Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitmover]

That is really crazy. Imagine how much money will flow to Anthropic IPO. Money from everywhere, but I think there still money from bitcoin to move in AI direction....

AI IPOs are people rushing to have their wealth destroyed IMO.

Depends on the IPO

I asked Chatgpt to tell me the earnings of people who joined Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla IPO and format the results in BBcode

Code:

Company                     IPO Year   IPO Market Cap   Return Since IPO   Employee Wealth Creation
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amazon                      1997       ~$438M           ~7,000x            One of the greatest ever
Alphabet (Google)           2004       ~$23B            ~40 to 60x         Huge
Tesla                       2010       ~$1.7B           ~250 to 350x       Exceptional
Meta Platforms (Facebook)   2012       ~$104B           ~15 to 20x         Excellent

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.

Remarkable improvement in the vision.

Lucky me.

It is funny about eyes. I have been nearsighted from 1966 at the age of 9.

But glasses did the trick for me.

Then bifocals in 2005 at 48 .

Then a cataract surgery in 2008 the right eye

and cataract surgery in 2010 the left eye.

When both eyes had the implants done I could see 20-12 and on a good day 20-10 I actually

think that the chart was the limit back in 2010 and that I may have been able to see 20-08 if

the chart went that low.

Over time I knew that the added lens would be okay but the eye tissue holding the implant lens could cloud under the lens.

So I first noticed issues last summer and found a doctor in Livingston NJ that did around 8000

laser operations for this issue.

We did the year 2008 implant on Tuesday.

Less than 10 minutes to do it. All under local anesthesia .

Within 10 minutes after the surgery I could tell the clarity was improved.

Now 43 hours later the eye seems to be as good as it was back in 2008.

What is the point of a long off topic post.

Without science I would have been legally blind in 2012 or so.

I never would have done a post here at all.

So I will likely do the better 2010 eye next month of maybe August.

I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

Back to BTC a triple low of 59k ish has happened.

So the question is  do we do it again today since we are at 59.2k does it count as a quadruple

low of 59k ish or do we crack it open to 58 and lower.



edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

[cAPSLOCK]

edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

Stahpit!

(But glad to hear about your eyes being better.)

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-25 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-25 09:36 AM CT

Thursday brings another round of liquidation pain as Bitcoin slides to its 2026 low of $59,018, triggering over $1 billion in leveraged positions to vanish in a single day. With the Fear & Greed index stuck at 12 for a week, the market is in extreme fear, grinding lower as spot ETF outflows continue to drain institutional support.

Outlook: Watch for a potential squeeze if prices stabilize above $59k, given the overcrowded derivatives market and the fact that shorts are currently winning but not unchallenged. The key is whether long-term holders maintain their record 14.8 million BTC supply or if the underwater pressure forces more selling.

MARKET ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,252.00 (-3.23%).

Institutional capital is currently sitting on its hands, creating a vacuum where price action drifts lower on low conviction. The Extreme Fear reading of 12 suggests the market is digesting the post-halving supply shock without the usual retail FOMO to catch the falling knife. While the premium data indicates some underlying strength in specific venues, the broader trend remains bearish with a 21% monthly decline. Control rests with sellers who are testing support levels, waiting for a catalyst to justify re-entry. A flip to bullish control requires a sustained hold above key psychological supports and a rise in the Fear & Greed index above 30.

SCENARIOS
- Consolidation (45%): triggers: price ranges between $55k and $62k with declining volume. Invalidation: a decisive weekly close below $52k or above $68k.
- Slow Grind Higher (30%): triggers: ETF inflows resume and Fear & Greed rises to 35-40. Invalidation: failure to break $65k resistance on high volume.
- Breakdown to Lows (25%): triggers: macro risk-off intensifies and BTC loses $55k support. Invalidation: rapid recovery back above $60k within 48 hours.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

ETF Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $182 million in outflows this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of redemptions as capital rotates into AI stocks.
Power Law Break: Bitcoin has broken its historical Power Law support band for the first time, signaling a potential structural shift in long-term valuation models.
Strategy Selling: MicroStrategy has resumed selling Bitcoin after a four-year holding period, adding to the supply pressure amid macro inflation fears.
Long-Term Holder Accumulation: Despite the price drop, long-term holders (2+ years) control a record 14.8 million BTC, though over one-third of their holdings are now underwater.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Drops to 2026 Low as $1B in Leverage Flushes Out
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-traders-lose-1b-in-24-hours-as-short-sellers-face-rising-pressure
Published: 2026-06-25 08:45 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin slid to $59,018, marking its lowest point of 2026, and triggered over $1 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Long positions took the brunt of the damage, with $781 million wiped out compared to $218 million in shorts. Ethereum also suffered, dropping below $1,560 and contributing $230 million in liquidations. The market sentiment is in extreme fear, with the index sitting at 12, reflecting heavy bearish pressure. Analysts warn that while shorts are currently winning, the derivatives market is overcrowded, leaving room for a potential squeeze if prices recover.

2. Bitcoin Drops to $59k as ETF Outflows Continue
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-hits-lowest-level-since-020936049.html
Published: 2026-06-24 10:09 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell to $59,023.98 on June 24, 2026, its lowest since October 2024. The price is down roughly 52% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Spot ETFs have seen $182 million in outflows this week, marking a seventh consecutive week of redemptions. Total ETF assets have shrunk from $113 billion at the end of 2025 to $77.5 billion. Institutional investors are rotating capital into AI stocks and IPOs, while regulatory clarity remains stalled.

3. Bitcoin Flash Crashes to $58K as Power Law Support Breaks
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-crashes-from-61000-to-58000
Published: 2026-06-25 09:27 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped from $61,000 to $58,000 in a sharp morning sell-off before recovering slightly to $59,315. The price is now roughly 53% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. A key long-term valuation model, the Power Law, broke its historical support band for the first time, signaling a potential structural shift. Macro pressures include billions in ETF outflows, Strategy selling Bitcoin after four years, and inflation fears from U.S.-Iran tensions. Capital is rotating out of crypto and into AI equities, leaving bears in control despite historical precedents for recovery.

4. Bitcoin vs. Gold: A 20-Year Prediction
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-bitcoin-worth-more-gold-095700852.html
Published: 2026-06-25 05:57 AM CT
Summary: Neil Patel argues Bitcoin will surpass gold's market cap within two decades, citing Bitcoin's digital nature and portability as key advantages. He notes gold's historical longevity but highlights Bitcoin's fixed supply cap versus gold's ongoing inflation. The article suggests autonomous agents in a digital economy will prefer Bitcoin's transparency and scarcity. However, it admits Bitcoin is currently trading 51% below its recent peak, making near-term optimism difficult. The piece concludes by pivoting to stock recommendations, noting Bitcoin itself wasn't included in their top 10 picks.

5. Bitcoin Supply in Loss Hits Record High as Long-Term Holders Remain Steady
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/25/bitcoin-supply-in-loss-reaches-record-high-10-83-million-btc
Published: 2026-06-25
Summary: Bitcoin dropped to roughly $59,100, pushing 10.83 million coins into a loss, a new all-time high. This figure exceeds previous bear-market peaks and aligns with levels seen near cycle lows in 2019, 2020, and 2022. Long-term holders, defined as those holding for at least 155 days, now control a record 14.8 million BTC. Despite this accumulation, over one-third of their holdings are currently underwater, with 5.58 million coins in loss. Historically, this cohort tends to hold through weakness and sell only during peak euphoria, suggesting current conviction remains high despite the price drop.

6. Bitcoin derivatives signal panic ahead of core PCE data
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/06/25/bitcoin-derivatives-signal-panic-a-weak-core-pce-reading-could-trigger-snapback
Published: 2026-06-25
Summary: Bitcoin derivatives show investors paying a heavy premium for downside protection, with put options trading at a near 25-point premium over calls. This fear mirrors early February, when similar positioning preceded a bottom near $60,000 that held for months. The market is watching Thursday's core PCE data, expected to show 3.4% year-over-year inflation, which could signal whether price pressures are peaking. A softer reading might ease Fed rate hike fears and trigger a quick rebound, though some economists argue the data may already be stale due to falling oil prices. Meanwhile, Strategy's stock (MSTR) has broken a key technical pattern, suggesting further weakness in the broader crypto-linked equities.

7. Strive CEO Matt Cole Buys Bitcoin Aggressively as Treasury Hits 19,864 BTC
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strive-asst-ceo-says-buying-bitcoin
Published: 2026-06-24
Summary: Strive Inc. CEO Matt Cole says the company is buying Bitcoin 'hand over fist' during the current market downturn. The firm recently acquired 759 BTC between June 15 and 21 at an average cost of $65,850 per coin. This purchase brings Strive's total treasury to 19,864 BTC, making it the seventh-largest corporate holder globally. The company built this position from zero in under a year, including a major acquisition of Semler Scientific in January 2026.

newspost.py Version: v1.2.6 | Model: Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Abliterated-Heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26729MiB)

[philipma1957]

edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

Stahpit!

(But glad to hear about your eyes being better.)

Yeah considering I would basically be seeing blurred cloudiness and would need audio or braille,

Having correction to 20-15 for distance and

Having correction for reading is amazing.

Truly grateful for science and my eyesight.

Oh added around 0.01 to the stack.

If these low numbers continue I will get 3 btc by the end of this year.

Below it looks like some very confident miners


Latest Block:   955348  (19 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.5917%  (1781 / 1670.86 expected, 110.14 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Current Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 133137459926362 and 133258010706081
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.5672% and +6.6637%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2026 at 8:12 PM  (-10.0914%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:25 PM  (in 1d 12h 44m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 11:42 PM  (in 1d 13h 1m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 13m 17s and 13d 3h 30m 14s

[Hueristic]

edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

Stahpit!

(But glad to hear about your eyes being better.)

Yeah considering I would basically be seeing blurred cloudiness and would need audio or braille,

Having correction to 20-15 for distance and

Having correction for reading is amazing.

Truly grateful for science and my eyesight.

Congrats, I never thought about how lucky I was having 20/10 my whole life until it went to 20/13 and I went to the doc and told him everything was getting blurry and he told me "don't come back until your arms are too short".

Turns out macular degeneration, glasses suck.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.

Remarkable improvement in the vision.

Lucky me.

It is funny about eyes. I have been nearsighted from 1966 at the age of 9.

But glasses did the trick for me.

Then bifocals in 2005 at 48 .

Then a cataract surgery in 2008 the right eye

and cataract surgery in 2010 the left eye.

When both eyes had the implants done I could see 20-12 and on a good day 20-10 I actually

think that the chart was the limit back in 2010 and that I may have been able to see 20-08 if

the chart went that low.

Over time I knew that the added lens would be okay but the eye hold the lens could cloud under

the lens.

So I first noticed issues last summer and found a doctor in Livingston NJ that did around 8000

laser operations for this issue.

We did the year 2008 implant on Tuesday.

Less than 10 minutes to do it. All under local anesthesia .

Within 10 minutes after the surgery I could tell the clarity was improved.

Now 43 hours later the eye seems to be as good as it was back in 2008.

What is the point of a long off topic post.

Without science I would have been legally blind in 2012 or so.

I never would have done a post here at all.

So I will likely do the better 2010 eye next month of maybe August.

I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

Back to BTC a triple low of 59k ish has happened.

So the question is  do we do it again today since we are at 59.2k does it count as a quadruple

low of 59k ish or do we crack it open to 58 and lower.



edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

I bought more (my way) at that bottom.

I keep three cash accounts loaded for immediate wire transfers to any of my three brokerage accounts whenever I want to buy...  

Yes, Laser technology for eye surgery is a remarkable thing that was not available back decades ago. 

[vapourminer]

edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

philbuddy at work

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

Depends on the IPO

Indeed it does. Hindsight is 20-20.

[shahzadafzal]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Time flies so fast… it looks like just yesterday Bitcoin was below $60k

[Lucius]

~snip~
4. Bitcoin vs. Gold: A 20-Year Prediction
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-bitcoin-worth-more-gold-095700852.html
Published: 2026-06-25 05:57 AM CT
Summary: Neil Patel argues Bitcoin will surpass gold's market cap within two decades, citing Bitcoin's digital nature and portability as key advantages. He notes gold's historical longevity but highlights Bitcoin's fixed supply cap versus gold's ongoing inflation. The article suggests autonomous agents in a digital economy will prefer Bitcoin's transparency and scarcity. However, it admits Bitcoin is currently trading 51% below its recent peak, making near-term optimism difficult. The piece concludes by pivoting to stock recommendations, noting Bitcoin itself wasn't included in their top 10 picks.

I don't know what to say about these long-term speculations, except that Neil Patel will obviously be blacklisted by some gold bugs like Peter Schiff. As for the possible outcome, the fact is that there will be more and more gold because its supply is almost unlimited, while Bitcoin with its 21 million max supply has exactly the opposite feature.

The only question is whether demand can be predicted over such a long period of time and what will happen to the world as it is today during that period. The accelerated development of artificial intelligence, which in the near future will be able to develop (repair and perfect) itself, in combination with political instabilities that are obviously only intensifying are leading us to a very slippery field.

[NotATether]

And, as it turns out, the price did dump lower. WTF 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.

Remarkable improvement in the vision.

Lucky me.

It is funny about eyes. I have been nearsighted from 1966 at the age of 9.

But glasses did the trick for me.

Then bifocals in 2005 at 48 .

Then a cataract surgery in 2008 the right eye

and cataract surgery in 2010 the left eye.

When both eyes had the implants done I could see 20-12 and on a good day 20-10 I actually

think that the chart was the limit back in 2010 and that I may have been able to see 20-08 if

the chart went that low.

Over time I knew that the added lens would be okay but the eye hold the lens could cloud under

the lens.

So I first noticed issues last summer and found a doctor in Livingston NJ that did around 8000

laser operations for this issue.

We did the year 2008 implant on Tuesday.

Less than 10 minutes to do it. All under local anesthesia .

Within 10 minutes after the surgery I could tell the clarity was improved.

Now 43 hours later the eye seems to be as good as it was back in 2008.

What is the point of a long off topic post.

Without science I would have been legally blind in 2012 or so.

I never would have done a post here at all.

So I will likely do the better 2010 eye next month of maybe August.

I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

Back to BTC a triple low of 59k ish has happened.

So the question is  do we do it again today since we are at 59.2k does it count as a quadruple

low of 59k ish or do we crack it open to 58 and lower.



edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

Congrats on the new eye. I hope the installation of the second one succeeds too.

Now, if only science could take care of us presbyopics too...

I've had the fortune of having perfect vision in my younger years. No nearsightedness at all. Never had to wear glasses. The problem is, those of us with perfect vision when young, will inevitably suffer severe presbyopia as we're getting older. That's because myopia and presbyopia cancel each other, so no myopia = more presbyopia (when it comes).

No laser or anything else can fix presbyopia -- at least not yet. You have to wear glasses forever, and progress from standard to bifocals/multifocals. I'm at the stage where I wear standard presbyopic glasses for close-up work (reading, working on the 'puter, etc.), but will need to switch to bifocals/multifocals very soon. For medium to far away objects, normal everyday life, driving a car, etc., no glasses are necessary (no myopia), which is the good part.

I wish there was a way to install completely new, fully functioning lenses into the eye sockets, or even install completely new eyes (!), but this is still out of the reach of science (or medical tech).

Did you know that the eye is actually part of the brain? So, the retina is like "exposed brain" that's photosensitive. This facilitates fast information transfer, much like a cache memory inside a processor -- no need for external wiring. This exactly matches the early experiments in imaging sensors, where a RAM memory chip was exposed (the chip package was removed) and each memory cell acted like a photosensitive pixel.

[Karl_3000]

I don't know what to say about these long-term speculations, except that Neil Patel will obviously be blacklisted by some gold bugs like Peter Schiff. As for the possible outcome, the fact is that there will be more and more gold because its supply is almost unlimited, while Bitcoin with its 21 million max supply has exactly the opposite feature.

Gold is unlimited but the ones that can be reached and mined by humans are limited even if the mining continues for centuries. But if comparing gold with bitcoin, gold will be considered more unlimited because there are new gold reserves that are detected but bitcoin remain 21 million bitcoin.

And, as it turns out, the price did dump lower. WTF 

An opportunity to buy more bitcoin to hodl.

Bitcoin has made it up to $60000 twice after today's fall, let us see if it will get back there again or $60000 will become the resistance.

[vapourminer]

[ B-B-B-B-B-B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

ummmmm bobc

please check math library on chartbuddy posts in a row logic

edit: clicked on quote and yikes.. codes, codes everywhere..  my eyes.. ok even without the codes my eyes...      HDR=OFF

speaking of eyes: phil glad that worked out. my eyes are sputtering out too. age. bleh.

[(BTC)]

~It's been a looong time since I did an avatar hat but I still have the template and the tools.  I'm a little rusty though,~

Not rusty at all - I absolutely love it. Thank you so much, man!