Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Explanation
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Hmm, i finally have some free time and then it's tumbleweeds in here 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

feb 29 1996

so 30 plus years no smokes.

you guys with your exact dates.

i stopped smoking (vaping) a few years ago.. thats about as close as i can make it.

same with a particular drug that had me back in the day, no particular date of cessation just 50 odd years ago for that one.

basically, as i managed to stop before i die, its a close enough timeframe i reckon

I smoked my last tobacco cigarette on February 26, 1985. I didn't "quit". I simply haven't taken the action of smoking since then.

Quitting isn't an action. Smoking is. Smoking involves obtaining a cigarette, lighting it and inhaling it, all actions.

Quitting  simply involves not doing anything. Making a big deal out of quitting is just crybaby behavior.

Interestingly I quit many times over the years, it seems the older I get the tougher it is.

Usually picked it up again when getting shitfaced with buddy's that smoke.

There may or not have been drugs involved.

I have zero clue if its age related or because of freebasing it since the 70's.

Just came in after cleaning bottles for the wine I stabilized yesterday and was thinking of running to the store for a cigar and read this post.

[BitHodlers]

Interestingly I quit many times over the years, it seems the older I get the tougher it is.

I have zero clue if its age related or because of freebasing it since the 70's.

Each time you say to yourself that you will do something (quit) but don't actually do it since you resume you weaken your willpower to actually do stuff like that. As you repeat this over the years it may appear age related, but it is mostly because you have accumulated many instances of failing to do this.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

[edited out]

I have looked for a study on the growth effect of the chain with and without and the cost of spam if enabled https://beincrypto.com/bip-110-ordinals-bitcoin-spam-debate/.

And I can't find shit, all I see if name calling and arguments for the last few years and no-one publishing actual verifiable facts.

The thing about "verifiable facts of the future" is that they don't yet exist, since they are by definition in the future.  

We have a tool for this, you have heard of it, it's called "The Scientific Method".

I am not even going to proclaim that there are any folks who are better at predicting (or preparing for) the future than others

Is that not literally how we measure intelligence? Even Elon Musk said "The right metric for intelligence is probably the ability to predict the future".

The "right" metric for measuring intelligence is the ability to think in networked ways, opposed to thinking in linear ways.

When you buy a car, you plan which color, which motor, which mileage, which fuel type etc. and where you need to go to buy it. All those actions get planned in your brain in "networked ways". You make plans to realise the future you want which shows you predicted what you need to do to have such a future. Quite smart there

That doesn't include social or emotional intelligence

How smart is angry? Does knowing the etiquette of opening the door for a woman count as intelligent or only if done instinctively?
I really have no idea how anything other than logical intelligence is measured. Every measurement is a logical one, is it not

I TAKE ANY COLOR when I get a car except White or Red.

I never order one it has to be on the lot. It has to have certain features.

IE must be a hybrid and must auto drive. Must be new.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Hmm buddy has a full boat 666 over 33

[cAPSLOCK]

1.  BIP110 signaling remains weak and things go on like they are now
2.  The real core (haha) of the BIP110 crowd rationalize that a fork is the only move left.
3.  Bitcoinjr.

I just do not see another path forward.

Where I am still unclear is around what this does to public opinion etc.  It will be the first hard fork almost everyone has seen.  "Which is the real bitcoin" becomes the topic.  Price could suffer.

In the end it does not matter.  Bitcoin survives.  But in the meantime...

Not sure.

Just thinking aloud, so to say. I would like to elicit some discourse more than state my well-formed, polished opinion (no such thing on this matter).

I don't know where I am on this one. I've thoroughly despised NFTs and ordinals and things linked to one specific satoshi. On the other hand, is a ban the best choice? Would it be effective? Who gets to decide how many bits is fair or draw the red line? There are ways around bans. Steganography on the blockchain? Are we centralizing into a caste of seers who interpret the community feedback after one year and tell us if the community liked that? The miners do need incentives, more so as the rewards decay exponentially. Maybe it could be adjusted dynamically with signaling from miner and users - the latter, for example, by voting with the miner fees from their own transactions.

TL;DR: Much as I don't like inshitptions, I don't think BIP110 is a good solution.

I have looked for a study on the growth effect of the chain with and without and the cost of spam if enabled https://beincrypto.com/bip-110-ordinals-bitcoin-spam-debate/.

And I can't find shit, all I see if name calling and arguments for the last few years and no-one publishing actual verifiable facts.

Chain will grow at the consensus limits set including the segwit discount.  OP_Return will not have that discount.  But ultimately it does not affect chain size outside of possibly leading to more full blocks.

This is one of Core's central arguments as the policy change for op_return will have no impact on block size.

On a related note I actually think Samson Mow's recent nuanced post about his position is fairly good.  Well I like it because I pretty much agree with him on this, I think.

Source:  https://x.com/Excellion/status/2081556974706020507

I'm currently being accused of flipping sides or contradicting myself. I choose my words carefully, but it seems that is lost on most people. So, let me break it down. 👇🧵

➡️ I hate spam and Ordinals garbage.
➡️ I support efforts to limit spam even if it is a cat-and-mouse game.
➡️ Spam is a nuisance, not existential. Fees and block size limit the damage.
➡️ It is certainly not a reason to push contentious consensus rules through in a rush.
➡️ My opinion is Core should not have removed the OP_RETURN limit.
➡️ The OP_RETURN limit is policy and not a consensus rule, so it didn't matter if they removed it or left it alone. They should have left it alone, but that is just my opinion.
➡️ I cannot force Core to do anything, and they have no obligation to do anything I would like them to do. I can voice my opinion on what they are doing, but it is ultimately their project and they can do what they want.
➡️ If I want something changed, I have to either develop my own version of Core or fund developers to work on what I want done.
➡️ There are people in Core, and closely associated with Core, who said a lot of stupid things that did not help their cause.
➡️ Even if some devs said stupid things, they cannot sneak changes into the code to destroy Bitcoin.
➡️ There are structural problems and a risk of groupthink in the Core organization.
➡️ Even if the process to select maintainers is flawed, maintainers can't unilaterally do anything.
➡️ It's good that Gloria stepped down, given the situation around how she was appointed as maintainer (this one will probably upset the Core white knights).
➡️ Those who defended Core without acknowledging behavioral issues of some individuals, contributed to the divide and helped foment mistrust among those who don't fully understand the IETF-like process.
➡️ There are a lot of very talented and good developers in Core who just work quietly without drama.
➡️ We absolutely need skilled developers working on maintaining and securing the Bitcoin codebase. Bitcoin is a very complex piece of software that needs a lot of eyes reviewing and testing all changes.
➡️ I believe we should move towards ossification, but ossification does not mean you just stop all development. Security is a moving target that needs constant resources to maintain.
➡️ I never supported BIP110. BIP110 is not a serious or viable proposal.

I assumed that people could pick up on nuance and that there are common-sense things that don't need to be said, but I'm seeing that isn't the case.

If you're quoting things I posted before and framing them as a "gotcha," or evidence to put me on trial for "betraying BIP110," you're only showing your own ignorance of the subject matter.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-27 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-07-27 09:02 PM CT

Monday opens with Bitcoin grinding lower at $63,172, down 3% in the past day and 5% over the week, as Fear & Greed holds at 29 for a seventh straight session. The dominant story is institutional caution: EverSource Wealth Advisors disclosed modest crypto ETF holdings in a 13F filing, but that news is overshadowed by nearly half a billion dollars in Bitcoin ETF outflows late last week, reversing a seven-day inflow streak. Price sits below the 30-day moving average, and the sentiment trend is deteriorating.

Outlook: The key question is whether ETF outflows continue this week or if the prior inflow momentum resumes - the reversal from nearly $1B in new cash to $475M in redemptions suggests fragile sentiment. Watch for any escalation in Middle East tensions or oil price moves, which analysts flagged as headwinds for a rebound.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $63,172.00 (-3.04%).

The market is in a clear risk-off posture, with Bitcoin down 5% on the week and the Fear & Greed Index at 29, signaling deep fear. Exchange netflow has turned negative at -3/50, meaning more coins are leaving exchanges than arriving, which historically suggests reduced selling pressure. However, price action remains weak, and the 24-hour decline of 3.04% shows sellers still have the upper hand. The dominant theme is this netflow divergence: outflows imply holders are moving coins to cold storage, but the price drop indicates buyers are not stepping in aggressively. For control to shift, we would need to see a sustained move above $65,000 with increasing volume, or a stabilization of the 7-day loss trend. Until then, the bears are in charge, and the market is testing whether this fear is a buying opportunity or a precursor to further downside.

SCENARIOS

- Bearish Continuation (45%): triggers: BTC breaks below $60,000 with increasing volume, Fear & Greed stays below 30, and exchange netflow turns positive. Invalidation: A bounce above $64,500 with declining selling volume.
- Range-Bound Consolidation (35%): triggers: BTC holds between $60,000 and $65,000 for 5-7 days, exchange netflow remains negative, and Fear & Greed oscillates between 25 and 35. Invalidation: A close below $59,500 or above $66,000.
- Sentiment-Driven Reversal (20%): triggers: A sharp drop in exchange netflow to -10 or lower, a daily close above $64,000, and Fear & Greed rising above 35. Invalidation: A new 7-day low below $61,000.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Geopolitical Headwinds: Analysts cited uncertainty around war in the Middle East and rising oil prices as potential drags on a Bitcoin rebound.

- Bitcoin vs. Gold Performance: A five-year comparison shows Bitcoin returned 91% versus gold's 83%, with Bitcoin's path including a 77% crash in 2022 and a recovery to $126,000 in October 2025.

TOP STORIES

1. Major wealth manager discloses Bitcoin, XRP holdings
URL: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/major-wealth-manager-discloses-bitcoin-200049536.html
Published: 2026-07-27 11:00 AM CT
Summary: EverSource Wealth Advisors disclosed its crypto holdings in a 13F filing with the SEC. The firm holds Bitcoin primarily through ETFs, with the largest position in the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin fund at $23.4 million. It also holds a small stake in American Bitcoin, the Trump family's mining and treasury company. The XRP exposure includes the Franklin XRP ETF, the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, and shares in a Ripple-backed SPAC. Other holdings include Strategy, Coinbase Global, and several Bitcoin miners.

2. Bitcoin ETFs Bled Nearly Half a Billion Dollars End of Last Week, Reversing Sentiment
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-etfs-see-investor-reversal
Published: 2026-07-27
Summary: Investors redeemed over $475 million from American Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday and Friday, ending a seven-day winning streak. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust handled most of the trading activity during the outflows. The funds had taken in nearly $1 billion in new cash from July 14-22, which had put upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin's price stood at $64,544 and was unmoved over a seven-day period, though it is down over 26% year-to-date and nearly 50% below its October record of $126,080. Analysts cited uncertainty around war in the Middle East and rising oil prices as potential headwinds for a rebound.

3. If you had invested $1,000 in gold instead of Bitcoin five years ago, here is what each is worth today
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/had-invested-1-000-gold-233000269.html
Published: 2026-07-27 07:30 PM CT
Summary: A $1,000 investment in Bitcoin in July 2021 would be worth $1,911 today, a 91% return. The same amount in gold would be worth $1,834, an 83% return. Bitcoin's path included a 77% crash in 2022 and a recovery to an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Gold climbed steadily through geopolitical tension and inflation without major drawdowns. The article concludes that over this five-year window, the performance gap between the two assets was only eight percentage points, far narrower than partisans on either side admit.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.3.12 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[cAPSLOCK]

I forbid the price from continuing this nonsense.

Is it Bawb spending all his corns on more Boltzmann Brains I wonder?

We may have reinvented the system in which we exist.

Crack...

[philipma1957]

I forbid the price from continuing this nonsense.

Is it Bawb spending all his corns on more Boltzmann Brains I wonder?

We may have reinvented the system in which we exist.

Crack...

price is going to whatever it wants to do.

still stacking.

heres hoping for a rally down the road.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[cAPSLOCK]

I forbid the price from continuing this nonsense.

Is it Bawb spending all his corns on more Boltzmann Brains I wonder?

We may have reinvented the system in which we exist.

Crack...

price is going to whatever it wants to do.

still stacking.

heres hoping for a rally down the road.

It just always does that.  But that second part too.

If we get one more big pullback and we bottom in October I'm going to start smoking again.

🚬