[edited out]
We kind of Did a shallow wave pattern
90/100 dec 2024
90/100 Jan 2025
75/85. April 2025
110/120 July 2025
90/100 sept 2025
110/120 oct 2025
85/95. Dec 2025
One could argue it was sideways.Yes. You have repeatedly argued that bitcoin has been sideways for the last year-ish, which seems to gloss over our 4 ATHs that took place in 2025 - even though they were not very BIG ones. Jan. $109k, May $112k, July $123k and October $126k.
If you look at gold from 1992 to 2003
Bitcoin is not even close to gold, even if the powers that be might be trying to figure out if there are ways to paperly manipulate bitcoin in similar ways as they had been somewhat successful in manipulating gold.
We locked into 200-400 slot for around 10 years
Could we be in a 70-130k slot for years to come?
Could be. But might not be, also.
This would kill off the 4 cycle for btc price
So? Even if cycle theory had been dominating bitcoin, it may well end up evolving out of cycle theory.. at least to some extent, even though the new issuance of coins remains a bit of an ongoing factor, since miners still seem to love the subsidy rewards that are still of a significantly meaningful size.
And would make the 2028 1/2 the most important 1/2ing ever.
Why such drama?
At og you need to be wrong on the 4 year .
But you could be correct
OG loves to act like he knows more than he does - and that he is smarter than everyone else. .. Sure, he could be right, this time, and perhaps so far he has been right on his attempt to trade it. He thought that he was correct in 2017, too.. yet he ended up selling way too much too soon, and yeah, that is what happens to traders in this kind of an asset. They are so focused on earning dollars that they end up with way fewer bitcoin than what they could have had.. which surely makes a difference for guys from back in the 2011 time frame who were able to mostly hang onto their coins (in the neighborhood of 200 to 500 or more coins) versus those guys who likely ended up with way fewer than 50 coins. .. Sure 50 coins is still a decent quantity of coins, yet some guys who trade (and gamble), they will likely have challenges to hang onto the coins that they have because they have difficulties managing their stash in ways that do not involve trading (gambling).
Bitcoin is a unique (paradigm shifting) asset class that is still in its s-curve exponential adoption phase, and yeah, there seem to be subliminal battles going on to try to control bitcoin.
I doubt that bitcoin follows traditional definitions of bear/bull markets (business cycle).
However, in a volatile market like bitcoin used to be, 20% decline was not a true measure because it occurred on a weekly or even daily basis, with recoveries just as fast.
Exactly!!!! We have already seen those levels of corrections (and even greater) in bitcoin's history, and those levels of corrections did not necessarily convert bitcoin into a bear market.
So, although 25%/2 mo is not a canonical definition, it has a shot at being true.
Personally, once we went below 101K (also a 50d MA), I considered it a local bear.
Get out of here with that "local bear" nonsense. Local bear. You want to create your own definitions in order to try to get away from the idea that we are either in a bear or a bull.. we cannot be in both at the same time, yet you want to have a "local bear" so that we can have both a bear and a bull at the same time? Even if there might be some abilities to figure out what that "local bear" thingie-ma-jiggie is, isn't it a wee bit meaningless in terms of it jumbling up definitions?
If we are in a true bear, it is likely that we would travel to the 100-103K area and then Mr. market would make a decision of down.
If we are not in a true year-long bear, then we would puncture 100-103K on the upside (with or without some hesitation).
I would imagine that we are in a bear when the odds for down become greater than the odds for up - even though surely there can be some temporary fake outs - so if we were in a bear, then (like you mentioned) we still could have a dead cat bounce to supra $100k territories before breaking back down...
Part of the problem is that we don't really know in advance, even though if we can somewhat assess whether we are in a bear or in a bull, then we have some framework upon how to see the market status.. and yeah it seems that if upward momentum takes us above $103k and then maybe even to $108k, then there might be some difficulties changing the upward momentum if it were to return to that level.. so the momentum could contribute to the new reality (like a self-fulfilling prophecy, no?).
We likely also realize that from time to time, there can be some underlying forces that come into play (whether they are playing fairly or not) to perhaps put a lot of effort to keep the BTC price within a certain range, to the extent that they are able to be successful in accomplishing such. So we might conclude that all is working in our favor, and then there could be some strong force to change the momentum that may or may not end up being successful The force may or may not be knowable by the market (even though the tactics might be known by some parts of the market, in advance).
I'm baffled if anybody still believes that this is a bear market.
What we have is one major beartrap.
Do they even watch indicators?
Bitcoin will explode in 2026.
It is a baby bear, as Biodom would like to come up with some fancy way of letting us know where we are at.
I'm baffled if anybody still believes that this is a bear market.
What we have is one major beartrap.
Do they even watch indicators?
Bitcoin will explode in 2026.
If you were paying attention and sold before the bear, it isn’t a bear trap. It is a buying opportunity. One man’s down 30% is another man’s up 15%. Just depends how you played the last 90 days…
If you are retarded, you fuck around trading and acting as if you are smarter than everyone else. Maybe it will work for you and maybe not?
There are plenty of reasonable who choose not to fuck around with their investment, which means that you don't need to trade/gamble with bitcoin in order to profit from it..
Think about if you had not been half retarded and if you merely accumulated bitcoin and perhaps just shaved off bitcoin slowly, you probably would have 100s of bitcoin right now. Instead you have not learned your lesson from your past behaviors and you are still gambling with your bitcoin.
In other words, if some guys have average costs per BTC that are less than $1k (which surely you could have had easily been part of that kind of a group), then why would they give too many shits in regards to if they are up 126x or 80x? or right now 91x? The amounts of ups and downs are not as BIG of a deal as your know-it-all smart ass trying to make it out as being.
Even though you have been retarded in your building up of your bitcoin stash (and likely poor management of your bitcoin) newer guys are not going to be advantaged by fucking around with following your nonsense and trading their bitcoin rather than just ongoingly buying bitcoin... so even a guy who had been continuing to buy $200 per week in the past 8-ish years, he would have had invested right around $84k and he would have right around 5.53 BTC right now, so it seems that such an ongoing buyer of bitcoin would have had put himself into quite a good position, even if he had ongoingly been buying, and probably in way better of a position as compared with guys like you who are fucking around trading and acting as if they are smarter than everyone else.
I STACKED for 2025.
I will stack for 2026.
My LLC partnership is dissolved.
And the assets are distributed.
So for 2026 my choices are more mine own.
I will be stacking this year.
My goal is adding 0.33 to 0.50btc based on current price of corn.
Of course, you can project out your anticipated stacking amounts based on both your anticipation of how much money you will have available for each month (or whatever is your buying increments) of the year and also for what you believe the price of BTC will be for each of those timelines. You are correct to have a decently broad range when you have two variables (even though you might know your budget better than you know what the BTC price is going to be - even though you can even estimate the unknowns).
By the way, since you are somewhat elderly, from my perspective, if you are inspiring to be an investor rather than a trader, you are allowed a shorter timeline, such as 4 years as a minimum that runs from each of your bitcoin buys. Of course, if there is an emergency, you could draw down your holdings in less than 4 years; however, I doubt that you are really planning to lock up any of your new buys for at least 4 years.
That would put you at 72 years old by the time that you would be authorized to draw upon the more recent bitcoin buys, even though surely you have some earlier bitcoin buys that would come available earlier since had made them in the past. I am not trying to chide you, since I post my ideas in generally applicability senses which I would have concerns for anyone who is getting into their upper 60s and if they are still accumulating bitcoin, even though surely there are guys who might be new to bitcoin and who might have other sources of income (investments) so they may well have luxuries of having other places that they can draw money that allows them to continue to have at least a 4 year timeline.
I question whether you (Phil) even have any bitcoin buys that are older than 4 years, currently... and sure, if you did, then those bitcoin would already be eligible for meeting the minimum holding timeline for a bitcoin investor (of course, from my own perspective that 4 years is the minimum for bitcoin to be an investor rather than a trader).
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