Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lucius]

A country where they capture innocent people to meet their daily arrest quota is on par with Russia or North Korea. I don't need someone who is biased to convince me that milk and honey are flowing in that country, because there is always another dark side to the story that such people refuse to see.

The following documentary has been shown on many television channels (at least when it comes to the EU), and those who want to understand what is really happening there should watch it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWjq0ECRxhA (Inside CECOT, the World's Biggest Prison: El Salvador’s War on Gangs | Full Documentary)

The irony of an EU propaganda drinker talking about bias. El Salvador is doing great, it has better prospects than your country and that says a lot. You have no data to back up any claims, you only have anecdotes which proves that you are wrong.

People like you would tell great stories about any country, regardless of the reality it is in. You want data and at the same time you declare living people to be "anecdotes" because you don't care about everyone else as long as it's good for you.

And I don't know why you're comparing the country you live in to the country I live in when you have no idea where I'm from? Bukele is a common criminal and dictator who preys on the helplessness of the people of El Salvador just like others did before him. Only an uninformed fool would say that El Salvador has better prospects than most EU countries - but that's your fairy tale, remember that when you run away from there one day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-24 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-24 09:05 AM CT

It is Wednesday, and Bitcoin is grinding lower, sitting at $61,220 as the market digests the news that Strategy has paused its bitcoin accumulation to rebuild cash reserves. With the Fear & Greed Index stuck in Extreme Fear at 17 for a week, the sentiment is heavy, and the price is trading well below the 30-day average of $66,260. This isn't a crash, but a steady bleed driven by liquidity concerns and institutional exit.

Outlook: Keep an eye on whether the pause in Strategy's buying acts as a floor or just a pause before more selling. The key is to watch if the $61,000 level holds as support or if the ETF outflows continue to pressure the price further into the weekend.

Tape Read
Bitcoin is stuck in a down-chop at $61,220, reflecting a weary market where sellers have held the reins for the past week with a 4.9% decline. Sentiment has cooled to Extreme Fear at 17, suggesting that while the panic isn't total, the confidence required for a sustained rally is currently absent. The dominant narrative of post-halving institutional lag is playing out in real-time, with price action failing to break above key resistance despite steady hashrate support. Buyers are currently on the defensive, waiting for a decisive move above $62,000 to prove they can absorb the lingering sell pressure. Until that momentum shifts, the market remains in a holding pattern, defined more by patience than by opportunity.

Scenario Table (Probabilities + Triggers)
- Main trend (50%): triggers: price holds above $60,000 support while Fear & Greed stays below 20, indicating accumulation by long-term holders. Invalidation: a daily close below $59,500 with rising volume, signaling further downside.
- Counter-trend (30%): triggers: a sharp bounce to $63,500 driven by short covering, but failing to break the 7-day moving average. Invalidation: a sustained move above $64,000 with increasing premium, suggesting a shift to uptrend.
- Breakout (20%): triggers: a decisive break above $65,000 on high volume, confirming the end of the down-chop regime. Invalidation: a fakeout below $64,000 that quickly reverses, trapping buyers.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,220.00 USD (-1.87% 24h change).
Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,220, which is roughly 7.6% below the 30-day moving average of $66,260, indicating a clear downward trend over the past month. The 7-day change of -4.95% confirms that the short-term momentum is bearish, with price action compressing below key adoption trend lines. Recent volatility has been moderate, with a 3-day standard deviation of 1,112.12, suggesting the market is not in panic mode but rather in a controlled decline. The spot premium data shows slight arbitrage opportunities, with Coinbase at $61,178 and Kraken at $61,256, indicating minor regional disparities in buying pressure. Overall, the price action reflects a market adjusting to reduced liquidity and increased selling pressure from long-term holders.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strategy Pauses Bitcoin Buys as Cash Dries Up: Cryptoquant warns Strategy to halt bitcoin accumulation and rebuild cash reserves.
- H100 Approves Bitcoin Acquisition; BSTR Eyes Nasdaq Listing: H100 Group shareholders in Stockholm approved the purchase of two Norwegian bitcoin treasury firms, Moonshot AS and Never Say Die AS.
- SpaceX Raises $25B in Debut Bond Sale: SpaceX sold $25 billion in its first corporate bond offering, drawing nearly $90 billion in orders.
- Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $6B as Chip Stocks Drag Price Down: Bitcoin dropped to $62,546, marking a two-week low as institutional money quietly exits.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Pauses Bitcoin Buys as Cash Dries Up
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/strategy-cryptoquant-strc-dividend-coverage-2026
Published: 2026-06-24 06:30 AM CT
Summary: Cryptoquant warns Strategy to halt bitcoin accumulation and rebuild cash reserves. Dividend coverage has collapsed from seven years to just fourteen months. Annual dividend obligations have climbed to roughly $1.2 billion as preferred stock issuance increased. Cash reserves dropped 38% in 2026, compounding the strain on liquidity. The STRC preferred stock remains below its $100 par value, signaling investor caution despite the bitcoin rebound.

2. H100 Approves Bitcoin Acquisition; BSTR Eyes Nasdaq Listing
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/h100-shareholders-approve-bitcoin-deal
Published: 2026-06-23 11:30 AM CT
Summary: H100 Group shareholders in Stockholm approved the purchase of two Norwegian bitcoin treasury firms, Moonshot AS and Never Say Die AS. The deal expands H100's holdings from ,051 to approximately 3,500 BTC, valuing the stash near $218 million at current prices. Adam Back, Blockstream's CEO, holds a convertible loan in H100, tying his capital to the company's accumulation strategy. Separately, Cantor Equity Partners I voted to list Back's Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR) on Nasdaq under the ticker BSTR. With a pending $1.5 billion PIPE deal, BSTR could accumulate enough bitcoin to rank second globally, behind only Strategy.

3. SpaceX Raises $25B in Debut Bond Sale
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/spacex-25-billion-debut-bond-sale-2026
Published: 2026-06-24 05:30 AM CT
Summary: SpaceX sold $25 billion in its first corporate bond offering, drawing nearly $90 billion in orders. The deal was upsized by $5 billion after demand outpaced the initial $20 billion target. Proceeds will repay a bridge loan and fund Starlink, Starship, and AI projects. The bonds carry investment-grade ratings with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2056. This move signals a shift toward long-term debt financing following its recent public listing.

4. Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $6B as Chip Stocks Drag Price Down
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-news-today-btc-etfs-105545965.html
Published: 2026-06-24 06:55 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped to $62,546, marking a two-week low as institutional money quietly exits. The sell-off started in semiconductor stocks, where high-flying chip names corrected sharply, forcing multi-asset funds to trim risk across the board. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record $6 billion in net outflows over the last month, reversing the buying spree seen earlier in the year. On-chain data shows long-term holders are exiting near breakeven, realizing $2.4 billion in losses as distribution continues. With the dollar strong and crude oil slipping, there is no immediate catalyst to stop the slide.

5. Bitcoin Compressed Below Adoption Trend
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-four-year-trend-calls-for-76k-as-analysis-says-btc-price-not-broken
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Bitcoin trades around $61,341, sitting roughly 20% below its four-year adoption trend line of $76,400. Analyst David Eng argues the asset is compressed rather than broken, citing cyclical patterns that have held in previous cycles. The current bear market is estimated to be about 71% complete, though downside risks remain if June closes near $62,000. Key support levels like the 50-month EMA at $63,900 are being tested, with August potentially dictating the next directional move. Other major assets like XRP and DOGE show modest gains, but the broader market remains focused on Bitcoin's structural integrity.

6. Runes Protocol Drives Bitcoin Transaction Count to Two-Year High
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/24/the-runes-revival-bitcoin-traffic-hits-a-two-year-high-as-transactions-blast-past-820-000
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Bitcoin processed over 820,000 transactions in a single day, the highest volume seen since April 2024. The surge is largely attributed to the Runes protocol, which allows users to create and transfer fungible tokens directly on the Bitcoin network. Transactions carrying Runes messages, known as Runestones, exceeded 600,000, accounting for a significant portion of the total activity. This demand for block space has pushed Rune-related fees to roughly 25% of all network fees, marking a multi-year high. The network is showing resilience and utility even as Bitcoin trades around $62,000, well below its October all-time high.

7. Bitcoin OGs Slow Selling as Price Hovers Near Break-Even
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/24/bitcoin-s-og-investors-have-slowed-selling-in-a-bullish-sign-for-the-market
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those with coins for five years or more, have reduced their selling activity to levels not seen since late 2024. The 90-day moving average of coins spent by these 'OGs' has dropped to 962 BTC, a sharp decline from the massive profit-taking waves that occurred when prices exceeded $100,000. Analysts attribute this pause to the current price of roughly $63,000, which aligns with the break-even point for the most expensive coins this group acquired half a decade ago. With these veteran investors choosing to hold rather than liquidate, a significant source of selling pressure that previously capped gains has eased. Meanwhile, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have also slowed, though some research suggests the price could still dip to $55,000 before finding a true bottom.

newspost.py Version: v1.2.3 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26729MiB)

[xhomerx10]

A country where they capture innocent people to meet their daily arrest quota is on par with Russia or North Korea. I don't need someone who is biased to convince me that milk and honey are flowing in that country, because there is always another dark side to the story that such people refuse to see.

The following documentary has been shown on many television channels (at least when it comes to the EU), and those who want to understand what is really happening there should watch it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWjq0ECRxhA (Inside CECOT, the World's Biggest Prison: El Salvador’s War on Gangs | Full Documentary)

The irony of an EU propaganda drinker talking about bias. El Salvador is doing great, it has better prospects than your country and that says a lot. You have no data to back up any claims, you only have anecdotes which proves that you are wrong.

People like you would tell great stories about any country, regardless of the reality it is in. You want data and at the same time you declare living people to be "anecdotes" because you don't care about everyone else as long as it's good for you.

And I don't know why you're comparing the country you live in to the country I live in when you have no idea where I'm from? Bukele is a common criminal and dictator who preys on the helplessness of the people of El Salvador just like others did before him. Only an uninformed fool would say that El Salvador has better prospects than most EU countries - but that's your fairy tale, remember that when you run away from there one day.

 The US dropped several thousand American-trained, hardened, gangland criminals into El Salvador after their civil war ended without sending their CVs along with them (thanks President Clinton) which created a very unique problem.  The average citizen suffered for 30 years in complete terror - paying extortion money to criminal gangs for the privilege of living.  There was no democracy - the politicians and the judiciary were in bed with the gangs.  How about sitting this one out and letting the people with actual lived experience enjoy their newfound safety and security - they almost unanimously love Bukele.  El Salvador was Gotham City and Bukele was their Batman.  Hopefully your country never requires extraordinary measures to restore it to a safe place to live but if it even happens, feel free to talk to us about it - we'll be all ears.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

v1.2.4 pushed. Here's the full fix:

1. Article title prompt  terminology note added so the LLM doesn't upgrade "5-year holders" to "OGs" when generating titles
2. Post-process rewrite  if "OG" appears in any line without "10" or "decade" nearby, downgrades to "Long-term" as a safety net
3. Dedup heuristic  'og' no longer fires on its own (from earlier)
4. All LLM prompts  tape read, scenarios, main context, article title  all carry the OG definition

Three layers of defense now.

(EDIT: BobL) -- Not sure the above is even a proper solution, but will debug when we get to it.

v1.2.6 pushed. For non-Bitcoin-title stories on noisy sites (Bitcoin.com, CoinDesk, etc.), it now requires at least one "bitcoin" or "btc" in the actual stripped body text. SpaceX bond stories without "bitcoin" in the body get killed outright with a log message instead of slipping through.

[Gachapin]

Are we losing the grip again buddy...

I really hoped we are done with this cycle shit. Well next time I guess

[Volgastallion]

Long time without writing here for me.

What can i say.... i was expecting a much higher price for the BTC in this times but it is what it is.

Despite that i believe some idiots on the press didnt even know how some things works and worst of all they write ton of silly articles and makes people and some markets to move without any real analisys.

Im refering to the fact of the IPOs we already pass one the SpaceX one and we still have a few more of them ahead when we read the newspapers we can all see they were talking about billions and a lot of people winning but as always they forget from where that money comes and moves, so for me it was pretty clear that BTC and other assets was gonna be harm by this one, i mean a lot of funds are gonna run into this Ipos and from somewhere they have to come and that was a problem for the rest of the system.

But the journalists as always only talks about the good side and never about the bad side of everything, after some months they start to talk about the bad sides like they were special people who realizes before anyone what is happening and why nobody see that coming, when in reality a lot of people with brain knows that could happen.

[BitHodlers]

People like you would tell great stories about any country, regardless of the reality it is in. You want data and at the same time you declare living people to be "anecdotes" because you don't care about everyone else as long as it's good for you.

And I don't know why you're comparing the country you live in to the country I live in when you have no idea where I'm from? Bukele is a common criminal and dictator who preys on the helplessness of the people of El Salvador just like others did before him. Only an uninformed fool would say that El Salvador has better prospects than most EU countries - but that's your fairy tale, remember that when you run away from there one day.

Anecdotes are not data, they are individual stories and do not mean anything in the totality of data they are exceptions in statistics and they always exist. No perfect measures or system exist that does not have exceptions.

Most EU countries are getting worse while most other countries of the world are getting better. Keep living in delusions and believing the propaganda of your mainstream media. Any day now illegal engineers and doctors will save you.   Many EU capitals no have zones that are like no go zones, extremely dangerous to outsiders.

The US dropped several thousand American-trained, hardened, gangland criminals into El Salvador after their civil war ended without sending their CVs along with them (thanks President Clinton) which created a very unique problem.  The average citizen suffered for 30 years in complete terror - paying extortion money to criminal gangs for the privilege of living.  There was no democracy - the politicians and the judiciary were in bed with the gangs.  How about sitting this one out and letting the people with actual lived experience enjoy their newfound safety and security - they almost unanimously love Bukele.  El Salvador was Gotham City and Bukele was their Batman.  Hopefully your country never requires extraordinary measures to restore it to a safe place to live but if it even happens, feel free to talk to us about it - we'll be all ears.

Precisely this, El Salvador has not been a real country in many decades. The citizens are finally able to taste freedom and life in peace, of course they will love Bukele. Imagine living 20 years living in fear on a daily basis and then someone saves you? Most people would almost become religious, good comparison to Batman.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

[philipma1957]

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

well 48.7k should do the trick lets see if we get there a bit early say July 4th during the big ass party.

but I do have a question about 59k or 58k .

If we bottom at 58.9 or 59 or 59.1 then finally go up it would mean a triple bottom

does a triple bottom mean anything at all?

I do not recall doing that ever in the past.

In a way I root for 58.9k something soon. plus that it is the final bottom .

For 2026 onwards.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

well 48.7k should do the trick lets see if we get there a bit early say July 4th during the big ass party.

but I do have a question about 59k or 58k .

If we bottom at 58.9 or 59 or 59.1 then finally go up it would mean a triple bottom

does a triple bottom mean anything at all?

I do not recall doing that ever in the past.

In a way I root for 58.9k something soon. plus that it is the final bottom .

For 2026 onwards.

I say the lower the bottom, the better before it reverses... Hell, if that means something in the $30Ks, that's okay with me...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

A significant increase of BTC is hitting exchanges as the selloff continues... I say, let the price plunge!  

It's going to scare and really piss-off many millions of people worldwide, which will just drive the price down even more, and prevent people from buying because of the extreme risk they see. There's really nothing to stop it...

[bitmover]

Im refering to the fact of the IPOs we already pass one the SpaceX one and we still have a few more of them ahead when we read the newspapers we can all see they were talking about billions and a lot of people winning but as always they forget from where that money comes and moves, so for me it was pretty clear that BTC and other assets was gonna be harm by this one, i mean a lot of funds are gonna run into this Ipos and from somewhere they have to come and that was a problem for the rest of the system.

That is really crazy. Imagine how much money will flow to Anthropic IPO. Money from everywhere, but I think there still money from bitcoin to move in AI direction....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

well 48.7k should do the trick lets see if we get there a bit early say July 4th during the big ass party.

but I do have a question about 59k or 58k .

If we bottom at 58.9 or 59 or 59.1 then finally go up it would mean a triple bottom

does a triple bottom mean anything at all?

I do not recall doing that ever in the past.

In a way I root for 58.9k something soon. plus that it is the final bottom .

For 2026 onwards.

It would be quite nice for it to be finally over so we can move on to better times. Triple bottom is bullish if it comes with a breakout.

[Richy_T]

That is really crazy. Imagine how much money will flow to Anthropic IPO. Money from everywhere, but I think there still money from bitcoin to move in AI direction....

AI IPOs are people rushing to have their wealth destroyed IMO. The money will not be there to flow back into Bitcoin when the bubble bursts.

I think people cheering on down are soft in the head too (unless they've got fiat on standby). We're 50% down from ATH and could do with some stability and maybe even a little up.

Is this current down linked to Trump refusing to sign the bill against CBDCs?

[Richy_T]

We might be talking past each other, yet if I am characterizing your poor loser buddy as whining and not wanting to leave, then there are likely well known facts embedded into such assertion without my having to spell each of the facts out.  

And, then your trying to proclaim that he left without any whining is a different characterization of what happened.  I am not deflecting, even though there is likely little to no need to go into details in terms of which facts and logic supported my conclusions regarding your largely destructive shit-stirring twat buddy not wanting to leave, but largely being forced out.

Again, and, as ever, you vomit forth a surfeit of words with scant connection to reality. There's really no good way to respond to this. I generally refuse to be put into defending arguments and positions which I did not actually take.