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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 25 (35.7%)
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No - other (explain below) - 11 (15.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26992461 times)
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June 20, 2026, 08:18:34 AM
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BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-19 09:07 PM CT

[...]

6. Adam Back bets on $1M Bitcoin before 2028 halving
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/early-bitcoiner-makes-bold-prediction-202622597.html
Published: 2026-06-19 04:26 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream CEO Adam Back has a standing bet that Bitcoin hits $1 million before the next halving in 2028. He argues the jump from $500K to $1M is closer than most realize. Back's credibility comes from creating Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi used for Bitcoin. The prediction relies on the historical pattern of price cycles following supply cuts. Current prices are still far from the $500K milestone, making this a long shot rather than a guarantee.

[...]

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I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.
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June 20, 2026, 11:02:43 AM


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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 20, 2026, 11:18:33 AM
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I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

pessimist.

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......

1 year
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June 20, 2026, 01:17:37 PM

good morning w.o.

just woke up  and read some posts

I like a 1 million dollar coin as much as the other.


I think I prefer spcx going to 2000 a share

but whatever.
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June 20, 2026, 01:29:34 PM
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if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......

1 year

The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.

But one public supporter of Bitcoin must do overly confident predictions, no matter how wrong they are, else they get overlooked. The plebs will forget the wrong predictions in a few months anyway.
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June 20, 2026, 01:30:24 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), cAPSLOCK (1)

good morning w.o.

just woke up  and read some posts

I like a 1 million dollar coin as much as the other.


I think I prefer spcx going to 2000 a share

but whatever.







ION: Google doesn't allow search without JS now!
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June 20, 2026, 01:55:46 PM
Last edit: June 20, 2026, 02:12:11 PM by cAPSLOCK
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BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-19 09:07 PM CT

[...]

6. Adam Back bets on $1M Bitcoin before 2028 halving
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/early-bitcoiner-makes-bold-prediction-202622597.html
Published: 2026-06-19 04:26 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream CEO Adam Back has a standing bet that Bitcoin hits $1 million before the next halving in 2028. He argues the jump from $500K to $1M is closer than most realize. Back's credibility comes from creating Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi used for Bitcoin. The prediction relies on the historical pattern of price cycles following supply cuts. Current prices are still far from the $500K milestone, making this a long shot rather than a guarantee.

[...]

Version: v1.1.14 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf | llama.cpp b9592 (sm_121) | RAM: 80475M free / 124546M | GPU: NVIDIA GB10

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

You beat me to it but I was going to do an imitation...

***On camera. Wearing sunglasses for some reason and speaking in a somewhat breathy, deep, gravely voice***

People, people. <plays with nose>, please GOD you have to understand... If Adam Back does not promise one thing then how can you even believe him?   How can you even... believe him?

People... Seriously.  <scratching half of face> If.... If he can't promise just ONE thing. Then you can't trust him... At.... All.

Don't you see??  Please God. Its as clear as day.

Adam Back MUST promise to simply eat his dick on live TV if the price does not cross 1 million USD and then...  And then... Oh I promise you. <seems to believe a fly has landed on his nose.> it will be that price.  Before the halving in 2028. There...  simply...  is.... no... other way... <deep knowing chuckle>

Be safe.  And until Janice and I see you next time.  Assuming they don't catch me... <Adjusts sunglasses and reaches to turn off the camera. >

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BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-20 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-20 09:06 AM CT

It is Saturday, and Bitcoin is grinding sideways in thin weekend liquidity, holding steady at $63,362 despite the market being stuck in Extreme Fear for a seventh straight day. The dominant story isn't the price action itself, but the bleeding balance sheets of miners who are now selling BTC just to keep the lights on, with JPMorgan noting that prices have sat below the $78,000 production cost for five months. This structural weakness is keeping the Fear & Greed index pinned at 23, even as the sentiment shows a slight +5 point improvement over the week.

Keep an eye on whether the thin weekend liquidity allows for a quick snap-back or if the miner selling pressure continues to cap any upside. The key metric to watch is the spot premium; with Coinbase and Kraken trading in the $63,240s, any divergence from the $63,362 spot price will signal where the immediate buying interest lies.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $63,362.00 USD (+0.30% 24h change).
Bitcoin is trading roughly 6.9% below its 30-day moving average of $68,023, confirming that the recent -1.76% three-day decline has put it in a clear downtrend relative to the monthly norm. The 24-hour change of +0.30% is effectively flat, suggesting a pause in the selling rather than a reversal, especially given the low volatility (3-day StdDev of 253.17) typical of a Saturday. While the estimated hashrate of 650 EH/s remains robust, the fact that miners are selling 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 alone indicates that supply overhang is real and structural, not just technical. The spot arbitrage premium is negligible, with Coinbase at $63,244 and Kraken at $63,242, showing no significant regional bid strength to drive a breakout.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

Miner Solvency Crisis: Public mining companies have sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 to cover expenses, with JPMorgan highlighting that prices have remained below the $78,000 production cost for five months, forcing weaker operators offline.
AI Pivot for Revenue: Miners are signing tens of billions in AI data center deals to survive squeezed margins, trading power and cooling infrastructure rather than ASICs to generate cash flow independent of Bitcoin's price.
Franklin Templeton's Dividend ETF: Franklin Templeton filed for Bitcoin-linked dividend ETFs that use 95% US equity dividends to systematically buy Bitcoin, aiming to build exposure without requiring new capital from investors amid recent ETF outflows.
Strategy's Liquidity Stress: Strategy's preferred stock (STRC) dropped below its $100 par value to $83 after a $1.5 billion bond buyback drained cash reserves, signaling investor anxiety over the company's ability to maintain dividends despite its massive Bitcoin holdings.

TOP STORIES

1. JPMorgan: Miners Bleeding as BTC Stays Below Production Cost
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-says-20-of-miners-operating-at-a-loss-as-bitcoin-trades-below-production-cost
Published: 2026-06-20 04:30 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin is trading around $63,352, sitting well below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of $78,000. This gap has persisted for five straight months, pushing roughly 20% of miners into unprofitable territory. Public mining companies sold over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026 just to cover operating expenses. That sales volume already exceeds their total for all of 2025, signaling thinning margins. Mining difficulty is reacting faster to price swings, with recent drops indicating weaker operators are powering down.

2. Bitcoin Mining Discount and the AI Pivot
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/gominings-kirill-solovev-says-bitcoin-mining-trades-at-a-discount-urges-new-payment-rails
Published: 2026-06-20 06:30 AM CT
Summary: Public Bitcoin miners are signing tens of billions in AI data center deals to survive squeezed margins after the 2024 halving. They are trading their power and cooling infrastructure, not their ASICs, for these contracts. Network has rate has dropped from its peak above 1,100 exahashes, but the math adjusts and the network stays secure. Gomining's Kirill Solovev argues that pure-play mining infrastructure is undervalued compared to the asset itself. He proposes a new payment layer, GoBTC, that settles on-chain with a 0.2% fee to bridge the gap between mining and retail payments.

3. Franklin Templeton Files for Bitcoin-Linked Dividend ETFs
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/franklin-templeton-bitcoin-drip-etfs-reinvest-stock-dividends-btc-exposure
Published: 2026-06-19
Summary: Franklin Templeton filed for two new ETFs that turn stock dividends into Bitcoin exposure. The funds start with 95% in US equities and 5% in Bitcoin. Dividends from the stocks are systematically reinvested into the crypto allocation. This approach aims to build Bitcoin holdings over time without requiring new capital from investors. The move comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs see consecutive weeks of net outflows.

4. Ricardo Salinas Pliego Bets Big on Bitcoin Over Real Estate
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/billionaire-says-bitcoin-better-investment-025300233.html
Published: 2026-06-19 10:53 PM CT
Summary: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego holds 70% of his investable portfolio in Bitcoin, viewing it as superior to real estate. He argues that Bitcoin's price appreciation outpaces the dollar's inflation, citing a drop in the dollar's purchasing power since 1976. Salinas suggests Bitcoin could reach $1 million within a decade, aligning with targets from Michael Saylor and Cathie Wood. The article notes he has advised mortgaging homes to buy Bitcoin, a move considered aggressive even for bulls. Despite the bullish narrative, the author points out that Bitcoin was not included in Motley Fool's current top 10 stock picks.

5. STRC Drops Below Par as Strategy Burns Cash to Buy Notes
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/20/how-strc-lost-its-par-the-timeline-behind-strategy-s-preferred-stock-meltdown
Published: 2026-06-20
Summary: Strategy's preferred stock STRC fell to $83, breaking its $100 par value target for the first time since July 2025. The slide was triggered by a $1.5 billion bond buyback that drained the company's cash reserve, leaving only six months of dividend coverage instead of the planned twenty-four. Bitcoin's drop from $80,000 to the low $60,000s eroded the underlying asset value, compounding investor anxiety. Strategy sold a tiny fraction of its Bitcoin holdings to signal liquidity, but the market saw it as a sign of stress rather than strength. With an $11 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin stash and dilutive capital raises, confidence in the dividend payout is weakening.

6. Kalshi Eyes IPO as Revenue Hits $2 Billion
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/prediction-market-kalshi-eyes-ipo
Published: 2026-06-19 10:41 AM CT
Summary: Prediction market giant Kalshi is in informal talks with investment banks about a potential IPO for 2027 or 2028. Annualized revenue has surpassed $2 billion, tripling since November 2025. Trading volume spiked during the NBA playoffs and FIFA World Cup, reaching $16.81 billion in May. The company recently raised $1 billion in Series F funding at a $22 billion valuation. Kalshi dominates U.S.

7. Bitcoin Stalls Near $63K as Miners Bleed and Macro Weighs
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/19/live-markets-bitcoin-has-traded-below-its-mining-cost-for-five-months-squeezing-miners
Published: 2026-06-19
Summary: Bitcoin is hovering just below $63,000, marking its third consecutive quarterly decline and longest losing streak since 2022. Mining profitability is under pressure, with about 20% of miners unprofitable and public miners selling over 32,000 BTC in Q1 to cover costs. The broader market remains flat due to U.S. holiday trading, while the BTC-to-gold ratio suggests a potential bottom based on historical cycles. Meanwhile, Strategy's STRC token saw a sharp selloff driven by leveraged investors rather than fundamental credit weakness.

8. Franklin Templeton Files for Two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/franklin-templeton-files-two-etfs-bitcoin
Published: 2026-06-19
Summary: Franklin Templeton filed for two new ETFs that channel stock dividends into Bitcoin exposure. The funds, tracking US large-cap and innovation indices, start with 95% equities and 5% Bitcoin. Dividends from the stock holdings buy Bitcoin-linked instruments rather than cashing out to investors. A hard cap limits Bitcoin exposure to 20% of the portfolio between quarterly rebalances. This move adds to Franklin Templeton's growing digital asset footprint alongside recent tokenization partnerships.

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June 20, 2026, 02:13:21 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), cAPSLOCK (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-19 09:07 PM CT

[...]

6. Adam Back bets on $1M Bitcoin before 2028 halving
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/early-bitcoiner-makes-bold-prediction-202622597.html
Published: 2026-06-19 04:26 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream CEO Adam Back has a standing bet that Bitcoin hits $1 million before the next halving in 2028. He argues the jump from $500K to $1M is closer than most realize. Back's credibility comes from creating Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi used for Bitcoin. The prediction relies on the historical pattern of price cycles following supply cuts. Current prices are still far from the $500K milestone, making this a long shot rather than a guarantee.

[...]

Version: v1.1.14 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf | llama.cpp b9592 (sm_121) | RAM: 80475M free / 124546M | GPU: NVIDIA GB10

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Adam Back should be careful not to end up like John McAfee who predicted the same price at the cost of his masculinity, and of course we all know how that ended. In any case, let him avoid holidays in Spain because they really like to catch and extradite US citizens (of course if they survive prison).

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June 20, 2026, 02:17:16 PM

OK the workaround is to set "accessibility.blockautorefresh" to true.

fucking google.
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BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-19 09:07 PM CT

[...]

6. Adam Back bets on $1M Bitcoin before 2028 halving
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/early-bitcoiner-makes-bold-prediction-202622597.html
Published: 2026-06-19 04:26 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream CEO Adam Back has a standing bet that Bitcoin hits $1 million before the next halving in 2028. He argues the jump from $500K to $1M is closer than most realize. Back's credibility comes from creating Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi used for Bitcoin. The prediction relies on the historical pattern of price cycles following supply cuts. Current prices are still far from the $500K milestone, making this a long shot rather than a guarantee.

[...]

Version: v1.1.14 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf | llama.cpp b9592 (sm_121) | RAM: 80475M free / 124546M | GPU: NVIDIA GB10

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Adam Back should be careful not to end up like John McAfee who predicted the same price at the cost of his masculinity, and of course we all know how that ended. In any case, let him avoid holidays in Spain because they really like to catch and extradite US citizens (of course if they survive prison).



Hopefully the people who did not get it the first time will reread my last post after having read yours. 😁
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June 20, 2026, 03:00:58 PM
Merited by NeuroticFish (3)

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......

1 year

The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.

But one public supporter of Bitcoin must do overly confident predictions, no matter how wrong they are, else they get overlooked. The plebs will forget the wrong predictions in a few months anyway.

That's exactly my prediction ($1M/BTC in 2034).

And even this is overly optimistic IMHO. But much more probable than that McAfee-style stunt of Adam Back.
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June 20, 2026, 03:12:34 PM

BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-19 09:07 PM CT

[...]

6. Adam Back bets on $1M Bitcoin before 2028 halving
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/early-bitcoiner-makes-bold-prediction-202622597.html
Published: 2026-06-19 04:26 PM CT
Summary: Blockstream CEO Adam Back has a standing bet that Bitcoin hits $1 million before the next halving in 2028. He argues the jump from $500K to $1M is closer than most realize. Back's credibility comes from creating Hashcash, the proof-of-work system Satoshi used for Bitcoin. The prediction relies on the historical pattern of price cycles following supply cuts. Current prices are still far from the $500K milestone, making this a long shot rather than a guarantee.

[...]

Version: v1.1.14 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf | llama.cpp b9592 (sm_121) | RAM: 80475M free / 124546M | GPU: NVIDIA GB10

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Adam Back should be careful not to end up like John McAfee who predicted the same price at the cost of his masculinity, and of course we all know how that ended. In any case, let him avoid holidays in Spain because they really like to catch and extradite US citizens (of course if they survive prison).



Hopefully the people who did not get it the first time will reread my last post after having read yours. 😁

I think most people who read WO understand that AB is getting desperate since the media exposed his shady dealings, and when you publish this kind of speculation you usually get positive points from the larger part of the so-called "crypto community" who are looking for a boost or rather encouragement to hold out until another bull run.

To me, that price does not seem at all realistic in that time period and is just one in a series of those that will prove to be meaningless in the future. Remember Tim Draper who became famous with his speculation in 2014? That other speculation is no longer something anyone mentions because it wasn't even close to coming true, and it was only 1/4 of the price of those speculating about a million.
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