[edited out]
Funny, but not funny. I was referring to trades, not whines. You knew that, didn't you?
#nooffense
With LFC trades and whines go together. #justsaying
Still, after more than 8 years, i managed to identify bottoms, but i am still bad at predicting tops, which is not that bad because i mostly buy and hold.
What about now? Is the bottom in?
Honestly, i have not seen a clear bottom signal as in the previous two bear markets, yet.
I could fail at any point in the future, but in the past i was consistently right in this regard.
Reading the quote of my post again, i didn't even imply that i could not.
There's nothing behind or between the lines.
Also honestly, i can't even do such things, like implying meaning "between lines"*.
*As it's commonly called.
To semi answer your question:
(EDIT: From my point of view) A clear final capitulation signal is yet to be seen in this bear market.
#nooffenseagain
I am not sure why I would be offended. I was (and am) merely asking whether the bottom is in or not (from your point of view). If someone is proclaiming to have a talent, may as well see if any helpful information might be derived from such proclaimed talent.
I have never really been comfortable in figuring out either the top or the bottom which is part of the reason that I have blind techniques that mostly emphasize just holding and offsetting some of the volatility by blindly buying on the way down and blindly selling on the way up... sometimes I get feelings, yet I get feelings for tops and bottoms about 6 months after they are in.. even though sure, I might have feelings, but I rarely make too many drastic changes based on feelings. Maybe I will add or subtract from an order or change an increment, yet overall, those tend to be relatively small changes in the whole scheme of things.
Neither was i. Your "blind techniques" are saving you a lot of worries, which is really cool, but my mind loves to think in patterns, and it seems to tend to stick to everything. When i say "pattern", i mean something completely different than chart patterns.
You're good to not change anything based on feelings, it took me some years to develop at least some discipline to not do this, too.
Hats off to you, if you did this from the beginning (of investing, maybe?).
I have tweaked the mostly blind system that I have developed from time to time, yet I would proclaim that I was ONLY focused on ongoing BTC accumulation prior to the end of 2015, and then I transitioned into selling on the way up and buying on the way down... .. In some sense I had considered myself to be mostly long only, so then the sales would be closing longs, and pretty much from the start, i figured out formulas in which I could mostly feel neutral for any sales that I made.. so that the sales were made in such a way that I would not be bothered if the price ever came back down, ever again, so I think that I structured the sales with an assumption that the BTC price would never come back down again.. so then if the BTC price did end up coming down, I considered as just a way to start over with the buying back of whatever I sold.
So in the very beginning the sales would be no more than 10% for every doubling of the price, and little by little the amounts came down more and more and more. I think that right now I am selling less than 2% for every doubling.. which is probably way too low. Financially it would probably be better for me to try to gravitate back in the direction of 10% for every doubling.. but it just seems like way more cash than I need or want..
By the way, if the price is mostly trending up, it does seem that the winning play is mostly just buying and holding, even though surely there does come a point where shaving off holdings might become a trend... ..so for example, if guys are still in their earning years, then they likely would be continuing to add to their bitcoin holdings.. but perhaps at some point they have enough or more than enough, so even if they still might be earning, they might slow down in their adding to their bitcoin holdings.
That's why i think about Bitcoin in Bitcoin, not in Dollars. I surely slowed down in accumulating Bitcoin, but less so in terms of Dollars spent. And there were times when i didn't have the money, you may remember those insurance trials they have senselessly drawn me into. Even when i got that money paid by them later, the Bitcoin price was higher. That's what also slowed me down adding to the stack (in Bitcoin).
It seems to me that the more we stack up, then as the BTC price gets higher we might become less inclined towards always buying and then just buying on dips.. that is if we believe that we still need more BTC. At a certain point we might consider that we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.
Your milage may vary.
hey when is jjg scheduled to lose?
You sound a wee bit too chipper about this idea.
#justsaying
The loss would be official in the event that the BTC price on Bitstamp does not go above $126,272 at the stroke of midnight April 1 - .. which I am trying to say that if between March 31 at 23:59, and April 1, at 00:00, we have not seen a new ATH on Bitstamp, then I will have to cry over my spilt milk and fork over 100k sats to LFC.
I could set up 10 siloed groups of coins each siloed address with multiple signers needed.
and the coins would be safe enough.
How many signers would you require? lucky 7? or some other number? 5? What happens if the required number of signers gets taken out?
I have heard that there are ways to have deprecating signatures too, which largely means that under certain events (passage of time of not being able to get access or something), then the number of required signers could become lower and lower and lower.. which is supposed to be part of the solution to resolve lost keys..
and a large company can do it if they choose to do it.
Down the road we will see if a major player gets taken out.
Seems like it. It already seems like a pretty BIG deal that a son of a contractor would have had access to coins... Unless the contractor had hired the son, but that contractor surely is showing bad judgement based on the pretty outrageous actions of his kid.
Also what happens if the USA says 1,000,000 BTC has been stolen from
BlackROCK and we will reset the blockchain like ETH did to fix.
How is that going to happen, exactly?
You been involved in bitcoin for right around 15 years and you really believe that bitcoin is like ethereum?
And anyone running the fork will be arrested as a traitor or a spy.
That would be a pretty difficult law to enforce, even though we likely realize that governments are capable of quite draconian measures, especially when they might start to feel desperate and/or trapped in a corner - and surely from time to time, we do see those kinds of behaviors from governments, including the current administration in the USA government.
Frankly I do not like a large company holding 1 million coins or a country doing the same.
Frankly ? how are you going to stop it? Bitcoin is largely decentralized, which also gives license to attempt to accumulate as many coins as possible whether by hook or by crook... which yeah, some honey pots seem to exist, too.
just saying the problems can happen 1 2 3
Upon further reflection, you are not wrong that certain extreme problems can end up playing out, yet you are probably assigning a wee bit toohigh of probabilities on certain fringe scenarios, which might be a wee bit of your bitcoin-related specialty, to the extent that you understand bitcoin at all.. hahahahahaha.
That’s a lot of pressure to put on yourself for April 1st! $126k would be incredible for all of us, but don't let the charts get to you if it doesn't hit. At the end of the day, it’s just sats hope you don't have to fork them over, but it’s a classy move to back your word like that.
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