Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out

I just don't like you to connect an actual person (me) with a made up number that is not correct at all.
You can say..."someone with 20 bitcoins who bought all in a lump sum" and make fun of that hypothetical person.
Not much zinger there, of course, but wouldn't this be a bit nicer?
Of course, i don't want to know your "number"...it was just a figure of speech or a verbal challenge of sorts.

I am torn on the idea, since we already had an example that "we" had used a lot... sure of course, I could still rename the hypothetical person (even though that won't be as fun), yet these days we are not even getting too many examples of guys who might get to even a few bitcoin in a short period of time, and so most of the examples of guys getting to 10-20 bitcoin or more would likely be coming from examples of guys who had been investing in bitcoin for 6 years or more.

Surely guys who got into bitcoin from 2018 until perhaps before 2021 could have had gotten average bitcoin prices in the $7k to $12k territories, so even with that it would take quite a commitment of capital (such as $70k to $160k) to get 10 to 20 bitcoin.

And then maybe 2022 to 2023 we might be able to have guys with average BTC costs between about $25k and $35k, perhaps?.. so then it becomes almost impossible for normal guys to get into double digit quantity of coins... so yeah, we may well be gravitating towards talking about guys with 3-6 coins, which is kind of an in-between area that is still potentially achievable for higher income guys.

[edited out]

LFC gets it.
He buys, he sells, his stash grows.
This game's too easy!

He's gotta be Omnipotent.
No?

Hahaha, well, I don't always agree with everything he's saying, but in this case he gets it.

If anyone had followed his advice (i.e., sell at cycle high, buy at cycle low), they would have multiplied their corn by at least a 2x / cycle. Even he did not follow his own advice! The thing is, when you are a coiner, especially of the HoDL mentality, you don't easily sell your corn, even if you know it would be beneficial in the long run.

That is much too scary to imagine being in a status of no coiner or low coiner while waiting to buy back.. it is so scary that it seems almost retarded to even try.

It might just be me.

for f.. sake....either it cycles or it grows, not both.

Sorry to break the news to you.
The world is not so simple.
This time, it happens to be "both."

Exactly! I was about to post exactly the same.
It's "both!" Cycles do exist, and yet Bitcoin still grows. I guess that for some people it's always either black or white...

I've said it many times and I'll say it again. Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is too much of a disruption to not have an effect on price. We can debate about how strong that disruption is, and how it is diminishing as cycles progress, but it does exist and will exist.

A thing to note here (which is my own interpretation of the "both" comment): the existence of 4-year cycles does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will strictly follow the logarithmic price progression we're seeing happening over the years. There can be huge price upsurges that can break the logarithmic pattern, as Bitcoin gets adopted and accepted by big players. But, still, 4-year cycles will exist, and will affect price fluctuations and volatility within a cycle.

Time will tell, and we'll all be here (hopefully) to discuss it.
Next ATH in Nov. 2029 or thereabouts!   <--- Had to throw this in, for the LULZ! Hahaha. I hope it comes much earlier!

I have to admit that I am getting scared about some of the powers that be breaking aspects of bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Paashaas]

$230m in leveraged longs wiped in an hour, this was a typical Sunday flush.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[LFC_Bitcoin]

$230m in leveraged longs wiped in an hour, this was a typical Sunday flush.

The sooner The Clarity Act passes and he goes back to jail, the sooner Bitcoin can be organic and enter price discovery without wash trading and Binance led manipulation, I welcome that day.

In the meantime, nothing much really going on, still expecting at least one more sizeable leg down this year before the bottom is confirmed and we can start the long, winding road back to make new ATHs in a couple of years.

HODL.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

$230m in leveraged longs wiped in an hour, this was a typical Sunday flush.

The sooner The Clarity Act passes and he goes back to jail, the sooner Bitcoin can be organic and enter price discovery without wash trading and Binance led manipulation, I welcome that day.

In the meantime, nothing much really going on, still expecting at least one more sizeable leg down this year before the bottom is confirmed and we can start the long, winding road back to make new ATHs in a couple of years.

HODL.

I don't know how you imagine CZ going to jail when he's being protected by the President of the US himself? In return, he provides him with the necessary infrastructure for his shit tokens and occasional pumps&dumps. We shouldn't expect anything in that regard for the next three years, unless nature intervenes and takes TACO to hell, but even then it doesn't mean we should be happy considering the kind of people who have become US presidents in the past few decades.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[goldkingcoiner]

Ok I gotta say, the latest episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms really honored Ser Duncan. But I still hate to see him grovelling to the royals.

[Hueristic]

Ok I gotta say, the latest episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms really honored Ser Duncan. But I still hate to see him grovelling to the royals.

I thought he made a great point when he stated he couldn't let them take his hand and foot.

[Biodom]

Exactly! I was about to post exactly the same.

It's "both!" Cycles do exist, and yet Bitcoin still grows. I guess that for some people it's always either black or white...

I've said it many times and I'll say it again. Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is too much of a disruption to not have an effect on price. We can debate about how strong that disruption is, and how it is diminishing as cycles progress, but it does exist and will exist.

A thing to note here (which is my own interpretation of the "both" comment): the existence of 4-year cycles does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will strictly follow the logarithmic price progression we're seeing happening over the years. There can be huge price upsurges that can break the logarithmic pattern, as Bitcoin gets adopted and accepted by big players. But, still, 4-year cycles will exist, and will affect price fluctuations and volatility within a cycle.

Time will tell, and we'll all be here (hopefully) to discuss it.

Next ATH in Nov. 2029 or thereabouts!   <--- Had to throw this in, for the LULZ! Hahaha. I hope it comes much earlier!

I am going to write this long-winded post and shut up about it (mostly).

Here it goes:

1. Yes, reward is halving each 4 years (roughly), but the only entities this should affect is miners, not market price as a whole.
2. The cycle parameters, previously thought about as unviolatable were broken already:
a. the idea that the new ATH always comes after halving--violated in 2024.
b. the idea that the low is never lower than the previous high-violated in 2022.
c. the notion that the 200 wma is never breached-violated in 2022.
3. some of you has the "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% and, somehow, this is a unviolatable part.
Why is that? I never heard a plausible explanation
4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.
5. a combination of #3 and #4 means (mathematically) that bitcoin would start cycling down, not up (in price).
6. Bitcoin miners are in severe distress...the average cost is $82K right now and the pure cost of electricity is $58K. If you look at miners share prices, they are "cycling" toward zero. MARA (one of the best and most efficient) high prior cycle was $40, this cycle $20, currently $7.82. Miners are 'escaping" to AI, undermining bitcoin foundations.
7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.

TL;DR all cycle parameters are being violated , except the 70-80% plunge. Either this one would be violated as well (with 50, then 40, then 30% downswings or about) or bitcoin is done. 52% is "enough" for this cycle, but there is no guarantee, of course. And...f-k, no, it (ATH) would NOT be in Nov 2029, that's just a joke, I assume.

[asUHWEceyc]

Most trading individuals are on a simplistic side..."it would do what it has always done: -70-80%".
I wonder if bitcoin is capable of behaving in a contrarian fashion, because the "consensus" of cyclists is 29-38K (-77 to -70%).
To me, this would be a test of bitcoin's ability to do something unexpected.

I surely wouldn't touch it with new buys at 29K as miners would be severely damaged, imho, and the whole "store of value" concept would be jeopardized as well since there is no FTX excuse this time.

The excuse is "gold"

Central banks are bidding it up with fake fiat and rubes have rushed in for the leftover shavings.

Of course, CBs would never actually move to hard money due to "modern" printing and control requirements.

There's implied narrative competition for bitcoin, even though it's just a distraction: possibly by design?

Edit:
Continuing down the slope of diminishing declines would put the final wick between 71% ($36624) and 74% ($32830)...however it's doubtful we get there; agree the investment thesis is badly injured slipping that far with a mere 80% cyclical ATH improvement over 4 years. The implication is `29 would then yield a meteoric top in the realm of 170-180k

[BitHodlers]

I am going to write this long-winded post and shut up about it (mostly).

Here it goes:
1. Yes, reward is halving each 4 years (roughly), but the only entities this should affect is miners, not market price as a whole.
2. The cycle parameters, previous thought about as unviolatable were broken already:
a. the idea that the new ATH always comes after halving--violated in 2024.
b. the idea that the low is never lower than the previous high-violated in 2022.
c. the notion that the 200 wma is never breached-violated in 2022.
3. some of you has the "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% and, somehow, this is a unviolatable part.
Why is that? I never heard a plausible explanation
4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.
5. a combination of #3 and #4 means (mathematically) that bitcoin would start cycling down, not up (in price).
6. Bitcoin miners are in severe distress...the average cost is $82K right now and the pure cost of electricity is $58K. If you look at miners share prices, they are "cycling" toward zero. MARA (one of the best and most efficient) high prior cycle was $40, this cycle $20, currently $7.82. Miners are 'escaping" to AI, undermining bitcoin foundations.
7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.

TL;DR all cycle parameters are being violated , except the 70-80% plunge. Either this one would be violated as well (with 50, then 40, then 30% downswings or about) or bitcoin is done. 52% is "enough" for this cycle, but there is no guarantee, of course. And...fuck, no, it (ATH) would NOT be in Nov 2029, that's just a joke, I assume.

This post should be pinned if there was such a feature here.. If the plunge idea does not get violated, we would actually be in real trouble for the first time ever maybe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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