Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hottiek]

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.

Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.

-I also didn't know this indicator, and I went to research to see how it works.
 Here I found a good explanation>
https://fastercapital.com/content/Sortino-ratio--How-to-calculate-and-interpret-the-Sortino-ratio-and-how-it-differs-from-the-Sharpe-ratio.html#The-Sortino-Ratio-Explained

"3. The Sortino Ratio Explained

The Sortino Ratio is named after its creator, Frank A. Sortino, and it's particularly useful for evaluating investment strategies, portfolios, or individual assets. Here's a comprehensive exploration of this ratio:
...."

So, I realized that like any indicator, it is not 100% reliable, but it indicates the ends
very well, I also saw in this posted graph, some failures of the indicator,
I scribbled and it is in sequence, but even so, it has a Good performance.

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

 That was one of the hardest moments for me, being approx. 45% under on a (for me) HUGE investment!!!! Everyone preached to me that I was wrong!!! Just the beginning of my plate training, though I also felt maxpain in late 2017 after watching it go from 17,966 to 3k (again, I was told how stoopid I was). Upgraded to titanium via ole Bob-O... Don't get me wrong, the last time, even though it was hard watching it go from 69k back to 17k, somehow it was less hard, as my .63 BTC had grown substantially. Remember, the pie-in-the-sky number was 32K; that was the dream. Oh, how far we've come!!! 126k down to now has been mind-bending but not a real concern. Could I have followed LFC and made more? Hell yeah, I could have, but I also could have gone all in on the block wars and followed Craig to my demise, fo sho. Do I wish I had more? Yeah, but I am extremely grateful to be in the position I am in now!

 Also coming to terms with time-based selling rather than price-based selling has also taken the pressure off as I can always not sell, as the bot (Jjg) says. But if I am bettering my current life, then it's worth it, as the one thing we can't buy is time, and I bet Bob doesn't regret (much, anyways) building the ranch or Jimbo's lake. One day I hope to be able to rent an Airbnb at both though!!!!
 I just wish I could use my time more efficiently and not think about what-ifs; it will definitely drive a man crazy!
K

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

If it wasn't for brash geopolitics and the absolute stupidity of politicians, Bitcoin would be at 100K at least.

I think we would not need btc at all if nationalism and crooked politicians.

edit : did not exist

[philipma1957]

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.

Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.

-I also didn't know this indicator, and I went to research to see how it works.
 Here I found a good explanation>
https://fastercapital.com/content/Sortino-ratio--How-to-calculate-and-interpret-the-Sortino-ratio-and-how-it-differs-from-the-Sharpe-ratio.html#The-Sortino-Ratio-Explained

"3. The Sortino Ratio Explained

The Sortino Ratio is named after its creator, Frank A. Sortino, and it's particularly useful for evaluating investment strategies, portfolios, or individual assets. Here's a comprehensive exploration of this ratio:
...."

So, I realized that like any indicator, it is not 100% reliable, but it indicates the ends
very well, I also saw in this posted graph, some failures of the indicator,
I scribbled and it is in sequence, but even so, it has a Good performance.

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

 That was one of the hardest moments for me, being approx. 45% under on a (for me) HUGE investment!!!! Everyone preached to me that I was wrong!!! Just the beginning of my plate training, though I also felt maxpain in late 2017 after watching it go from 17,966 to 3k (again, I was told how stoopid I was). Upgraded to titanium via ole Bob-O... Don't get me wrong, the last time, even though it was hard watching it go from 69k back to 17k, somehow it was less hard, as my .63 BTC had grown substantially. Remember, the pie-in-the-sky number was 32K; that was the dream. Oh, how far we've come!!! 126k down to now has been mind-bending but not a real concern. Could I have followed LFC and made more? Hell yeah, I could have, but I also could have gone all in on the block wars and followed Craig to my demise, fo sho. Do I wish I had more? Yeah, but I am extremely grateful to be in the position I am in now!

 Also coming to terms with time-based selling rather than price-based selling has also taken the pressure off as I can always not sell, as the bot (Jjg) says. But if I am bettering my current life, then it's worth it, as the one thing we can't buy is time, and I bet Bob doesn't regret (much, anyways) building the ranch or Jimbo's lake. One day I hope to be able to rent an Airbnb at both though!!!!
 I just wish I could use my time more efficiently and not think about what-ifs; it will definitely drive a man crazy!
K

Yeah pick a number for the end of owning btc say 90years in my case.

So

90-69= 21 sales of my btc.

I think on my 70th birthday  I should have 2 coins

So If I begin selling off in 2027



Jan 2027 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2028 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2029 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2030 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2031 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2032 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2033 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2034 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2035 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2036 sell 0.1btc

I will be 80 in 2037 and have a coin left

A simple plan

[ESG]

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

-Yes, and after having pointed out this extreme low in end 2014,
the price remained at the same level for a long time up to 2015,
when the price goes up, but the indicator was already pointing in another direction,
it indicated a good opportunity ...and in 2019, a little less deep,
he also pointed well, but ahead of that,
there were some failures in the pointing, both at the high extreme,
as well as at the low extremes... The manipulation of the market confuses
some indicators well, and I see that the biggest flaws he had in this last high,
where he pointed out that at the beginning of 2024,
70k was at an extreme high, and then in 2025, at the real extreme high,
he gave it as a normal high, or even not so extreme, and so now,
pointing to this last low, 60k, as an extreme low, and continues to point to
70k still in the extreme low region, being the same price level as when it
pointed to 70k at the beginning of 2024 as an extreme high, anyway,
I believe that both he and the price will stay in this region for a while,
about six months? And then both the price and the indicator will synchronize.,
and  can perhaps repeat the same point it had in 2014, and  can now
point to a more extreme low if the price goes below 60K.,
using this indicator together with Stochastic, RSI and Volume
at the Fibbonaci levels, can help find better results....
#

That was one of the hardest moments for me, being approx. 45% under on a (for me) HUGE investment!!!!~~..
.. but I am extremely grateful to be in the position I am in now!
....One day I hope to be able to rent an Airbnb at both though!!!!
 I just wish I could use my time more efficiently and not think about what-ifs; it will definitely drive a man crazy!
K

Yeah pick a number for the end of owning btc say 90years in my case.

So

90-69= 21 sales of my btc.

I think on my 70th birthday  I should have 2 coins

So If I begin selling off in 2027

Jan 2027 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2028 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2029 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2030 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2031 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2032 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2033 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2034 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2035 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2036 sell 0.1btc

I will be 80 in 2037 and have a coin left
A simple plan

I think that in 2027 the price will be below the average of 200w,
it would be good to wait until 2028 and then sell 0.02,
 if at least 10% above 200week average...hehehe..
hold on a little longer...
you drink a good water, I believe you pass 100Y! even more so that  quit smoking....
Take good care of your diabetes, avoid sugars, and don't use sweeteners.

[philipma1957]

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

-Yes, and after having pointed out this extreme low in end 2014,
the price remained at the same level for a long time up to 2015,
when the price goes up, but the indicator was already pointing in another direction,
it indicated a good opportunity ...and in 2019, a little less deep,
he also pointed well, but ahead of that,
there were some failures in the pointing, both at the high extreme,
as well as at the low extremes... The manipulation of the market confuses
some indicators well, and I see that the biggest flaws he had in this last high,
where he pointed out that at the beginning of 2024,
70k was at an extreme high, and then in 2025, at the real extreme high,
he gave it as a normal high, or even not so extreme, and so now,
pointing to this last low, 60k, as an extreme low, and continues to point to
70k still in the extreme low region, being the same price level as when it
pointed to 70k at the beginning of 2024 as an extreme high, anyway,
I believe that both he and the price will stay in this region for a while,
about six months? And then both the price and the indicator will synchronize.,
and  can perhaps repeat the same point it had in 2014, and  can now
point to a more extreme low if the price goes below 60K.,
using this indicator together with Stochastic, RSI and Volume
at the Fibbonaci levels, can help find better results....

The  players in btc are big enough to intentionally fuck with Fibbonaci levels if they choose to.

BTW with the market rolling back to 46k and btc moving up to  71k are we decoupling properly.

The only store of value that Iran can not directly fuck is BTC.

It would be funny to see BTC moon while the market crashes and ai crashes due to  no chips .

Low helium due to Iran would hurt chip building which would help btc since ai can't get more chips.

If you hodl btc just a bit more it could spike and triple peak

2017 big peak

2021 double peak

2025-2026 triple peak.

[BTCETFInvestor]

To the moon!

[ESG]

....using this indicator together with Stochastic, RSI and Volume
at the Fibbonaci levels, can help find better results....

The  players in btc are big enough to intentionally fuck with Fibbonaci levels if they choose to.

-I can't say the same, it depends on the way of interpreting,
and the indicators that are used in parallel, but the most important,
take the descision, be selled and or buyed at certain levels
depending on the time chart in which the Fibonnaci was drawn and
the amplitude of the movement is, the personal objective of each
 being sell and or buy based on volume and averages...
 I believe that the appointment is correct, but the decision becomes difficult,
precisely because of the manipulation of the big players.
So, the decision is individual when basing these indicators.

[Biodom]

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

-Yes, and after having pointed out this extreme low in end 2014,
the price remained at the same level for a long time up to 2015,
when the price goes up, but the indicator was already pointing in another direction,
it indicated a good opportunity ...and in 2019, a little less deep,
he also pointed well, but ahead of that,
there were some failures in the pointing, both at the high extreme,
as well as at the low extremes... The manipulation of the market confuses
some indicators well, and I see that the biggest flaws he had in this last high,
where he pointed out that at the beginning of 2024,
70k was at an extreme high, and then in 2025, at the real extreme high,
he gave it as a normal high, or even not so extreme, and so now,
pointing to this last low, 60k, as an extreme low, and continues to point to
70k still in the extreme low region, being the same price level as when it
pointed to 70k at the beginning of 2024 as an extreme high, anyway,
I believe that both he and the price will stay in this region for a while,
about six months? And then both the price and the indicator will synchronize.,
and  can perhaps repeat the same point it had in 2014, and  can now
point to a more extreme low if the price goes below 60K.,
using this indicator together with Stochastic, RSI and Volume
at the Fibbonaci levels, can help find better results....

The  players in btc are big enough to intentionally fuck with Fibbonaci levels if they choose to.

BTW with the market rolling back to 46k and btc moving up to  71k are we decoupling properly.

The only store of value that Iran can not directly fuck is BTC.

It would be funny to see BTC moon while the market crashes and ai crashes due to  no chips .

Low helium due to Iran would hurt chip building which would help btc since ai can't get more chips.

If you hodl btc just a bit more it could spike and triple peak

2017 big peak

2021 double peak

2025-2026 triple peak.

That would be crazy good, but I am not really calling for it.
That said, I would love to see the face of Ben Cowen if it would happen.
He is definitely one of the strongest believers in "bitcoin is going to do what it has always done before" camp.
So far it follows all the wiggly lines Ben concocted from the prior cycles averages.

To me, markets are never this crazily simple...but it already repeated three times, more or less.

[Biodom]

Sortino ratio is showing that corn is somehow at the bottom.

Someone should make a website that keeps track of all these at the same time. I've not seen this ratio before, thank you.

-I also didn't know this indicator, and I went to research to see how it works.
 Here I found a good explanation>
https://fastercapital.com/content/Sortino-ratio--How-to-calculate-and-interpret-the-Sortino-ratio-and-how-it-differs-from-the-Sharpe-ratio.html#The-Sortino-Ratio-Explained

"3. The Sortino Ratio Explained

The Sortino Ratio is named after its creator, Frank A. Sortino, and it's particularly useful for evaluating investment strategies, portfolios, or individual assets. Here's a comprehensive exploration of this ratio:
...."

So, I realized that like any indicator, it is not 100% reliable, but it indicates the ends
very well, I also saw in this posted graph, some failures of the indicator,
I scribbled and it is in sequence, but even so, it has a Good performance.

That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.

 That was one of the hardest moments for me, being approx. 45% under on a (for me) HUGE investment!!!! Everyone preached to me that I was wrong!!! Just the beginning of my plate training, though I also felt maxpain in late 2017 after watching it go from 17,966 to 3k (again, I was told how stoopid I was). Upgraded to titanium via ole Bob-O... Don't get me wrong, the last time, even though it was hard watching it go from 69k back to 17k, somehow it was less hard, as my .63 BTC had grown substantially. Remember, the pie-in-the-sky number was 32K; that was the dream. Oh, how far we've come!!! 126k down to now has been mind-bending but not a real concern. Could I have followed LFC and made more? Hell yeah, I could have, but I also could have gone all in on the block wars and followed Craig to my demise, fo sho. Do I wish I had more? Yeah, but I am extremely grateful to be in the position I am in now!

 Also coming to terms with time-based selling rather than price-based selling has also taken the pressure off as I can always not sell, as the bot (Jjg) says. But if I am bettering my current life, then it's worth it, as the one thing we can't buy is time, and I bet Bob doesn't regret (much, anyways) building the ranch or Jimbo's lake. One day I hope to be able to rent an Airbnb at both though!!!!
 I just wish I could use my time more efficiently and not think about what-ifs; it will definitely drive a man crazy!
K

Yeah pick a number for the end of owning btc say 90years in my case.

So

90-69= 21 sales of my btc.

I think on my 70th birthday  I should have 2 coins

So If I begin selling off in 2027



Jan 2027 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2028 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2029 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2030 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2031 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2032 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2033 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2034 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2035 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2036 sell 0.1btc

I will be 80 in 2037 and have a coin left

A simple plan

I had exactly the same plan of selling [my portfolio]/20 yearly plan starting at a certain age, then I got there (in 2023) and I didn't pull the trigger for that yearly sale.
Why? Maybe because I didn't need the cash or maybe bitcoin was in ascendance and selling when it was rising rapidly felt sub-optimal.
The prior plan (that i first thought about in 2017) did not even float back to my conscience.
It's only now I remembered having it back then when I was looking at the Phil's post.
I guess plans come and go, depending on your current circumstances and not what you might have thought about many years before.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

If it wasn't for brash geopolitics and the absolute stupidity of politicians, Bitcoin would be at 100K at least.

You think?

In essence you are proclaiming that:

"If it wasn't for the past, the present would not be like it is.

and furthermore,

If the past was different, then the present would also be different."

What else is new?   

If STRC remains at par even when bitcoin would fluctuate down from here and Fed drops interest rates, the amount of money streaming to STRC could resemble a tsunami.
Most boomers have no idea yet about the existence of STRC as far as how much it pays out.

I am not converting my money market fund to STRC yet only because i was unnerved by the prior two sharp drops from 99 to 92-95 and decided to observe one more btc drop and see if it would have an affect on STRC.
The longer STRC stays stable, more people would invest, providing an ever increasing opportunity for MS to buy bitcoin with the proceeds. All he needs is bitcoin appreciating more than 11.5%/year on average to do this essentially in perpetuity.

I wonder?

If a person were to want to get an income of $80k per year out of that, then wouldn't such guy have to sell right around $700k worth of bitcoin and put such bitcoin into such product? 

Personally I would not sell all of my bitcoin to do that, yet in theory, $700k worth of STRC would support an earning rate of $80k per year or $6,666 per month.

Maybe a guy could experiment with some portion of his stash to see if it works (and for sure, I would not take away from my already existing ideas about sustainable withdrawal even though I am open to experimentation with any excess BTC and/ or to supplement my own ideas on bitcoin's sustainable withdrawal as the "hurdle rate."  Maybe a guy could experiment with 1/20th of the size of his targeted withdrawal rate to see how it goes and then maybe to increase the amount if it seems to be working out o.k.?  which might mean perhaps slowly increase the amount value to put into such product if the product seems to be mostly paying out properly....

So then the $80k per year that he would be cashing out would be treated as ordinary income?

I did a quickie search for locations to buy STRC.  This is what I got:



Do you already have an account that has STRC available as one of your options?

If I were to do it, then probably out of those above options, Robinhood would be the easiest for me, even though I would have to create an account with them.

[BTCETFInvestor]

If it wasn't for brash geopolitics and the absolute stupidity of politicians, Bitcoin would be at 100K at least.

You think?

In essence you are proclaiming that:

"If it wasn't for the past, the present would not be like it is.

and furthermore,

If the past was different, then the present would also be different."

What else is new?  

If STRC remains at par even when bitcoin would fluctuate down from here and Fed drops interest rates, the amount of money streaming to STRC could resemble a tsunami.
Most boomers have no idea yet about the existence of STRC as far as how much it pays out.

I am not converting my money market fund to STRC yet only because i was unnerved by the prior two sharp drops from 99 to 92-95 and decided to observe one more btc drop and see if it would have an affect on STRC.
The longer STRC stays stable, more people would invest, providing an ever increasing opportunity for MS to buy bitcoin with the proceeds. All he needs is bitcoin appreciating more than 11.5%/year on average to do this essentially in perpetuity.

I wonder?

If a person were to want to get an income of $80k per year out of that, then wouldn't such guy have to sell right around $700k worth of bitcoin and put such bitcoin into such product?  

Personally I would not sell all of my bitcoin to do that, yet in theory, $700k worth of STRC would support an earning rate of $80k per year or $6,666 per month.

Maybe a guy could experiment with some portion of his stash to see if it works (and for sure, I would not take away from my already existing ideas about sustainable withdrawal even though I am open to experimentation with any excess BTC and/ or to supplement my own ideas on bitcoin's sustainable withdrawal as the "hurdle rate."  Maybe a guy could experiment with 1/20th of the size of his targeted withdrawal rate to see how it goes and then maybe to increase the amount if it seems to be working out o.k.?  which might mean perhaps slowly increase the amount value to put into such product if the product seems to be mostly paying out properly....

So then the $80k per year that he would be cashing out would be treated as ordinary income?

I did a quickie search for locations to buy STRC.  This is what I got:



Do you already have an account that has STRC available as one of your options?

If I were to do it, then probably out of those above options, Robinhood would be the easiest for me, even though I would have to create an account with them.

JJG - Are you using AI? 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

If the past was different, then the present would also be different."

Do you have any proof for this outrageous hypothesis? I expect a peer-reviewed paper at the very least.

[philipma1957]

If the past was different, then the present would also be different."

Do you have any proof for this outrageous hypothesis? I expect a peer-reviewed paper at the very least.

That's funny

[Biodom]

If STRC remains at par even when bitcoin would fluctuate down from here and Fed drops interest rates, the amount of money streaming to STRC could resemble a tsunami.
Most boomers have no idea yet about the existence of STRC as far as how much it pays out.

I am not converting my money market fund to STRC yet only because i was unnerved by the prior two sharp drops from 99 to 92-95 and decided to observe one more btc drop and see if it would have an affect on STRC.
The longer STRC stays stable, more people would invest, providing an ever increasing opportunity for MS to buy bitcoin with the proceeds. All he needs is bitcoin appreciating more than 11.5%/year on average to do this essentially in perpetuity.

I wonder?
<snip> So then the $80k per year that he would be cashing out would be treated as ordinary income?

<snip>Do you already have an account that has STRC available as one of your options?

If I were to do it, then probably out of those above options, Robinhood would be the easiest for me, even though I would have to create an account with them.

1. It is not clear..Etrade says that it is a qualified dividend, but Microstrategy says that it is ROC (return of capital), qualified by MSTR not making profits. IMho, if MSTR does not make profits, then your dividends are not taxed AT ALL as long as the sum of your dividends does not exceed the capital you put in (or about 10.5mo at the current rate). After that-it is qualified (as far as I could tell). However, then I am not sure what happens with your cost basis. See here:
https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/bltbf424a6023790a3b/69b1add213aa3d7d8fe37ea4/8937_Combined_and_Signed_Final.pdf

2. Etrade definitely has it as STRC, did not check others. I already had one salvo with this when I bought a moderate amount, got divvy for 2-3 mo, then sold during one of those rapid declines (made a small amount overall), but thinking of buying again soon. I did it in a retirement account (IRA), so didn't get any tax documents for it.

[Hueristic]

Someone swapped $50,432,668 USDT for $36,500 $AAVE on Ethereum.

Was it a mistake or intentional?

https://etherscan.io/tx/0x9fa9feab3c1989a33424728c23e6de07a40a26a98ff7ff5139f3492ce430801f

Don't speak shitcoin, what does this mean?

[Leahized]

Someone swapped $50,432,668 USDT for $36,500 $AAVE on Ethereum.

Was it a mistake or intentional?

https://etherscan.io/tx/0x9fa9feab3c1989a33424728c23e6de07a40a26a98ff7ff5139f3492ce430801f

Don't speak shitcoin, what does this mean?

My eyes are stuck on value,