Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

State of things in 2026

hmm a new way to do a rug pull.

using the assassination of the supreme leader as an excuse to pull the rug.

i wonder how much they scored with this move.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

State of things in 2026

hmm a new way to do a rug pull.

using the assassination of the supreme leader as an excuse to pull the rug.

i wonder how much they scored with this move.

 I read that ~$53,000 of "new" money (based on new wallet data) rolled in just before it went bust but at some point in their short existence, trading volume approached $900k.  Hard to say how much they scammed.

[BTCETFInvestor]

This is for you Biodom, JJG & Ermaios:

When someone challenges the security of a multi-trillion-dollar firm's Bitcoin cold storage - Such a person is IGNORANT.

When someone challenges the security of a multi-trillion-dollar firm's Bitcoin cold storage, they are usually coming from one of two places: a "Not your keys, not your coins" ideological stance, or a concern about centralized points of failure. Such a person is ignorant.

"Cold Storage" in 2026 is light-years beyond a simple USB stick in a drawer. It is a multi-layered fortress of technology, law, and physical security.

Here is the break down for the most secure practice ever known:

1. The "Air Gap" is Literally a Bunker
For a firm managing billions, "cold storage" isn't just an offline device; it's Deep Cold Storage.

Geographic Distribution: Private keys are often split into fragments (using Shamir’s Secret Sharing or MPC) and stored in decommissioned nuclear bunkers or Swiss mountain vaults across different continents.

Physical Isolation: These facilities are guarded 24/7 by armed security and are electromagnetically shielded (Faraday cages) to prevent any remote signal from reaching the hardware.

2. Multi-Party Computation (MPC) & Multi-Sig
The biggest fear is a "rogue employee" or a single hack. Firms solve this by ensuring no one person—not even the CEO—has the power to move funds.

M-of-N Quorums: Moving Bitcoin might require 3 out of 5 "key signers" located in different time zones to perform a physical ceremony.

MPC Technology: Modern firms use Multi-Party Computation, where the private key never actually exists in one piece. It is generated in shards that interact to sign a transaction without ever being combined, eliminating a "single point of failure."

3. The "Legal & Insurance" Moat
This is where the trillion-dollar firm wins over the individual.

Bankruptcy Remoteness: Unlike unregulated exchanges of the past (like FTX), modern "Qualified Custodians" (like BNY Mellon or Fidelity) use legal structures where client assets are segregated. If the firm goes bankrupt, the Bitcoin belongs to the client, not the creditors.

Insurance: These firms carry "Specie Insurance" policies that cover physical theft or damage—something a retail investor with a hardware wallet simply cannot get.

[philipma1957]

State of things in 2026

hmm a new way to do a rug pull.

using the assassination of the supreme leader as an excuse to pull the rug.

i wonder how much they scored with this move.

 I read that ~$53,000 of "new" money (based on new wallet data) rolled in just before it went bust but at some point in their short existence, trading volume approached $900k.  Hard to say how much they scammed.

have to say it is quite clever to pick a new excuse for the rug pull.

i don’t recall if this has ever been done.

[vapourminer]

State of things in 2026

hmm a new way to do a rug pull.

using the assassination of the supreme leader as an excuse to pull the rug.

i wonder how much they scored with this move.

 I read that ~$53,000 of "new" money (based on new wallet data) rolled in just before it went bust but at some point in their short existence, trading volume approached $900k.  Hard to say how much they scammed.

have to say it is quite clever to pick a new excuse for the rug pull.

i don’t recall if this has ever been done.

hey 1st one to use this new excuse to rug wins!

pay attention scammnerz an amature beat youz

psffffftt

[OutOfMemory]

Not saying it was solely the reason, but it definitely helped - as will future inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs.  

You will never see me complain about the price going up.  I store a large percentage of my meager savings in a speculative technology.  Because it's wild... because it's free... because it can't be stopped.

It's funny, some of my econ-minded friends will chide me.  They literally think I'm stupid and lucky.  And they're right do some extent, I think.  But they go down the list. It's not FDIC insured. The government will never let it succeed. It's too volatile to be used as a currency. It's a Ponzi scheme. It is at best a speculative asset. It's not even like gold. It has no technological use and still like Jamie Diamond just this week. Bla bla bla blockchain.

The thing is, Idiots always think about intelligent people that they are "stupid and lucky". If they are no idiots, then it's purely envy that speaks out of them.
But "going down the list" is a behavior tightly tied to idiots, imho. (= no opinions of their own)

I am going to start a campfire drum circle!

Calling on the spirits to guide Bitcoin towards its destiny of glory and other big words.

And I'm gonna keep doing this until y'all snuckers learn how to talk like adults.

|:  Boooom boom boom tap! Ba boom boom TAP.!  :|

Would be cool to chime in, with my 12" Djembe 
The "talk like adults" part i'll have to pass. I don't live that concept.

My 4-year cycle belief system is a gauge to sell, but that time has passed and was proven to be astonishingly accurate.  It should be noted that I am a super-bull who is regularly buying Bitcoin, selling silver for Bitcoin, making eloquent thought out forum posts for Bitcoin, and expect that we see a new all time high in but a few short years.  I don't recommend that people ever sell Bitcoin except in every fourth year: 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.  So I am in fact a buyer currently (unlike JJG who will sell off 4% of his stack this year), have been for several months, and plan to be for another couple of years even though I do expect we will see the cycle bottom in Q3 of this year.  Can I be back in the cool kids club now?

Also, LFC is another human being that I have a great respect for in his ability to actually move coins back and forth in a way that takes advantage of what we have seen emerge as a pattern in the graphs.

I could say I'm jealous of the ability and I am, but I'm also very happy with my strategy, which is just to hold still.

That's something i admire a bit too. There's so much noise in the chart analyzer camp, but he seems to see through it quite well.
When i "saw it", in some cases, i was cowardly afraid of taking action. In a few other cases i hit the buttons and it mostly worked out.
I am also thankful when LFC shares his indicators, sources and even trades (to some extent) among us here. He's about the only one who i would just copy-trade.
Still, after more than 8 years, i managed to identify bottoms, but i am still bad at predicting tops, which is not that bad because i mostly buy and hold.

the squirrels are watching me now

A staring contest with squirrels?
That sounds like you got yourself into quite some situation there.

it is disturbing how close to reality that image is

Whatever, by all means, protect your nuts! 

[cAPSLOCK]

the squirrels are watching me now

Always have.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ermaios]

~ utter institutional crap, pitching and suck-festing ~

Not your keys, not your coins, contains balls (which you don’t have), and is the essence of a sovereign individual, who is responsible for himself, his wealth and his future. Ever since people started trusting banks with their money, it is exactly the point it started going South. Trust me they claimed, I’m better. Bitcoin changes that, but apparently your masters want our coins. Badly.

This doesn’t mean that people are ignorant you clown, they just choose not to abide by your Jewish masters.
Zero contribution yet again, you must think this thread is full of fools, but the truth is that you can get a glimpse of the real fool by looking in the mirror.

[BTCETFInvestor]

~ utter institutional crap, pitching and suck-festing ~

Not your keys, not your coins, contains balls (which you don’t have), and is the essence of a sovereign individual, who is responsible for himself, his wealth and his future. Ever since people started trusting banks with their money, it is exactly the point it started going South. Trust me they claimed, I’m better. Bitcoin changes that, but apparently your masters want our coins. Badly.

This doesn’t mean that people are ignorant you clown, they just choose not to abide by your Jewish masters.
Zero contribution yet again, you must think this thread is full of fools, but the truth is that you can get a glimpse of the real fool by looking in the mirror.

@Ermaios - Take your pick little kid: ignorant, naive, uneducated, obtuse, stupid, moronic, child.

This is how you are viewed, Ermaios:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ermaios]

This is how you are viewed, Ermaios:

I couldn’t care less what you think I am,

[JayJuanGee]

When someone challenges the security of a multi-trillion-dollar firm's Bitcoin cold storage, they are usually coming from one of two places: a "Not your keys, not your coins" ideological stance, or a concern about centralized points of failure.  Such a person is ignorant.

Maybe you should try to write as a person and ask questions, stop promoting bullshit paper products and lecturing us through AI.

I know, you burnt so many bridges and painted yourself into a corner...

It would be difficult to feel sorry for you, and you might not even be able to change your personality, even if your handler has happened to have given you a reasonable amount of latitude.

This is for you Biodom & JJG:

When someone challenges the security of a multi-trillion-dollar firm's Bitcoin cold storage-Such a person is IGNORANT

Repetition helps, no?    

I am sure that ONLY Biodom and I consider you to be retarded.    

[edited out]

hey 1st one to use this new excuse to rug wins!

pay attention scammnerz an amature beat youz
psffffftt

A new mantra.

Instead of:

"Vote early and often."

It is:

"rug pull early and often."

My 4-year cycle belief system is a gauge to sell, but that time has passed and was proven to be astonishingly accurate.  It should be noted that I am a super-bull who is regularly buying Bitcoin, selling silver for Bitcoin, making eloquent thought out forum posts for Bitcoin, and expect that we see a new all time high in but a few short years.  I don't recommend that people ever sell Bitcoin except in every fourth year: 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.  So I am in fact a buyer currently (unlike JJG who will sell off 4% of his stack this year), have been for several months, and plan to be for another couple of years even though I do expect we will see the cycle bottom in Q3 of this year.  Can I be back in the cool kids club now?

Also, LFC is another human being that I have a great respect for in his ability to actually move coins back and forth in a way that takes advantage of what we have seen emerge as a pattern in the graphs.

I could say I'm jealous of the ability and I am, but I'm also very happy with my strategy, which is just to hold still.

That's something i admire a bit too. There's so much noise in the chart analyzer camp, but he seems to see through it quite well.
When i "saw it", in some cases, i was cowardly afraid of taking action. In a few other cases i hit the buttons and it mostly worked out.
I am also thankful when LFC shares his indicators, sources and even trades (to some extent) among us here. He's about the only one who i would just copy-trade.

Are you going to copy and paste his "whine for 2 weeks before executing" technique too?

Still, after more than 8 years, i managed to identify bottoms, but i am still bad at predicting tops, which is not that bad because i mostly buy and hold.

What about now?  Is the bottom in?

I have never really been comfortable in figuring out either the top or the bottom which is part of the reason that I have blind techniques that mostly emphasize just holding and offsetting some of the volatility by blindly buying on the way down and blindly selling on the way up... sometimes I get feelings, yet I get feelings for tops and bottoms about 6 months after they are in.. even though sure, I might have feelings, but I rarely make too many drastic changes based on feelings. Maybe I will add or subtract from an order or change an increment, yet overall, those tend to be relatively small changes in the whole scheme of things.

By the way, if the price is mostly trending up, it does seem that the winning play is mostly just buying and holding, even though surely there does come a point where shaving off holdings might become a trend... ..so for example, if guys are still in their earning years, then they likely would be continuing to add to their bitcoin holdings.. but perhaps at some point they have enough or more than enough, so even if they still might be earning, they might slow down in their adding to their bitcoin holdings.

It can be difficult to determine for other guys, even though I ongoingly find it problematic, to take on a view that selling is a good approach for guys who consider themselves to still be accumulating.. so from my perspective any amount sold might have conditions in regards to expecting that it might not be able to be bought back and it might not get bought back.. which means fewer coins if the BTC price resumes up... and if any of us has enough or more than enough bitcoin, we can calculate those variables into our thinking, and if we believe that we still have a lot of years in front of us, then surely, we want to have some confidence that our stack is a large enough size to continue to draw from whether it is price based or time based withdrawal methods.

I better stop, since I am likely devolving too much into areas in which we have a lot of discretion, and sure the profit levels (or the available) options may well differ down the road - so then there may be questions of spend now versus spend later, and which ends up being more valuable becomes hard to measure in any kind of objective/neutral way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

My 4-year cycle belief system is a gauge to sell, but that time has passed and was proven to be astonishingly accurate.  It should be noted that I am a super-bull who is regularly buying Bitcoin, selling silver for Bitcoin, making eloquent thought out forum posts for Bitcoin, and expect that we see a new all time high in but a few short years.  I don't recommend that people ever sell Bitcoin except in every fourth year: 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.  So I am in fact a buyer currently (unlike JJG who will sell off 4% of his stack this year), have been for several months, and plan to be for another couple of years even though I do expect we will see the cycle bottom in Q3 of this year.  Can I be back in the cool kids club now?

Also, LFC is another human being that I have a great respect for in his ability to actually move coins back and forth in a way that takes advantage of what we have seen emerge as a pattern in the graphs.

I could say I'm jealous of the ability and I am, but I'm also very happy with my strategy, which is just to hold still.

That's something i admire a bit too. There's so much noise in the chart analyzer camp, but he seems to see through it quite well.
When i "saw it", in some cases, i was cowardly afraid of taking action. In a few other cases i hit the buttons and it mostly worked out.
I am also thankful when LFC shares his indicators, sources and even trades (to some extent) among us here. He's about the only one who i would just copy-trade.

Are Would you going to consider to copy and paste his "whine for 2 weeks before executing" technique too?

Funny, but not funny. I was referring to trades, not whines. You knew that, didn't you?
#nooffense

Still, after more than 8 years, i managed to identify bottoms, but i am still bad at predicting tops, which is not that bad because i mostly buy and hold.

What about now?  Is the bottom in?

Honestly, i have not seen a clear bottom signal as in the previous two bear markets, yet.
I could fail at any point in the future, but in the past i was consistently right in this regard.
Reading the quote of my post again, i didn't even imply that i could not.
There's nothing behind or between the lines.
Also honestly, i can't even do such things, like implying meaning "between lines"*.

*As it's commonly called.

To semi answer your question:
(EDIT: From my point of view) A clear final capitulation signal is yet to be seen in this bear market.

#nooffenseagain

I have never really been comfortable in figuring out either the top or the bottom which is part of the reason that I have blind techniques that mostly emphasize just holding and offsetting some of the volatility by blindly buying on the way down and blindly selling on the way up... sometimes I get feelings, yet I get feelings for tops and bottoms about 6 months after they are in.. even though sure, I might have feelings, but I rarely make too many drastic changes based on feelings. Maybe I will add or subtract from an order or change an increment, yet overall, those tend to be relatively small changes in the whole scheme of things.

Neither was i. Your "blind techniques" are saving you a lot of worries, which is really cool, but my mind loves to think in patterns, and it seems to tend to stick to everything. When i say "pattern", i mean something completely different than chart patterns.
You're good to not change anything based on feelings, it took me some years to develop at least some discipline to not do this, too.
Hats off to you, if you did this from the beginning (of investing, maybe?).

By the way, if the price is mostly trending up, it does seem that the winning play is mostly just buying and holding, even though surely there does come a point where shaving off holdings might become a trend... ..so for example, if guys are still in their earning years, then they likely would be continuing to add to their bitcoin holdings.. but perhaps at some point they have enough or more than enough, so even if they still might be earning, they might slow down in their adding to their bitcoin holdings.

That's why i think about Bitcoin in Bitcoin, not in Dollars. I surely slowed down in accumulating Bitcoin, but less so in terms of Dollars spent. And there were times when i didn't have the money, you may remember those insurance trials they have senselessly drawn me into. Even when i got that money paid by them later, the Bitcoin price was higher. That's what also slowed me down adding to the stack (in Bitcoin).

It can be difficult to determine for other guys, even though I ongoingly find it problematic, to take on a view that selling is a good approach for guys who consider themselves to still be accumulating.. so from my perspective any amount sold might have conditions in regards to expecting that it might not be able to be bought back and it might not get bought back.. which means fewer coins if the BTC price resumes up... and if any of us has enough or more than enough bitcoin, we can calculate those variables into our thinking, and if we believe that we still have a lot of years in front of us, then surely, we want to have some confidence that our stack is a large enough size to continue to draw from whether it is price based or time based withdrawal methods.

I better stop, since I am likely devolving too much into areas in which we have a lot of discretion, and sure the profit levels (or the available) options may well differ down the road - so then there may be questions of spend now versus spend later, and which ends up being more valuable becomes hard to measure in any kind of objective/neutral way.

I am totally with you on this. Nothing to add here.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Breaking news:


Trump fires Homeland Security Secretary Noem after mounting criticism over her leadership.




https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-hes-replacing-homeland-185023696.html


She said no to saying no when asked about the affair with an underling.

Stupid she should have quoted Andersen Cooper's Mom

"My boyfriend is the Nijinsky of cunninglingus"

Trump would have not had the balls to fire her for saying that.

Now she is just a hasbeen that had a big hat.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com