Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lucius]

~
Some would say "business as usual", and that is literally so - hodlers will hold and buy more, and weak hands will sell (even at a loss) and whine about how Bitcoin is a scam.

Weak hands never learn anything. They are parasites to the bitcoin as technology but as assets, they are the golden goose where the real long term investors can keep making profits.

Bitcoin is too big to fail now, since the institutional investments have become a part. Will that make any difference in their holding strategy?

Too big? Compared to what? If we look at the market cap we see $1.2 trillion, but if we take into account that between 1-2 million coins were lost (although some claim that the number is at least twice as large), then in a world of various values, that is not such a large value. The estimated value of gold is over $28 trillion at this time just for comparison.

To be clear, it is practically impossible to destroy Bitcoin unless someone shuts down the internet, but it is far from impossible to seriously harm it considering that they just need to declare it illegal, ban CEXs and that bank clients are not allowed to make transactions related to cryptocurrencies.

This would only happen if Bitcoin becomes a serious threat to their financial system (which we are astronomically far from), and in my opinion the more likely option is that they will try to change it from within by controlling all the larger mining farms and of course influencing the Core developers. Black Rock has been buying shares in the largest BTC mining farms for years and they say that it is already the majority owner in many.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

Bitcoin is too big to fail

Saying too big to fail is like saying too fat to die. - Robin Williams

[philipma1957]

So, why do they refuse to allow Windows 11 to be installed on a PC fully capable of running Windows 11?

Speculation is that this will eventually allow them to lock things down so that any software purchased has to go through MS. People have been getting around the requirements and reporting that it runs just fine (as much as Windows can be described as running fine anyway) though it appears that Microsoft are increasingly making this hard to do. Some, me included, think that Microsoft's moves toward a walled garden are what has prompted Valve to push forward on making Steam run on Linux and putting so much effort into Proton.

If you really work at it you can get past the restrictions and get 11 to run on most of the fuck you I won't run 11 pc's.

I have been able to get past the blocks on multiple build upgrades.

Right now home pc builds are under attack.

Apple raised prices 20%
Microsoft blocks upgrades on good pc's
Intel cpu's now suck
A stick of ram will cost you your left nut.

I have ram I purchased for 100 bucks 2 years ago that is now 400 dollars.

I have ssd's purchased for 150 that are now 450

[Findingnemo]

~
Some would say "business as usual", and that is literally so - hodlers will hold and buy more, and weak hands will sell (even at a loss) and whine about how Bitcoin is a scam.

Weak hands never learn anything. They are parasites to the bitcoin as technology but as assets, they are the golden goose where the real long term investors can keep making profits.

Bitcoin is too big to fail now, since the institutional investments have become a part. Will that make any difference in their holding strategy?

Too big? Compared to what? If we look at the market cap we see $1.2 trillion, but if we take into account that between 1-2 million coins were lost (although some claim that the number is at least twice as large), then in a world of various values, that is not such a large value. The estimated value of gold is over $28 trillion at this time just for comparison.

To be clear, it is practically impossible to destroy Bitcoin unless someone shuts down the internet, but it is far from impossible to seriously harm it considering that they just need to declare it illegal, ban CEXs and that bank clients are not allowed to make transactions related to cryptocurrencies.

This would only happen if Bitcoin becomes a serious threat to their financial system (which we are astronomically far from), and in my opinion the more likely option is that they will try to change it from within by controlling all the larger mining farms and of course influencing the Core developers. Black Rock has been buying shares in the largest BTC mining farms for years and they say that it is already the majority owner in many.

Too big to fail in the sense, when they tried to ban it when it was $1000 which wasn't successful, then there is no way they are going to make it when bitcoin is 100K and possibly at a million dollar in the next 8-12 years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

So, why do they refuse to allow Windows 11 to be installed on a PC fully capable of running Windows 11?

Speculation is that this will eventually allow them to lock things down so that any software purchased has to go through MS. People have been getting around the requirements and reporting that it runs just fine (as much as Windows can be described as running fine anyway) though it appears that Microsoft are increasingly making this hard to do. Some, me included, think that Microsoft's moves toward a walled garden are what has prompted Valve to push forward on making Steam run on Linux and putting so much effort into Proton.

If you really work at it you can get past the restrictions and get 11 to run on most of the fuck you I won't run 11 pc's.

I have been able to get past the blocks on multiple build upgrades.

Right now home pc builds are under attack.

Apple raised prices 20%
Microsoft blocks upgrades on good pc's
Intel cpu's now suck
A stick of ram will cost you your left nut.

I have ram I purchased for 100 bucks 2 years ago that is now 400 dollars.

I have ssd's purchased for 150 that are now 450

@philipma1957 - Yes, both Ram and M.2 NVMe storage memory have really increased in price recently.

I recently cloned a 256GB M.2 NVMe SSD C: Drive to a 512GB M.2 NVMe SSD and swapped it out, and increased the Ram to 32GB and added a 2.5" 1TB internal SSD in a Dell 3670 PC purchased 6 years ago in 2020, and added a 1TB M.2 NVMe SSD in a Sabrent external enclosure for a family member. It was a nice and much needed upgrade because the original C: Drive was getting quite full and it didn't have enough Ram. For sure buying all that memory was pretty expensive - much higher than even just a few short years ago.    

A lot of sizeable businesses run Windows 11 trouble-free on both new and older PCs. Though I suspect some of the older PCs likely needed some increased Ram and storage memory added to meet the minimum requirements to run Windows 11, but that's typically not a problem to take care of.    

[xhomerx10]

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/microsoft/microsoft-quietly-extends-free-windows-10-esu-support-to-october-2027/

Consumers can continue to receive extended security for free using one of these methods:

Paying $30.

Hmmm.

"This extension provides customers with more time to transition to a new Windows 11 PC while continuing to receive critical security updates."

The major issue being that many people have perfectly functional hardware fully capable of running 11 that Microsoft refuses to allow 11 to be installed on.

So, why do they refuse to allow Windows 11 to be installed on a PC fully capable of running Windows 11?

Funny that people are willing to spend much more than the cost of a new or upgraded PC on their smartphone and service plan but refuse to replace or upgrade an old outdated PC...

Here's a restored Dell Inspiron PC available from Walmart with a decent processor and more Ram and storage memory than most people need, plus it comes with Office 2024 and pre-loaded with Windows Pro - all for just $271.

 The problem with that machine is that neither Dell nor Windows actually supports it.  You'll be stuck on whatever version they loaded when they bypassed the installation requirements (likely using 3rd party software), the machine will not be secure and major updates wont load properly.  That machine might be branded "Dell" but Dell would not have refurbished and sold that particular machine with win11 pro.  It isn't likely that it even originally shipped wit Win10.  If you are using Win11 on that device, you are putting your personal data at risk and with all the things people need to go online for these days, this is just a big no-no.  You'd be better off to load whatever old machine you have with Linux.

[ivomm]

Hey gang! Just dropping by to let you know I’m doing well, in case anyone was worried since I haven't posted here since my dad passed away late last year.

It’s a shame Bitcoin didn’t hit those expected highs and is sitting where it is right now. Sucks about MicroStrategy too—let's hope the Wall Street whales don't manage to liquidate them. Unfortunately, I didn't quite hit some of my wealth goals through the BTC I'm still holding. But I’ve learned to stop obsessing over the price and stopped dreaming about cashing out big and being set for life. I guess I’m a true HODLer now, having managed to keep most of my small stash intact.

Bitcoin in my life has just been the leverage I needed to take the risk of moving to a new city and starting a new job. I'm honestly super happy here—personally, spiritually, culturally, and socially. Realistically, I don't need anything more, so I don't want to (and won't) part with any more of my BTC unless it's a matter of life and death.

This mindset really helped me break that nasty habit of checking the charts multiple times a day. Now I barely look at the price every few weeks or even months, and it doesn't affect my mood at all.

Wishing you all the best, and hopefully, better days are ahead for all of us soon!!!

[Lucius]

~
Some would say "business as usual", and that is literally so - hodlers will hold and buy more, and weak hands will sell (even at a loss) and whine about how Bitcoin is a scam.

Weak hands never learn anything. They are parasites to the bitcoin as technology but as assets, they are the golden goose where the real long term investors can keep making profits.

Bitcoin is too big to fail now, since the institutional investments have become a part. Will that make any difference in their holding strategy?

Too big? Compared to what? If we look at the market cap we see $1.2 trillion, but if we take into account that between 1-2 million coins were lost (although some claim that the number is at least twice as large), then in a world of various values, that is not such a large value. The estimated value of gold is over $28 trillion at this time just for comparison.

To be clear, it is practically impossible to destroy Bitcoin unless someone shuts down the internet, but it is far from impossible to seriously harm it considering that they just need to declare it illegal, ban CEXs and that bank clients are not allowed to make transactions related to cryptocurrencies.

This would only happen if Bitcoin becomes a serious threat to their financial system (which we are astronomically far from), and in my opinion the more likely option is that they will try to change it from within by controlling all the larger mining farms and of course influencing the Core developers. Black Rock has been buying shares in the largest BTC mining farms for years and they say that it is already the majority owner in many.

Too big to fail in the sense, when they tried to ban it when it was $1000 which wasn't successful, then there is no way they are going to make it when bitcoin is 100K and possibly at a million dollar in the next 8-12 years.

Some would say "hasn't Bitcoin already failed?" In terms of what Satoshi envisioned, how many people actually use Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency, and how many just as an instrument for generating profit without even having any contact with Bitcoin itself?

Maybe I'm wrong, but "they" never tried to ban Bitcoin, they just intended to try to make it transparent for themselves, in other words, so they could determine who was the sender and who was the recipient in each transaction. Decentralized money that can finance various things at the same time is a good and bad idea, of course it depends from which angle you look at things.

In his documents, Snowden revealed that one of the most powerful three-letter agencies has been developing tools to track Bitcoin users since 2013 (probably even earlier), and that it was one of their highest priorities.

I think that today they can do absolutely everything they want in terms of analyzing all internet traffic, and with the help of advanced AI, that traffic can be analyzed much faster and more efficiently.

The truth is that under the current US administration, Bitcoin is not under direct threat because I believe that in addition to personal enrichment, it serves them for some other things that should remain under the radar. I have no doubt that the ultimate goal is to kill any idea of ​​Bitcoin as a decentralized money for ordinary people, to redirect everything to trading through CEXs, ETFs and companies like Strategy, and of course to seize as many coins as possible for the famous strategic reserves.

[vapourminer]

The problem with that machine is that neither Dell nor Windows actually supports it.  You'll be stuck on whatever version they loaded when they bypassed the installation requirements (likely using 3rd party software), the machine will not be secure and major updates wont load properly.  That machine might be branded "Dell" but Dell would not have refurbished and sold that particular machine with win11 pro.  It isn't likely that it even originally shipped wit Win10.  If you are using Win11 on that device, you are putting your personal data at risk and with all the things people need to go online for these days, this is just a big no-no.  You'd be better off to load whatever old machine you have with Linux.

it has a i7 4770 hahaha

yeah it is NOT officially win11 compatible

[Karl_3000]

Some would say "hasn't Bitcoin already failed?" In terms of what Satoshi envisioned, how many people actually use Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency, and how many just as an instrument for generating profit without even having any contact with Bitcoin itself?

I have a friend that bought his first car with bitcoin this year, the car dealer accepted. There are still many bitcoin transactions that are p2p. All of them that are using bitcoin in a wrong way still have a choice to use it in the right way. I am very greedy with my bitcoin right now because I just want to buy more if I have more money, I do not use it to buy anything or use it for other p2p right now, a time will come I will make money from it and I can decide to use bitcoin for p2p or to buy something. Those people that are saying bitcoin has failed do not know what they are saying, many people are using it for remittance also.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

The problem with that machine is that neither Dell nor Windows actually supports it.  You'll be stuck on whatever version they loaded when they bypassed the installation requirements (likely using 3rd party software), the machine will not be secure and major updates wont load properly.  That machine might be branded "Dell" but Dell would not have refurbished and sold that particular machine with win11 pro.  It isn't likely that it even originally shipped wit Win10.  If you are using Win11 on that device, you are putting your personal data at risk and with all the things people need to go online for these days, this is just a big no-no.  You'd be better off to load whatever old machine you have with Linux.

it has a i7 4770 hahaha

yeah it is NOT officially win11 compatible

Yeah that is too old a cpu.

Also the psu is likely garbage.

If you  want old gear some where some place I did a thread on a small form cpu. With an i8700 32 gb ram  and an actual small gpu. 2tb

ssd

It was around 500 dollars . Although now it is likely 1000  bucks

https://www.ebay.com/itm/358722154534

this unit is 150 usd.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/287414346849?  Add this card.

Maybe 400

For 550 a very good machine

Down  the road you can add more ram and a bigger ssd.

[Hueristic]

Some would say "hasn't Bitcoin already failed?" In terms of what Satoshi envisioned, how many people actually use Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency, and how many just as an instrument for generating profit without even having any contact with Bitcoin itself?
...

Your not seeing the forest for the trees.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Some would say "hasn't Bitcoin already failed?" In terms of what Satoshi envisioned, how many people actually use Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency, and how many just as an instrument for generating profit without even having any contact with Bitcoin itself?

Bitcoin is Bitcoin, it is not designed to fix individual people. Bitcoin is how it is and continues to provide an ability to use it correctly to those that want to exercise their freedom to do so. Bitcoin is not responsible for the decisions of individuals and because of that it can not be considered a failure if some people decide to use it the wrong way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-06-27 (Midday Edition)

Published: 2026-06-27 01:10 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways in the $60,300 range on a Saturday, trapped below its 30-day average as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 15 in extreme fear for the seventh straight day. The dominant story isn't the price action itself, but the bleeding from Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen $1.35 billion exit last week alone, signaling that institutional patience is wearing thin. With Strategy's MSTR stock down nearly 50% and Germany's seized Bitcoin sale looking less embarrassing as prices recover, the market is caught between corporate conviction and macro caution.

Outlook: I'm watching the $58,000 support level closely; if it holds, we might see a sideways grind, but a breakdown could push us toward the $50,000s. The key trigger to watch is the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, which is currently spooking investors out of risk assets. Until ETF outflows stabilize and the macro environment cools, expect thin weekend liquidity and no clear direction.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,387.00 (+0.60%).

Extreme Fear at 15 signals capitulation pressure, yet the +0.60% daily gain suggests sellers are exhausted rather than aggressive. Exchange netflow dominance indicates accumulation, with holders moving coins off exchanges into cold storage, reducing immediate sell-side liquidity. The negative premium of -0.82 USD reflects weak spot demand relative to derivatives, hinting at short-term bearish bias. BTC's 17.8% monthly decline tests critical support, but the lack of a volume spike on the drop implies no panic selling yet. A flip to positive premium and rising exchange outflows would confirm accumulation; failure to hold $60k could trigger a retest of lower liquidity zones.

SCENARIOS

- Accumulation Breakout (40%): Triggers: Exchange netflow turns negative, premium flips positive, BTC holds $60k with rising volume. Invalidation: Break below $58,000 with high volume.
- Range-Bound Consolidation (35%): Triggers: Exchange netflow remains mixed, premium stays negative, BTC oscillates between $58k-$62k. Invalidation: Break above $63,000 or below $57,000.
- Bearish Continuation (25%): Triggers: Exchange netflow turns positive, premium deepens negative, BTC breaks $58,000. Invalidation: Reclaim of $60,000 with strong volume.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

-Strategy's MSTR Decline: Strategy's common stock (MSTR) fell nearly 50% in the past month, closing at $82.31, despite CEO Phong Le reaffirming the company's focus on Bitcoin accumulation during market stress.
-Germany's Bitcoin Sale Recovery: Germany's sale of nearly 50,000 seized Bitcoin, which averaged $57,900 per coin, now looks less embarrassing as the current price of ~$60,400 narrows the gap to under $3,000.
-Macro Pressure from Fed: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rising interest rates and 4.2% inflation is spooking investors, pushing capital out of risk assets like Bitcoin and into safer alternatives.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy's MSTR Stock Drops Nearly 50% as Saylor Reaffirms Bitcoin Focus
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/michael-saylor-reaffirms-strategys-bitcoin-focus-as-market-volatility-intensifies
Published: 2026-06-27 12:30 PM CT
Summary: Strategy's common stock (MSTR) fell 47.49% in the past month, closing at $82.31 on June 26, while its preferred stock (STRC) dropped 25.05% over the same period. CEO Phong Le stated the company accumulated 4% of the world's bitcoin supply specifically for times of market stress, calling BTC and AI the two most transformative technologies of the century. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor emphasized disciplined capital allocation and credit quality, describing STRC as an income product for investors who believe in bitcoin. The article notes Strategy holds 846,842 BTC, a position that has grown significantly since surviving the 2022 downturn when bitcoin fell below $16,000. Despite management's conviction, the Fear and Greed Index sits at 14, indicating extreme fear in the market.

2. Germany's Bitcoin Sale Looks Less Embarrassing as Price Nears Break-Even
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-nears-price-germany-sold-buy-back-49858-btc
Published: 2026-06-27 09:27 AM CT
Summary: Germany sold nearly 50,000 seized Bitcoin in 2024 for about $2.89 billion, averaging $57,900 per coin. The move was widely mocked when Bitcoin briefly hit $125,000, but the current price of roughly $60,400 has narrowed the gap to under $3,000. Critics now argue the government avoided a deep drawdown rather than leaving billions on the table. El Salvador continues to accumulate Bitcoin for its national reserve, contrasting sharply with Berlin's liquidation strategy. The market remains in extreme fear, with Bitcoin ETFs bleeding for a seventh consecutive day.

3. Bitcoin Price Analysis: $59K Support and Halving Timeline
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bottom-btc-usd-price-22-070050690.html
Published: 2026-06-27 03:00 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin is trading around $59,890, down 5.1% over the past week as it tests the $58,000 support level that held for 20 months. The drop follows a broader tech stock sell-off and expectations of higher US interest rates, which pushed investors out of risk assets. With the next halving 22 months away, historical patterns suggest an accumulation phase may be starting, though the path there could be volatile. The article outlines three scenarios: a bounce above $61,000, sideways grinding between $58K and $61K, or a breakdown below $58K toward the $50Ks if dollar liquidity tightens. The piece also promotes Bitcoin Hyper, a Layer 2 project with SVM integration, noting its presale has raised nearly $33 million.

4. Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit Seventh Week as Price Dips Below $60K
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etf-outflows-extend-seventh-170400607.html
Published: 2026-06-26 01:04 PM CT
Summary: Capital is leaving Bitcoin ETFs for the seventh straight week, with $1.35 billion exiting last week alone. The outflows accelerated on June 25, when a single day saw $696.3 million leave as Bitcoin dropped under $60,000. Year-to-date net outflows now total $4.6 billion, while June alone has seen $3.61 billion exit. Institutional investors are moving into safer assets, spooked by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rising interest rates. inflation at 4.2%-double the Fed's target-Bitcoin is trading near a two-year low, pressured by the lack of yield in a high-rate environment.

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