Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[philipma1957]

I see on the news that Spain is getting invaded by tens of thousands of Morocco migrants breaking through the border. 98% of the migrants are men with no shirt on their back and no clothing or money. It's reported that many are already breaking into homes and businesses in Spain's Ceuta Territory.  The border has totally collapsed.

Trump warned Europe about open borders and Spain is said to have officially welcomed anyone and even offering free living standards for everyone!    

Open borders with free and unchecked travel.

SO I leave my house doors open you can come in eat my food fuck me my wife and the kids.

That is the full realization of open borders.

Or what's yours is mine and what's mine is yours.


Systems like that don't work.

never did and never will.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[xhomerx10]

Well, this is extremely off-topic, but... I kind of like two of you. Maybe three...  So I'm going to share my strangely stronger grief than I would have expected in mentioning that.... A podcaster and computer columnist that I have known of and followed to some extent for most of my adult life passed away this last week, John C. Dvorak. I've mentioned his and Adam Curry's (one of the original MTV DJs and a brilliant and quirky man) podcast "No Agenda" a few times on this site.  It's actually a really good podcast and possibly the oldest one running as Curry is said to have invented podcasting and John was right there with him from early on.

Anyway, I decided today to listen to the first hour before I start doing some work on a camper roof that's busted and the show has a iconic, well-produced, glitzy intro over which Curry does most of the announcery kind of talking and then dvorak comes in after and wraps it up and the show number was spoken and then the talking just stopped in the intro music kept going and I knew it immediately. This is it.  John fucking died.

I actually wept a little.

Anyway, I need to say something on topic, so number go up or something.

 That is definitely a shitty way to find out someone you have followed for decades has passed on.  I'm sure that qualifies as a relationship and tears are justified and I would feel the same if I found out someone I "knew" from this forum passed away even though we only have this connection through a keyboard...  I didn't really follow Dvorak, but his face definitely looks familiar from some old tech articles or magazines I've seen over the years. RIP

I think you would love the podcast knowing what I do about you.

I honestly wonder how Curry is going to continue it because I don't think he can do it on his own. The podcast was the two of them.

 Thanks!  I'll have a listen for sure.

 Me likey!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Biodom]

OT first:

Full length Elon interview with the Economist:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuoqKYxDHVc

In raw form, it is quite different from what I first read about it elsewhere.
Clearly, we live in a turbulent times...as we probably approaching singularity in some form: a literal "winds of change".

Elon thinks that the world would drastically change in the next 5-10 years.
Sometimes, I look around and just don't see it...same rivers, rocks, woods, but the other times, I read about advanced LLM capabilities and wonder where we would end up with as far as jobs/occupations/etc.
Maybe we would be like human chess players...clearly inferior, but still competing among each other for fun, I guess.
We can also do emotions, relationships, art, etc, right?
Maybe write each other postcards .

Also OT: I am largely staying away from any new stock investments because individual stocks are doing crazy stuff rn...for example, one biotech (no investment there) with a very successful and growing drug had a slight (5%) revision in earnings-stock drops almost 30% a day bringing it back to the 2022 level. What gives?
Money managers are becoming overtaken by emotions and are doing clearly stupid things..like lemmings they almost all are.

Not OT: I like the relative stability in bitcoin currently...would be content if we finish the year between 65 and 75K (hopefully closer to 75, though)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

Imagine that! Spain gives over a million illegal migrants legal status and suddenly a million more show up expecting the same treatment... the nerve of those new illegals trying to get the same deal as the old illegals!

yup. take it from us here in the USA: we original american colonists stole the land fair and square from native american indians. done deal. so all these modern immigrants.. sorry no more land to steal.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[xhomerx10]

Imagine that! Spain gives over a million illegal migrants legal status and suddenly a million more show up expecting the same treatment... the nerve of those new illegals trying to get the same deal as the old illegals!

yup. take it from us here in the USA: we original american colonists stole the land fair and square from native american indians. done deal. so all these modern immigrants.. sorry no more land to steal.

 Ha ha! If that's the Moroccans' modern-day plan I would assume Spanish bombs will be falling on Moroccan military bases any minute now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

Samsung is not only the big tech we know but also ones of the top developers of new RAM battiling against Micron and others to see if they can get a new type of RAM who serves to all this IA boom, if they start to have problem is gonna be not only a problem for them but for everyone else.

I'm wondering what happened to Samsung's EUV process plans, its been years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-30 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-07-30 09:06 PM CT

Thursday's session is flat, with Bitcoin holding near $64,500 after a brief surge past $65,000 following the Fed's rate hold, but the Fear & Greed Index at 25 (Extreme Fear) tells the real story - sentiment is deteriorating, and the market is grinding sideways rather than recovering.

Outlook: The next catalyst is whether inflation data, like the PCE print that came in as expected, can shift the macro narrative enough to break Bitcoin out of its range. Watch for any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, as crude oil above $90 could force the Fed's hand and pressure risk assets further.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $64,520.00, up 0.48% over 24 hours and down 0.9% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers appear to be in control near-term, with the price hovering below resistance at $65,500 and the Fear & Greed index at 25 (Extreme Fear). A sustained hold above support at $63,500 would suggest the downside is limited, while a break below that level could accelerate selling toward the downside target at $62,500. Reclaiming $65,500 would flip control back to buyers and open the path to the upside target at $66,500.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $63,500 (49%): triggers: Bitcoin holds above $63,500 through Friday, with daily closes remaining above that level. Invalidation: A daily close below $63,500 within the same window.
- Upside Reclaim of $65,500 (39%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims $65,500 as support through Friday, with a daily close above that level. Invalidation: A daily close below $65,500 within the same window.
- Downside Re-test of $62,500 (12%): triggers: Bitcoin loses $63,500 on a daily close through Friday, targeting $62,500. Invalidation: A daily close back above $63,500 within the same window.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Geopolitical risk: U.S.-Iran tensions and crude oil above $90 per barrel could push the Fed to raise rates, creating a headwind for Bitcoin that the market is not yet pricing in.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Reclaims $65K as July Gains Top 10% After Fed Pause
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-reclaims-65k-as-july-gains-top-10-after-fed-pause
Published: 2026-07-30
Summary: Bitcoin briefly surged past $65,000 to a daily peak of $65,100 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, then settled near $64,700. The asset's market cap reached $1.3 trillion, positioning it for a monthly gain exceeding 10% in July. Volatility triggered over $243 million in position liquidations across the broader crypto market, with long liquidations totaling over $143 million. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and crude oil above $90 per barrel could push the Fed to raise rates, presenting a headwind for risk assets like bitcoin. The core PCE price index moderated to 3.3% year-over-year, aligning with expectations, but further disinflationary progress remains constrained by geopolitical risks.

2. Bitcoin Joins Risk-Asset Relief As PCE Inflation Follows Expectations
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-crypto-stable-as-us-pce-inflation-sees-first-monthly-drop-in-six-years
Published: 2026-07-30
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $64,500 on Thursday, broadly unchanged from the prior day, as US stocks rebounded. The June PCE index came in at 3.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and ending an uptrend that saw May's reading hit 4.1%. The Kobeissi Letter noted that the 3.7% figure was still the second-highest result since October 2024 and nearly double the Fed's 2% target. Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke described inflation as "the genie the Fed just can't put back in the bottle." Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan forecast that future interest-rate announcements would have less impact on Bitcoin price performance, citing expectations of more modest rate changes ahead. Analysts are divided on near-term direction, with technical and on-chain signals pointing in different directions.

3. Ray Dalio Still Holds Bitcoin
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/ray-dalio-prefers-gold-over-bitcoin
Published: 2026-07-30
Summary: Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, said on a podcast that Bitcoin makes up only 1% of his portfolio. He prefers gold over Bitcoin, calling it a better investment. Dalio noted that Bitcoin can be monitored by governments and taxed, and that quantum computing could threaten it. He also said governments have the power to crack down on Bitcoin, and central banks will not hold significant amounts. Despite Dalio's caution, Bitcoin has gained acceptance among traditional investors like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

4. Bitcoin ETFs On Pace For Smallest Monthly Inflows Ever
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etfs-pace-smallest-monthly-131400892.html
Published: 2026-07-30 09:14 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their smallest monthly inflows ever in July, with only $205 million in net inflows so far. This follows two months of net outflows: $2.43 billion in May and $4.52 billion in June. Ethereum ETFs performed slightly better, attracting $342.85 million in net inflows during July. Analysts say the data indicates limited demand for crypto ETFs among institutional investors. Volatility remains high, and Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have failed to sustain meaningful recoveries from their yearly lows.

5. Bitcoin's Final Bear Leg: History Says $35,000, On-Chain Data Disagrees
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-final-bear-leg-history-180000884.html
Published: 2026-07-30 02:00 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $64,000, roughly 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,000. Analyst CryptoCon mapped past bear markets and projects a 26% drop to roughly $46,000 by October, with a possible second leg to $35,000 by early 2027. On-chain data shows the ratio between short-term and long-term holder cost bases has not yet compressed to one, a level that marked every prior generational bottom. Glassnode's Long-Term Holder Market Inflation Rate has stayed negative through most of 2026, indicating patient investors absorb more coins than miners create, though the current reading is milder than past capitulation troughs. The Bitcoin Price Temperature oscillator reads near zero, a zone where every prior cycle bottom formed, suggesting Bitcoin already trades at bottom-grade valuations.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.2 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[cAPSLOCK]

SUPER IMPORTANT SECURITY ALERT

If you have used a ColdCard to produce private keys you ought to move your funds to new secure keys (perhaps produced by using dice or coins) as soon as possible!

https://blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/

Attackers have already moved 600 coins.

Personally I'd move coins nomatter the hw/sw versions if you used a coldcard to make keys.

@bobclawblaw perhaps a topic to consider is this exploit!


This might kill CoinKite.

[heslo]

SUPER IMPORTANT SECURITY ALERT

If you have used a ColdCard to produce private keys you ought to move your funds to new secure keys (perhaps produced by using dice or coins) as soon as possible!

https://blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/

Attackers have already moved 600 coins.

Personally I'd move coins nomatter the hw/sw versions if you used a coldcard to make keys.

@bobclawblaw perhaps a topic to consider is this exploit!


This might kill CoinKite.

What a fuckin disaster. Never used Coincard myself, always a Trezor user from day one but sorry for anyone that got fucked over by this!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[nutildah]

https://blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/

Attackers have already moved 600 coins.
...
This might kill CoinKite.

I didn't mention it here because its not super relevant, but I was the victim of a zero-day exploit recently in which 750+ old Dogecoin addresses were drained of their contents.

Not only did I lose my DOGE stash, I no longer have my collection of imaginary Dogecoin tokens either. The asshole took those too. It was 11+ years in the making.

Its on me for never moving anything for 11 years and never even thinking to move it... But I have to wonder how much of the crypto industry is gonna fall apart because of AI in the future.


Its been a rough few months. But rather than sitting around feeling sorry for myself, I started learning more about the basics of programming and built some things to help attract opportunities in the near future. I can't let myself be defeated by this or my brand defined by this.