Exactly! I was about to post exactly the same.
It's "both!" Cycles do exist, and yet Bitcoin still grows. I guess that for some people it's always either black or white...
I've said it many times and I'll say it again. Bitcoin production is halved every 4 years. This is too much of a disruption to not have an effect on price. We can debate about how strong that disruption is, and how it is diminishing as cycles progress, but it does exist and will exist.
A thing to note here (which is my own interpretation of the "both" comment): the existence of 4-year cycles does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will strictly follow the logarithmic price progression we're seeing happening over the years. There can be huge price upsurges that can break the logarithmic pattern, as Bitcoin gets adopted and accepted by big players. But, still, 4-year cycles will exist, and will affect price fluctuations and volatility within a cycle.
Time will tell, and we'll all be here (hopefully) to discuss it.
Next ATH in Nov. 2029 or thereabouts! <--- Had to throw this in, for the LULZ! Hahaha. I hope it comes much earlier!
I am going to write this long-winded post and shut up about it (mostly).
Here it goes:
1. Yes, reward is halving each 4 years (roughly), but the only entities this should affect is miners, not market price as a whole.
2. The cycle parameters, previously thought about as unviolatable were broken already:
a. the idea that the new ATH always comes after halving--violated in 2024.
b. the idea that the low is never lower than the previous high-violated in 2022.
c. the notion that the 200 wma is never breached-violated in 2022.
3. some of you has the "religious" belief (or maybe it is your portfolio talking-@OGnasty and @LFC) that the "cycle" has to plunge 70-77% and, somehow, this is a unviolatable part.
Why is that? I never heard a plausible explanation
4. Despite #3 some of you still think that the cycle would naturally cycle less on the upside each time.
5. a combination of #3 and #4 means (mathematically) that bitcoin would start cycling down, not up (in price).
6. Bitcoin miners are in severe distress...the average cost is $82K right now and the pure cost of electricity is $58K. If you look at miners share prices, they are "cycling" toward zero. MARA (one of the best and most efficient) high prior cycle was $40, this cycle $20, currently $7.82. Miners are 'escaping" to AI, undermining bitcoin foundations.
7. Prediction: a sustained plunge to $29-38K would finish bitcoin mining as an industry. There will be no recovery in it. Well, maybe we will go back to GPUs later on, but it is a long way to it, still.
TL;DR all cycle parameters are being violated , except the 70-80% plunge. Either this one would be violated as well (with 50, then 40, then 30% downswings or about) or bitcoin is done. 52% is "enough" for this cycle, but there is no guarantee, of course. And...f-k, no, it (ATH) would NOT be in Nov 2029, that's just a joke, I assume.
Biodom, you make some damn good points there.
This run was lackluster, no doubt about it. There was no retail influx which says to me there is a good chance that retail is gone forever, burned too many times probably. This run was therefore driven by corporations/wall street and they seem to have been burned hard this time themselves. If we do fall below 40k, they may never be back, just like retail. Then the big question is, who will drive the next cycle bull run if there is no retail or corporations/wall street? Genuine question, if the cycles are still on who bids the price up again?
It's very possible that 1) Either the cycles are dead and we don't drop 70% this time, Or 2) the cycles are dead and we do drop 70% and don't hit another ATH for a long long time. look at gold from 1980 - 2000, no reason why Bitcoin can't do the same, then look at how long it took for gold to break it's inflation adjusted high.
Less possible is that the cycle is still alive and we go down to <40k then bull run >200k in a few years. Why? because there will be no retail or willing corporations/wall street to bid things up in that scenario.
The inflation trade is now Gold and looking at the charts it has been that way since 2022. We just haven't been watching.
If we haven't already bottomed, or don't bottom very soon at a price not much lower than 60k, gold is where retail and corporations/wall street will go with future monetary debasement.
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