Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitmover]

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.
I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

I have high hopes for what AI can do.

AI may build a better AI, improve itself. Then, solve a lot of our problems which would take decades to be solved.

There is a good series of books I discovered recently, that Elon Musk recommended in a video (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OLJu77Bnf2I), about a future where AI/robots solved all our scarcity problems.

[BitHodlers]

There is a good series of books I discovered recently, that Elon Musk recommended in a video (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OLJu77Bnf2I), about a future where AI/robots solved all our scarcity problems.

Do you really believe that the rich who could share a lot right now but refuse to do it are going to suddenly start sharing in an AI/robots future? The more likely future is of a dystopian version where the wealth concentration is even higher with AI and robotics, and almost nobody has a job and is fully controlled by UBI and social credit score.  

[Biodom]

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.
I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

I have high hopes for what AI can do.

AI may build a better AI, improve itself. Then, solve a lot of our problems which would take decades to be solved.

There is a good series of books I discovered recently, that Elon Musk recommended in a video (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OLJu77Bnf2I), about a future where AI/robots solved all our scarcity problems.

I read "The player of games"-that one was pretty good (and is recommended as the first to read) and "Hydrogen Sonata"-OK, not great, but still quite readable.
All books are largely independent from each other, but there are common themes.

Of the older books, rarely mentioned, I would suggest the "Hyperion" among others-an interesting one.
No movies  or shows as it would be incredibly difficult to do it right. Quite gory, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

~It's been a looong time since I did an avatar hat but I still have the template and the tools.  I'm a little rusty though,~

Not rusty at all - I absolutely love it. Thank you so much, man!

sweeeeeeet

[BobLawblaw]

Sorry for misfire. Working on fixing some bugs with the dude. He should have fired overnight, but couldn’t log in to break the chain, and guess I broke something while working on a fix.

[ B-B-B-B-B-B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

ummmmm bobc
please check math library on chartbuddy posts in a row logic
edit: clicked on quote and yikes.. codes, codes everywhere..  my eyes.. ok even without the codes my eyes...      HDR=OFF
speaking of eyes: phil glad that worked out. my eyes are sputtering out too. age. bleh.

[bitmover]

I read "The player of games"-that one was pretty good (and is recommended as the first to read) and "Hydrogen Sonata"-OK, not great, but still quite readable.
All books are largely independent from each other, but there are common themes.

Of the older books, rarely mentioned, I would suggest the "Hyperion" among others-an interesting one.
No movies  or shows as it would be incredibly difficult to do it right. Quite gory, too.

I read just Consider Phlebas, the first one. It is a good one, but the universe he created is much more interesting than the story. I just bought Player of games and i will start soon.

Do you really believe that the rich who could share a lot right now but refuse to do it are going to suddenly start sharing in an AI/robots future? The more likely future is of a dystopian version where the wealth concentration is even higher with AI and robotics, and almost nobody has a job and is fully controlled by UBI and social credit score. 

For those who like science fiction, a book recommendation from a genius is worthwhile.

[xhomerx10]

Depends on the IPO

Indeed it does. Hindsight is 20-20.

 ...or 20-08 in Mr. philipma1957's case.

 Speaking of which, where can I get my eyes spit-polished and how much does it cost?  I was having trouble seeing the youngest at her grad ceremony today and was thinking I could use some new eyes.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, there are degrees of OG bitcoin holders, and most likely the OG bitcoin holders would have cost bases of around $1k or quite a lot less... yet I would even consider guys who might have had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 as a variation of OG bitcoin holders (since if they had accomplished most of their bitcoin accumulation prior to 2021, then they likely have a cost basis that is at or below $10k, yet there are surely guys who have been still accumulating bitcoin after 2021 and might have varying levels of cost basis, and may well have cost bases above $10k.. so it might be difficult to categorize guys who have cost bases higher than $10k as OG bitcoin HODLers, even though the lower the cost basis the better, and guys who have between $10k and $30k cost bases, might feel pretty decent about the status of their bitcoin holdings, even though it is difficult to argue that they would be bringing in the "BIG bucks" if they are merely getting 3x to 6x price appreciation out of their coins at current price levels - and they likely might well be hesitating in selling any coins at these levels unless they absolutely must... ..

No matter what happens, never let the bears ruin your fun.

Keep enjoying yourself with your BTC, even if the price dumps some more.
YOLO

Yeah, but amount of cash cushion matters.  These days, I am not too worried if I want to or need to shave off some BTC in order to take care of some extra expenses that are not feasible to take care of with various other funds, yet it still does not feel good to be selling any bitcoin when the spot price is below the 200-WMA.. and I also become more disinclined to spend bitcoin when the BTC price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA, as the various guidelines of my sustainable withdrawal tool (as designed by bitmover) attempt to point out those kinds of parameters of the BTC's price related to the 200-WMA for considerations.

Back in the day of 2018, 2019 and even into 2020, such as when my profits were ONLY in the ballpark of 5x (when BTC prices were at $5k and even bouncing less than that), I had more trepidations about making sure that I was not spending any bitcoin, even though I did end up getting forced into spending some bitcoin in those times based on some of my own cashflow management failures and maybe even my own presumptions that the BTC prices were not to likely to go below $6k...

So I would imagine that more recent entrants to bitcoin, especially guys who started a cycle or more later than my late 2013 starting, they may well be having similar trepidations as I was having in the sub $6k price territories... and of course, there are more things going on with bitcoin in recent times with both the entrance of BIGGER paper bitcoin players, and who the fuck knows with the various governmental tentacles that surely fuck around with our abilities to move around bitcoin without having to worry about the various ways that our transactions are being monitored for potential "gotcha" moments that might not even be based on accurate analysis of the block chain... for sure, bitcoin prices are affected by these various current bitcoin dynamics and not just by what supposedly Saylor/MSTR and/or BlackRock and the various other paper bitcoin pushers are doing in regards to the supposed bitcoin that they supposedly hold, if there is much if any way of verifying the extent to which their various coins are not rehypothicated magnitudes of times, if not 1,000s of times.

What is MU?  I would like to know if I got it or not?

'MU' is Micron Technology, a $1.182T Market Cap American multinational semiconductor company, you thick, shitbag!  

JJG - Micron had 'phenomenal' Q3 earnings! But you wouldn't know because you have shit for brains.
Micron's stock soars after blowout earnings reset the AI memory trade

Oh?  There are other ways to make money besides bitcoin? 

Of course, many of us who have been in bitcoin for many years (and we did not just get into paper bitcoin at the latest top), we consider bitcoin beyond only its NGU technologies - yet at the same time, the various aspects of the other BTC investment theses (outside of NGU) seem to be ongoingly attacked, and surely it seems that an ongoing attack of bitcoin in relation to its sound money aspects and its financial sovereignty aspects also ends up impacting bitcoin's NGU technology.  Who would-a thunk?

Have you, aka smarter than everyone else twat, ever thought about bitcoin beyond merely its NGU technology?  And, I would suspect your NGU thesis is not currently working out, yet you are not selling yet?  Why not?  There are "other opportunities" out there in the BIG world that you seem to (act like you) know everything about, no?

That is really crazy. Imagine how much money will flow to Anthropic IPO. Money from everywhere, but I think there still money from bitcoin to move in AI direction....

AI IPOs are people rushing to have their wealth destroyed IMO.

Depends on the IPO

I asked Chatgpt to tell me the earnings of people who joined Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla IPO and format the results in BBcode

Code:

Company                     IPO Year   IPO Market Cap   Return Since IPO   Employee Wealth Creation
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amazon                      1997       ~$438M           ~7,000x            One of the greatest ever
Alphabet (Google)           2004       ~$23B            ~40 to 60x         Huge
Tesla                       2010       ~$1.7B           ~250 to 350x       Exceptional
Meta Platforms (Facebook)   2012       ~$104B           ~15 to 20x         Excellent

Hahahaha.

That is fairly interesting information, yet personally, I would prefer to see that "Employee wealth creation" in terms of actual numbers (even they are approximate ranges of percentages or other ways of describing the "wealth creation.")  Of course, with staple industries, wealth creation happens on several levels besides the just employees, such as around infrastructure, shareholders and the various supporting industries that tend to be built around such large industries - and maybe adding up to several network effects that might be built around such large companies, and so long as the company itself has some strong foundations, then the network industries likely have strength that comes out of the strength of the underlying successfully large company.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Do you really believe that the rich who could share a lot right now but refuse to do it are going to suddenly start sharing in an AI/robots future? The more likely future is of a dystopian version where the wealth concentration is even higher with AI and robotics, and almost nobody has a job and is fully controlled by UBI and social credit score.  

For those who like science fiction, a book recommendation from a genius is worthwhile.

The books are probably going to good reads based from what I read about them since you posted it, user reviews are good on it. That does not answer my question though, such an optimistic future is more likely going to only stay science fiction..

Where we are right now as a society does not indicate at all that we have good prospects for going towards that future. I do not know why someone should expect that when nothing indicates this?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

~It's been a looong time since I did an avatar hat but I still have the template and the tools.  I'm a little rusty though,~

Not rusty at all - I absolutely love it. Thank you so much, man!

That has got to be your best work yet!

Welcome to the club, (BTC).

I did some laser work on one eye Tuesday.

Remarkable improvement in the vision.

Lucky me.

It is funny about eyes. I have been nearsighted from 1966 at the age of 9.

But glasses did the trick for me.

Then bifocals in 2005 at 48 .

Then a cataract surgery in 2008 the right eye

and cataract surgery in 2010 the left eye.

When both eyes had the implants done I could see 20-12 and on a good day 20-10 I actually

think that the chart was the limit back in 2010 and that I may have been able to see 20-08 if

the chart went that low.

Over time I knew that the added lens would be okay but the eye hold the lens could cloud under

the lens.

So I first noticed issues last summer and found a doctor in Livingston NJ that did around 8000

laser operations for this issue.

We did the year 2008 implant on Tuesday.

Less than 10 minutes to do it. All under local anesthesia .

Within 10 minutes after the surgery I could tell the clarity was improved.

Now 43 hours later the eye seems to be as good as it was back in 2008.

What is the point of a long off topic post.

Without science I would have been legally blind in 2012 or so.

I never would have done a post here at all.

So I will likely do the better 2010 eye next month of maybe August.

I will always be hopeful about what science can give us. As my eyesight has been  restored by

science.

Here is hoping that science advances some more to help people more.

Back to BTC a triple low of 59k ish has happened.

So the question is  do we do it again today since we are at 59.2k does it count as a quadruple

low of 59k ish or do we crack it open to 58 and lower.



edit as I typed we dropped to 58.1k

That makes you a braver man than me. But then again I am not going to risk it for my -1.5 and -1.75 diopter. The risk is very very low that something could go wrong but it still does not feel worth it... Yet.

[philipma1957]

Sorry for misfire. Working on fixing some bugs with the dude. He should have fired overnight, but couldn’t log in to break the chain, and guess I broke something while working on a fix.

[ B-B-B-B-B-B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

ummmmm bobc
please check math library on chartbuddy posts in a row logic
edit: clicked on quote and yikes.. codes, codes everywhere..  my eyes.. ok even without the codes my eyes...      HDR=OFF
speaking of eyes: phil glad that worked out. my eyes are sputtering out too. age. bleh.

yeah the 2008 cataract implant was good for 17 years the input is still good now the the soft tissue growing under implant is lasered.

Here is hoping it takes 17-18 years before more scar tissue grow back.

I would be 86-87 by then.
To be honest my eyes have had some type of of correction from 1966 to 2026.

I can't imagine how someone in say 1857 would have done with my eyes. Yeah glasses for a while and blindish at about 1907-1910

[vapourminer]

 Speaking of which, where can I get my eyes spit-polished and how much does it cost?  I was having trouble seeing the youngest at her grad ceremony today and was thinking I could use some new eyes.

you dig up a doctor, and you pay him 20 menthol kools to do a surgical shine job on your eyeballs

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Depends on the IPO

Indeed it does. Hindsight is 20-20.

 ...or 20-08 in Mr. philipma1957's case.

 Speaking of which, where can I get my eyes spit-polished and how much does it cost?  I was having trouble seeing the youngest at her grad ceremony today and was thinking I could use some new eyes.

[Biodom]

 Speaking of which, where can I get my eyes spit-polished and how much does it cost?  I was having trouble seeing the youngest at her grad ceremony today and was thinking I could use some new eyes.

you dig up a doctor, and you pay him 20 menthol kools to do a surgical shine job on your eyeballs

I liked the movie, but had to google the quote 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@adambliv
Bitcoin just printed 5% BELOW the 200 week moving average.

Historically, when BTC has traded this far below/near the 200 WMA, the median forward returns have been absurd:

3 months: +44%
6 months: +90%
9 months: +131%
12 months: +127%
18 months: +216%
24 months: +326%

That would imply Bitcoin going from ~$59k today to roughly:

3M: ~$85k
6M: ~$113k
9M: ~$137k
12M: ~$135k
18M: ~$188k
24M: ~$253k

The market is currently pricing Bitcoin like it wandered behind a Waffle House at 3:17 AM and lost a knife fight with a crackhead.

But the historical base rate here is very clear.

When Bitcoin gets dragged under the 200 WMA, the forward return profile stops looking like “risk” and starts looking like the market offering you a beach house because everyone else is busy vomiting into a helmet.

Volatility is the admission ticket.

The 200 WMA is where the tourists get cremated and the psychopaths start calculating retirement dates.

https://x.com/adambliv/status/2070160933092053268?s=46