Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

1st, congrats to OOM, retirement rocks

2nd, buddy we be counting on you, be nice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

I will post quote free in an effort to help the bob bot.

my stock diversity move is as follows.

10 shares of spcx on kraken
  3 shares of spcx on Robinhood
  1 share of Nvidia on Robinhood


1 share limit buy for spcx at 174 on Robinhood

and Robinhood has some cash on hand as I will buy more stocks soon.

most likely more spcx and Nvidia.

over and out.

Phil - I bought NVDA in 2024 for $116/share and I wish I had bought ten times more. But the big tech winners have been PLTR I bought at $63, MU I bought at $95, DELL I bought at $115 and AMD I bought at $125.  I think they all have a lot more upside as do most tech and AI related stocks... I might add some SPCX just for the sake of owning some...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html


"Ukraine strikes Moscow oil refinery amid large-scale drone attack"












looks like this war is heating up

feels a bit like whack a mole.

stop 1 conflict and up pops another

[BTCETFInvestor]

Below is the exact Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding

The agreement is officially titled the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" because Pakistan served as the central mediator that successfully brokered the negotiations between the United States and Iran.

When the conflict erupted, Pakistan - under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif - stepped in to act as the primary diplomatic bridge between Washington and Tehran. The intense diplomatic efforts and rounds of talks that led to the framework were hosted and facilitated in Pakistan's capital, which is why both the diplomatic process (referred to by Iranian officials as the "Islamabad Negotiations") and the resulting 14-point document bear the city's name.

While the historic 14 points were ultimately signed electronically by both nations' leaders and a formal physical ceremony is slated for Switzerland to begin the next 60 days of technical talks, the structural foundation of the peace deal was entirely laid in Islamabad.

United States of America President Donald J. Trump signed the physical copy of this document on June 17, 2026 while attending a dinner at the Palace of Versailles in France, where he was concluding the G7 summit.



Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding

Between The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America

Preamble

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, hereinafter “the Parties,” affirm their intention to de escalate tensions, restore regional stability, and pursue a comprehensive final agreement. Acting in good faith, the Parties agree to the following terms.

1. Cessation of Hostilities
The Parties declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Both Parties commit to refraining from the threat or use of force against one another and to respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final agreement will reaffirm these commitments.

2. Non Interference
The Parties undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interference in each other’s internal affairs.

3. Negotiation Timeline
The Parties commit to negotiating and achieving a final agreement within 60 days, extendable only by mutual consent.

4. Removal of Naval Blockade
Upon signing this MoU:
•   The United States will begin removing its naval blockade and related impediments against Iran.
•   Full removal will be completed within 30 days.
•   Vessel traffic will be restored proportionally to pre war levels.
•   U.S. forces will withdraw from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final agreement.

5. Maritime Passage and Strait of Hormuz
Upon signing:
•   Iran will facilitate safe passage of commercial vessels, without charge, for 60 days.
•   Traffic will resume immediately and reach full capacity within 30 days, subject to demining and technical restoration.
•   Iran will consult with Oman and other littoral states regarding future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with international law.

6. Reconstruction and Economic Development
The United States, together with regional partners, will develop a mutually agreed reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran totaling at least $300 billion.

7. Nuclear Weapons Commitment
Iran commits not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.

8. Enriched Uranium Stockpiles
Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles will be addressed through on site down blending under IAEA supervision, using the minimum necessary methodology.

9. Oil Sanctions Waiver
The United States will waive sanctions to allow Iran to sell oil during the 60 day negotiation period.

10. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened to maritime traffic.

11. Monitoring Mechanism
The Parties will establish a joint monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of this MoU.

12. Sanctions Relief Framework
The final agreement will include a schedule for lifting U.S., U.N., and IAEA sanctions.

13. Frozen Assets
Frozen Iranian assets may be released as part of the final agreement, contingent on Iran’s compliance with its commitments.

14. United Nations Endorsement
The final agreement will be submitted for endorsement through a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.


Signatures
For the Islamic Republic of Iran
Name: Title: Date:



For the United States of America
Name: Title: Date:

These are the three main concerns with the MOU with Iran as I see it:

1. How money coming into Iran, funded from neighboring Middle East countries, or money coming from the sale of Iranian oil is actually used.

Any money, regardless of source needs to be put into escrow and controlled by the U.S. to prevent Iran from using it in a nefarious way - such as buying nuclear weapons or funneling money to their proxies like Lebanon that has a history of targeting Israel. Money funded by neighboring Middle East countries (that care to participate or invest in Iran) must only be used only for reconstruction and economic development. Frozen Iranian assets released back to Iran by the U.S.must be controlled by the U.S. to make certain it is used only for reconstruction and economic development.      

2. Who controls the International waters of Strait of Hormuz, and to make sure no fees are ever charged for free passage in the strait.

3. The on-site 'blending-down' of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles must also include U.S. supervision along with IAEA supervision.  The high-speed centrifuges used to enrich uranium must be totally destroyed under U.S. supervision.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html


"Ukraine strikes Moscow oil refinery amid large-scale drone attack"




looks like this war is heating up

feels a bit like whack a mole.

stop 1 conflict and up pops another

I wonder what some Russians who claimed that Moscow should not be attacked are saying now. I wrote about a month ago that Ukraine must retaliate against Moscow with the same ferocity as they are attacking Kiev, and this is what is happening now. Moscow is some 500 km from the Ukrainian-Russian border, and the fact that these cheap drones manage to fly such a distance without being shot down speaks volumes about the state of the Russian military.

The war is not heating up, unfortunately it has lost focus because of Iran - it is in full swing all the time.

~snip~
If you ask me, that's a weak response to the massacre that the bloodthirsty Russians carried out on Kiev, in which over 20 civilians were killed. While the Ukrainians target refineries and weapons factories, the Russians in most cases target civilian facilities with the intention of killing as many civilians as possible and breaking the Ukrainian spirit. In my opinion, the only sensible response would be an equal attack on Moscow.

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Wall Observer Digest - 2026-06-18 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-18 09:48 AM CT

Thursday's Bitcoin grind is defined by the weight of $2.1 billion in ETF outflows, keeping price firmly below the $68,940 30-day average despite the Fear & Greed index showing a slight reprieve from Extreme Fear. The market is digesting mixed signals from the Fed and geopolitical tensions, resulting in a flat, pressured session rather than a decisive move.

Keep a close eye on MicroStrategy's liquidity needs and whether their potential BTC sales continue to cap upside momentum. Watch for any shift in sentiment as investors weigh the probability of near-term rate cuts against persistent inflationary pressures.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $63,833.00 USD (-2.01% 24h change).
Bitcoin is trading at $63,833, sitting roughly 7.4% below its 30-day moving average of $68,940, confirming the bearish pressure from recent ETF outflows. The 24-hour change of -2.01% reflects a lack of buying conviction, while the 3-day standard deviation of ~$720 indicates moderate but manageable volatility. Spot premiums remain slightly positive across major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken, suggesting that while spot demand is present, it isn't strong enough to overcome the macro headwinds. The market is currently in a holding pattern, waiting for clarity on Fed policy and corporate sell-side pressure.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

ETF Outflows: $2.1 billion in outflows is the primary driver of current price pressure, signaling institutional caution.
MicroStrategy Sell Pressure: Concerns over MSTR's dividend obligations and potential BTC sales are creating a persistent overhang on the price.
Fed & Geopolitics: Mixed signals from Fed Chair Warsh and Trump's Iran comments are keeping investors on the sidelines regarding rate cuts and oil flows.
Yield Demand: A 120% jump in Yield Basis deposits shows investors are seeking BTC exposure with yield rather than exiting positions entirely.

TOP STORIES

1. Crypto market treads thin ice following Warsh FOMC, Trump Iran comments
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/crypto-market-tread-thin-ice-following-warsh-fomc-trump-iran-comments
Published: 2026-06-17
Summary: Bitcoin remains under pressure due to $2.1 billion in ETF outflows and a persistent discount relative to global Bitcoin/USDT pairs. Markets wobbled after President Trump indicated the Iran peace deal was not final, raising fears of prolonged oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a new direction during his first committee meeting, with investors questioning the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts. Weakness in Strategy's STRC stock highlights concerns over monthly dividend obligations and potential share dilution to meet cash requirements. Despite crude oil prices falling, skepticism persists regarding a sustainable rally to $80,000 as institutional demand remains subdued.

2. Bitcoin Price Sets $64.5K Week-to-Date Low as Strategy Selling Worries Return
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-sets-645k-week-to-date-low-as-strategy-selling-worries-return
Published: 2026-06-17
Summary: Bitcoin dipped to a weekly low of $64,500 as market participants weighed corporate sell pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. QCP Capital highlighted that concerns over MicroStrategy potentially selling more BTC to fund dividend payments are clouding the price outlook, keeping it below the $66,000 level. Although MicroStrategy's recent note buyback extended its liquidity runway, the overhang continues to prevent Bitcoin from fully participating in broader macro optimism. Attention is also focused on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who faces a difficult balancing act between inflationary trends and political pressure for rate cuts. Market data indicates no immediate odds of a rate cut, with some analysts predicting a rate hike by year-end as a potential headwind for crypto assets.

3. Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $69,000
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/buy-bitcoin-while-under-69-151100537.html
Published: 2026-06-17 11:11 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has declined 27% year-to-date, trading around $63,000, which is half of its all-time high of $126,000. Despite recent losses, the author highlights Bitcoin's historical resilience, noting it has never had back-to-back years of losses and has delivered triple-digit returns in four of the past eight years. The $69,000 price level is identified as a key psychological barrier and previous all-time high, making current prices appear like a bargain relative to past peaks. While online prediction markets suggest only a 17% chance of hitting $100,000 this year, the author anticipates explosive returns by 2027 due to negative market sentiment. Ultimately, the article argues that Bitcoin is undervalued and acts as a coiled spring ready to rebound, though it notes Bitcoin was not included in a recent list of top 10 recommended stocks.

4. Mexican Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Bets 70% of His Portfolio on Bitcoin, Eyes $1 Million Price
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/mexican-billionaire-ricardo-salinas-bets
Published: 2026-06-17 12:25 PM CT
Summary: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas has increased his Bitcoin allocation from 10% in 2020 to 70% of his investment portfolio, driven by a long-held belief in hard money and fiat devaluation. He argues that Bitcoin is superior to gold and fiat currency because it is unseizable and can be transferred instantly worldwide without governmental intervention. Salinas recently convinced his wife to mortgage their home to buy Bitcoin, encouraging ordinary investors to similarly transform their home equity into Bitcoin exposure. He supports his bullish outlook with a historical comparison showing that London homes have become significantly cheaper in terms of Bitcoin over the last decade. While acknowledging fellow bulls like Cathie Wood and Michael Saylor, Salinas predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, though he admits he does not know when that will occur.

5. Yield Basis Deposits Jump 120% in 2 Weeks as Investors Seek BTC Yield Without Selling
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/yield-basis-deposits-jump-120-in-2-weeks-as-investors-seek-btc-yield-without-selling
Published: 2026-06-18
Summary: Deposits into Yield Basis' new Hybrid Vaults surged by over 120% in under two weeks, rising from 1.7 million to 3.8 million crvUSD as investors seek yield without sacrificing crypto exposure. The protocol addresses the challenge of liquidity providers falling behind passive holders during sharp price moves by offering a strategy that preserves BTC and ETH exposure while generating returns. Users deposit BTC to borrow an equal value of crvUSD, creating a leveraged liquidity position on Curve that is automatically rebalanced to maintain exposure and earn trading fees. Yield Basis founder Michael Egorov highlighted this trend as evidence of rising demand for infrastructure that allows investors to generate yield or access liquidity without fully exiting their positions. The protocol has surpassed $3.3 billion in cumulative trading volume and currently holds approximately $126 million in total value locked, with significant liquidity coming from WETH and cbBTC pools.

6. Illinois Set to Begin Taxing Bitcoin, Crypto Transactions as Critics Slam 'Most Punitive' Tax
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/illinois-set-begin-taxing-bitcoin-172237413.html
Published: 2026-06-17 01:22 PM CT
Summary: Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed the Digital Asset Tax Act into law as part of the 2027 budget, instituting a 0.2% tax on crypto activity within the state. The new tax, which takes effect on January 1, 2027, applies to assets transferred or purchased by individuals with a primary place of use in Illinois. Major crypto exchanges will be responsible for collecting the tax, which lawmakers expect to generate up to $60 million annually. The Crypto Council for Innovation has criticized the measure as the most punitive digital asset tax in the country, warning it will drive innovation out of the state.

7. Bitcoin's nemesis, the Dollar Index, is on the verge of a major breakout
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/06/18/bitcoin-s-nemesis-the-dollar-index-is-on-the-verge-of-a-major-breakout
Published: 2026-06-18
Summary: Bitcoin is trading near $63,900 and has declined for three consecutive days as the U.S. Dollar Index approaches a critical breakout point. The Dollar Index has gained 0.26% to 100.66, extending recent gains and positioning itself to break out of a 13-month trading range. This potential breakout is driven by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns that interest rates may rise in the U.S. Historically, Bitcoin moves inversely to the dollar, with a recent 90-day correlation coefficient of minus 0.82 suggesting further pressure on the cryptocurrency.

8. Buying Bitcoin Below Its 200-Week Average Has Historically Delivered Over 100% in Median Returns, Kraken Says
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/18/buying-bitcoin-below-its-200-week-average-has-historically-delivered-over-100-in-median-returns-kraken-says
Published: 2026-06-18
Summary: Bitcoin briefly dipped below its 200-week simple moving average twice in the past two weeks, a rare event that Kraken identifies as a strong entry point for buyers. According to Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, historical data shows that buying Bitcoin below this level has resulted in median returns exceeding 113% over the following year. The two-year median return for these entries is even higher at 313%, with the metric chosen to avoid skewing from extreme outliers. Investors who accumulated Bitcoin at these levels experienced minimal pain, with a median time to break even of just two days and a median maximum drawdown of only 9% over the subsequent year. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the historical record suggests that these levels have offered immense value for long-term holders.

9. CME Group to Sue CFTC Over Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Approval in Clash Over Dodd-Frank Classification
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cme-group-to-sue-cftc-over-bitcoin
Published: 2026-06-18
Summary: CME Group plans to file a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its approval of bitcoin perpetual futures by Kalshi. The core dispute centers on whether these contracts are classified as futures or swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act, with CME CEO Terrence Duffy arguing they are swaps. The CFTC defended the approval as a move to bring crypto derivatives under domestic regulation, while CME claimed the process was flawed and rushed. This legal challenge coincides with a separate court ruling that limited the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. The announcement was made by outgoing CEO Duffy before his successor, Lynne Fitzpatrick, takes over in March 2027.

10. Bitcoin capitulation 'twice as weak' after spot liquidity turns supportive: Glassnode
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-capitulation-twice-as-weak-as-spot-liquidity-turns-supportive-glassnode
Published: 2026-06-17

(*sigh* No summary text for story #10. Will troubleshoot in a bit. -BobL)

[BTCETFInvestor]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html


"Ukraine strikes Moscow oil refinery amid large-scale drone attack"




looks like this war is heating up

feels a bit like whack a mole.

stop 1 conflict and up pops another

I wonder what some Russians who claimed that Moscow should not be attacked are saying now. I wrote about a month ago that Ukraine must retaliate against Moscow with the same ferocity as they are attacking Kiev, and this is what is happening now. Moscow is some 500 km from the Ukrainian-Russian border, and the fact that these cheap drones manage to fly such a distance without being shot down speaks volumes about the state of the Russian military.

The war is not heating up, unfortunately it has lost focus because of Iran - it is in full swing all the time.

~snip~
If you ask me, that's a weak response to the massacre that the bloodthirsty Russians carried out on Kiev, in which over 20 civilians were killed. While the Ukrainians target refineries and weapons factories, the Russians in most cases target civilian facilities with the intention of killing as many civilians as possible and breaking the Ukrainian spirit. In my opinion, the only sensible response would be an equal attack on Moscow.

I find it a real shame that neighboring European countries didn't step up early on to help Ukraine against Russia's unprovoked invasion and devastatingly deadly attacks on one of their neighbors. It says a lot about those leaders and why NATO is thought to be damn near worthless in the view of the United States. It's beyond pathetic!  

[BTCETFInvestor]

Thursday's Bitcoin grind is defined by the weight of $2.1 billion in ETF outflows, keeping price firmly below the $68,940 30-day average despite the Fear & Greed index showing a slight reprieve from Extreme Fear. The market is digesting mixed signals from the Fed and geopolitical tensions, resulting in a flat, pressured session rather than a decisive move.

@BobClawblaw - Actually, Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) posted $14.02 million in net inflows on June 17, 2026 – the largest single-day haul among all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, on a day when the broader ETF complex bled $82.16 million. The divergence is not a rounding error. It is a directional signal worth reading carefully, because it arrived hours after the Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 5.25%–5.50%.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[joker_josue]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html

I always find the photos of these news, which show some people, funny.
Most of those who appear in these photos, are like nothing had happened and that is another normal day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[spooderman]

hello again all, haven't posted here in years.

Your post was deleted because you posted a bare link with no context -- this type of post will be deleted in most places on the forum by policy, not because of some grand conspiracy to keep you down. Now you're using your misunderstanding to get sympathy likes on X.

Undermining the credibility of the forum for likes is pretty shitty man.

Ocean mining astroturfing via a hacked (?) account?

Pretty much everything I post in the various Bitcoin organs is aggressively removed actually.

The title of the post had the context too.

It isn't about "me", it's an attempt to stifle discussion and awareness around BIP110/RDTS.

[philipma1957]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html

I always find the photos of these news, which show some people, funny.
Most of those who appear in these photos, are like nothing had happened and that is another normal day.

because essentially war never ends or changes anything at all.

War happening oh my god we are going to die.

no war oh my god we are going to die.

in both cases death is a mortal lock.

So if you are in a place with extra faster death ie a city being bombed death is still death and you get used to it.


It reminds me of where I grew up in the 60's and 70's NYC with 2,000 murders a year for a lot of those years.

And my police precinct east New York 75th precinct had the highest murder rate in the entire USA for 3 or 4 years in a row.

Every night in the summer when sound carries you could hear gunshots.

I walked around not really any more afraid then I do now in Howell NJ with a murder rate 10x lower.

[OutOfMemory]

Moscow is burning.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-082536474.html


"Ukraine strikes Moscow oil refinery amid large-scale drone attack"




looks like this war is heating up

feels a bit like whack a mole.

stop 1 conflict and up pops another

I wonder what some Russians who claimed that Moscow should not be attacked are saying now. I wrote about a month ago that Ukraine must retaliate against Moscow with the same ferocity as they are attacking Kiev, and this is what is happening now. Moscow is some 500 km from the Ukrainian-Russian border, and the fact that these cheap drones manage to fly such a distance without being shot down speaks volumes about the state of the Russian military.

The war is not heating up, unfortunately it has lost focus because of Iran - it is in full swing all the time.

~snip~
If you ask me, that's a weak response to the massacre that the bloodthirsty Russians carried out on Kiev, in which over 20 civilians were killed. While the Ukrainians target refineries and weapons factories, the Russians in most cases target civilian facilities with the intention of killing as many civilians as possible and breaking the Ukrainian spirit. In my opinion, the only sensible response would be an equal attack on Moscow.

It's really fascinating. Ukraine's drone forces are 2% of the army to date, responsible for two thirds of effective strikes against Ivan.
The commander of the drone unit urged Selensky to accelerate development and production of attack and interception drones and shift weight from ground forces to trained FPV controllers, not even a year ago, and look at the results now.
Moscow is in big trouble. If you look at russian war history, their "great army", which is in fact a million-troops-strong meat grinder, they repeat their mistakes. I don't mean the mistake to start that useless war, which they did on behalf of Putin's idea of "Great Russia" and cementing his power over the state, in fear of the wrath of the little emperor.
Russia is a terror state, by definition, and should be dealt with as such.
Slava Ukraini!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com