Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

I think he asked AI and this is what AI suggested, more or less...he alluded to this in one of his talks.
My "problem" with his preferred(s) is that I have no idea what is their "fair" price point is: STRD started at 85, went to 95, then down to 80 gradually, then precipitously to 66, now recovered to 77. It's a stock-like behavior, not a bond-like.

With this kind of volatility 10% dividend (or even 15%) is irrelevant because 66+15 is still just 81 when someone could have bought it at 94-95.
I did not buy this one-it's a theoretical discussion.

[wachtwoord]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

I think he asked AI and this is what AI suggested, more or less...he alluded to this in one of his talks.
My "problem" with his preferred(s) is that I have no idea what is their "fair" price point is: STRD started at 85, went to 95, then down to 80 gradually, then precipitously to 66, now recovered to 77. It's a stock-like behavior, not a bond-like.

With this kind of volatility 10% dividend (or even 15%) is irrelevant because 66+15 is still just 81 when someone could have bought it at 94-95.
I did not buy this one-it's a theoretical discussion.

Preferreds are always a complex half debt half equity security. But dividends can be halted without defaulting and often they can force convert to equity without defaulting. Unless very mispriced just buy real debt or real equity. Or you know avoid a company like this as you can just buy and hold btc yourself.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital on the other hand occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

The reason Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay dividends is because management believes they can generate higher long-term returns by reinvesting retained earnings rather than distributing them to shareholders. This is the same philosophy Saylor has in that he is reinvesting a significant amount of the company's unneeded earnings in Bitcoin, which he believes will generate high returns.    
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[wachtwoord]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

It's not relevant (other than for US taxes) if a dividend is paid of retained earnings or not. It's a way to return capital to the investor (not return of initial investment!) regardless. Further you agree and reiterate my exact post while believing you are correcting it...

[BTCETFInvestor]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

It's not relevant (other than for US taxes) if a dividend is paid of retained earnings or not. It's a way to return capital to the investor (not return of initial investment!) regardless. Further you agree and reiterate my exact post while believing you are correcting it...

While both dividends and ROC put money in the investor’s hands, a dividend is not usually considered a return of capital. It’s a way of sharing profits.

[Hueristic]

The reason Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay dividends because management believes they can generate higher long-term returns by reinvesting retained earnings rather than distributing them to shareholders. This is the same philosophy Saylor has in that he is reinvesting a significant amount of the company's unneeded earnings in Bitcoin, which he believes will generate high returns.    

That's the lie they push, the real truth is the .01# have figured out its better to own nothing and to borrow off of their assets as they don't pay anything in interest or taxes that way.

[birr]

Somebody on the forum used to post pictures of foreign cities and see if people could identify the location.  Well, here's a video that somebody posted on X and claimed it was shot in Paris.  I have my doubts that the video was taken in Paris.  The street lacks bollards and lane markings typical of Paris.  Plus, I've never seen a street in Paris that looks even remotely as trashed as the one in the video.  Can any of y'all geolocating geniuses pin this one down?  Here is the link to the post on X with the video
https://x.com/BasedJess05/status/1990127177937924417

[asUHWEceyc]

Expecting a legit dead cat (TG bart wasn't) or start of the next leg uppity around 12/13 per current minibear-usgubmint shutdown duration matching (43 days < 200dma). Upcoming postdiction narrative fitting events for fiat finance types:

2025/12/01      "QT dun!" -JP
2025/12/05      MSTR SP500 likely rejection
2025/12/10      FOMC 25bps FF rate cut  
2025/12/16      Nov US jobs report
2025/12/18      Nov US CPI report
by 2025/12/24  Trump Tariffs SC ruling
2026 Q1          Clarity Act

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

For years I have seen folks mischaracterizing what Saylor/MSTR is doing and even suggesting that he is buying the dip and baloney like that, when his tactics over the past 5-ish years has seemed to largely revolve around buying bitcoin whenever he had money available and surely one of the ironies in regards to the behaviors of investors is that they tend to throw money at Saylor when the BTC price would be going up rather than when it was going down.

I had been one of those frequently criticizing Saylor/MSTR for his cashflow management practices - since I had frequently considered what he was doing to be a bit sloppy in pure money management senses, yet it is not so sloppy when it has to do with marketing and even putting money to work when people were throwing such money at him in various kinds of debt or financial instrument kinds of settings.

I personally think that it is better to hold a decent amount of cash reserves, even though his timing for transitioning into the addition of such better cash reserves strategies came at a bit of awkward time when he seems to being attacked for not being financially responsible enough.. and so his responding to an attack comes off more strange to me than the fact that his adding better cashflow management systems and/or practices is likely a superior approach even if he still considers himself (and his company) to still be in bitcoin accumulation and/or maintenance stages and he is not going to really get into any stage that really involves liquidation.. which seems mostly consistent with what he had always been saying.

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

I think he asked AI and this is what AI suggested, more or less...he alluded to this in one of his talks.
My "problem" with his preferred(s) is that I have no idea what is their "fair" price point is: STRD started at 85, went to 95, then down to 80 gradually, then precipitously to 66, now recovered to 77. It's a stock-like behavior, not a bond-like.

With this kind of volatility 10% dividend (or even 15%) is irrelevant because 66+15 is still just 81 when someone could have bought it at 94-95.
I did not buy this one-it's a theoretical discussion.

Preferreds are always a complex half debt half equity security. But dividends can be halted without defaulting and often they can force convert to equity without defaulting. Unless very mispriced just buy real debt or real equity. Or you know avoid a company like this as you can just buy and hold btc yourself.

I am not going to presume that bitcoin is the ONLY way to hold value, and sometimes even inferior instruments can have useful roles when we are allocating them in reasonable ways.

Let's say that a guy is wanting to live off of various passive income sources and to achieve at least an $80k per year income and with a 7% increase in his income each year into perpetuity.

Even though he might have some other income sources besides his bitcoin, let's try to focus on bitcoin, since this is a bitcoin thread. 

From my own point of view, right now a guy with $80k per year aspirations, could completely live off of his bitcoin with a stash size of 14.3349 BTC.. .so let's say that the guy has the 14.3349 BTC, but he also has an additional 14.3349 BTC.. so he largely has twice as much BTC. 

He could experiment with the extra BTC, and yeah, he does not even need double his stash to experiment, since one portion of his BTC stash pretty much provides his total required income (or his target level).

Since he has a decent amount of surplus, he could play around with portions of his surpluses, and he could even have 5-14 different stashes of bitcoin that are doing different things and each sub-stash might consist of 0.5 BTC to 3 BTC, and then he just plugs those substashes into various MSTR financial products and sees how those financial products perform for him and maybe even producing other cashflows that he feels that he might not be able to get with other financial instruments that he could invest into... One of the advantages of reaching past our goals is that we have options... and even if we might find some of those tools to be more risky or more costly than others, we might still want to have products in our holdings that pay out in differing kinds of ways.

[xhomerx10]

I got my 12 inch by 12 inch by 1/8 inch titanium plate today.

Grade CP-1

But... But... But what do you do with the extra 10 inches? Oh wait, I see who I was quoting... Do they really drop that much in your old age where you need the full 12???
K

well i practice stretching on a daily basis so mine are dropping far enough that i have to sit carefully so as not to hurt them😉

 That reminds me of a song...

Do your ears hang low?
 Do they wobble to and fro?
 Can you tie them in a knot?
 Can you tie them in a bow?
 Can you throw them over your shoulder
 Like a continental soldier?
 Do your ears hang low?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

Holy shit is this true???

Did Germany really do this???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NY3h-0c5Sg

More time than the rapists

UK, France, Germany are fucked. No going back from here... chances are high that they will be Muslim countries in 50-100 years

[JimboToronto]

Do your ears hang low?
 Do they wobble to and fro?
 Can you tie them in a knot?
 Can you tie them in a bow?
 Can you throw them over your shoulder
 Like a continental soldier?
 Do your ears hang low?

Oh bollocks.

[OgNasty]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

It's not relevant (other than for US taxes) if a dividend is paid of retained earnings or not. It's a way to return capital to the investor (not return of initial investment!) regardless. Further you agree and reiterate my exact post while believing you are correcting it...

My take is that is Strategy is going to be the Bitcoin treasury company, they should be spending their USD on Bitcoin, not paying it to investors in the form of a dividend. This is obviously a last ditch effort to open his stock to a different investment market to try and gain a better than 1 mNAV. It is a sign of how bad things are right now for MSTR.

[Biodom]

Expecting a legit dead cat (TG bart wasn't) or start of the next leg uppity around 12/13 per current minibear-usgubmint shutdown duration matching (43 days < 200dma). Upcoming postdiction narrative fitting events for fiat finance types:

2025/12/01      "QT dun!" -JP
2025/12/05      MSTR SP500 likely rejection
2025/12/10      FOMC 25bps FF rate cut  
2025/12/16      Nov US jobs report
2025/12/18      Nov US CPI report
by 2025/12/24  Trump Tariffs SC ruling
2026 Q1          Clarity Act

I expect a 10% or maybe even 15% dip in SP500, which could come either in December or January.
Reason: bitcoin always leads up or down...so, dividing 35% btc decline by a factor of 2-3 (to account for less SP500 volatility) gives us a 11.5-17.5% decline in SP500.

Most logical (to me) time frame for this to occur is immediately after the paltry 25bp rate cut.
However, WS will "fight" it as their yearly bonuses are predicated on the positive year close, so, in this case, maybe a 5% decline from the rate cut to Dec 31 with large daily gyrations and then another, say, 7-12% decline in January. No big deal.

Having said that, bitcoin might not be affected much as it had a significant decline already.
EDIT: Clarity Act is maybe when bitcoin would turn around, hopefully.
We shall see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com