Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?



My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?

My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

OOM  - Don't you want Bitcoin to act more like gold? BTC derivatives (futures, options, ETFs) are designed to make Bitcoin act more like gold by increasing institutional access, enhancing liquidity, and potentially dampening extreme volatility.

Currently Bitcoin is acting more like a high-risk tech stock, diverging from gold's typical safe-haven role.

[philipma1957]

actually BTC is decoupling from the market

feb 5  59k     march 13 to 73k

market on feb 5 49k to 46.8k dow

nasdaq 22.5k feb 5
nasdaq 22.4k march 13






gold feb 5 4800
gold march 13 5091

silver price feb 5        78
silver price march 13  82


seems to me BTC has decoupled From all above

and has the biggest gain From feb 5 to March 13

this is a new bull run in the making due to Iran war with Trump

[BTCETFInvestor]

actually BTC is decoupling from the market

feb 5  59k     march 13 to 73k

market on feb 5 49k to 46.8k dow

nasdaq 22.5k feb 5
nasdaq 22.4k march 13






gold feb 5 4800
gold march 13 5091

silver price feb 5        78
silver price march 13  82


seems to me BTC has decoupled From all above

and has the biggest gain From feb 5 to March 13

this is a new bull run in the making due to Iran war with Trump

It's now matched the March 4th runup...

[Omj1014]

✂️
are you trolling?

why... what's so trollish about that?

obviously mEth and BTC are shown to be in the same class...

not realy....

ooooh! a PUZZLE!!


one is genius

one destroys

one is.. pink



did i win?

Haha, honestly, you might have won. It’s easy to get lost in the numbers and the charts, so it’s refreshing to see someone turn the discussion into a bit of a puzzle. It definitely makes you stop and think about the class these things are actually in. Nice one.

[Omj1014]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?



My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

Interesting take on the volume profile. I agree that the lack of relative increase since the Oct 26th phase is concerning it feels like we’re just bouncing between these liquidation clusters rather than building a sustainable trend. If that 0.2 probability for a bottom holds true, where do you see the next major magnet on the heatmap if this rally fails to find spot support?

[Hottiek]

Huh?  How could that be pain, relatively speaking?

Earlier you had suggested that you were not selling any of your bitcoin, so you were going through pain based on your going from a higher state of profits (on paper) and then to a lower state of profits (on paper) and based on feeling stupid for not having had sold as your friends, family and perhaps other acquaintances were pointing at you and laughing because you could have had sold out at 40x-ish profits, but instead you were ONLY able to potentially sell in the ballpark of 6x profits..

That period was less painful to me, since I felt at that time that I was still more than 3x profits even at the lowest price points in that timeframe - even though there weren't really a loss of folks calling for $1,500 and even lower prices as if such level of dip "technically" "had to happen," and we later found out that such level of dip did not "have to happen."

 I guess I never looked at it from a bot's view... The human in me was looking at lost potential profits, not how much I was currently up... Thinking you made the worst financial choice by not selling is the pain I am talking about. My friends were bad, but I beat myself up for being overinvested and wildly under... It worked out great in the end, and now, 10 years later, I say the pain is a lot less because I have started to only think about where we're at now, not where we were. If I had sold and missed out on buying back in, I would be 1000% worse off than I am now!!! As I haven't sold much in the last 10 years, I did buy some extremely expensive (relative) items with my cornz before I realized how powerful they really were! Also, hopefully my time-based withdrawal that I am currently fond of should last me till I am 90 before I am out of said cornz, and I have no kids to leave it to! Also, you don't have to worry about the price so much, as even though I set up those sales, I don't have to execute them unless I need to acquire dirty fiat for another toy I really have to have!!!
 We all get our cornz at the price we deserve them at!
K

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

I was merely summarizing the substantive contents of your previous post.

 

You don't even recognize your own level of dumb when you see it in another format.  

 


Yes.  We all make mistakes.  I will forgive you.  

I knew you had no peer reviewed papers

[cAPSLOCK]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?

My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

OOM  - Don't you want Bitcoin to act more like gold? BTC derivatives (futures, options, ETFs) are designed to make Bitcoin act more like gold by increasing institutional access, enhancing liquidity, and potentially dampening extreme volatility.

Currently Bitcoin is acting more like a high-risk tech stock, diverging from gold's typical safe-haven role.

Are you able to form the argument for the side you disagree with?   

There's a concept called theory of mind.  It is the very helpful ability to understand a different frame of thought than the one that you think or even believe in.

As, I think, has been laid out here many times before by various members of this thread. Many of us believe that the gold market has been fully captured because of a combination of custody and derivative assets which create synthetic gold which artificially lowers the price of gold.  Derivative assets give an enormous lever to the institutional big players to manipulate the price of an asset or commodity.  There are many good arguments for doing this aside from being able to game the asset if you have power. The most often used argument is smoothing out volatility This is me using theory of mind for what you believe because I don't think it is good for paper Bitcoin to exist. I think it is a net negative. But I know how to make your arguments.

But, hypothetical Bitcoin synthetically challenges Bitcoin's hard asset cap.  If you can virtually sell the same Bitcoin five times you have now changed it's properties in the domain where the hypothetical assets exist. Now suddenly we have a virtual cap of 105 million bitcoins instead of 21 million.

The majority of people in this thread do not want to see Bitcoin captured by institutions, even if that does mean our paper gains may be puffed up by it.  And the reason is we see the damage and control done to free financial markets by the institutions.

I was thinking of linking an article here, but there's plenty of writings by all kinds of people from wild-eyed, gold bugs to serious analysts who can see that the gold market was captured and controlled by a small number of players.  You can find that if you're interested.

Are you familiar with Charlie Munger's famous quote concerning Bitcoin? I believe it was the same time he referred to it as rat poison.  But the part I'm talking about is something along the lines of he didn't think it would be a success, but if it was they would "tame" it.

What you are arguing for is how they want to attempt to tame it.  But that's the thing. You're not even really arguing for it. You're just saying: "don't you want Bitcoin to be more like gold?"

And the answer from those of us here in the context of this question is resounding, no, we don't.

But here's the kicker. Bitcoin wins this in the end. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.  The reason it wins is it is designed to be permissionless. So as long as you can take custody of it easily, you can beat the system.

This thinking requires going more levels than just, "if institutions get involved then the price goes up." That's single-level thinking.  The magic is in the second and third order effects, which is where Bitcoin wins, but also where Charlie Munger thought they might be able to break it.

He was wrong. I imagine he knows that now. If they get the Internet where he is
I hope he gets to see its success.

[OutOfMemory]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?



My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

Interesting take on the volume profile. I agree that the lack of relative increase since the Oct 26th phase is concerning it feels like we’re just bouncing between these liquidation clusters rather than building a sustainable trend. If that 0.2 probability for a bottom holds true, where do you see the next major magnet on the heatmap if this rally fails to find spot support?

I consider $60k-ish as quite a strong support, but once it would be broken, we might better be ready to visit $50k-ish grounds. It's a matter of cascading sells (liquidating leveraged longs) and panic selling how deep we might go. As in the near past, we should have long downward wicks, because everything under $60k becomes really attractive "buy territory".
Still, i haven't seen the blood yet and the funding and economy metrics don't look too good, still the money has to come from somewhere.

[Lucius]

It's good to see that some in the US have the courage to provoke people who are obviously very easy on the trigger. Fortunately, they are US citizens, otherwise they would have been banned from entering the US or would have been deported immediately.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?

My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2

Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.

EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?

OOM  - Don't you want Bitcoin to act more like gold? BTC derivatives (futures, options, ETFs) are designed to make Bitcoin act more like gold by increasing institutional access, enhancing liquidity, and potentially dampening extreme volatility.

Currently Bitcoin is acting more like a high-risk tech stock, diverging from gold's typical safe-haven role.

Are you able to form the argument for the side you disagree with?    

There's a concept called theory of mind.  It is the very helpful ability to understand a different frame of thought than the one that you think or even believe in.

As, I think, has been laid out here many times before by various members of this thread. Many of us believe that the gold market has been fully captured because of a combination of custody and derivative assets which create synthetic gold which artificially lowers the price of gold.  Derivative assets give an enormous lever to the institutional big players to manipulate the price of an asset or commodity.  There are many good arguments for doing this aside from being able to game the asset if you have power. The most often used argument is smoothing out volatility This is me using theory of mind for what you believe because I don't think it is good for paper Bitcoin to exist. I think it is a net negative. But I know how to make your arguments.

But, hypothetical Bitcoin synthetically challenges Bitcoin's hard asset cap.  If you can virtually sell the same Bitcoin five times you have now changed it's properties in the domain where the hypothetical assets exist. Now suddenly we have a virtual cap of 105 million bitcoins instead of 21 million.

The majority of people in this thread do not want to see Bitcoin captured by institutions, even if that does mean our paper gains may be puffed up by it.  And the reason is we see the damage and control done to free financial markets by the institutions.

I was thinking of linking an article here, but there's plenty of writings by all kinds of people from wild-eyed, gold bugs to serious analysts who can see that the gold market was captured and controlled by a small number of players.  You can find that if you're interested.

Are you familiar with Charlie Munger's famous quote concerning Bitcoin? I believe it was the same time he referred to it as rat poison.  But the part I'm talking about is something along the lines of he didn't think it would be a success, but if it was they would "tame" it.

What you are arguing for is how they want to attempt to tame it.  But that's the thing. You're not even really arguing for it. You're just saying: "don't you want Bitcoin to be more like gold?"

And the answer from those of us here in the context of this question is resounding, no, we don't.

But here's the kicker. Bitcoin wins this in the end. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.  The reason it wins is it is designed to be permissionless. So as long as you can take custody of it easily, you can beat the system.

This thinking requires going more levels than just, "if institutions get involved then the price goes up." That's single-level thinking.  The magic is in the second and third order effects, which is where Bitcoin wins, but also where Charlie Munger thought they might be able to break it.

He was wrong. I imagine he knows that now. If they get the Internet where he is
I hope he gets to see its success.

@cAPSLOCK - I understand what you're saying, but I do not believe Bitcoin derivatives would be all bad, all the time. I encourage you to open your mind to consider the argument in favor of derivatives...
  

While the creation of "Paper Bitcoin" can feel like a betrayal of Bitcoin's scarcity, derivatives aren't inherently "bad." In a mature financial system, they serve as the plumbing that allows big players (miners, institutions, and ETFs) to operate.

Think of it like this: Bitcoin on-chain is the gold bar; Bitcoin derivatives are the armored trucks and insurance policies. You need the bar for value, but you need the trucks to move the economy.

The "Good" Side of Derivatives - Despite the risks of synthetic supply, derivatives provide several critical benefits to the Bitcoin ecosystem:

Risk Management for Miners: Bitcoin miners have massive electricity bills paid in fiat. They use futures to "lock in" a price for the Bitcoin they haven't mined yet. This ensures they don't go bankrupt if the price crashes, keeping the network's security (hashrate) stable.

Reduced Volatility: By allowing traders to "short" (bet against) the price, derivatives prevent "bubbles" from getting too out of control. They act as a counterweight to irrational exuberance, leading to smoother price discovery over the long term.

Institutional "On-Ramp": Many large funds are legally forbidden from holding "physical" Bitcoin because of custody regulations. Cash-settled derivatives allow them to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s price without needing a digital wallet, bringing billions of dollars of liquidity into the space.

Yield Generation: Investors can use "covered calls" (an options strategy) to earn interest on their Bitcoin holdings. This makes Bitcoin a productive asset rather than just one that sits idle in a vault.

[OgNasty]

Lower highs… Failure to rise above $74K has confirmed the downtrend remains in tact… I’ll admit I got nervous for a second, but everything is still happening almost identically to the pattern we saw 4 years ago. If this continues, we will see another big drop in the next few weeks.

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I had exactly the same plan of selling [my portfolio]/20 yearly plan starting at a certain age, then I got there (in 2023) and I didn't pull the trigger for that yearly sale.
Why? Maybe because I didn't need the cash or maybe bitcoin was in ascendance and selling when it was rising rapidly felt sub-optimal.
The prior plan (that i first thought about in 2017) did not even float back to my conscience.
It's only now I remembered having it back then when I was looking at the Phil's post.
I guess plans come and go, depending on your current circumstances and not what you might have thought about many years before.

I thought that you plan was to never sell and to just loan against your bitcoin, "like rich people do."

The plan where I sell equal btc amounts every year after reaching certain age was an earlier plan (circa 2017), now superseded by the borrow plan, which was not implemented yet.
For now, I just hodl.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

To the moon!

Massive bear trap still in play. Momentum is shifting to uber bullish. 1 vote away for clarity act, crypto bill underway. People don't know what's coming in 2026/2027.

Everyone would be super happy even if half of this was realized, even current "bears".
Probability: low, but not zero.

EDIT: If bitcoin would start to deviate from the "Cowen's line" [an average of ROI % decline in the prior 3 bear markets during the fourth year, plotted monthly], bears might panic.
What I call "Cowen's line" is described here:
https://youtu.be/9uAVH56iJwk?t=97