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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27024370 times)
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Writing on the Wall


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July 27, 2026, 10:30:46 AM



gentlemen,

we have ancient methods of going back home, since the dawn of a golden age,.

we see that eggs come before the chicken.

Sage Juanjee was right. Nothing makes any fucking sense.

Look at the image.

The location: Ramankulangara.

Real location name: Vellayitambalam (Proof: Banyan Tree)

is HDFC a fake bank afterall?

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Writing on the Wall


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July 27, 2026, 10:59:27 AM

Behold! The Real Truth, We have a new tendency of Movie Trends which influences dumb minds to pretend they are cool.

For eg: "Fast and Religious" aka Sidequestjesus

Since we are in the Gen Z age brosef

anyway,

Here in India, we have a major problemo.

Everyone I meet is a bhairava which means something like horny asswipe.

Pic for reference:

I am little concerned right now, about their salvation and stuff man.

How come a truly religious person be a horny asswipe?
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July 27, 2026, 01:14:21 PM
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When everything around you is burning, you have the choice to run away or to find the best place and pretend that nothing is happening.



Maximilien Lamy/AFP, lake Lacanau, France.
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July 27, 2026, 01:38:57 PM

[edited out]
I have looked for a study on the growth effect of the chain with and without and the cost of spam if enabled https://beincrypto.com/bip-110-ordinals-bitcoin-spam-debate/.

And I can't find shit, all I see if name calling and arguments for the last few years and no-one publishing actual verifiable facts.
The thing about "verifiable facts of the future" is that they don't yet exist, since they are by definition in the future.   Wink
We have a tool for this, you have heard of it, it's called "The Scientific Method".

I am not even going to proclaim that there are any folks who are better at predicting (or preparing for) the future than others

Is that not literally how we measure intelligence? Even Elon Musk said "The right metric for intelligence is probably the ability to predict the future".

The "right" metric for measuring intelligence is the ability to think in networked ways, opposed to thinking in linear ways.



When you buy a car, you plan which color, which motor, which mileage, which fuel type etc. and where you need to go to buy it. All those actions get planned in your brain in "networked ways". You make plans to realise the future you want which shows you predicted what you need to do to have such a future. Quite smart there Wink



That doesn't include social or emotional intelligence


How smart is angry? Does knowing the etiquette of opening the door for a woman count as intelligent or only if done instinctively?
I really have no idea how anything other than logical intelligence is measured. Every measurement is a logical one, is it not Huh
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July 27, 2026, 02:02:20 PM


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July 27, 2026, 02:02:33 PM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-27 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-27 09:02 AM CT

Monday starts with Bitcoin grinding higher at $65,171, up 1% in the last day, but the Fear & Greed Index at 30 (Fear) for six straight days tells you this isn't a breakout - it's a cautious crawl. The dominant story is Michael Saylor arguing that excluding bitcoin from banks and capital markets caps its potential at 1%, while his own company holds 843,775 BTC at a loss relative to its average purchase price. Price sits above the 30-day moving average of $63,294, but the flat three-day change and persistent fear suggest the market is waiting for a catalyst, not chasing momentum.

Outlook: Keep an eye on whether Strategy announces another large bitcoin purchase, as Saylor hinted, and whether that shifts sentiment or just adds to the overhang of underwater holdings. The drop in dormant BTC movement to a four-year low suggests long-term holders have stopped selling, which could reduce supply pressure if demand picks up. Watch for any shift in the Fear & Greed Index above 30 - that would signal the market is ready to move beyond this grind.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,171.00 (+1.09%).

The market is in a choppy phase with Bitcoin at $65,171.00, up 1.09% in 24 hours but still reflecting Fear at 30 on the Fear & Greed Index. Exchange netflow is elevated at +5/50, which typically signals coins moving onto exchanges, often a precursor to selling. However, the 30-day gain of 8.7% suggests buyers are absorbing that supply without a breakdown. Control remains contested: sellers have the sentiment edge, but buyers are defending recent lows. A decisive move above $67,000 would likely shift momentum to bulls, while a drop below $63,000 could accelerate selling. The chop persists until one side exhausts the other.

SCENARIOS

- Bullish Reversal (35%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims $67,000 with rising volume and exchange netflow turns negative, indicating accumulation. Invalidation: Price fails at $67,000 and drops below $63,000.
- Range-Bound Consolidation (45%): triggers: Price oscillates between $63,000 and $67,000, with exchange netflow staying neutral and Fear index hovering near 30. Invalidation: A breakout above $67,000 or breakdown below $63,000 on high volume.
- Bearish Breakdown (20%): triggers: Exchange netflow spikes above +10/50, pushing price below $63,000 with Fear index dropping to 20 or lower. Invalidation: Price holds above $63,000 and netflow reverses.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- [Saylor's Integration Push]: Michael Saylor argued that excluding bitcoin from banks and custodians limits its potential to 1%, while Citigroup and Morgan Stanley plan bitcoin custody services in 2026.

- [Dormant BTC Movement Lows]: Galaxy research reported that dormant Bitcoin movement fell to its lowest level since Q3 2022, indicating long-term holders have slowed selling after elevated distribution in 2024 and 2025.

TOP STORIES

1. Saylor: Rejecting Bitcoin's Bank and Market Integration 'Dooms It to 1% of Its Potential
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/saylor-bitcoin-bank-integration-99-percent
Published: 2026-07-27
Summary: Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor argued that excluding bitcoin from banks, custodians, and capital markets limits its potential to 1% of what it could achieve. Strategy holds 843,775 BTC worth roughly $55 billion, below its average purchase price of $75,482 per coin. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are building bitcoin custody services in 2026, which aligns with Saylor's push for integration. Strategy has shifted its messaging to frame its bitcoin holdings as collateral for financial products like its STRC preferred stock. Saylor hinted at another large bitcoin purchase, posting that the company may need a new color on its acquisition chart.

2. Bitcoin Reclaims $65,500 but Volatility Remains as US Liquidity Hits $5.92 Trillion
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf-outflows-liquidity-5-92-trillion
Published: 2026-07-27
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $65,300 after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $465 million in combined outflows on July 23 and July 24, ending a seven-session inflow streak. The withdrawals erased most but not all of the prior week's momentum, with net inflows of $33.79 million for the week overall. Ethra Invest CEO Saeed Al-Marri attributed the pullbacks to forced selling, noting that longs are being liquidated six times as often as shorts. net liquidity climbed to roughly $5.92 trillion, up more than 3% over the past 12 weeks, a level historically associated with looser financial conditions.

3. Bitcoin Long-term Selling Eases, Dormant BTC Movement Hits 4-Year Low
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-og-dormant-btc-movement-thorn
Published: 2026-07-26
Summary: Dormant Bitcoin movement fell to its lowest level since Q3 2022 in the second quarter, according to Galaxy research. The coin days destroyed metric also showed a similar decline. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, attributed earlier spikes to long-term holders taking profit, a pattern seen during Bitcoin's 2017 bull market. The data suggests these holders have slowed selling after elevated distribution in 2024 and 2025. Analysts watch dormant coin movement because increased activity from long-term holders has historically coincided with profit-taking and selling pressure.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.3.11 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark
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July 27, 2026, 02:38:28 PM
Last edit: July 27, 2026, 04:35:40 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), vapourminer (1), OutOfMemory (1)

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-27 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-27 09:02 AM CT

[...]

1. Saylor: Rejecting Bitcoin's Bank and Market Integration 'Dooms It to 1% of Its Potential'

[...]


BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.3.11 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark

Nitpicking...

Closing single quote missing from story title (added in red above). Closing quote exists in the story's source.
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July 27, 2026, 04:03:39 PM
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What's actually objectionable is the arbitrary merging of changes that slip through directly to blocks, although op_return bump to 100kb is foolish.
The bump had no impact at all on the network, don't be foolish yourself. There is no data that suggests otherwise. Any claims against op_return were proven to be false since the change became live.

BIP110 does not stop data inclusion, it was demonstrated that you can include continuous image data with transactions that are compatible with BIP110. It is just a rushed proposal aimed at taking control over Bitcoin, we have seen this in the past.
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July 27, 2026, 04:25:08 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (43), vapourminer (4), JayJuanGee (1), cAPSLOCK (1), nutildah (1), goldkingcoiner (1), OutOfMemory (1), psycodad (1)

feb 29 1996

so 30 plus years no smokes.

you guys with your exact dates.

i stopped smoking (vaping) a few years ago.. thats about as close as i can make it.

same with a particular drug that had me back in the day, no particular date of cessation just 50 odd years ago for that one.

basically, as i managed to stop before i die, its a close enough timeframe i reckon



I smoked my last tobacco cigarette on February 26, 1985. I didn't "quit". I simply haven't taken the action of smoking since then.

Quitting isn't an action. Smoking is. Smoking involves obtaining a cigarette, lighting it and inhaling it, all actions.

Quitting  simply involves not doing anything. Making a big deal out of quitting is just crybaby behavior.
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July 27, 2026, 05:19:24 PM
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Well, this is extremely off-topic, but... I kind of like two of you. Maybe three...  So I'm going to share my strangely stronger grief than I would have expected in mentioning that.... A podcaster and computer columnist that I have known of and followed to some extent for most of my adult life passed away this last week, John C. Dvorak. I've mentioned his and Adam Curry's (one of the original MTV DJs and a brilliant and quirky man) podcast "No Agenda" a few times on this site.  It's actually a really good podcast and possibly the oldest one running as Curry is said to have invented podcasting and John was right there with him from early on.

Anyway, I decided today to listen to the first hour before I start doing some work on a camper roof that's busted and the show has a iconic, well-produced, glitzy intro over which Curry does most of the announcery kind of talking and then dvorak comes in after and wraps it up and the show number was spoken and then the talking just stopped in the intro music kept going and I knew it immediately. This is it.  John fucking died.

I actually wept a little.

Anyway, I need to say something on topic, so number go up or something.
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July 27, 2026, 05:21:12 PM
Last edit: July 27, 2026, 05:57:41 PM by OutOfMemory
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

[edited out]
I have looked for a study on the growth effect of the chain with and without and the cost of spam if enabled https://beincrypto.com/bip-110-ordinals-bitcoin-spam-debate/.

And I can't find shit, all I see if name calling and arguments for the last few years and no-one publishing actual verifiable facts.
The thing about "verifiable facts of the future" is that they don't yet exist, since they are by definition in the future.   Wink
We have a tool for this, you have heard of it, it's called "The Scientific Method".

I am not even going to proclaim that there are any folks who are better at predicting (or preparing for) the future than others

Is that not literally how we measure intelligence? Even Elon Musk said "The right metric for intelligence is probably the ability to predict the future".

The "right" metric for measuring intelligence is the ability to think in networked ways, opposed to thinking in linear ways.



When you buy a car, you plan which color, which motor, which mileage, which fuel type etc. and where you need to go to buy it. All those actions get planned in your brain in "networked ways". You make plans to realise the future you want which shows you predicted what you need to do to have such a future. Quite smart there Wink


Not quite the same, these are all parallel thoughts that lead to a defined goal ("car i like").
Networked thinking when planning to buy a car would be looking beyond the sales price and general properties to analyze how the purchase impacts your finances, lifestyle, infrastructure, and the environment over time.

Quote

That doesn't include social or emotional intelligence


How smart is angry? Does knowing the etiquette of opening the door for a woman count as intelligent or only if done instinctively?
I really have no idea how anything other than logical intelligence is measured. Every measurement is a logical one, is it not Huh

Angry is smart, but only if applied in a situation where it leads you to a desired result. But, sure, you can tell someone to "fuck off" nicely and politely, if he just wanted to dedicate a nice sucker punch to your head. "Smart" is the common strategy to reaching a goal by investing the least possible effort.

Learned behavior (as in the door-opening-for-woman) most times has a predictable result in the back of your mind, a pattern, as expecting a kind reply, most possibly to be recognized by the woman in a positive way, or if you were taught to do so in that particular situation (aka. manners). This may be a result of social intelligence, stored as a kind of pattern in your mind. But intelligence is about future, less predictable outcomes. You connect results from past experiences that match good enough to fill in the "holes" of a (social) puzzle to gain (social) advantage. In more precise terms, intelligence is your helping hand on the way to knowledge that can be applied further to achieve desired results. Most times you interconnect known patterns to others, to solve problems you haven't solved before, which would again be stored as a pattern in your mind.
A good example for the lack of intelligence is trying the same solution and expecting different outcomes, or the opposite, trying to solve new problems using old solutions. (For example: tariffs).

I don't know how good my explanation is, but it seems too long to me and thus possibly hard to follow, so here are Gemini's results for those two terms (Emotional and Social intelligence):

Quote from: Gemini
Social intelligence is our ability to understand and navigate human relations, manage social situations effectively, and connect with others using verbal and non-verbal cues

Emotional Intelligence (EQ) is the ability to perceive, understand, and manage your own emotions as well as the emotions of others.

EDIT: I'm particularly bad in both categories (certified!), but i compensate much in the EQ department using cognitive thinking, and in the case of social intelligence, by using "masking" and "scripting" strategies.

I still wonder why i don't use AI much more for simple, effective explanations instead of writing less focused, more confusing, lengthy constructions of text to explain something.   Roll Eyes


Nitpicking...

Closing single quote missing from story title (added in red above). Closing quote exists in the story's source.

Nitpicking?
That's what i'd call a brilliant observer.

I obviously love nitpicking, then.  Cool

feb 29 1996

so 30 plus years no smokes.

you guys with your exact dates.

i stopped smoking (vaping) a few years ago.. thats about as close as i can make it.

same with a particular drug that had me back in the day, no particular date of cessation just 50 odd years ago for that one.

basically, as i managed to stop before i die, its a close enough timeframe i reckon



I smoked my last tobacco cigarette on February 26, 1985. I didn't "quit". I simply haven't taken the action of smoking since then.

Quitting isn't an action. Smoking is. Smoking involves obtaining a cigarette, lighting it and inhaling it, all actions.

Quitting  simply involves not doing anything. Making a big deal out of quitting is just crybaby behavior.

It's not quitting, it's the beginning of not smoking.
A wise man once said "quitting makes you feel like losing, whereas beginning makes you feel to gain something".

Nah, that was just me, and i wouldn't call myself wise anyway  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
However, i think i never had serious problems with quitting anything, because i had reasons. A reason is the one thing that keeps you from doing something. Of course, a reason is also the one thing that makes you do something.

EDIT: Thinking that after, most of my motivations are mostly driven by reasons, not anything as much by needs. I guess that's why reasons are quite important to me, generally, so i can overrule the weight of needs vs. reasons in decision more easily. I find many reasons daily which make me neglect my needs, but also my fears. So i am mentally most efficient in critical or challenging situations. Must have saved my life (and also the life of others) a few times.

EDIT2: This. And i can overthink faster than a rabbit can fuck  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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July 27, 2026, 06:43:48 PM

Well, this is extremely off-topic, but... I kind of like two of you. Maybe three...  So I'm going to share my strangely stronger grief than I would have expected in mentioning that.... A podcaster and computer columnist that I have known of and followed to some extent for most of my adult life passed away this last week, John C. Dvorak. I've mentioned his and Adam Curry's (one of the original MTV DJs and a brilliant and quirky man) podcast "No Agenda" a few times on this site.  It's actually a really good podcast and possibly the oldest one running as Curry is said to have invented podcasting and John was right there with him from early on.

Anyway, I decided today to listen to the first hour before I start doing some work on a camper roof that's busted and the show has a iconic, well-produced, glitzy intro over which Curry does most of the announcery kind of talking and then dvorak comes in after and wraps it up and the show number was spoken and then the talking just stopped in the intro music kept going and I knew it immediately. This is it.  John fucking died.

I actually wept a little.

No surprise, because i would consider this experience as quite dramatic if i found myself in that situation.

Quote
Anyway, I need to say something on topic, so number go up or something.

Seconded  Grin
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