If you were to have 300 bitcoin, then why would it matter if you were to have $126k ($38 million) in value or $58k ($17 million). I know you want more and more, yet you likely ended up with way less than 30 bitcoin based on your trading and desires for more in the face of one of the best (if not the best?) of places to put your value.
This is not my question to answer, but when is that ever stopped me?
I think that I am making a different point, since if we are looking at bitcoin, it is quite likely that the investor would end up in a position in having 10x more coins than the trader, unless the trader ended up getting lucky on a consistent basis, then potentially he might have had been able to keep up with the investor. Perhaps?
I was attempting a comparison between the trader and the investor, and in bitcoin , it had been really difficult for the trader to beat the investor, and even if the trader might be experiencing some seemingly current victories, I continue to doubt such victory abilities in longer time frames, whether 15 years or maybe even if we were to compare any periods of 8 years or longer.
Absolutely. And with no record of other people's trading histories or results other than their word, it really does boil down to the Joker for me because what's the point? Why are we hearing the story? Well, it's psychology, I guess.
There is no problem talking about ideas, yet some guys want to meander into unprovables - like whether they executed an order or not and whether they are balling.
It is a very rare trader who can beat markets and it's simply mathematically proven for most people to buy and hold is a more profitable strategy than to try to trade. People who beat the market do exist, but there aren't many of them. And it's just math, because if it was that easy to do, well, it would stop being that easy to do.
For traders, there are a few problems with bitcoin that relates to its history of trending up... which make it quite difficult to trade and not to get caught on the wrong side in terms of selling too much too soon... that also relates to ONLY a few days of each year that you have to be "in" in order to profit.. and so frequently traders end up inevitably being "out" on days that they should have had been "in"... Sure they can ignore it all they like, and there may be some rare ones who are either luck or maybe they have some skill (but it is probably ultimately luck) who actually end up beating the market...or the higher bar of beating the guy who had merely bought and held..
In the end, it's going to be what one person calls a rose because... Some people will see cycles, some people will see the vanishing of cycles, and others like myself will see what seems to be a reduced influence of the so-called Bitcoin cycle over the price.
There are multiple theories and also multiple contributors to BTC price action, even though sure, some of the contributors to price action will be more dominant (and even more persuasive than others), so if some arrogant twat comes to the thread and proclaims that x, y and z caused the price to do this, and x, y, a and b are going to cause the BTC price to do this other thing in the future, then good for them that they have a theory but it might be wrong and/or it might be incomplete.
The more interesting topic for me currently is what really is driving the price now.
Price is an ongoingly interesting topic... which is part of the reason that we participate in threads like this ... to review ideas of others, and to spout out our own variations of ideas.
I can come up with a handful of very likely factors and a couple of them are quite fun to explore their branching possibilities.
For example just a simple question.
What if the institutional powerhouses have gained the ability to have significant control over the current price of Bitcoin?
Playing this game based on the rules as they have existed so far is madness, in my opinion. But hey... what do I know?
It is possible that if some of the leading price locations get manipulated, then more and more of the price can be controlled, but it could still end up blowing up. Maybe part of the battle with CZ and Binance relates to both past manipulation, but also normies getting upset over what seems to be manipulation.... Many of us likely realize that CZ and Binance have been compromised since at least mid-2023.. and so yeah, various powers that be are able to play with the price and experiment, yet I doubt that they have complete control over the price, since some matters could end up blowing up on them. Some of the behind the scenes matters are so difficult to figure out until maybe some dead bodies come floating by.
have to say one thing be ready for more dip and lower prices.
we got below 69k and 66.6 k
down into 62.5k area
so 59k is coming
but if you are on the sidelines and have not got any dip at all buy some now and have cash for more dip later on.
For sure the past week has been pretty brutal with increasing downity slope with hardly any periods of recovery.. sometimes the depth of a candle will just wear itself out, and perhaps a violent bounce.. yet at the same time, when the momentum continues down, and seemingly unrelenting, then it can be difficult to determine when it stops.
We might recall the March 12, 2020 dippening, and some folks proclaim that BitMex had to shut off their exchange in order to prevent the BTC price from going to zero on that day... so maybe BitMex was a somewhat ethical actor on that day in some regards, yet it could be the case that we might not have any ethical actors, and the purpose is to try to drive the price way beyond how far it had dipped on March 12,2020 (in terms of percentage.. or maybe in terms of amazement).. and the ones manipulating may well be benefiting from their manipulation.. to the extent that they can still find coins that they are able to get for free by engaging in such outrageous pushes of the price downwardly.
One thing is pushing the price down, and then another thing is keeping the price down.. so we may well start to see considerable divergences in the price between exchanges too.
There might be some exchanges that end up going down (or maybe having "hacks" too)..
I feel like someone is playing with us... someone who doesn't give a shit.
At least on March 12, 2020 there was a reason.
Do we have global meltdown? I haven't seen that. Maybe global meltdown is coming tomorrow, or does it wait until next week?
There was another 2 week delay of the US government shutdown. There might be market uncertainties related to that, too.. .
We don’t hit bottom until JJG & Biodom admit I was right and the four year cycle is real. We aren’t there yet. Maybe if we fall into the 50s? Hard to say.
I don’t take pleasure in the drop in Bitcoin’s value, but it is much easier to cope with when you knew it was going to happen and took precautions.
Yep, pretty clear the four year cycle is still alive. I sold some at 92k and then again at 121k. I thought we would go much higher though so didn’t sell as much as I should have (same happened for me in 2017 and then 2021 - impossible to get the tops though).
I will start buying back when we go below 55k and if we don’t get there then whatever, I still have a fat stack.
I take no joy in this as it works out a lot better for me financially if we moon but @JayJuanGee @Ambatman @Mia Chloe - you boys are going to lose this bet. Close to zero chance we hit a new ATH in Q1 2026.
Never say never.
Bitcoin can do bitcoin things.
(Yes, still hoping for ATH in Q12026, not as savvy as you).
Even the March 12, 2020 recovery took several months. I cannot imaging much better than 5% odds to get to another ATH prior to April 1.. which is ONLY around 55 days from now.
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