $1 million bitcoin within 2026 - even though it is not outside of the realm of possibilities.
It is also true that we have BIGGER and BIGGER players coming into bitcoin, so there seem to be greater efforts to control its price volatility, yet I have doubts in regards to how much capacity that BIGGER players have to control bitcoin and/or its prices.. but yeah, I am ongoingly willing to just observe rather than getting too caught up upon specifics regarding what might or might not happen even if there seems to remain a decently broad array of things that could end up happening - including but not limited to large changes in bitcoin's price, especially to the upside.
It is incredibly high if compared to 2017 or even 2021 but it is 'the new normal' now.
I have my doubts. In terms of percentages, we are ONLY 4x to 6x price differences from the 2017 top until current prices ($19,666 in 2017 and between $80k and $126k currently).
- - - - although the 200-WMA is nearly $56k right now as compared to
its 2017 levels, which was barely getting above $1k at that time... so that 56x difference seems to be a pretty BIG deal.. even though so many folks seems to get so excited and distracted by spot prices rather than what I would consider to be more meaningful measurements of bitcoin's performance in regards to where we were at as compared with where we are at in various historical timelines, such as the 200-WMA.
2026 looks like it is going to be a new year of new Highs on the United States Debt chart so I am ready for what ever comes.
Yes, it is amazing how much the current reserve currency (the dollar) is ongoingly being debased... .. yet bitcoin's value does not ONLY come from dollar debasement.
I expect this is why you do not get the thrills either.
In fact. I kind of lack the patience to wait for what looks like will be the new Economic Crisis or Recession. Bitcoin is here particularly because of the really bad Fiat system and the Fiat system is showing very large cracks you have to be almost blind to ignore. Back in 2008 through 2012 people did not have Smart phones, they were really bad with technology over all. Today even 80 year olds own Smart phones and do Banking on them. If in 2008 people who were desperately looking for a refuge from the crashing Fiat system did not find Bitcoin, imagine this time they will see the shining light at the end of the tunnel and finally realize this is what Bitcoin was all about. Pair this to the new CBDCs they are planning to integrate into the already bad system and the effects on Bitcoin will probably be pretty strong once people start running away.
Yep. Various iterations of CBDCs (including various co-optations of stable coins) is likely to contribute to ongoing battles that bitcoin will go through and that many normies are going to have to figure out ways to balance their own ways of holding and transmitting their own values.
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