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That deepest dip in Sortino probably corresponded to Jan 2015 where many people got discouraged at the very end of the bear market.
That was one of the hardest moments for me, being approx. 45% under on a (for me) HUGE investment!!!! Everyone preached to me that I was wrong!!!
Since we are going through war stories, I am going to give some ballpark ideas to suggest that my level of bitcoin journey agony was likely worse than your bitcoin journey agony during that late 2014 and throughout 2015 timeframe.
My accounting kind of sucks, yet it seems to me that ballparkedly when I started in bitcoin my first few BTC purchases were a wee bit high, including my very first BTC purchase was right around $1,200 per BTC, yet I was paying a premium since it was a peer to peer transaction, yet that was the top of the then BTC price cycle so my further purchases through 2014 brought my average cost per BTC down (little by little) to about $570 by November of 2014 and then I was down to about $550 per BTC average by the beginning of 2015.
So there were various dips that the BTC price went down to right around (or slightly below) $160 in early January (so that would be 70% down for my then BTC holdings), yet I felt that throughout 2015, my average cost per BTC continued to come down in spite of some of my cashflow issues in that year and the BTC price dips did not go down as low at the end of 2015 like they had done in the beginning of 2015.. since it seems to me that buy the time we had another test of $200 in around September 2015, my average costs per BTC were gravitating down towards $500, so then that would mean that I was only 60% in the hole during that dip down to $200-ish.
Of course, I had some other issues, that currently contributes to my now wanting to proclaim that my average cost per BTC is around $1k.. I especially started making that claim since about 2017.. . .yet even using $1k per BTC as my then newly estimated average, there weren't any meaningful dips below $1k once we got past April of 2017.
My punchline still is that if you are proclaiming that you ONLY were down around 45%, then your level of down was much less than mine for around that time.
Just the beginning of my plate training, though I also felt maxpain in late 2017 after watching it go from 17,966 to 3k (again, I was told how stoopid I was).
Huh? How could that be pain, relatively speaking?
Earlier you had suggested that you were not selling any of your bitcoin, so you were going through pain based on your going from a higher state of profits (on paper) and then to a lower state of profits (on paper) and based on feeling stupid for not having had sold as your friends, family and perhaps other acquaintances were pointing at you and laughing because you could have had sold out at 40x-ish profits, but instead you were ONLY able to potentially sell in the ballpark of 6x profits..
That period was less painful to me, since I felt at that time that I was still more than 3x profits even at the lowest price points in that timeframe - even though there weren't really a loss of folks calling for $1,500 and even lower prices as if such level of dip "technically" "had to happen," and we later found out that such level of dip did not "have to happen."
Upgraded to titanium via ole Bob-O... Don't get me wrong, the last time, even though it was hard watching it go from 69k back to 17k, somehow it was less hard, as my .63 BTC had grown substantially.
I can relate to the 0.63 BTC - and I am going to say that my amounts were higher prior to 2017... but shit happens.
Remember, the pie-in-the-sky number was 32K; that was the dream.
That was Adam's number.. and yeah, folks were not necessarily on the same page as Adam.. but at the same time, such numbers were not outside of the visions of "where we could go.".. not that anyone was really selling in great quantities on the way up.
Oh, how far we've come!!! 126k down to now has been mind-bending but not a real concern. Could I have followed LFC and made more? Hell yeah, I could have, but I also could have gone all in on the block wars and followed Craig to my demise, fo sho. Do I wish I had more? Yeah, but I am extremely grateful to be in the position I am in now!
Selling is generally not a great route to building more holdings, even though surely when you get a large enough stash, then you should not necessarily hesitate to sell a bit here and there along the way... but yeah, maybe your stash size is one of those "in-between" sizes that is not quite there, yet... not that "we" really need to know particulars, unless you start to brag about how BIG of a BALLER you happen to be. hahahahaha
Also coming to terms with time-based selling rather than price-based selling has also taken the pressure off as I can always not sell, as the bot (Jjg) says.
Yeah, but I do both. I started price-based selling in 2015, and I started experimenting with time based selling in late 2022.
I personally think that price based selling makes more sense to start first. It seems easier to justify for selling first.
Time based selling seems to imply a higher cushion, just to be comfortable with it... yet
even right now, a guy with 15.2 BTC or more should feel sufficiently comfortable that he would be able to sustainably withdraw at $80k per year and to increase his dollar withdrawal amount by 7% per year.
Of course the amount that works for sustainable withdrawal would be higher or lower based on the quantity of BTC...and perhaps the extent to which a person might want to retain a bit of a cushion with his quantity of BTC so that he does not end up withdrawing too much too soon.
But if I am bettering my current life, then it's worth it,
It seems to me that your life should already be better by having had accumulated whatever stash that you have built up, even if you have not started to cash out yet.
as the one thing we can't buy is time, and I bet Bob doesn't regret (much, anyways) building the ranch or Jimbo's lake. One day I hope to be able to rent an Airbnb at both though!!!!
I just wish I could use my time more efficiently and not think about what-ifs; it will definitely drive a man crazy!
K
That's true.
If it wasn't for brash geopolitics and the absolute stupidity of politicians, Bitcoin would be at 100K at least.
I think we would not need btc at all if nationalism and crooked politicians.
That is true.
If people were honest
(ie. not self-interested) (and perhaps like robots?), then we would not need bitcoin.
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Yeah pick a number for the end of owning btc say 90years in my case.
So
90-69= 21 sales of my btc.
I think on my 70th birthday I should have 2 coins
So If I begin selling off in 2027
Jan 2027 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2028 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2029 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2030 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2031 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2032 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2033 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2034 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2035 sell 0.1btc
Jan 2036 sell 0.1btc
I will be 80 in 2037 and have a coin left
A simple plan
Even if you get up to 2 BTC by January 2027, then you still have to have 0.0105 BTC available when you turn 105 (that is if you turn 105) and you said that you want to have double that.
I think that you should wait a couple years before you make your first sale... maybe start at the earliest in Jan 2028.
You could also use my sustainable withdrawal tool, and sell 15% of the dollar value of the 200-WMA.
Right now, for 2 BTC, using 15% per year based on the 200WMA valuation, my tool (designed by bitmover) is showing $1,322 per month... I am sure it will be higher in 2027 or even likely to be higher if you were to wait until 2028
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