To me, bitcoin going down 30-32% simply predicts the fate of the stock market in the next 2-4 mo: probably 10-15% down, but could be even 20%.
I raised a bit of cash, but I already had some even before.
Overall, high Shiller's CAPE (39.2 now, was 41 before) indicates that either a top is close or a top is just a few short months away.
After that, maybe a few years (up to a decade) of low returns (a la 2000-2010) with wild gyrations.
Of course, if markets would drop 30-50%, they would be a buy.
Bitcoin could become counter-cyclical, though.
Sure bitcoin is more liquid, so it has been inclining itself towards being a leading indicator in various macro scenarios - though we might not be able to determine in advance any kind of specific performance, even if we might identify some correlation when we might look at it (bitcoin) as a leading indicator.
For example, the fact that bitcoin had been crashing more in recent times might give it more room to return back to its previous levels, and stocks and/or other assets (including gold) could end up staying more stagnant, relatively speaking. Surely in recent times gold has also been getting quite a bit of attention in regards to its own sussing out of uncertainties in the market and then some gravitation of governments into gold, which then contributes to some retail contagion.
Your proclamation that bitcoin could become counter-cyclical just shows that you are arguing out of both sides of your mouth - and maybe in the end, some of "us" could end up interpreting you as proclaming that bitcoin is not necessarily correlated to various traditional assets even though in the short-term we have some correlation.. but in the longer term (and broader picture) bitcoin is not really as correlated as it seems to be.
By the way, all of us, likely recognize and appreciate that bitcoin can go through relatively long periods of seeming correlation, amnd then all of a sudden "poof," it has just done a bit of an UPpity stair-steppening. .and we might not be sure in regards to the extent to which earlier prices might be revisited, yet in the ,longer term we can zoom back and recognize that there were many points in bitcoin's price history that a stair-steppening occurred and it might have taken a few years before we could start to feel comfort that prices lower than the stair-steppening would not occur any more...
I could give some examples - yet some of the examples are more clear than others and sometimes, there would be some semblance of a revisiting some vicinity of the bouncing off point.. but really not quite getting there or the bottom and bouncing off point becomes a bit convoluted.. and so these kinds of times can get excitement of bears and bitcoin naysayers while ending up not really going back to earlier bouncing off prices as the bears (and the bitcoin naysayers) were anticipating to be within reasonable and plausible cards...
O.k... I will venture some numbers and dates: Our move up to $500 in late 2015 and then our move up to $1k in early 2017 and then our move up to $3k in late 2017 and our move up to $20k in late 2020 (even though that $20k was revisited and even breached for several months from June 2022 until March 2023). Future stairsteppings of dee cornz are still to be found out, yet I get the sense that our move from $27k to $50k in late 2023 and into early 2024 ended up being our most recent confirmed stair-steppening.. I also get the sense that we could go through another stair-steppening in the near future (even though it is seeming that we are falling outside of the cycle for such). yet part of the problem is that it sometimes can take a couple years or more in order to start to really get a sense of confirmation that such stair-steppening had ended up creating some semblance of a floor at the lower parts of the bouncing off point... meaning that the bottom keeps moving up and the possibilities of how low of bottoms are possible keeps moving up (in bitcoin many times, so far) having some synchronicity (not exact) with the 200-WMA).
I wonder how Proudhan is doing.
Probably living happily ever after.
I would expect so, yes.
But I'm curious if he's getting that itch to come tell us that it's over, that it's finally completely over.
I agree. This would be a good time for proudhon to chime in, since there seem to be a lot (more than usual, perhaps?) of current bitcoin doubters. Yet, I am wondering if he might not be well since there have been other opportunities for him to troll us in the last couple of years, yet he has not posted since March 2024, even though
his profile shows that he was active in April 2025..
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