I will own more BTC at the end of this year than I do now. Will you?
I don’t ever have to sell another satoshi. Do you?
Want to be a real Bitcoin bull instead of pretending? Maybe you should start off by being a net accumulator instead of planning to live the rest of your life as a leech on the Bitcoin market.
Trying to go off topic a bit, because I like this particular point:
If you dont have to sell another satoshi, why accumulate more?
When is the time to spend your money? I hope you are not waiting until you are in your 60s or 70s to spend it.
Because dying with all those bitcoins is just silly. Spending money is also an important point of lofe: money is a tool that can maximize our happiness and comfort and allow us to have amazing experiences
I think the withdrawal tool can be used as a guide in such direction
In my own part of the world, 60 years is the official retirement age of every civil servant and some funds are deducted from the beginning of your career until you're 60 after which you are meant to start recieving your pension which was saved up. This too reflects bitcoin acculturation and HODLing until you are 60 years old. So it is not late to start spending at 60 because no one knows how soon he will die neither does anyone know how long he would stay. If you leave for 90 years, you spend for 30 years and if you have been actively spending without accumulation for the period of 30 years (let's use this
@JJG's illustration using the 42.3BTC as a yardstick). If you spend $200k annually, from the age of 60, you would exhaust the entire stash in little less than 19 years (assuming bitcoin remains at $89k).
My system does not assume that the BTC price stays flat, and it assumes that on average the 200-WMA moves up at least 7% per year, and if the 200-WMA stops moving up at least 7% per year, then you can make downward adjustments to your withdrawal rate to try to keep it sustainable.
So if you had not read various assertions that I make is that you can withdraw at the rate that is then justified, and then you can also give yourself a 7% raise each year, so even if we start out at $200k on year 1, then year 2 would be $214k, then year 3 would be $229k, and then year 4 would be $245k, etc etc etc..
You are thinking about bitcoin wrong and sustainable withdrawal ideas wrong if you are thinking that you deplete the whole stash and principle, and in traditional assets it is presumed that you can withdraw 4% per year of the asset, which is also sustainable if on average the asset is appreciating at least 4% per year.
So the idea of sustainable withdrawal is that the asset is appreciating at a rate that is greater than the amount being withdrawn, so with the earlier example, of withdrawing $200k from 42.3 BTC, the assumption is that on average the 42.3 BTC is appreciating in value, and i am using the 200-WMA for valuation since the 200-WMA mostly represents a bottom price and BTC's spot price tends to be greater than 25% higher than the 200-WMA on a regular basis, and if the BTC price is not consistently staying at least 7% higher than the 200-WMA, then the 200-WMA might discontinue growing at least 7% per year, and adjustments could be made based on such happenings (including considering that the 200-WMA measures 4 years of averages so it is a delayed indicator).
At this exhaustion, you are only 79 years by then, so have you stayed too old to own a bitcoin? Don't you also wish to leave anything behind for your NOK should you eventually die off before old age?
Sustainable withdrawal means that you can withdraw at those projected rates forever and ever and ever, so it is possible to pass down the income that you were drawing to next of kin, if you so choose.
I don't think that there should be much emphasis on selling off bitcoin when you are still less than 60 and in active service (could be business or civil service) as long as you still own an active source of income. At over accumulation stage, an investor may choose to end his accumulation process, but holding for a longer period could guarantee more profit and better old age experience because bitcoin should be a retirement plan.
Your choices regarding getting to enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin are up to you to figure out. Whether you work until 60 years old is also up to you to figure out. Bitcoin can be used to supplement or replace current income depending on the quantity of bitcoin that you had accumulated and the sustainable withdrawal rate that you had calculated your bitcoin to be able to generate.
If you fuck up in your calculations of a sustainable withdrawal rate then that is on you, and it would not be a good thing to withdraw too much bitcoin too soon and end up overally depleting your bitcoin based on your mistakes in accurately calculating a sustainable withdrawal rate.
Surely some guys might want to accumulate 2x the amount of bitcoin that they need in order to have a cushion for their making mistakes, so there are ways to deal with uncertainties in regards to the actual sustainability of the system.. .My system allows for a 10% annual withdrawal of the dollar value of the 200-WMA (and of course a 7% increase each year - which I have back tested too), yet you could choose a lower withdrawal rate until you are confident in the sustainability of your own withdrawal quantities. If you fuck up, you only have yourself to blame, and you can fuck up in either direction by withdrawing too much or by withdrawing too little. You have to figure out your own balances..
I will own more BTC at the end of this year than I do now. Will you?
I am not still in my BTC accumulation stage, so I probably won't own more BTC at the end of the year.
Then STFU paper hands.
You are a BTC seller who is going to be selling the bottom of the cycle while criticizing those who sold the top. Your Bitcoin plan is to be a leech who sells BTC every year for the rest of your life while never supporting the market ever again. Keep it real.
I also understand that a person may reach his accumulation target and either reduce his DCA allocation to bitcoin or temporarily stop bitcoin accumulation or then retire to only buying dips because he feels he has achieved his accumulation target even though he is not restrained from changing his mind to accumulate more.
This does not absolutely imply that such investor is actively selling his bitcoin. Not all HODLers are still active in bitcoin buys because it's all personal and even though you are not buying more, at least don't sell.
"I'm not depositing anymore or I'm not at the point of depositing anymore" is a disturbing statement and has created confusion. The idea that an investor will move towards selling his investment after seeing that his investment target has been met is wrong. Rather, it may be that after meeting his target, he will increase his investment with a new goal or become more serious about his investment.
You are not able to create a goal for yourself? You think that you need to continue to move the goal post so that you are accumulating bitcoin forever.
Perhaps we could presume that my earlier example regarded a guy who was working full time, and earning in the ballpark of $100k per year, yet over the years, he had ended up accumulating 42.3 BTC, and currently he is thinking about quitting his job and completely living off of his bitcoin, and his bitcoin can generate an income of more than $200k per year forever and ever and ever - including he can give himself a 7% per year raise in the dollar amount. The only work that he would need to do is accounting related to his withdrawals, whether he decides to withdraw monthly, quarterly annually or in some other kind of increments.
Since he no longer has to work, he has options.
He does not need to accumulate more bitcoin either, even though optionally he could choose to accumulate more bitcoin.
You think that such a guy needs to create higher goals for himself so that he never graduates out of accumulation status?
You think that guys can never have enough bitcoin?
Sure, it could matter if the guy is in his 20s, versus 30s, versus 40s, and sure he has potentials to earn more money, yet he does not have to earn more money if he has a guaranteed income of $200k per year and 7% raises each year.
Sure, he could hold out for more and continue to build his bitcoin holdings, or he could just stick with his 42.3 BTC, and with the passage of time, the 42.3 BTC will support a higher sustainable withdrawal rate if he defers his beginning to withdraw from it.. so he could delay 6 months or 12 months or even 24 months, and then recalculate the withdrawal rate at various future dates and he does not even need to increase his bitcoin stash in order to be able to withdraw a higher dollar rate from the stash that hehad already accumulated.
I have always found it confusing that he will not deposit anymore,
Yeah, you do not seem to understand bitcoin well enough. The Bitcoin stash is growing faster than the withdrawal rate, meaning that each year that if the guy is withdrawing $200k and even if he is giving himself a 7% raise each year, then on average the bitcoin stash value is growing in value at a greater amount than the amount that he is withdrawing... and the reason that he can do that perpetually is because perpetually into the future, the bitcoin value continues to grow faster than the amount that he is withdrawing from it. Of course, he can make adjustments to the upside or to the downside or even keep a cushion so that with the passage of time he can continue to verify that his system is working and that the withdrawal rate that he had chosen is actually sustainable and his chosen withdrawal rate is not overly depleting his bitcoin stash.
that is, his mind expresses that he has not achieved any success from the market by holding on for a long time,
You are just making shit up. You don't seem to understand the concept, yet you want to argue with it? Maybe you should try to figure out the concept rather than just guessing and making assertions that are not even true. Try to work with the example that I gave or come up with your own example. You say that you don't understand how it works, yet you want to argue that it does not work.
whereas in the past few years, we have seen a lot of changes in the market and those who have been able to hold on for a long time have finally achieved success. So I think it is better for us to avoid such misleading comments.
You are the ONLY one throwing out misleading comments, and you even admit you don't understand it.
You can also look at the tool and put in your own dates and numbers.
Right now 42.3 BTC supports a sustainable withdrawal rate greater than $200k ($243k per year to be more at the limits), yet if OgNasty had accumulated 42.3 BTC by 2021 and decided to employ sustainable withdrawal starting from
the beginning of 2021, then the sustainable withdrawal rate at that time for the same quantity of 42.3 BTC would have had been ONLY $33k per year, so the same quantity of BTC supports a higher withdrawal rate with the passage of time, and between 2021 and now (5 years) the sustainable withdrawal rate had gone up right around 7.4x based on the same quantity of BTC.
I'm not sure if someone's habits as to how they manage their finances makes them a real or fake Bitcoiner really.
The one true bitcoiner.
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