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February 25, 2026, 02:59:26 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26935798 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Hueristic
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February 24, 2026, 08:07:01 PM

Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

What an odd thing to say when the opposite has already been proven to be true.


The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.

Hmmm, in your case - it could have something to do with your Cybertruck, dah.

Imagine not liking a bulletproof truck with 850 horsepower that runs on sunshine, drives itself, and can go 0-60 in 2.6 seconds… That’s almost as hard to believe as people getting mad at the person who tried to save them from losing half their savings. An odd bunch we have in these parts.

Bulletproof???




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udxR5rBq_Vg


ChartBuddy
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February 24, 2026, 09:01:21 PM


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Ermaios
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It from bit.


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February 24, 2026, 09:07:06 PM

Imagine not liking a bulletproof truck with 850 horsepower that runs on sunshine, drives itself, and can go 0-60 in 2.6 seconds…

Come on man, don’t tell me that, I’ve got the four horses of the Apocalypse parked just outside. Tongue

1. It’s not bulletproof - as Hueristic already pointed out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLV-4HMrAz0
9cal & smaller are ok-ish, but as for the rest, nah. A kinky shotgun shell should also do it.
You are more than welcome to bring that piece of shit down to the shooting range and test it with my riffles. I’m sure we’ll have a blast. 0-0

2. A big dick does not imply an efficient dick as you well know by now.
This means that your “850hp running on sunshine”, does not even compare to my smaller size horsepower that runs on pure gasoline. I’d like to see you when the sun turns off for a while. 0-1

3. Drives itself? I wouldn’t be caught dead on that thing - a car that I don’t drive. Manually. 0-2

4. As for the speed, well, you got me there. 1-2

5. You forgot to mention that every fart or blowjob, in or around the car, gets send to Elon. Zero privacy right there. 1-3

Aaand we have a winner! Grin
JayJuanGee
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February 24, 2026, 09:22:52 PM

Is everybody having fun?

No.

probably another leg down incoming

thought we'd have a relief rally this or next week  Roll Eyes

A leg down to where?

We already had a leg down to $59,930 on February 5 (a mere 19 days ago).

Why is there any need for another leg down?

You conclude that there is just too much negative sentiment out there and a certain amount of ongoing downity momentum (that might even be being engineered by a certain quantity of paper coins).

‎It feels like we are living through the exact 'cycle violation' era Biodom warned about. If we look at where we stand today, February 24, 2026, the data suggests we aren't just over analyzing, we're witnessing a structural shift.

https://fr.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc%3A593d53caf094b%3A0-bitcoin-s-market-structure-may-be-changing-this-metric-explains-why/

What are you doing about it?

You have ONLY been registered on the forum for slightly more than 3 months, since November 2025.

Have you been buying any bitcoin, yet?  Or just thinking about it?

does "individuals" here also include individuals who buy the ETF ?

You know the answer.

If you are not holding the keys, they how could you claim to have any control over the coins and how they are used or abused.

There are likely some circumstances in which some level of coin ownership through ETFs would be justified.. yet it seems that bitcoin is going to increasingly lose power if a decent amount of coins are not held privately.

There are a decent number of folks who believe that they own actual coins when they are custodied on exchanges - and I am not even completely against that - even though it would be nice if guys were to give some priority to at least half of their coins being held off exchanges.. my current ratio right now is around 5% of my coins held on exchanges, even though historically I had much higher percentages, so I can appreciate that it could take a bit of time for some folks to transition into some level of self-custody.

Is everybody having fun?
I think the answer to this question depends on whether you sold the four year cycle high or not…

Some people in this thread made generational wealth and some people watched half their savings disappear. The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.

The funny thing (maybe ironic?) is that some guys are fucking around trading (gambling and taking chances) to sell most if not all of their weedlie widdo bitcoin stash that is 1/10th the size as it could have had been if they had not gotten into the habit of fucking around trading.. .. so maybe (perhaps?) they get lucky this time, so then their stash will ONLY be 1/5th of what it would have had been, in the event that they would be able to average their buy back at around 50% of their sell price, which is also a pretty BIG IF.

Is everybody having fun?
I think the answer to this question depends on whether you sold the four year cycle high or not…
Some people in this thread made generational wealth and some people watched half their savings disappear. The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.
Og I hate you so.
Sarcasm .
Only for a few more months and then I’m back on team up only for the following 2.5 years.

I’m torn because I want to invest in SpaceX and that IPO will happen right before Bitcoin bottoms for this cycle. Real estate will probably follow shortly after and I wouldn’t mind a better view either. So many great buying opportunities coming, but only so much dry powder. Patience will be key. No reason to rush to buy here. Especially with the current situation in the Middle East.

Yes.. and that is part of the overall picture in regards to why you currently have in the ballpark of 1/10 or even lower than the coins that you could have had - because traders also tend to devolve into distractions in regards to which next shiny thing they would like to dilute their time, energy and value into. 

The picture is quite less rosey than you tend to ongoingly make it out to be.
philipma1957
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February 24, 2026, 09:26:05 PM

I would out law all ev's and all gas only cars.

I would force everyone to have hybrid

compromise the best of both worlds.
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February 24, 2026, 09:29:29 PM

Quote
BTC supply in loss just hit 10M coins, the fourth-highest reading ever.

A further 70K coins are in loss from purchases between Feb. 6 and today.

Circulating supply hits 20M BTC next week, that’s 50% in loss.

History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom.

x

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February 24, 2026, 10:01:15 PM


Explanation
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Hueristic
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February 24, 2026, 10:11:57 PM

Another day with friggin poker room closed, not heading home to 3 more feet snow and car I need to get towed out of here.
JayJuanGee
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February 24, 2026, 10:34:24 PM
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[edited out]
I don't feel any hate towards people who think that they are always right with reality proving them correct, even though so far that is.

The sell and buy back lower has two actions that need to be carried out for it to be successful, which is part of the difficulty in declaring victory prior to both ends being executed... except surely there are some guys who measure their success in dollars, so there may well not be a desire to get back into bitcoin... so for example, if someone were to have had put $500k into bitcoin at around $22k in late 2022 or early 2023 that would be right around 22.8 BTC, and then if such person were to have had sold that 22.8 BTC at around $115k to get right around $2.65 million out of it, then surely the amount of value siphoned off would not have had been anything to sneeze at to have gained right around $2.113 million in profits within around 3-ish years.

On the other hand, had the same guy who had gotten into bitcoin around June 2011 bought around $2k worth of bitcoin  ($100 per month) between June 2011 and January 2013 (20 months), then such guy could have had gotten around 200 BTC (at $10 each).

Personally, I would prefer to be the guy with the 200 BTC and the option to sell rather than being a no coiner or low coiner who happens to have $2.6 million that he is trying to figure out whether to buy bitcoin back or to buy some other shiny asset.

Maybe it is just me... since there are likely quite a few guys in these here parts who are not really fucking around trying to trade dee cornz in any kind of meaningful way and they have BTC stashes that are anywhere between 5x to 20x larger than the BTC stash sizes that they would have had if they had been fucking around trying to trade dee cornz.
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February 24, 2026, 10:53:24 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

.

Maybe it is just me... since there are likely quite a few guys in these here parts who are not really fucking around trying to trade dee cornz in any kind of meaningful way and they have BTC stashes that are anywhere between 5x to 20x larger than the BTC stash sizes that they would have had if they had been fucking around trying to trade dee cornz.

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February 24, 2026, 11:01:15 PM


Explanation
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February 24, 2026, 11:36:37 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Cycles are dead.

This is my bitcoin cycle:

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Today at 12:01:17 AM


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Today at 12:13:00 AM

I would out law all ev's and all gas only cars.

I would force everyone to have hybrid

compromise the best of both worlds.

And only tyrannical despotism required to do so.

I do agree that hybrid is the better option (with exceptions) though.
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Today at 01:01:20 AM


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philipma1957
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Today at 01:14:41 AM

Another day with friggin poker room closed, not heading home to 3 more feet snow and car I need to get towed out of here.

I dug out fully today.

22inch storm heavy wet snow.

I used the new plug in Westinghouse snowblower.

Two 100 foot extension cords with a waterproof plug case.

Spent well under 200 bucks for all of it.

An 18 inch wide path claims to be able to do 8 inch height.


So Sunday 2 passes each about 4 inches and Monday

3 passes 7inches 4 inches and 3 Inches so all 22 Inches of wet heavy snow done by Monday l

Today salting and tackling the snow plow wall made by the town last night.

Fucking wall is 3 foot by 3 foot  by 18 foot and is by far the hardest part to fix.

All done resting the back in bed as I type.

Stacked a bit extra as my kraken ladder down hit as 64, 63, 62 steps all hit
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Today at 02:01:15 AM


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Today at 02:03:29 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1)

Cycles are dead.

This is my bitcoin cycle:



That's nice. But, let's apply some math & science to it:

Assuming a mean male shoulder height of 144.25 cm [1], the diameter of the Bitcoin cycle wheel in the picture is also D = 144.25 cm.

The circumference of the Bitcoin cycle wheel is therefore C = Pi * D = Pi * 144.25 ≈ 453.17 cm.

This means that the bicycle travels 453.17 cm per one full Bitcoin cycle wheel rotation. Given that one Bitcoin cycle has an approx. time duration of 4 years [2], the average bicycle speed is V = 453.17 cm / 4 years, or

V ≈ 0.000000129 km/h

That's a pretty stationary bicycle. Good luck holding a balance on that!



[1] NC State University — Anthropometric Detailed Data Tables, Page 25
[2] GitHub — bitcoin/src/validation.cpp, Line 1845
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Today at 02:06:44 AM


That's a pretty stationary bicycle. Good luck holding a balance on that!


There is no balance because he uses self-custody.
philipma1957
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Today at 02:27:48 AM

Trump trump trump.

BTC rises 2k during Trump's speech.


OMG
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