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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 31 (35.6%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 21 (24.1%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 22 (25.3%)
No - other (explain below) - 13 (14.9%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27026057 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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July 29, 2026, 03:28:49 AM
Last edit: July 29, 2026, 04:05:39 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by El duderino_ (10), Hueristic (1)

I forbid the price from continuing this nonsense.
Is it Bawb spending all his corns on more Boltzmann Brains I wonder?

We may have reinvented the system in which we exist.
Crack...
price is going to whatever it wants to do.

still stacking.
heres hoping for a rally down the road.
It just always does that.  But that second part too.
If we get one more big pullback and we bottom in October I'm going to start smoking again.
🚬

That would be a wee bit crazy if the various strict 4-year cycle fanatics end up being correct about October being a bottom month.

It would also seem to be a bit of a lesser case scenario that we would get something like sub $50k for our low for this part of the cycle.  With straight out of my ass calculations, at this time, I would put the odds of the BTC price reaching lower than $50k - even with a spike within this particular part of the cycle - to be around 35% or less.

Boltzmann Brains
the fact that i could be some boltzmanns brain (likely with alzheimers) is oddly distressing and comforting at the same time.

I am a widdo bit sad to admit that it comes off as too BIG of a proposition for this here baby brain to take in.

im gonna bust outtra my vat!!!!
and when i do ima gonna roll across the lab and down the hall and.....

hmmm
ok back to the vat to think this though more

Hahahahaha

That reminds me of some of the thinking of my little selfie.

Sure I don't mind trying to contemplate one or two legs into the future, yet sometimes if too many legs are involved, then there tend to be too many variables, so that any of the branches of the subsequent leg becomes harder and harder to imagine the odds of ending up on that particular branch.

[edited out]
What a great post! I can't say there is anything I disagree with here.

Which for a curmudgeon is a hard pill to swallow! Cheesy

hahahaha

I am not going to fight against your self-description as a curmudgeon.  It seems to fit some aspects of my visions of you.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Some of my best friends are curmudgeons.

 Tongue Tongue Tongue

[edited out]
But the diff dropped twice. So mining is a bit improved.

 Latest Block:   959978  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   95.7146%  (363 / 379.25 expected, 16.25 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 121201238369881 and 124537721936567
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.9850% and -1.3418%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 8, 2026 at 11:35 PM  (in 11d 13h 43m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 9, 2026 at 9:41 AM  (in 11d 23h 50m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 55m 47s and 14d 15h 2m 36s

We stand a shot at dropping under 120t diff.
The diff trend line is down from nov 2025 to July 2026

Isn't the mandatory signaling of BIP 110 supposed to start for the beginning of the next difficulty period, so then during the next difficulty period there would be a figuring out if signaling for BIP 110 ends up taking place by the end of the difficulty period... The drama period is getting closer and closer.. .whether signaling for BIP 110 will be DOA or not... For many, it seems like a coop attempt that has been done (designed) in a coercive kind of a way.

another shitty price day as the summer drags on.

Recently I thought that you were happy that the BTC price was no longer in the upper $50ks, and so bouncing around $63k does not seem bad, even though there is not much of a price cushion between current bitcoin prices and our current local bottom of $57,735 from June 30th (or was it July 1?)... Depends on time zone.. UTC it was July 1, right?

[edited out]
That is definitely a shitty way to find out someone you have followed for decades has passed on.  I'm sure that qualifies as a relationship and tears are justified and I would feel the same if I found out someone I "knew" from this forum passed away even though we only have this connection through a keyboard...  I didn't really follow Dvorak, but his face definitely looks familiar from some old tech articles or magazines I've seen over the years. RIP

Quite a few forum members just stop posting, and reasonable inferences are that they passed on, even though every once in a while they surprisingly show up again.

Shit happens, and sometimes guys might not want to mention some of their own meat space (meat wagon) challenges.
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July 29, 2026, 10:56:52 AM
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I thought BobClawblaw was going to defend us against ChartBuddy takeovers?
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July 29, 2026, 12:48:15 PM
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I thought BobClawblaw was going to defend us against ChartBuddy takeovers?

My bad. Broken since July 21st evidently.

Fixed now.

Also major work yesterday on the news pipeline. Fixed more issues overnight and looking to see what the 9am report produces.
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July 29, 2026, 01:01:54 PM

I thought BobClawblaw was going to defend us against ChartBuddy takeovers?

My bad. Broken since July 21st evidently.

Fixed now.

Also major work yesterday on the news pipeline. Fixed more issues overnight and looking to see what the 9am report produces.

hmm
it is 901 am and he is a bit late.⏰
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buddy you are sandwiched
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July 29, 2026, 01:04:20 PM

it is 901 am and he is a bit late.⏰

We are set to CST. Script takes a couple-few minutes to run.
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I thought BobClawblaw was going to defend us against ChartBuddy takeovers?

It have a check “if BTC < 65k” then “go to sleep, don’t touch anything”
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July 29, 2026, 01:50:40 PM
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We are all getting tired of this price behavior, we are stuck in this range for so long right now, it piss me off.

I still remember when i made this contests(BEAT TRUMPBEAT THE CONCLAVE), which were about predictying the BTC price and damn even the most bearish guy was not close to what we have right now.

I know both of them were not for this year, but come on we were not expected this price behavior at all.

We need to clean from the horizon some clouds, and that clouds are for me:

1- USA mid terms.

2- Iran War or middle east problems.

3- IA problems (from budget to shortages of RAM and chips).

4- Stop silly policies each day from USA.

After it i think we can have a real chance to start a "bull" run.



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BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-29 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-29 09:02 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher by 2.3% over the past 24 hours, but the Fear & Greed Index at 29 (Fear) for seven straight days tells the real story: this is a nervous bounce, not a recovery. The dominant narrative is the $526 million in ETF outflows over four consecutive sessions, which has kept sentiment pinned in the red despite the short-term price uptick.

Outlook: The Fed's Wednesday decision is the next catalyst, though analysts note bitcoin's correlation with equities has weakened, so a dovish surprise could boost crypto more than stocks. Watch for any shift in ETF flow direction-if outflows persist, the 30-day moving average near $63,600 could be tested again.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,467.00 (+2.31%).

Bitcoin is at $64,467.00, up 2.31% over 24 hours and down 2.3% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +2 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. The market remains in a tug-of-war. The +2 composite suggests spot buyers are absorbing selling pressure, yet the weekly -2.3% decline shows sellers still dictate the near-term trend. Holding $63,000 support is critical; a daily close below that level would confirm bearish control and open the path to $61,500. A reclaim of $66,000 resistance would flip control to buyers, targeting $67,500. Until one side decisively breaks, the tape reads as a cautious consolidation with a slight bearish lean.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $63,000 (45%): triggers: Bitcoin holds daily closes above $63,000 through Friday, with Fear & Greed staying below 35. Invalidation: a daily close below $63,000 within five trading days.
- Upside Reclaim of $66,000 (29%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims and holds a daily close above $66,000 within five trading days, with Fear & Greed rising above 35. Invalidation: failure to close above $66,000 within five trading days, or a daily close below $63,000.
- Downside Re-test of $61,500 (26%): triggers: Bitcoin loses $63,000 with a daily close below that level within five trading days, and Fear & Greed stays at or below 29. Invalidation: a daily close back above $63,000 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed Decision: The Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting carries a 70% probability of no rate change, but any dovish tone could amplify bitcoin's outperformance given its weakened correlation with equities.

- Mining Sector Pivot: Core Scientific's 15-year AI deal with AMD highlights a structural shift in the mining industry, as firms diversify away from bitcoin mining revenue amid falling hashprice and difficulty adjustments.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflows as BTC Falls Below $65K
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-extend-outflow-streak-btc-slips-below-65k
Published: 2026-07-29
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive sessions of outflows totaling $526 million. The largest withdrawals occurred on July 24 and July 23, at about $240 million and $225 million, respectively. Cumulative net inflows remained at $51.3 billion, with total net assets at $77.2 billion as of July 28. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin's return to a bullish trend would require renewed demand and improving market conditions. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $63,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since July 17, before trading at $64,371 at the time of publication.

2. Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin Protocol Changes Should Be 'Rare,' Not Serve Any Faction's 'Convenience' Amid BIP-110 Debate
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-protocol-101437432.html
Published: 2026-07-29 06:14 AM CT
Summary: Strategy Inc. founder Michael Saylor argued that Bitcoin's greatest threat is internal corruption of its consensus rules, not external attack. He criticized proposals like BIP-110 for censoring fee-paying transactions and said they attack the economic rights of current and future participants. Saylor insisted the base layer must remain simple, neutral, scarce, and secure, with upgrades only when truly necessary. Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, shared Saylor's concerns and said BIP-110 would set an irreversible precedent that threatens the 21 million coin cap. Veteran trader Fred Krueger remains a major advocate for BIP-110 and mocked Saylor's opposition as AI-generated.

3. Strategy director sells MSTR shares ahead of Q2 earnings
URL: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-director-sells-shares-ahead-123000217.html
Published: 2026-07-29 03:30 AM CT
Summary: Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases or sales for the fifth consecutive week, according to its July 27 SEC filing. The company holds 843,775 BTC, representing over 4% of Bitcoin's total supply cap, though it carries a multibillion-dollar paper loss on that position. During July 20-26, Strategy sold $544.5 million in MSTR shares, bought back $25 million in SRTC shares, and raised its cash reserve by $525 million to $3.75 billion. Director Jarrod Patten sold 1,250 MSTR shares worth $125,000 on July 22 after exercising a stock option, a routine insider transaction he has performed before. The company is set to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 30.

4. Fed meeting could matter more for the Nasdaq than bitcoin, analysts say
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/28/remotely-dovish-fed-could-be-good-for-bitcoin-says-analyst
Published: 2026-07-28
Summary: Bitcoin has held steady above $63,000 and is up about 6% for July, while AI-linked tech and semiconductor stocks have slumped. Markets are split ahead of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday decision, with a 70% probability of no rate change and a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Analysts at Block Scholes and K33 Research note that bitcoin's correlation with equities has weakened, suggesting the Fed meeting may have a smaller impact on crypto than on traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced this month, with the S&P 500 little changed and a basket of semiconductor stocks down nearly 20%. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman said anything remotely dovish from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could lead to bitcoin's outperformance continuing.

5. Core Scientific lands AMD AI deal as bitcoin mining operation winds down
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/28/core-scientific-lands-amd-ai-deal-as-bitcoin-mining-operation-winds-down
Published: 2026-07-28
Summary: Core Scientific signed a 15-year, 529 MW infrastructure partnership with AMD for AI capacity, potentially generating over $14 billion in base contracted revenue. AMD has rights to reserve up to 1.9 GW of additional capacity through 2028, expanding the total to 2.5 GW. The deal accelerates Core Scientific's pivot from bitcoin mining toward AI data centers, following the termination of its ASIC agreement with Block. Self-mining revenue fell 66% to $21.5 million in Q2, while colocation revenue made up 83% of total revenue. Core Scientific held 848 BTC worth $49.7 million as of June 30, up from 547 BTC three months earlier.

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