Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Probably not... since you are fantasizing rather than willing to put money behind your pie in the sky thoughts.

-=>>>>>>I didn't want to, but I'll answer you.,!

 You have already assumed that you are not here to help neither me nor anyone else,

No need to assume anything.

Hopefully, through your chosen participation in this forum/thread you are able to figure out ways to help yourself without relying on other members to "be nice" to you or to your frequent seemingly stream of conscious posts.

although I agree with your DCA method.,/ you have already lost your bet, because,

You are referring to my bet with LFC?

Or an anticipated bet with you?

If you are so sure about your nonsensical assertion, then put some money on it.

I read your proposition to be that sub $70k is coming in January or perhaps soon thereafter. 

January is not here yet and as I type this post the price is bouncing between $91k and $92k.

in case you don't know, there are sub cycles, and not just a 4-year cycle,

Pray tell.

What are these "sub cycles" that you envision?  Do they guarantee certain price levels within certain timelines?  or how do they work in ways that would be informative to me? and perhaps to the other admitted (or not admitted) dummies^** in this here thread?

**not that I am trying to play upon the Royal "we" here.

if you analyze it well, btc has an annual cycle, and new highs, only from August 2026, which may not be so new highs.

Huh?  As far as I can tell, we are in early December 2025, so 2026 has not happened yet...

We had right around 4 breaks into ATH during 2025..   something like this: 1) January $109k, 2) May $112k  3) July $123k and 4) October $126k

So, if I were you, I would already pay your lost bet

Oh?   You are referring to my bet with LFC.

yes.  There is still 4 more months for that to play out...   Will $126,272 be broken or not by the end of March. 

Still to be found out.

Are the odds against it?  Surely, the odds are not seeming as good as they were in around late October when the bet was confirmed.
 

and stop trolling the people who are here without the objective of trolling anyone,,

 What the fuck are you talking about?  You think that I am trolling you and that you are making meaningful posts? 

Half of your posts, if not more, are quite difficult to discern, so I could hardly be trolling you when you are frequently posting vague baloney and perhaps not even generated from your own thinking, to the extent that you might have some thinking deep down on the inside.

and yes, do your trolling service with those who are trolling, I agree with your professionalism in trolling those who need it.,

To the extent hat you are able to stay consistent in anything, I am glad that you approve my trolling of "the deserving"..   

-One more thing for you: The Moon is almost full, and after the full moon comes the waning moon!
 

 Jupiter9?  Is that you?

The approximate distance from Earth to the Moon is 359,656 km and 2.1 days left to the next phase (Full Moon).

Did you get those cartoons from Grandma's approved list?

Good boy!!!!  Grandma will be proud of you.
 

>>>Warning!!!

.... It is also likely a rebounce between 100~110, when this happens, don't come all cheerful and say that the price will reach a new high before the end of your bet, because it won't be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Could be that the price bounces above $100k and then comes back down.  I am not going to proclaim to know.  I usually suggest to prepare for either direction in the BTC, and frequently (and historically) guys have not tended to prepare enough for up... so if you are one of those, you might need to snap to it... for your own good.  It is likely not a good thing if you are staying a low coiner or a no coiner - since you have already been registered here for more than 7 years.. and if you don't have hardly shit to show for your time on the forum, then you better snap-a-doodle and make hay while the sun is shining.

Cornz do not stack themselves.  It tends to take years and years and years to build up a decent bitcoin stash, especially for folks who are not ready, willing and able to stay focused on their ongoing stacking... which seems to be part of your problem.
 

-There's also news going on today, that Saylor will make his BTCs available for rent... I have links, but I won't let them. because I don't trust...

Good.  At least you spared "us"^** from some of your poor information sources.

**Royal for sure this time.

[Tonimez]

-There's also news going on today, that Saylor will make his BTCs available for rent... I have links, but I won't let them. because I don't trust...

You only succeeded in making me doubt what I knew before reading this. Saylor is not such a faint hearted gambler I guess. I would have Also loved to see your source, maybe it could be convincing.

Strategy has never sold a bitcoin since 2020 when it started accumulating bitcoin and they still don't look ready to sell. Their over 600k Bitcoin remains intact.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I don't know if it's been mentioned here yet, but it seems Vanguard has finally bent the knee to Bitcoin.
(or at least the bullshit derivatives that the big boys are using in part to control the price. But you know...)

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025120267/vanguard-finally-dips-a-toe-into-crypto-waters-as-bitcoins-bounce-goes-past-91000

The Morningstar reference link is not working, but here (below) is the basic information:

Vanguard has officially opened its brokerage platform to crypto ETFs, allowing clients to buy products like BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Wise Origin spot Bitcoin Fund ETF (FBTC), as well as ETFs tied to Ethereum and Ripple. However, Vanguard has no plans to launch its own crypto funds.

Key Takeaways from the MarketWatch Report:

• Historic shift: Vanguard, long resistant to crypto, is now permitting clients to trade third-party crypto ETFs and mutual funds on its platform.

• Available products: Investors can now access Bitcoin ETFs (like IBIT and FBTC) and funds tied to Ethereum and Ripple.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed - however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt. Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue, yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply. Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

[ESG]

~~~~

You only succeeded in making me doubt what I knew before reading this. Saylor is not such a faint hearted gambler I guess. I would have Also loved to see your source, maybe it could be convincing.

Strategy has never sold a bitcoin since 2020 when it started accumulating bitcoin and they still don't look ready to sell. Their over 600k Bitcoin remains intact.

-I really prefer not to show the sources, because as I said, I still don't believe it, let's wait for more information... For now they are rumors, I didn't say that he will sell, but he will make it available for rent, to make an extra... But again, I don't believe so, I'm not going to put links, if I had been confirmed, yes I would put the link.


...

-I went back there to quote the part that you said that you have no obligation to help me or help anyone, and left only the part that you have no obligation to help me...
...

-Almost All of your posts are provocative with the intent of endless ongoing discussion, because in most cases, you want to discuss anything just because you want keep  to be discussing anything....
...
 --I like this bar here, CBuddy the bar owner every hour shows us the buying and selling volume of bitstamp(order book Overview), and random discussions about btc, which entertain me, including answering you, a great entertainment..,
...
-Also, you're not wrong in saying that I'm here to say nonsense, I even have good ideas to post in some threads here, which maybe they're even waiting for me to do that, and I can say that they're saved here, in .txt, but, I don't know, this merit business as it is, really doesn't please me very much, And if I keep participating, I think they will think that I am looking for this, since here within my being, I do not long for this, and yes, for me it is much easier for me to come here and write anything, and soon comes a wave of posts that make what I write here disappear quickly, And I like that, I even prefer that no one reads what I write....
...
 ...well, if you liked the cuts of the 'MAD' cartoon I made, then surely my grandma would like it too.

...

---Well, after having written a few more nonsense things here, let's get to what interests you.

                                                             >>>>

~~~

Or an anticipated bet with you?

If you are so sure about your nonsensical assertion, then put some money on it.

I read your proposition to be that sub $70k is coming in January or perhaps soon thereafter. 

>>>
___________________________> So okay, I'm a 'lowcoiner', and I'm willing to bet you no more than 30k SAT on this,, that by the end of February the price of bitcoin will hit 70k, as I'm not trustworthy of you, so I'm willing to send you in advance these 30k Sats to be confirmed, and if I lose, You can keep it to yourself, and if I win, you send me back and send me another 30k SAT and I'm also willing to leave it on the open table, if anyone else wants to join the amount both against both in favor of my proposal and the part that wins divides the total amount. Can it be? If so, you can send the address, and I'll arrange the changes here for this amount to reach you, and if you want to scam, feel free, I've already lost a lot of BTC on the internet, and it won't be 30k anymore that will shake me.

(....These 30k SAT are symbolic, just to satisfy your desire to bet.... If by then I'm alive, and end up winning, before sending me try to confirm with me if I'm alive, if I don't answer, you can keep it to yourself... and in any case, if there is any suspicion that my account has been hacked, I can send you a simplex link, in advance, for you to confirm before sending me the 60k, of course if I win...)

[philipma1957]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed - however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt. Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue, yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply. Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

eventually this will be an issue. but i suspect it is 20 to 32 years away.

a block is 92x3.125=. 287.5k which basically works for large miners.

so 200x1.5625= $312.5k which would work   so the hope is as before price does go to the correct point ie 180-220k to support mining

thus with rounding

200k 2028
400k 2032
800k 2036
1.6m 2040
3.2m 2044.     all could happen if they do not  well then they don’t happen and miners reduce gear.

i figure i am 68 , 69 in a month  so by 2044 i am 87 and very likely to not give a fuck

if you are 25 not 68 or 69 maybe there are issues in the 2044 to 2048 to 2052 to 2056 1/2ings

since

3.2 m in 2044
6.4 m. in 2048
12.8 m in 2052
25.6 m in 2056 i will be 99

i have to think the dollar will be worth much less than it is by 2056. so the 25.6 mill in 2056 is maybe a few million now

my childhood home built in 1956 for 25k is now 1,300,000

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed - however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt. Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue, yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply. Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

eventually this will be an issue. but i suspect it is 20 to 32 years away.

a block is 92x3.125=. 287.5k which basically works for large miners.

so 200x1.5625= $312.5k which would work   so the hope is as before price does go to the correct point ie 180-220k to support mining

thus with rounding

200k 2028
400k 2032
800k 2036
1.6m 2040
3.2m 2044.     all could happen if they do not  well then they don’t happen and miners reduce gear.

i figure i am 68 , 69 in a month  so by 2044 i am 87 and very likely to not give a fuck

if you are 25 not 68 or 69 maybe there are issues in the 2044 to 2048 to 2052 to 2056 1/2ings

since

3.2 m in 2044
6.4 m. in 2048
12.8 m in 2052
25.6 m in 2056 i will be 99

i have to think the dollar will be worth much less than it is by 2056. so the 25.6 mill in 2056 is maybe a few million now

my childhood home built in 1956 for 25k is now 1,300,000

Thanks for that, Phil. I see what you mean by how certain price ranges still 'works for large miners' after 'halvings'.

I'm curious, with your age being 68 and I think you've said you're retired now, what type of work/career were you involved in during the past 3-4 decades?      

[JayJuanGee]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

Yes.  When the BIG miners leave, then difficulty adjusts downward...every 2 weeks.

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed

Yes.. the new issuance is cut by half, so instead of 450 newly issued coins per day, there will be 225 newly issued coins per day. The existing supply is still out there, to the extent that people remember their keys.

- however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price

Hash rate does not dictate price.

would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt.

Miners already tend to sell most of their coins... So what.. If they are not profitable, then they quit like you mentioned, and the diffiuclty adjust downward.

We already had about 50% of the hashrate disappear in a quick time in 2021, and what happened to the BTC price in 2021?

You think you are coming up with some innovative ideas?

Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

Supply issuance does not go lower based on the number of miners...

Sure new supply is cut in half every 4 years, but that is already known and the supply is not changed based on a bunch of pussy miners.. if that were to end up being the case that many of them decide to leave.
 

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue,

The price might double too, so it is a wash.  We have already had 4 previous halvenings... You think this one is going to be different?

yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply.

Huh?  Bitcoin's supply based on halvening and issuance is already known..,. and people lose keys, so that loss of keys reduces supply too...

Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

Scarcity is increasing.. except to the extent that your twat buddies are issuing their own coins (or faking their own coins), even though they might well get caught in their shenanigans just like SBF (and some of the other manipulators) ended up getting caught.

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

The unknowns are the fucktwat manipulators not the miners.  You don't seem to know bitcoin well enough or the difficulty adjustment in order to attribute its weakness to mining rather than the third party fucktwats... including governments who will probably in on the manipulation, like they tried with SBF, but it did not work out very well for them in that manipulation attempt, so maybe the various manipulators learned how to try to fuck people over in more sophisticated ways this time around.

[BTCETFInvestor]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

Yes.  When the BIG miners leave, then difficulty adjusts downward...every 2 weeks.

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed

Yes.. the new issuance is cut by half, so instead of 450 newly issued coins per day, there will be 225 newly issued coins per day. The existing supply is still out there, to the extent that people remember their keys.

- however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price

Hash rate does not dictate price.

would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt.

Miners already tend to sell most of their coins... So what.. If they are not profitable, then they quit like you mentioned, and the diffiuclty adjust downward.

We already had about 50% of the hashrate disappear in a quick time in 2021, and what happened to the BTC price in 2021?

You think you are coming up with some innovative ideas?

Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

Supply issuance does not go lower based on the number of miners...

Sure new supply is cut in half every 4 years, but that is already known and the supply is not changed based on a bunch of pussy miners.. if that were to end up being the case that many of them decide to leave.
 

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue,

The price might double too, so it is a wash.  We have already had 4 previous halvenings... You think this one is going to be different?

yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply.

Huh?  Bitcoin's supply based on halvening and issuance is already known..,. and people lose keys, so that loss of keys reduces supply too...

Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

Scarcity is increasing.. except to the extent that your twat buddies are issuing their own coins (or faking their own coins), even though they might well get caught in their shenanigans just like SBF (and some of the other manipulators) ended up getting caught.

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

The unknowns are the fucktwat manipulators not the miners.  You don't seem to know bitcoin well enough or the difficulty adjustment in order to attribute its weakness to mining rather than the third party fucktwats... including governments who will probably in on the manipulation, like they tried with SBF, but it did not work out very well for them in that manipulation attempt, so maybe the various manipulators learned how to try to fuck people over in more sophisticated ways this time around.

JJG - Thanks for your feedback. I appreciate it... 

[JayJuanGee]

-I went back there to quote the part that you said that you have no obligation to help me or help anyone, and left only the part that you have no obligation to help me...

Why would I or any other member have any obligation to help you?

What are your obligation in this? 

You don't have any?

You can just spout out nonsense fantasies at your whim?

-Almost All of your posts are provocative with the intent of endless ongoing discussion, because in most cases, you want to discuss anything just because you want keep  to be discussing anything....

You make a lot of sense...

NOT.

--I like this bar here, CBuddy the bar owner every hour shows us the buying and selling volume of bitstamp(order book Overview), and random discussions about btc, which entertain me, including answering you, a great entertainment..,

Sure, you would be entertained by chart buddy.

-Also, you're not wrong in saying that I'm here to say nonsense, I even have good ideas to post in some threads here, which maybe they're even waiting for me to do that,

Well.  Some guys here might fall of their chairs (if they have any chairs) in the event that you actually posted something that is informative and/or helpful... and not just a seemingly random piece of stream of consciousness.

and I can say that they're saved here, in .txt, but, I don't know, this merit business as it is, really doesn't please me very much,

Poor lil fello.

You are getting ur selfie enuff merits?

I wonder why?

And if I keep participating, I think they will think that I am looking for this,

Maybe the forum should implement negative merits, just for you?

since here within my being, I do not long for this, and yes, for me it is much easier for me to come here and write anything, and soon comes a wave of posts that make what I write here disappear quickly, And I like that, I even prefer that no one reads what I write....
... ...well, if you liked the cuts of the 'MAD' cartoon I made, then surely my grandma would like it too.

Maybe grandma should slip some Melatonin or perhaps Ritain into your cookies and milk to help to put you into sleepie sleep zone?

...---Well, after having written a few more nonsense things here, let's get to what interests you.
                                                        >>>>

~~~Or an anticipated bet with you?
If you are so sure about your nonsensical assertion, then put some money on it.

I read your proposition to be that sub $70k is coming in January or perhaps soon thereafter. 

>>___________________________> So okay, I'm a 'lowcoiner', and I'm willing to bet you no more than 30k SAT on this,, that by the end of February the price of bitcoin will hit 70k, as I'm not trustworthy of you, so I'm willing to send you in advance these 30k Sats to be confirmed,

Maybe we can find a willing and mutually agreeable escrow agent?

and if I lose, You can keep it to yourself, and if I win, you send me back and send me another 30k SAT and I'm also willing to leave it on the open table, if anyone else wants to join the amount both against both in favor of my proposal and the part that wins divides the total amount. Can it be?

Yeah.. maybe we could do this... it is a small amount, but there might be some ways to do it (maybe add a bit for sending fees.. that is if we might be able to find someone to escrow for free.  It does not feel right for me to accept 30k satoshis prior to the closing of the bet since I would be a participant in the bet.

If so, you can send the address, and I'll arrange the changes here for this amount to reach you, and if you want to scam, feel free, I've already lost a lot of BTC on the internet, and it won't be 30k anymore that will shake me.

I am not going to scam.. but we might be able to find someone willing to do it and just cover the transaction fees... perhaps?  It would close by the end of February, so it is not a very long time to wait.

(....These 30k SAT are symbolic, just to satisfy your desire to bet....

You are adamant about the price going below $70k by the end of February... which I doubt is going to happen..

Sure it is not impossible, but it is something that seems bettable.

If by then I'm alive, and end up winning, before sending me try to confirm with me if I'm alive, if I don't answer, you can keep it to yourself... and in any case, if there is any suspicion that my account has been hacked, I can send you a simplex link, in advance, for you to confirm before sending me the 60k, of course if I win...)

You could appoint a designated heir in the event of your death or incapacitation prior to the close date of the bet and in the event that lady luck is on your side in regards to your nonsense price-related fantasy... Sure. You are not the ONLY one with such fantasies about the BTC price dropping below $70k, and there does seem to be various banks getting involved in BTC price manipulations in recent times... so that could potentially help you out in regards to winning such bet.. Perhaps? perhaps?  I have my doubts, that is why it seems bettable. 

Yeah, it is not a sure bet on my end either, but you are the one proclaiming sub $70k as if it were a given. You might get lucky.. perhaps? perhaps?

[philipma1957]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed - however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt. Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue, yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply. Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

eventually this will be an issue. but i suspect it is 20 to 32 years away.

a block is 92x3.125=. 287.5k which basically works for large miners.

so 200x1.5625= $312.5k which would work   so the hope is as before price does go to the correct point ie 180-220k to support mining

thus with rounding

200k 2028
400k 2032
800k 2036
1.6m 2040
3.2m 2044.     all could happen if they do not  well then they don’t happen and miners reduce gear.

i figure i am 68 , 69 in a month  so by 2044 i am 87 and very likely to not give a fuck

if you are 25 not 68 or 69 maybe there are issues in the 2044 to 2048 to 2052 to 2056 1/2ings

since

3.2 m in 2044
6.4 m. in 2048
12.8 m in 2052
25.6 m in 2056 i will be 99

i have to think the dollar will be worth much less than it is by 2056. so the 25.6 mill in 2056 is maybe a few million now

my childhood home built in 1956 for 25k is now 1,300,000

Thanks for that, Phil. I see what you mean by how certain price ranges still 'works for large miners' after 'halvings'.

I'm curious, with your age being 68 and I think you've said you're retired now, what type of work/career were you involved in during the past 3-4 decades?      

USN DP2  which is Data Processing petty officer 2 class  which is like a Sergeant in the marines

Then accounting and IT as a civilian

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

What happens to the price of Bitcoin if large Bitcoin miners stop mining beyond the next expected 'halving' in the Spring of 2028 when the halving cuts the block reward in half again? If rewards no longer cover costs, isn't it almost a certainty that some large miners will shut off rigs or sell holdings to cover losses and pay debt?

I realize that the 'halving' reduces new‑coin issuance by half, and that tends to increase scarcity, which is what's needed - however if many large miners shut down their operation because rewards no longer cover costs, the immediate effect on price would likely be downward pressure, especially if miners must sell to cover debt. Though on the other hand it seems logical that a degree of upward pressure is a possibility if demand holds while supply issuance stays lower.

It appears that when the next 'halving' cuts the block reward in half again it will directly reduce new‑coin issuance and reduce miner revenue, yet the 'halving' is actually the core mechanism that creates scarcity in Bitcoin’s supply. Bitcoin's scarcity needs to increase, not diminish...to increase the price...

The 'what if' outcome is difficult to predict. Is it a real concern if large miners start throwing in the towel at, or before, the next 'halving'? What's your view about this?    

eventually this will be an issue. but i suspect it is 20 to 32 years away.

a block is 92x3.125=. 287.5k which basically works for large miners.

so 200x1.5625= $312.5k which would work   so the hope is as before price does go to the correct point ie 180-220k to support mining

thus with rounding

200k 2028
400k 2032
800k 2036
1.6m 2040
3.2m 2044.     all could happen if they do not  well then they don’t happen and miners reduce gear.

i figure i am 68 , 69 in a month  so by 2044 i am 87 and very likely to not give a fuck

if you are 25 not 68 or 69 maybe there are issues in the 2044 to 2048 to 2052 to 2056 1/2ings

since

3.2 m in 2044
6.4 m. in 2048
12.8 m in 2052
25.6 m in 2056 i will be 99

i have to think the dollar will be worth much less than it is by 2056. so the 25.6 mill in 2056 is maybe a few million now

my childhood home built in 1956 for 25k is now 1,300,000

Thanks for that, Phil. I see what you mean by how certain price ranges still 'works for large miners' after 'halvings'.

I'm curious, with your age being 68 and I think you've said you're retired now, what type of work/career were you involved in during the past 3-4 decades?      

USN DP2  which is Data Processing petty officer 2 class  which is like a Sergeant in the marines

Then accounting and IT as a civilian

Nice! And, thank you for your service...    Large accounting firm, boutique firm, government, public company or private?  That's a taxing profession!  

[ESG]

...................
Maybe we can find a willing and mutually agreeable escrow agent?
................
Yeah.. maybe we could do this... it is a small amount, but there might be some ways to do it (maybe add a bit for sending fees........
......................


---It would close by the end of February, so it is not a very long time to wait..--


Yeah, it is not a sure bet on my end either, but you are the one proclaiming sub $70k as if it were a given. You might get lucky.. perhaps? perhaps?

-My dear TrollMaster, I'm not in the position to choose someone, so I thought I'd be yourself, but in case, where you don't want to take my share, you can choose who will stay. But it needs to be for yesterday., I had already told you before, when BTC was above 100k that it could reach 80k, and it was launched, for a very short time, and I see this as a sign that you can win. but I still believe in the possibility of another wave... my chances are much lower than yours... So I'm willing to lose, but in order for me to lose, I'm depending on you to find the person who will hold the sats So, if that's missing, then that's no longer in my reach, otherwise, I'm waiting for the address so I can send.... and 30+1k sat is ok to cover fees?, i send 31 , no problem...just simbolic number to bet...
____________________________________

>>(As for me, if it is within my reach to be able to help, I help, but if it is to hinder, this is not in my reach. When the person is not to help, is he to harm?)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

Hey Bros. Just checking in. I'm still alive. I know I'm alive because I can still do the captcha...
Hope yawl had a great TG with no weird Uncles. (like me)
I started scanning back from my last post and even sprayed a couple of merits here and there and then I was like... fuck that.
To much scrolling and reading for my phone swiping, corrupted, 30 second attention span brain.
Besides, a month ago is ancient history and I cant read the last three million pages months worth of this here famous thread.
I bought the dip anyway.
That is all. Always lurking... (maybe twerking...)

Keep that rhythm alive...

napkin live ref recording. No AI. No auto tune
https://soundcloud.com/sirazimuth/nochopsticks9

 GO BITCOIN




This Ride

[Biodom]

(maybe twerking...)

Keep that rhythm alive...

hey, as long as it was 'productive', lol.

EDIT: 93ish