Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

remember in early ~1980s films about hackers and computers. like they would type "hack firewall" and it would lol. with appropriate "beep boop" noises. hahaha ... and i would laugh in DOS or bash cli

"OVERIDE ALL SECURITY" has been seared into my brain ever since Superman III was released into theaters.



Extra tricky as that's a misspelling of 'override'.

That's how you spell it in Fortran.

[cAPSLOCK]

My Android technical analysis, launcher widget, has painted an inverse square root chart pattern.

This implies an immediate square of the price.

This means approx $3,600,000,000 any day now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-24 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-24 09:06 PM CT

It is Wednesday, and Bitcoin is grinding lower, slipping below the $60,000 mark to roughly $59,566 as the Fear & Greed index sits at 12 in Extreme Fear for the seventh consecutive day. The market is digesting a sharp reversal driven by hawkish Federal Reserve signals and persistent spot ETF outflows, with BlackRock leading the exit. Price is currently trading well below the 30-day moving average of $65,718, confirming that the recent momentum has shifted decisively bearish.

Outlook: Keep a close watch on the $60,000 psychological support level; if it breaks, the next major demand zone sits between $60,500 and $61,500 where $530 million in buy bids are clustered. On the upside, liquidity targets rest near $63,500 and $64,000, but any bounce will need to overcome the weight of recent institutional selling. The key variable remains whether the US dollar's 13-month high continues to suppress non-yielding assets or if easing inflation fears allow capital to rotate back.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,862.00 (-3.21%).

Institutional capital is currently sitting on its hands, creating a vacuum where price action drifts lower on low conviction. The Extreme Fear reading of 12 suggests the market is digesting the post-halving supply shock without the usual retail FOMO to catch the dip. While the premium data indicates some underlying strength, the 19.8% monthly decline shows that short-term holders are still exiting positions. Control rests with sellers who are testing support levels, but the lack of a panic dump implies this is a slow bleed rather than a crash. A flip to bullish control requires a sustained hold above current lows and a return of volume, signaling that institutions are ready to absorb the available supply.

SCENARIOS
- Consolidation (45%): triggers: price holds $58k-$62k range with declining volume. Invalidation: break below $55k with increasing volume.
- Slow Grind Higher (30%): triggers: premium expansion continues while spot price stabilizes, signaling accumulation. Invalidation: premium collapses to zero while price drops.
- Extended Weakness (25%): triggers: Fear & Greed stays below 20 for another week, pushing price toward $52k. Invalidation: rapid reversal back above $65k on high volume.


KEY MARKET MOVERS

Fed Policy Shift: Two rate hikes are now forecasted for 2026 instead of cuts, shifting investor focus back to fixed-income and tech sectors.
Strategy Dividend Strain: Michael Saylor's firm faces a $1.2 billion annual dividend bill with shrinking cash reserves, forcing a choice between selling Bitcoin or diluting stock.
ETF Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six straight weeks of outflows totaling about $6 billion, signaling sustained institutional exit.
Dollar Strength: The US dollar hit a 13-month high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, which fell below $4,000.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Drops Below $60K Amid ETF Outflows and Fed Signals
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-collapses-to-59000
Published: 2026-06-24 01:37 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to roughly $59,566, erasing months of gains in days. The drop came from a mix of ETF outflows, hawkish Federal Reserve signals, and geopolitical inflation fears. BlackRock led the exits with $182 million in outflows, though some corporate buyers like Strategy are still accumulating. Standard Chartered sees this as a potential cycle bottom, targeting $100,000 by year-end. Half the supply is now underwater, a historical sign of a floor rather than a deeper collapse.

2. Bitcoin Price Crashes Toward $61,000 as Bloodbath Engulfs Crypto Stocks
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-slides-toward-61000
Published: 2026-06-24 09:09 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has dropped to roughly $61,200, shedding more than half its value since hitting a peak in October 2025. The decline is driven by a shift in Federal Reserve expectations, with two rate hikes now forecasted for 2026 instead of cuts. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen six straight weeks of outflows, totaling about $6 billion, signaling that institutional buyers are exiting. Corporate holders like Strategy and Strive are feeling the pressure, with Strategy selling its first Bitcoin since 2022 to cover dividend obligations. Competition from AI infrastructure spending is also siphoning speculative capital away from crypto assets.

3. Bitcoin Dips to $59K Amid Dollar Strength and ETF Outflows
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-nearly-loses-59k-as-dxy-surges-are-traders-bracing-for-more-pain
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Bitcoin slipped toward $59,060 as the US dollar hit a 13-month high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a slowdown in Strategy's buying pace added pressure, with Michael Saylor's firm adding only 520 BTC in the latest week. Cooling oil prices and easing inflation fears have shifted investor focus back to fixed-income and tech sectors, weakening the traditional inflation-hedge narrative for crypto. Gold fell below $4,000 while Micron's earnings surge highlights capital flowing into AI infrastructure rather than scarce assets. The market faces near-term downside risks, though a bounce to $60,000 remains possible if dollar strength wanes.

4. Bitcoin Tests 60K Support as $530M Buy Wall Holds
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-daily-close-points-to-the-next-demand-zone-as-530m-in-buy-bids-emerge
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Bitcoin slipped below $61,000, closing at $62,700 on Tuesday with a bearish engulfing candle. A dense cluster of $530 million in buy bids sits between $60,500 and $61,500, acting as the next major demand zone. Over $270 million of these bids have already been triggered as price dipped, while $125 million in long positions were liquidated in the last hour. Traders are watching $60,500 for stabilization before considering new longs, with upside liquidity targets at $63,500 and $64,000. The liquidation map shows a growing imbalance toward short positions above spot price, with $1.2 billion at risk near $63,500 and $2.4 billion near $65,000.

5. Strategy's Bitcoin Machine: Dividend Strain and the Selling Dilemma
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/strategys-bitcoin-machine-breaking-down-190700482.html
Published: 2026-06-24 03:07 PM CT
Summary: Strategy's STRC preferred stock has dropped to roughly $80, signaling a loss of confidence in its ability to pay the 11.5% cash dividend. The annual dividend bill has surged from $300 million to $1.2 billion, while cash reserves have shrunk, leaving a runway of only about 14 months. To cover this gap, the company faces a difficult choice: sell Bitcoin, dilute common stock, or raise more preferred equity. Selling Bitcoin undermines the core thesis of permanent accumulation, turning paper losses into real ones and eroding the 'untouchable' reserve narrative. While the structure hasn't broken yet, the pressure is mounting as each solution to one problem worsens another.

6. IBIT vs MSTR: The Cost of Convenience
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/stop-paying-10-premium-bitcoin-160907917.html
Published: 2026-06-24 12:09 PM CT
Summary: MicroStrategy shares trade at a 10% premium to the Bitcoin they actually hold, a cost that has compressed from earlier highs. While IBIT tracks the spot price with a transparent 0.25% fee, MSTR carries hidden leverage and debt obligations that amplify losses. Over the past year, MSTR dropped 70% compared to Bitcoin's 39% decline, showing how premium compression and debt drag weigh on the stock. Share count nearly doubled, diluting ownership unless the company issues shares at a high enough premium. For pure Bitcoin exposure, IBIT offers a cleaner, cheaper path without the corporate overhead.

7. Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin Tumble as Debasement Trade Unwinds
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/24/gold-silver-and-bitcoin-tumble-as-debasement-trade-unwinds
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Gold has dropped 28% from its January 2025 peak of $5,600, now trading below $4,000. Silver fell more than 50% from its record high near $120, slipping under $59. Bitcoin sits below $62,000, a 50% correction from its October all-time high, lagging U.S. Markets are pricing in two 25 basis point rate hikes by March 2027 due to renewed inflation fears. The dominant 'debasement trade' narrative is reversing as investors shift toward semiconductor and memory-related stocks.

8. Strategy Stock Drops Below $100 as Bitcoin Slides
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strategy-mstr-stock-falls-below-100
Published: 2026-06-24 09:14 AM CT
Summary: Strategy (MSTR) shares fell below $100 for the first time since March 2024, marking an 80% drop from their November 2024 peak. Bitcoin's price near $61,000 sits well below the company's average acquisition cost of roughly $75,656 per coin. This gap has left the company with over $11 billion in unrealized losses on its 762,099 BTC holdings. Recent moves include selling 32 BTC to prove dividend coverage and issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, which cut their cash buffer from 24 months to about six. Despite continuing to buy Bitcoin, the stock remains under pressure as investors weigh the leveraged thesis against current market reality.

9. Strategy Shares Dip Below $100 as Bitcoin Slides to $60K
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/strategy-shares-crash-below-100-143129093.html
Published: 2026-06-24 10:31 AM CT
Summary: Strategy (MSTR) common stock fell to $97.30, marking its lowest level since March 2024. Bitcoin dropped to a two-week low near $60,935, down more than 50% from its October peak above $126,000. The company sold some Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, breaking its long-held 'buy and never sell' rule. STRC preferred shares, used to fund Bitcoin purchases, also fell to $84.35 amid fears of dividend obligations. Investors are shifting capital from Bitcoin ETFs to AI stocks as the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.

newspost.py Version: v1.2.6 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26729MiB)

[philipma1957]

My Android technical analysis, launcher widget, has painted an inverse square root chart pattern.

This implies an immediate square of the price.

This means approx $3,600,000,000 any day now.

wow fuck millionaire I will be a billionaire.

nice.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

KEY MARKET MOVERS
OG Holder Consolidation: Long-term Bitcoin holders have cut spending to a 19-month low, suggesting early adopters are holding steady near cost basis while newer investors face unrealized losses.

OG "early adopters" cost basis is waaaaaaaay lower than current price, OGs could sell down to less than a kilobuck and profit.  

so i disagree

hahahahaha

That is not even a joke... some of the dumbass articles labelling "OG bitcoin holders" as someone who has been through a whole cylce or some other dumb shit like that.

Of course, there are degrees of OG bitcoin holders, and most likely the OG bitcoin holders would have cost bases of around $1k or quite a lot less... yet I would even consider guys who might have had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 as a variation of OG bitcoin holders (since if they had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulation prior to 2021, then they likely have a cost basis that is at or below $10k, yet there are surely guys who have been still accumulating bitcoin after 2021 and might have varying levels of cost basis, and may well have cost bases above $10k.. so it might be difficult to categorize guys who have cost bases higher than $10k as OG bitcoin HODLers, even though the lower the cost basis the better, and guys who have between $10k and $30k cost bases, might feel pretty decent about the status of their bitcoin holdings, even though it is difficult to argue that they would be bringing in the "BIG bucks" if they are merely getting 3x to 6x price appreciation out of their coins at current price levels - and they likely might well be hesitating in selling any coins at these levels unless they absolutely must... ..

So yeah, even though guys with cost bases between $10k and $30k are not necessarily OG bitcoin HODLers, they still are likely in a reasonably good place, especially if they might be holding 18.4-ish bitcoin or more... (why do I say 18.4-ish bitcoin or more?  because that is what I currently consider to be a minimum amount for guys to be able to sustainably withdraw $80k per year with 7% increases in the dollar amount each year, and surely right now our prices are bouncing slightly below the 200-WMA, so from my perspective, that reduces that sustainable dollar rate that can be withdrawn.

A country where they capture innocent people to meet their daily arrest quota is on par with Russia or North Korea. I don't need someone who is biased to convince me that milk and honey are flowing in that country, because there is always another dark side to the story that such people refuse to see.

The following documentary has been shown on many television channels (at least when it comes to the EU), and those who want to understand what is really happening there should watch it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWjq0ECRxhA (Inside CECOT, the World's Biggest Prison: El Salvador’s War on Gangs | Full Documentary)

The irony of an EU propaganda drinker talking about bias. El Salvador is doing great, it has better prospects than your country and that says a lot. You have no data to back up any claims, you only have anecdotes which proves that you are wrong.

People like you would tell great stories about any country, regardless of the reality it is in. You want data and at the same time you declare living people to be "anecdotes" because you don't care about everyone else as long as it's good for you.

And I don't know why you're comparing the country you live in to the country I live in when you have no idea where I'm from? Bukele is a common criminal and dictator who preys on the helplessness of the people of El Salvador just like others did before him. Only an uninformed fool would say that El Salvador has better prospects than most EU countries - but that's your fairy tale, remember that when you run away from there one day.

I appreciate your skepticism Lucius, and I don't completely agree with you about Bukele, even though for sure, each of us should strive to be skeptical about any politicians, institutions and/or status quo rich folks who are in positions of incredible power and they are engaging in acts (or the authorization of acts) that cannot be characterized in regards to not having trade-offs.  For sure there are situations in which normies are not able to speak out against leaders in their countries, and both the extent of the allowance of the removal of privacy, other civil/constitutional rights, and the abilities to lock up anyone without much if any due process should be raising red flags for anyone who attempts to follow any aspect of the situation in El Salvador, including if anyone had been made aware of the State of Exception that has been continuously in place and monthly extended since March of 2022.. which is surely a long ass time for such great power of El Salvador's government and such great sacrifice of citizens.

For sure, what Homer seems to be arguing about the needs of citizens to have some input into these kinds of decisions remains important, yet I surely consider it problematic to presume that El Salvadorian citizens are sufficiently informed, yet at the same time, I don't really have evidence regarding the informed state of various El Salvadorian citizens, even though Homer seems to presume that the outcome of the presidential vote is enough to presume that the El Salvadoreans are sufficiently informed... which also seems to be a problematic presumption.

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

You must be new here.

It is not that easy.

If such a drop happens, it does not resolve all matters (including settling that "the bottom is in"), as you seem to be presuming.

Many are expecting BTC to drop to $55,000, maybe $50,000 or even lower.

If that is going to happen, I say let it happen soon and let's get it over with and behind us.  

well 48.7k should do the trick lets see if we get there a bit early say July 4th during the big ass party.
but I do have a question about 59k or 58k .
If we bottom at 58.9 or 59 or 59.1 then finally go up it would mean a triple bottom
does a triple bottom mean anything at all?

I do not recall doing that ever in the past.
In a way I root for 58.9k something soon. plus that it is the final bottom .
For 2026 onwards.

In 2018, there were about 6 tests of $6k before it finally broke below and down to right around $3,124 in November 2018.  There have been some other examples of multiple tests of a local bottom prior to breaking further down, yet I don't recall any as striking as the 6-ish tests of $6k in 2018 prior to the further breakdown in late 2018.. and whether or not that final break down was attributed to the BSV forkening off of Bcash situation, the final break down coincided with the BSV forkening.

We might be talking past each other, yet if I am characterizing your poor loser buddy as whining and not wanting to leave, then there are likely well known facts embedded into such assertion without my having to spell each of the facts out.  

And, then your trying to proclaim that he left without any whining is a different characterization of what happened.  I am not deflecting, even though there is likely little to no need to go into details in terms of which facts and logic supported my conclusions regarding your largely destructive shit-stirring twat buddy not wanting to leave, but largely being forced out.

Again, and, as ever, you vomit forth a surfeit of words with scant connection to reality. There's really no good way to respond to this. I generally refuse to be put into defending arguments and positions which I did not actually take.

Well, then it seems that we must just let our prior posts stand for themselves, and I think that whatever characterization that I made about your little red-headed buddy are sufficiently correct, even if you want to proclaim that I am not sufficiently tying my characterizations to "facts."

Im refering to the fact of the IPOs we already pass one the SpaceX one and we still have a few more of them ahead when we read the newspapers we can all see they were talking about billions and a lot of people winning but as always they forget from where that money comes and moves, so for me it was pretty clear that BTC and other assets was gonna be harm by this one, i mean a lot of funds are gonna run into this Ipos and from somewhere they have to come and that was a problem for the rest of the system.

That is really crazy. Imagine how much money will flow to Anthropic IPO. Money from everywhere, but I think there still money from bitcoin to move in AI direction....

Not if their models would be continually shut down.
In fact, I think that it is potentially uninvestable.
Who could commit to a particular model only to have it rug-pulled at random?

Additionally, at least in biology, they have multiple cockamamie notions of what we (people) should be or not be allowed to do.
Open source might be the only option going forward.

Open source may be "just" and "fair,"  yet since when has the world been just and fair?

Well...they played retail in bitcoin and MU, specifically, like a fiddle.

MU: down 20%, up 20%-someone has got extra 40% and someone a few extra grey hairs (not me, though, as I don't have MU).

What is MU?  I would like to know if I got it or not?

[Biodom]

Well...they played retail in bitcoin and MU, specifically, like a fiddle.

MU: down 20%, up 20%-someone has got extra 40% and someone a few extra grey hairs (not me, though, as I don't have MU).

What is MU?  I would like to know if I got it or not?

I realize that your post is tongue-in-cheek...but for someone unfamilliar...Micron...the latest WS plaything.

I have a hypothetical scenario for a bitcoin bottom:

Gov revalues gold, gets a loan from treasury based on a part of the new value.
Gov asks MSaylor nicely to part with some (maybe 50-100K, for example) of his btc at $60k (to continue or re-invigorate  BSR)
Saylor books $3bil, gets rid of ALL converts, which makes MSTR virtually unsinkable.
Bitcoin proceeds to 90K instantly, so MSaylor " makes" 30KX800k (remaining)=$24 bil (minus booking of a $1.5 loss in Treasury tx) in "profit".
Everybody is happy.

EDIT: for sceptics, gov got a 10% stake in INTC at around $20-25/share. A similar tx in MSTR is not completely impossible, albeit in this case, why take equity when you may tx in a "real" thing?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-24 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-24 09:06 PM CT

[...]

MARKET ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,862.00 (-3.21%).

Institutional capital is currently sitting on its hands, creating a vacuum where price action drifts lower on low conviction. The Extreme Fear reading of 12 suggests the market is digesting the post-halving supply shock without the usual retail FOMO to catch the dip. While the premium data indicates some underlying strength, the 19.8% monthly decline shows that short-term holders are still exiting positions. Control rests with sellers who are testing support levels, but the lack of a panic dump implies this is a slow bleed rather than a crash. A flip to bullish control requires a sustained hold above current lows and a return of volume, signaling that institutions are ready to absorb the available supply.

SCENARIOS
- Consolidation (45%): triggers: price holds $58k-$62k range with declining volume. Invalidation: break below $55k with increasing volume.
- Slow Grind Higher (30%): triggers: premium expansion continues while spot price stabilizes, signaling accumulation. Invalidation: premium collapses to zero while price drops.
- Extended Weakness (25%): triggers: Fear & Greed stays below 20 for another week, pushing price toward $52k. Invalidation: rapid reversal back above $65k on high volume.

<---
KEY MARKET MOVERS

Fed Policy Shift: Two rate hikes are now forecasted for 2026 instead of cuts, shifting investor focus back to fixed-income and tech sectors.
Strategy Dividend Strain: Michael Saylor's firm faces a $1.2 billion annual dividend bill with shrinking cash reserves, forcing a choice between selling Bitcoin or diluting stock.
ETF Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded six straight weeks of outflows totaling about $6 billion, signaling sustained institutional exit.
Dollar Strength: The US dollar hit a 13-month high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, which fell below $4,000.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Drops Below $60K Amid ETF Outflows and Fed Signals
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-collapses-to-59000
Published: 2026-06-24 01:37 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to roughly $59,566, erasing months of gains in days. The drop came from a mix of ETF outflows, hawkish Federal Reserve signals, and geopolitical inflation fears. BlackRock led the exits with $182 million in outflows, though some corporate buyers like Strategy are still accumulating. Standard Chartered sees this as a potential cycle bottom, targeting $100,000 by year-end. Half the supply is now underwater, a historical sign of a floor rather than a deeper collapse.

[...]

newspost.py Version: v1.2.6 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26729MiB)

Nitpicking...

- The first highlighted header ("MARKET ANALYSIS") has a large (the largest) header font size, suggesting a 1st-level header. Thus, a blank line should follow it, in order to be consistent with the remaining 1st-level headers throughout the digest.

- The second highlighted header ("SCENARIOS") has a smaller font size, suggesting a 2nd-level header, and it's the only 2nd-level header in the entire digest. I'm just noting this, in case it was not intended to be this way.

- The highlighted spurious blank line should be removed.

[NotATether]

Of course, there are degrees of OG bitcoin holders, and most likely the OG bitcoin holders would have cost bases of around $1k or quite a lot less... yet I would even consider guys who might have had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 as a variation of OG bitcoin holders (since if they had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulation prior to 2021, then they likely have a cost basis that is at or below $10k, yet there are surely guys who have been still accumulating bitcoin after 2021 and might have varying levels of cost basis, and may well have cost bases above $10k.. so it might be difficult to categorize guys who have cost bases higher than $10k as OG bitcoin HODLers, even though the lower the cost basis the better, and guys who have between $10k and $30k cost bases, might feel pretty decent about the status of their bitcoin holdings, even though it is difficult to argue that they would be bringing in the "BIG bucks" if they are merely getting 3x to 6x price appreciation out of their coins at current price levels - and they likely might well be hesitating in selling any coins at these levels unless they absolutely must... ..

No matter what happens, never let the bears ruin your fun.

Keep enjoying yourself with your BTC, even if the price dumps some more.

YOLO

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

What is MU?  I would like to know if I got it or not?

'MU' is Micron Technology, a $1.182T Market Cap American multinational semiconductor company, you thick, shitbag!  

JJG - Micron had 'phenomenal' Q3 earnings! But you wouldn't know because you have shit for brains.

Micron's stock soars after blowout earnings reset the AI memory trade

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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