Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

{snip}

I am going to write this long-winded post and shut up about it (mostly).

Here it goes:

1. Yes, reward is halving each 4 years (roughly), but the only entities this should affect is miners, not market price as a whole.
2. The cycle parameters, previous thought about as unviolatable were broken already:
a. the idea that the new ATH always comes after halving--violated in 2024.
b. the idea that the low is never lower than the previous high-violated in 2022.
c. the notion that the 200 wma is never breached-violated in 2022.
3. some of you has the "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% and, somehow, this is a unviolatable part.
Why is that? I never heard a plausible explanation
4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.
5. a combination of #3 and #4 means (mathematically) that bitcoin would start cycling down, not up (in price).
6. Bitcoin miners are in severe distress...the average cost is $82K right now and the pure cost of electricity is $58K. If you look at miners share prices, they are "cycling" toward zero. MARA (one of the best and most efficient) high prior cycle was $40, this cycle $20, currently $7.82. Miners are 'escaping" to AI, undermining bitcoin foundations.
7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.

TL;DR all cycle parameters are being violated , except the 70-80% plunge. Either this one would be violated as well (with 50, then 40, then 30% downswings or about) or bitcoin is done. 52% is "enough" for this cycle, but there is no guarantee, of course. And...f-k, no, it (ATH) would NOT be in Nov 2029, that's just a joke, I assume.

Fuck I hate typeing on a laptop, lost my entire reply somehow so I'll do an abridged version.

Agree with most of your points sans these.

7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.

If bitcoin ever hit that level the fed would buy and shore up the market, there are too many institutional moneymen in here now and its too big to fail. The same as the stock market. And I would guess we will never see below 50k again except maybe a liquidation event for the punters playing leverage games. And SHA-256 will never be even remotely close to profitable on a gpu EVER Again.

4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.

Although I do not prescribe to the " "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% " I do know derivatives stole market cap and am not too much a fool as to ignore it aS AN INCONVENIENT FACT AS MANY HERE DO.  EDIT:fuck... capslock

Edited:




Added:

The Proof:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2730822.msg52847244#msg52847244

Trump Administration Popped 2017 Bitcoin Bubble, Ex-CFTC Chair Says

“One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked.”

Added as well:
Clarification for the reasoning behind creating this thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2730822.msg52875968#msg52875968

I was being overly crass with this thread just to make a point which i think was missed by the vast majority. Many times i will make a short post and expect that others can extrapolate my meaning from that and I am wrong more times than not in that regard.

The goal of this thread was to point out those in the system that are coming to get bitcoin, and as i warned they did indeed do exactly that and succeeded fairly well. They now have a position where they skim the cream off the top of this market cap with their futures and options without even having to participate in actually using , buying or holding of coins. It has been admitted by a trump whistle-blower that they intentionally allowed CME/CBOE to pop btc's run-up as a bubble. And I am absolutely certain that the mt.Gox coins as well as others were all used in conjunction in order to achieve that goal.

You must know your enemy in order to defeat him and these are the enemies of freedom, those that would control you through currencies are no less dangerous than a mugger on the street and are far more insidious.

[goldkingcoiner]

Ok I gotta say, the latest episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms really honored Ser Duncan. But I still hate to see him grovelling to the royals.

I thought he made a great point when he stated he couldn't let them take his hand and foot.

They just wanted to resent him. Even when he was already acting humble even in face of "the gods judgement" being on his side.

Training the boy as a squire in a humble fashion, away from royalty, wealth and everything else which only would corrupt his heart was a good move and I like how Duncan had the balls to call the royal family out so clearly on this.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Ok I gotta say, the latest episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms really honored Ser Duncan. But I still hate to see him grovelling to the royals.

I thought he made a great point when he stated he couldn't let them take his hand and foot.

They just wanted to resent him. Even when he was already acting humble even in face of "the gods judgement" being on his side.

Training the boy as a squire in a humble fashion, away from royalty, wealth and everything else which only would corrupt his heart was a good move and I like how Duncan had the balls to call the royal family out so clearly on this.

I really enjoyed watching him kick that princes ass but was pretty bummed out seeing the only actual noble dude bite it.

[AlcoHoDL]

Exactly! I was about to post exactly the same.

It's "both!" Cycles do exist, and yet Bitcoin still grows. I guess that for some people it's always either black or white...

I've said it many times and I'll say it again. Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is too much of a disruption to not have an effect on price. We can debate about how strong that disruption is, and how it is diminishing as cycles progress, but it does exist and will exist.

A thing to note here (which is my own interpretation of the "both" comment): the existence of 4-year cycles does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will strictly follow the logarithmic price progression we're seeing happening over the years. There can be huge price upsurges that can break the logarithmic pattern, as Bitcoin gets adopted and accepted by big players. But, still, 4-year cycles will exist, and will affect price fluctuations and volatility within a cycle.

Time will tell, and we'll all be here (hopefully) to discuss it.

Next ATH in Nov. 2029 or thereabouts!   <--- Had to throw this in, for the LULZ! Hahaha. I hope it comes much earlier!

I am going to write this long-winded post and shut up about it (mostly).

Here it goes:

1. Yes, reward is halving each 4 years (roughly), but the only entities this should affect is miners, not market price as a whole.
2. The cycle parameters, previous thought about as unviolatable were broken already:
a. the idea that the new ATH always comes after halving--violated in 2024.
b. the idea that the low is never lower than the previous high-violated in 2022.
c. the notion that the 200 wma is never breached-violated in 2022.
3. some of you has the "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% and, somehow, this is a unviolatable part.
Why is that? I never heard a plausible explanation
4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.
5. a combination of #3 and #4 means (mathematically) that bitcoin would start cycling down, not up (in price).
6. Bitcoin miners are in severe distress...the average cost is $82K right now and the pure cost of electricity is $58K. If you look at miners share prices, they are "cycling" toward zero. MARA (one of the best and most efficient) high prior cycle was $40, this cycle $20, currently $7.82. Miners are 'escaping" to AI, undermining bitcoin foundations.
7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.

TL;DR all cycle parameters are being violated , except the 70-80% plunge. Either this one would be violated as well (with 50, then 40, then 30% downswings or about) or bitcoin is done. 52% is "enough" for this cycle, but there is no guarantee, of course. And...f-k, no, it (ATH) would NOT be in Nov 2029, that's just a joke, I assume.

Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with many of your points. We're (all WOers) on the same side -- at least that's how I feel. I'm meriting your post, because it contains some valuable information.

Regarding the 4-year cycles, I'm merely stating the obvious and indisputable fact that the Bitcoin algorithm halves Bitcoin production approx. every 4 years. That's it. I'm not attempting to analyze it, because I can't. At the same time, my observations of ATH time occurrences throughout the entire Bitcoin historical data, as well as the WMA-200 indicator, both show a clear periodicity of 4 years, in sync with the halvings. I think this is an interesting and significant observation, and that's why I'm stating it. That's it. Lastly, it was precisely this 4-year periodicity, hard-coded into the algorithm, that enabled me, back in 2015, to foresee Bitcoin's long term price trend and invest a big chunk of my fiat savings at specific, strategically positioned time points over the last 10 years, which has resulted in the amount of coins I currently own. The following piece of code literally guided my investment strategy, and it worked!

Code:

CAmount GetBlockSubsidy(int nHeight, const Consensus::Params& consensusParams)
{
    int halvings = nHeight / consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval;
    // Force block reward to zero when right shift is undefined.
    if (halvings >= 64)
        return 0;

    CAmount nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
    // Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years.
    nSubsidy >>= halvings;
    return nSubsidy;
}

That's all I'm saying. I'm not disagreeing with any of your predictions, because it is in my favor that the cycles eventually break and we do see a huge ATH in 2026, or 2027, or 2028, or even in every one of the coming years. Who would not want that?

And, yes, my Nov. 2029 cycle ATH prediction is just a joke (or maybe a semi-joke, as it is based on the previous ATH date periodicity of, you guessed it, 4 years). BTW, I consider any and all Bitcoin price predictions as jokes to be laughed about. Last time I checked, Honey Badger didn't care.

Over and out on this topic.-

[BitMaxz]

btc had a 35-69k range in 2021 now it is 64.4K

It seems buyers are still fighting this zone; just today, $3-$4 billion was wiped out within this day.
The Money Flow Index is showing a reversal signal; $64k might be the final price today, and tomorrow would be positive.

[Hueristic]

{snip}

Code:

CAmount GetBlockSubsidy(int nHeight, const Consensus::Params& consensusParams)
{
    int halvings = nHeight / consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval;
    // Force block reward to zero when right shift is undefined.
    if (halvings >= 64)
        return 0;

    CAmount nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
    // Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years.
    nSubsidy >>= halvings;
    return nSubsidy;
}

{snip}

Yet,relying on that today without adding an algorithm for institutional fuckery and paper markets is a fools errand.

[AlcoHoDL]

{snip}

Code:

CAmount GetBlockSubsidy(int nHeight, const Consensus::Params& consensusParams)
{
    int halvings = nHeight / consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval;
    // Force block reward to zero when right shift is undefined.
    if (halvings >= 64)
        return 0;

    CAmount nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
    // Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years.
    nSubsidy >>= halvings;
    return nSubsidy;
}

{snip}

Yet,relying on that today without adding an algorithm for institutional fuckery and paper markets is a fools errand.

Of course, things today are way more complicated than the early days...

As for me, I'm not currently relying on it. Not anymore. My investment days are over. I'm now in spending/enjoyment mode. Now and for the foreseeable future (I hope).

[cAPSLOCK]

Although I do not prescribe to the " "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% " I do know derivatives stole market cap and am not too much a fool as to ignore it aS AN INCONVENIENT FACT AS MANY HERE DO.  EDIT:fuck... capslock

Could we at least go out to dinner first?

For what it's worth, I resonate very strongly with Biodom's treatise in his list of numbers and agree with your adjustments to that treatise.

I would only add that we are fundamentally standing on a precipice of change that I believe is nearly impossible for most human beings to even begin to grasp. (cAPSLOP, I guess, but it's the best I got.)

Because of this, I believe depending on past paradigms will prove to be way off in some versions of the future at least.

And I reckon that Bitcoin faces its most important existential crisis by far in the near term, I just don't know exactly what near term is.  And what the crisis actually is isnt even clear.

I also think it is notable that at least from my perspective, the Bitcoin community including some fairly old timers is expressing a level of doubt and fear around Bitcoin that beats any I've seen before.  And this would include all of the exchange failures and other nasty things that have happened over the years.

Whatever happens in the next clump of months, I predict that open, free market systems will make out much, much better than closed systems, walled gardens, and old ways.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

I also think it is notable that at least from my perspective, the Bitcoin community including some fairly old timers is expressing a level of doubt and fear around Bitcoin that beats any I've seen before. 

and then, some of us just watch birds and squirrels

[OgNasty]

Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it.

He has reached stage 3, or the bargaining stage. This is a positive development as I didn’t appreciate his initial denial about the four year cycle or the anger that followed seemingly pointed in my direction for predicting this market collapse. The tough part will be holding through the next stage without being forced to sell at the bottom, but then comes acceptance of the four year cycle and we can kick off a new bull market.

[cAPSLOCK]

One last cAPSLOP note.

I have been worried about the institutional influences on Bitcoin ever since the first futures were made available.

But I would also argue along along the way that Bitcoin is designed in a way that it's not compatible with the type of manipulation that is necessary to control it in a Charlie Munger type of way.

So, in the end, if Bitcoin can be controlled, neutered or possibly even destroyed by the powers that be, it will not be Bitcoin's/Satoshis fault, but it will be the fault of its users, 100%.

And I don't even fully agree with those who make the case that unless Bitcoin is used transactionally, it will fail.  I think there is a pieces out of order and/or missing from that idea. Because Bitcoin can be used as money before it is used commonly, transactionally.  That use case is as a store of value.  And then we will see it being used transactionally first in places who need that.  This is exactly where the "you are here star" is on the map.

But human beings really only care about one thing and that is that they can have more dollars in the end.  And therefore, they are going straight for the paper bitcoin.

And though there is nothing wrong with protecting your value by investing in speculative assets, if it becomes possible for the institutional powers to fully transform Bitcoin into only a speculative asset as many of them claim it only is...

BITCOIN WILL HAVE FAILED BECAUSE NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE UNDERSTOOD WHY CUSTODY IS CRITICAL, AND LEFT IT ON EXCHANGES OR RELEGATED CUSTODY TO THIRD PARTIES OUT OF PURE CONVENIENCE. (ETFs)


(that said, I believe it's going to be much harder to kill than people think since  custody will end up being understandable by enough people in the end... But if we have to learn this the hard way (and it seems we do as usual), it may take time. Oh well.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it.

He has reached stage 3, or the bargaining stage. This is a positive development as I didn’t appreciate his initial denial about the four year cycle or the anger that followed seemingly pointed in my direction for predicting this market collapse. The tough part will be holding through the next stage without being forced to sell at the bottom, but then comes acceptance of the four year cycle and we can kick off a new bull market.

I am sorry, but your "prediction" is child's play.
Typically, markets don't follow "children's" wishes.

However, please point me to a line in bitcoin code that says that it has to go down 70-80% every f-g time despite not rising as vigorously as in the prior cycle as per the "pattern" that you and others espouse so vigorously.

Above is what basically it comes down to as ALL other parameters/rules were already violated.
Imho, this one would be violated as well, either on the upside or downside.
You might not buy and it rips up (and 60 or about was the low) or you may smugly buy at 40 and it goes to 15.
What then?

[OutOfMemory]

^
the thing is, both of you could discuss this in a less personal way and it would result in a vivid, interesting and delightful discussion.
It's not that you don't have valid points on both ends of the spectrum, but avoid to integrate the other's arguments.

Just my 2 cents.

I still see a merge of cyclic and acyclic patterns evolving right before our eyes, but we can only know for sure after we saw the future (which we can't right now, of course).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

^
the thing is, both of you could discuss this in a less personal way and it would result in a vivid, interesting and delightful discussion.
It's not that you don't have valid points on both ends of the spectrum, but avoid to integrate the other's arguments.

One is not the same as the other.

[OgNasty]

Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it.

He has reached stage 3, or the bargaining stage. This is a positive development as I didn’t appreciate his initial denial about the four year cycle or the anger that followed seemingly pointed in my direction for predicting this market collapse. The tough part will be holding through the next stage without being forced to sell at the bottom, but then comes acceptance of the four year cycle and we can kick off a new bull market.

I am sorry, but your "prediction" is child's play.

You aren’t wrong. I’ve even referred to it as the 4-year old with a crayon method over the years. Like I’ve said before… This is the easiest market to trade in human history.

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

After the 2021 cycle it appears I updated it to the 6-year old with a crayon method. The overall message is the same.

Finally, Cramer shared that he believes Bitcoin is going to go down to $12,000, the level where "it was before this whole fiasco began."

This checks out.  Things don't always have to be extremely complicated.  In fact, I think it was Einstein would said if you can't explain things simply, you do not understand them well enough.  I think this is as true as ever with the Bitcoin price.  Give a 6-year old a crayon and tell them to finish the pattern of the Bitcoin price.  I can assure you that an entire classroom of children would look at a picture showing the long term trend line and draw that price right down to it.  It's not some crazy mathematical prediction model.  It's really as simple as the fact there was a bubble, and now we're returning to the mean.  No amount of politics and drama effects that.  The liquidations and "market swan" events we're seeing is a result of the price returning to the mean, the price returning to the mean isn't a result of the liquidations...  It was going to happen.  All that's left now is to set the narrative.

Another 4 years later and I’m making the same arguments… Like clockwork.

[Biodom]

Biodom, I think you're over-analyzing it.

He has reached stage 3, or the bargaining stage. This is a positive development as I didn’t appreciate his initial denial about the four year cycle or the anger that followed seemingly pointed in my direction for predicting this market collapse. The tough part will be holding through the next stage without being forced to sell at the bottom, but then comes acceptance of the four year cycle and we can kick off a new bull market.

I am sorry, but your "prediction" is child's play.

You aren’t wrong. I’ve even referred to it as the 4-year old with a crayon method over the years. Like I’ve said before… This is the easiest market to trade in human history.

I think mining is playing a smaller role than believed. We were in the largest asset bubble in modern financial history. The price is simply falling to reality before resuming it’s upward march. $3,400 was the last support level before prices went sky high, and I suspect that will be the base to build from. This isn’t some statistical genius calculation or anything. It’s likely the conclusion a 4-year old with a crayon would come up with if shown a 2 year chart. Don’t underestimate Occam's razor.

After the 2021 cycle it appears I updated it to the 6-year old with a crayon method. The overall message is the same.

Finally, Cramer shared that he believes Bitcoin is going to go down to $12,000, the level where "it was before this whole fiasco began."

This checks out.  Things don't always have to be extremely complicated.  In fact, I think it was Einstein would said if you can't explain things simply, you do not understand them well enough.  I think this is as true as ever with the Bitcoin price.  Give a 6-year old a crayon and tell them to finish the pattern of the Bitcoin price.  I can assure you that an entire classroom of children would look at a picture showing the long term trend line and draw that price right down to it.  It's not some crazy mathematical prediction model.  It's really as simple as the fact there was a bubble, and now we're returning to the mean.  No amount of politics and drama effects that.  The liquidations and "market swan" events we're seeing is a result of the price returning to the mean, the price returning to the mean isn't a result of the liquidations...  It was going to happen.  All that's left now is to set the narrative.

Another 4 years later and I’m making the same arguments… Like clockwork.

We shall see how it pans out this time around.