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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26915247 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
bitcoinPsycho
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$150000 in one hour confirmed


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December 02, 2025, 03:12:29 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

90 on the menu


Bears shitting their pants  Grin
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December 02, 2025, 03:21:03 PM
Last edit: December 02, 2025, 03:35:26 PM by bitcoinPsycho
Merited by El duderino_ (6)

Breaking... ....3i Atlas is running a full bitcoin node.  Earth money evolution level 6 achieved
Contact initiated t-18 days




https://avi-loeb.medium.com/is-the-sunward-anti-tail-of-3i-atlas-composed-of-a-swarm-of-objects-55c3c75a8e9b
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December 02, 2025, 03:33:18 PM

[edited out]
My take is that is Strategy is going to be the Bitcoin treasury company, they should be spending their USD on Bitcoin, not paying it to investors in the form of a dividend. This is obviously a last ditch effort to open his stock to a different investment market to try and gain a better than 1 mNAV. It is a sign of how bad things are right now for MSTR.

Yeah.  MSTR must feel so bad owning more than 640k BTC and hardly having any debt.  They are really fucked.  Just think if the BTC price went down, they would still own the BTC but the BTC would be worth less than they are now.

If the price dropped down to $45k, then it would be like only owning 320k bitcoin with hardly any debt..   They are really screwed.

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.

I thought that you were waiting for the $50ks?  You changed your plan?

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.

Yeah, this should be a thing to keep spirits high during the bear market (if we are indeed in one now).

Let’s post our buys in the bear market like Saylor does.

I will start to do it but not until we are below $65,000.

Doesn't seem too likely, but not worth another bet.. You'll have to pay me your 100k sats from whatever reservoir that you already have, and plus you will feel bad that you did not start replacing them at or below $90k, which was already a gift... even though you did not recognize such gift.

Guys (gamblers) make all kinds of errors in bitcoin, and you will at least be partially forgiven for your mistake when BTC returns to ATH prices.. and yeah, apparently you did not need as many bitcoin as you had in order to still enjoy a decently good life.... since it seems that you were already overinvested anyhow.

Preferreds are always a complex half debt half equity security. But dividends can be halted without defaulting and often they can force convert to equity without defaulting. Unless very mispriced just buy real debt or real equity. Or you know avoid a company like this as you can just buy and hold btc yourself.

I am not going to presume that bitcoin is the ONLY way to hold value, and sometimes even inferior instruments can have useful roles when we are allocating them in reasonable ways.

Let's say that a guy is wanting to live off of various passive income sources and to achieve at least an $80k per year income and with a 7% increase in his income each year into perpetuity.

Even though he might have some other income sources besides his bitcoin, let's try to focus on bitcoin, since this is a bitcoin thread. 

From my own point of view, right now a guy with $80k per year aspirations, could completely live off of his bitcoin with a stash size of 14.3349 BTC.. .so let's say that the guy has the 14.3349 BTC, but he also has an additional 14.3349 BTC.. so he largely has twice as much BTC. 

He could experiment with the extra BTC, and yeah, he does not even need double his stash to experiment, since one portion of his BTC stash pretty much provides his total required income (or his target level).

Since he has a decent amount of surplus, he could play around with portions of his surpluses, and he could even have 5-14 different stashes of bitcoin that are doing different things and each sub-stash might consist of 0.5 BTC to 3 BTC, and then he just plugs those substashes into various MSTR financial products and sees how those financial products perform for him and maybe even producing other cashflows that he feels that he might not be able to get with other financial instruments that he could invest into... One of the advantages of reaching past our goals is that we have options... and even if we might find some of those tools to be more risky or more costly than others, we might still want to have products in our holdings that pay out in differing kinds of ways.
Diversifying your investments is fine. Buying strategy is hardly that as the majority of their value is the bitcoin portfolio (something you already hold directly do yourself and can continue to albeit perhaps not with their potential leverage, but is leverage really what you're after?) now with their alternative activities constituting a small portion. If you want to redeploy actually redeploy into a more uncorrelated income stream.

You are likely correct that some of them are just more levered, and I don't give any shits about those - even though surely some guys were drawn to desires to get more levered in their bitcoin position.

The fact of the matter is that I am not really interested in any of the MSTR products at the moment, yet if there are guaranteed payments, then those could be ways to attempt to get some kinds of an assured income stream from bitcoin and have differing accounting and/or tax treatments as compared with our selling our BTC and or maybe borrowing against our bitcoin.. or maybe lending out our bitcoin.

I recall my participation in the MSTR thread, and some members pumping up those MSTR products as if they were superior to holding bitcoin, and even some members rolling their eyes at me when I was saying that I was participating in talking about the products, yet i was not buying any of those products... and part of my own rationale has been my presumptions that holding actual BTC is better - even though surely there were periods of time that guys could have had gotten multiples if not magnitudes of returns over bitcoin by entering and exiting various MSTR products  - and from my own perspective, bitcoin has been bery bery good to me.. and so I see no reason for myself to try to get returns that are better than returns that I have historically gotten or returns that are continuing to be likely to be coming to me (and anyone else who is in bitcoin or gets into bitcoin) merely by holding bitcoin and especially holding bitcoin in self-custodial kinds of ways.
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December 02, 2025, 03:34:26 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

90 on the menu

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December 02, 2025, 03:59:09 PM
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You are likely correct that some of them are just more levered, and I don't give any shits about those - even though surely some guys were drawn to desires to get more levered in their bitcoin position.

The fact of the matter is that I am not really interested in any of the MSTR products at the moment, yet if there are guaranteed payments, then those could be ways to attempt to get some kinds of an assured income stream from bitcoin and have differing accounting and/or tax treatments as compared with our selling our BTC and or maybe borrowing against our bitcoin.. or maybe lending out our bitcoin.

I recall my participation in the MSTR thread, and some members pumping up those MSTR products as if they were superior to holding bitcoin, and even some members rolling their eyes at me when I was saying that I was participating in talking about the products, yet i was not buying any of those products... and part of my own rationale has been my presumptions that holding actual BTC is better - even though surely there were periods of time that guys could have had gotten multiples if not magnitudes of returns over bitcoin by entering and exiting various MSTR products  - and from my own perspective, bitcoin has been bery bery good to me.. and so I see no reason for myself to try to get returns that are better than returns that I have historically gotten or returns that are continuing to be likely to be coming to me (and anyone else who is in bitcoin or gets into bitcoin) merely by holding bitcoin and especially holding bitcoin in self-custodial kinds of ways.

I understand your position but want to emphasize dividends are never guaranteed. Nothing ever is of course, nor are debt holders, but equity holders are literally paid LAST after everyone else. Preferred holders are only one step higher on the capital structure and as said both equity and preferred non-payments aren't even defaults and fully allowed.

Saying he guarantees such payments are just words and as best a declaration of intent.

And if you are/someone is looking for diversification this isn't it either because exactly when the bitcoin price is depressed it's most likely Strategy won't be able to pay.

For more "guaranteed" cash flows go higher up the capital structure. In general, the lower the risk the more guaranteed the cash flow is but the lower the return. Triple A short term US debt is likely the most guaranteed cash flow you can achieve (denoted in USD of course).

My advice? If you need income from your bitcoin sometimes sell a little (or spend it directly). Other sales and reinvestments are for diversification only and should be judged on the quality of the investment and correlation to your other investments, not whether or not it produces a cash flow (irrelevant). Again: unless you have tax reasons to deviate but that depends on where you live.
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December 02, 2025, 04:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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December 02, 2025, 04:54:42 PM

90 on the menu
It's here, let's go onward. Quantitative tightening is finally over, rate cut next week too.

I am hungry for 101
All aboard!
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Explanation
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December 02, 2025, 05:12:35 PM
Last edit: December 02, 2025, 06:22:18 PM by Shineup


This can be achievable and even more before this year runs out, already sighting $120k on the way .
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December 02, 2025, 05:41:56 PM

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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December 02, 2025, 05:50:17 PM

2018

** flashbacks intensify **
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December 02, 2025, 05:58:31 PM
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Meanwhile, we've debarted the whole monthly opening collapse. Psychotic, bipolar ants doing whatever crosses their little minds?
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May I ask for a brief TL;DR for those who weren't there to spectate in 2018? Asking for a few younger friends.
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Explanation
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December 02, 2025, 06:32:12 PM
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May I ask for a brief TL;DR for those who weren't there to spectate in 2018? Asking for a few younger friends.

Well, I brought up 2018 just kind of as a hip shot as one of the years that I really remembered the emergence of these chart formations where you would see a big up and then the price would stay at that level for a while and then mice suddenly equally back down. It could have been later years where that was more active. There were no big corporate players in Bitcoin at the time. It was just Bitcoin trading on the general host of somewhat shady exchanges that we have been using for so many years.But I seem to remember during that year we had more of these sort of whale moves in and out of the market, usually in the span of one to three days.

2018 was a bad year for the price of Bitcoin after having gone up to over $20,000 circa Nov 2017. I remember that the altcoins kind of continued a bull run after Bitcoin began unpacking its bags, so to speak.

I think that is the event that has most solidly reinforced the idea of "alt-season."

Currently, I don't think we see as many bart formations on the chart, just because of the magnitude of what it takes to move Bitcoin that much, and the fact that we probably are seeing more disciplined traders, many of whom are acting over the counter as well.

After I posted my little quip, I realized that I picked a year that could bring back some terrible memories for some. And I'm not implying that we are headed into a repeat of 2018, not at all. I would be surprised, honestly, but it wouldn't be the first time.

And ultimately, that is the question all of us are waiting to see resolve.

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December 02, 2025, 07:01:18 PM


Explanation
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December 02, 2025, 07:50:20 PM
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ChatGPT is currently offline! Productivity will be at record lows today!

On the other hand... Hopefully we will get some original post here on WO  Wink Cheesy Cheesy
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December 02, 2025, 07:51:42 PM

Meanwhile, we've debarted the whole monthly opening collapse. Psychotic, bipolar ants doing whatever crosses their little minds?

either i did very well or purchased way too fast.
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December 02, 2025, 07:53:26 PM
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This pipe ain't no stainless steel.
Pepper your anus!

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December 02, 2025, 07:55:34 PM
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I'm moving away from posting detailed math explanations on Wordpress and posting brief updates and new charts on Substack.
https://substack.com/@michaelrobinson127536
Since the cycle is past the top and now we're in bear territory, I've been working on getting the algo to generate a buy signal; i.e., identify the capitulations.  You'd expect bottoms to come a half cycle after the tops, but they're actually a quarter cycle out of phase, weirdly.  I don't have an explanation for that.  I'm just proceeding empirically and going with it.
The substack post titled "BTC buy and sell signals" has a chart showing the backtest of the new buy signal generator.
The chart in the "BTC capitulation signal" post is from a spreadsheet that estimates the time of the next capitulation.
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