Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.
Just went out in my bathrobe and filmed it lol.

Make sure to offer it some tea next time. 
Nothing says backyard hospitality like a bathrobe and a bear.

[Danish Ali]

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.
Just went out in my bathrobe and filmed it lol.

Make sure to offer it some tea next time.  
Nothing says backyard hospitality like a bathrobe and a bear.

Green cap is a nice touch.

Looks like bear is waiting for the next candle to turn green too.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.
Just went out in my bathrobe and filmed it lol.

Make sure to offer it some tea next time.  
Nothing says backyard hospitality like a bathrobe and a bear.

Green cap is a nice touch.

That black bear is a WOer, hence the cap.

[Danish Ali]

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.
Just went out in my bathrobe and filmed it lol.

Make sure to offer it some tea next time.  
Nothing says backyard hospitality like a bathrobe and a bear.

Green cap is a nice touch.

That black bear is a WOer, hence the cap.

Hence the staring at the table.

Probably waiting for the next ChartBuddy update.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-13 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-13 09:05 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways as a six-year dormant whale moved $377.6 million in coins, the latest old stash to shake loose after last week's 4,500 BTC transfer. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 62 in Greed for a seventh straight day, but the 7-day gain of just 0.1% shows the greed is not translating into follow-through. Price is holding above the 30-day average of $82,873, and the 30-day gain of 6.6% keeps the larger uptrend intact.

Outlook: Wednesday's CPI report is the next test, with traders on Myriad giving 54% odds that Bitcoin falls to $80,000 before it reaches $87,500. Watch whether the exchange supply squeeze builds, since Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to 2.67 million from 2.8 million since February and could set up a supply-demand imbalance if buying demand improves.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $83,301.00, up 1.14% over 24 hours and up 0.1% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +0 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers and sellers are still fighting over the same patch of ground, and neither side has landed a clean blow. Price sits between support $82,000 and resistance $85,000, and the 30-day gain of 6.6% suggests dip buyers have been willing to defend the lower bound so far. Sentiment at 62 on the Fear & Greed Index leans greedy, which often means latecomers are chasing rather than smart money accumulating. A daily close below $82,000 would hand sellers control, while a push through $85,000 would confirm buyers have enough fuel to test $86,000. Until one of those breaks, chop remains the default trade.

SCENARIOS

- Grinding Range Between $82,000 and $85,000 (56%): triggers: Bitcoin holds above $82,000 on a daily close within five trading days while greedy sentiment at 62 keeps pullbacks shallow and buyers continue defending the lower bound. Invalidation: a daily close below $82,000 within five trading days, or a push through $85,000 that forces this range scenario to hand off to the upside case.
- Push Through $85,000 Toward $86,000 (21%): triggers: buyers reclaim $85,000 on a daily close within five trading days, backed by Fear & Greed holding above 60, and extend toward $86,000. Invalidation: buyers fail at $85,000 and price retreats below $82,000 within five trading days, or sellers defend $85,000 so decisively that price slides back under $83,000.
- Downside Break Below $82,000 Toward $80,500 (23%): triggers: sellers drive a daily close below $82,000 within five trading days, erasing the 30-day gains and opening a re-test of $80,500. Invalidation: buyers defend $82,000 and price closes back above $83,000 within five trading days, or a quick reclaim that keeps the range intact.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- ETF outflows: Funds sold actual Bitcoin after recording net outflows of $386.3 million in October, adding supply pressure beneath the price.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin whale moves $378 million in BTC after six years of dormancy
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-13-bitcoin-whale-moves-378-million-418383
Published: 2026-10-12 11:17 PM CT
Summary: A bitcoin whale moved 4,582 BTC worth $377.6 million on Monday after remaining dormant for over six years, according to Lookonchain citing Arkham data. The wallet transferred the funds to five addresses, and the coins remain in the recipient addresses. The wallet originally received the BTC in March 2020, when the holdings were worth about $40.8 million. Last week, another whale moved 4,500 BTC worth $375.7 million to an address after more than four years of inactivity. Bitcoin fell 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $83,245 after briefly dropping to a local low of around $81,220, and QCP Capital forecasts bitcoin will trade between $80,000 and $90,000 in its base case for the fourth quarter.

2. The Amount of Bitcoin on Exchanges Is Shrinking. Is a Rally Imminent?
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/amount-of-bitcoin-exchanges-is-shrinking
Published: 2026-10-13
Summary: Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to 2.67 million from 2.8 million since February, according to a CryptoQuant report. The researcher argued that falling exchange supply could create a supply-demand imbalance if buying demand improves, setting up favorable conditions for a longer-term upward trend. Bitcoin traded at $83,485, flat over 24 hours but up 8% over the past 30 days after its best quarter in years. The coin spent most of 2026 under $65,000 following the all-time high of $126,080 hit in October 2025, before rallying in August after the U.S. Treasury said it would double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. Analysts say the debasement trade, where investors buy assets to hedge against a weakening dollar, is hot again and benefiting bitcoin.

3. Bitcoin reclaims golden zone after dipping to $80,953
URL: https://decrypt.co/380842/bitcoin-shakes-off-spooky-season-jitters
Published: 2026-10-13 11:46 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin slid to $80,953.41 early Tuesday, then reversed to trade up 2.24% at $83,591.79. The bounce stopped about $588 above the $80,365.12 swing low, forming a higher low that traders read as bullish. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $386.3 million in October, forcing funds to sell actual Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a neutral 56, down from an extreme greed reading of 82 on Aug. 26. Traders on Myriad give 54% odds that Bitcoin falls to $80,000 this month and 45% odds it reaches $87,500, with Wednesday's CPI report the next test.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[xhomerx10]

I believe this is about diplomacy rather than political theater.  You don't wish Putin a "Happy Birthday" and expect to gain popularity for the upcoming US elections.  Trump has already forcefully asked Zelensky to stop destroying oil refining capacity in Russia because it has seriously affected the price of diesel world-wide.  Zelensky and the media can easily point and say, "Look it's the Iran conflict!" which purposely ignores a couple of realities; the Nord Stream disaster which has caused untold financial damage to Ukraine's European allies, the very countries Ukraine relies on for financial and military assistance, and forced them to seek other, more expensive supplies of energy.  Secondly,  the destruction of Russian refineries is responsible for a diesel prices increased of 60-65% - because Russia was supplying Turkey, Brazil and North Africa with refined diesel and now those countries are forced to find alternative sources.  The loss of ~50% of Russian refining capacity has had a greater effect on diesel prices than a lack of crude oil shipments through Hormuz.  Crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  So, while it may seem like a drop in the bucket in absolute math, it is a bargaining tool that shows someone in a position of immense power is willing to trade some sanctions relief for a much-needed ceasefire... and a little bit of leverage can get you the rest of the bucket.  The USA doesn't even need to import diesel as they refine more than enough at home but since its price is driven by a global market, domestic producers can demand global prices at home.  If you also consider that 15-20% of the current diesel price is speculative, this gesture might be enough to give some needed relief to Americans.

Sorry, this doesn't stand against some fact checking.
The most recent significant Diesel price surge happend within two weeks after the start of the Iran war, which was on the 28th of Feb, while Ukraine significantly intensified their attacks against refineries around the mid of June. Mid July the Houthis chimed in to attack Saudi tankers. This is the timeframe when Diesel price was on the rise again, after decreasing slowly in May, while Ukraine broadly intensified their attacks against refineries in June, with the most devastating hits in August and September.
The price was rising around 2x-3x more at times of Iran-related war events compared to Russia war events in the "refinery department".

How do you explain that?
I see much stronger correlations regarding events of the useless war against Iran, while Trump promised to not get into another useless war.
The US needs some more torches and pitchforks, and the Ukraine needs more support!

OT:
After UAF took out major datacenters in Russia, on many forums and social media platforms the posting of content against UA, or supporting AfD, FPOE and other european right-wing parties effectively vanished (or suddenly started to post texts in russian letters). Better statistics need more time and data, but it seems the global russian troll army wasn't a myth at all. They effectively also helped with the win of Trump in the elections, despite this has already been highlighted in various studies.
The american voter became a sock puppet of Putin, and he is starting to grasp this. Note that i didn't accuse Trump of corruption and lying to the people. Because i don't need to. People are not as dumb as Donald ans his frens believe.

 Well, I believe you're tracking short-term timeline spikes from crude oil panic, but like I said before: crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  My point was entirely about the permanent, structural deficit in global refined diesel capacity after the Russian refinery destruction and the countries who now have to chase after new sources for diesel.  While related in theory, they are two completely different economic mechanisms.  You can pump and ship all the crude oil you want but if you can't refine it, you haven't imcreased the supply of the required products.

Nope, i was looking into diesel prices. Hyperfocusing on our little dispute (don't take it personally, it's only ment factually), i started researching into the diesel economy and Russia's export ban got a little more weight in the metrics, but overall the data was showing more gravity towards the Iran war.
Diesel export decreased from 2024, not much reaction in price. But before i lose myself in countless arguments, because i was looking through a bunch of charts and tried to reconstruct connections, i am not confident enough to get this into a few points which are easy to follow.

So, for validation i tried to make sure i'm not too biased when researching, i hit the AI button to validate:

Yes, it is partially true, but Russia’s export shortage is only one piece of a much larger global diesel crisis.
While the loss of Russian supply heavily penalized international markets, the primary driver behind the massive spike in global diesel prices is actually the U.S.-Iran war and the severe disruption of the Middle East fuel supply.

1. The Role of the Russian Shortage

Before implementing severe curbs, Russia was the world's second-largest diesel exporter.
• Refinery Attacks: Intensive Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out millions of barrels of Russian refining capacity, forcing Moscow to prioritize its domestic market.
• The Export Ban: To stabilize local fuel needs, Russia enacted a strict export ban, taking roughly 600,000 to 700,000 barrels per day off the global market. This supply vacuum heavily tightened inventories across Europe, Latin America, and Africa, forcing international prices upward.

2. The Main Trigger: The Middle East Crisis

While the loss of Russian barrels hurt, the U.S.-Iran war caused far more severe blockades.
• Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Frequent drone and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz choked off major shipping lanes.
• Massive Deficit: Middle Eastern diesel exports collapsed from roughly 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to just 670,000 barrels per day. This massive disruption represents a deficit far larger than the Russian shortage.

  Promise I don't take this personally - these are simply my opinions and I have been known to have been incorrect in the past on occasion.

Gemini: You have failed to grasp the essence of my argument.  The first 700,000 barrels of diesel are not equal to the second 700,000 barrels of diesel in terms of cost.  In a structural bottleneck, adding equal amounts of deficit results in vastly unequal amounts of financial/economic damage.  The destruction by Ukraine of Russia's dual-use assets (which is fair in war) has acted on an already broken system.

 Another issue is that you don't just refine diesel from crude oil - you distill other products at the same time.  You can't just distill more diesel as required because you can't simply turn off the gasoline taps - once the tanks are full, you have to go on total reflux and end up selling the other products at bargain prices so you can continue distillation.  We were already there before Ukraine began destroyed 50% of the Russian refining capacity over this summer.   I would also like to point out that Trump wasn't the first president of the USA to ask Zelensky to stop doing it.  The first attacks were more of a nuisance and Russia was able to bring much of their capacity online again fairly quickly but the drone tech has improved immensely and the latest attacks have reached deepest into the country and been the most devastating.  I've probably already used up all of my goodwill in this particular part of the forum with my incessant politicking so I'm not sure I should get into a debate about what a "useless" war would look like.  Ensuring yet another madman doesn't attain nuclear capability doesn't seem a likely candidate though imo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

.....if anyone blame that I use AI so every time I reject it because I dont use it [in bed].

That's what she said.

Hahaha. Keep reaching for the low hanging fruit.

You must be new here (and don't understand these here parts).
 

Age before beauty, they say.

Who is "they?"

Anyone we know?

Is is royal or regular?

In udder wurdz, you seem like a lazy mo fo, vapourminer, [...]

"seems"
wtf
apparently ive been too energetic lately

In the years that "we" have been batting 'round ideas (if they could be labelled as such?), have you ever witnessed this here cat make any proclamation with any semblance of certainty?

If Satoshi Nakamoto were alive and he opened his BTC account, he would die of a stroke upon seeing his wealth.
Is he even alive ?

No

I thought he died in a boating accident.

Hahahaha

And his paper wallet got wet.  Some of the ole timers can relate to those kinds of unfortunate circumstances.

[edited out]

It's those damn Orcas I tell yah!

Whoa!!!  za!!!!

If they got his private keys, then we cannot rest with confidence that those coins are "off of the market."

Orcas probably could properly read wet paper wallets.

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.

i pretty much lose one birdfeeder setup a year to bears on average. they just bend the pole over and casually open the individual feeders like it had the instructions to them. and then leave the bent up (and now useless) poles and arms.

That does not seem to be a good sign for dee corn markets.

 

Not that I am superstitious.

[xhomerx10]

I'm trying to understand what's in the mind of a man who calls Putler, wishes him a happy birthday, literally gets down on his knees and begs for diesel - and this criminal in two days kills more than 50 civilians in Ukraine with slide bombs... Actually, I know the answer and the real question is how low can someone in such a high position go to preserve their political and business position?

 The immediate need to reduce energy costs for the American people? (in a way, it also decreases available energy for the Russian military so there's that angle which makes the image you included even more apropos)
I find it strange that the Europeans who have failed to protect their own internal borders from a global irregular migrant invasion talk about the Ukraine borders as if they are fixed and non-negotiable.  This is a glaring double standard which I suppose is masked only by their hatred for Putin.  Sure, it's easy for me to sit on the other side of Atlantic and criticize but if the US were the only one asking for Russian energy, that would be one thing; Europe is still sucking it up in record amounts - the numbers don't lie. Maybe there is a triple standard in play?  Ideologies are great but generally superseded by realities - you can't outwardly say, "FUCK YOU PUTIN!" and then write checks to him for the energy you desperately need. (Yeah, you can but it's not a great look)  We've probably reached "peak" easy answers to our current problems and we're at the point where every single solution is going be painful.  The Eurocrats are likely working on some wordy, suffocating legislation to fix everything and we should expect to see that in 2032.  Maybe they'll present it to Putin as an 80th birthday surprise.

It's no secret that Trumpy doesn't want to stay without the votes of farmers in some federal states where his party is in the majority, and who have been suffering because of fuel prices lately - but it's bloody fuel no matter from which angle you look at the situation. Don't be naive and think that this will mean less fuel for the Russian army, they are a priority in this matter - it will mean less fuel for the average Russian who wastes hours waiting in lines in front of gas stations.

When you talk about migrants in the EU, you should know that what happened ten years ago is no longer the case - the EU then yielded to the pressure due to the attitude of Germany, which thought to solve the problem of its workforce with these migrants, but today the external borders of the EU are very well protected - I know this because I live in a country that is on the external border of the Schengen Area.

The number of illegal entries has decreased by at least 60%, and everyone who comes legally from outside the EU must go through a registration process that includes providing biometric data.

Yes, maybe it's easy for you to talk about changing the borders, like most US politicians - but for us who live in the immediate vicinity of the barbarians from the east (we call them orcs), it doesn't matter at all what could happen if Russia succeeds in its plan. It's even worse when we see that our greatest ally is stabbing us in the back for a little fuel - I think Roosevelt is turning in his grave at this kind of news, because what would the world be like today if he had colluded with the Nazis instead of wiping them off the face of the earth.

  Believe you me, I am following the EU migrant crisis and that's why I used the present perfect tense "have failed to protect" because while it started 10 years ago, it is still ongoing even if the borders are only 50% porous today.  Even if they were permanently repaired by the October 2026 legislation, it is still a decade long hypocrisy and now that issue has negatively affected the Schengen zone of free travel for actual European citizens as a few countries have returned to "show us your papers" - I'm referring to Germany (where it all began thanks to Angela Merkel) but there are others.  The problem is still actively fracturing Europe and when you see the dissension over the latest Spanish shenanigans... if you add in those 1.2 million irregular migrants given EU citizenship by Royal Decree, you might be right back up to 100% porous again.  Europe had not yet achieved sovereignty over its borders.  At least, they aren't fooling me - for whatever that's worth.

 America isn't stabbing you in the back for a little fuel.  Ukraine and the West have a mutual enemy and this is the basis for a strategic partnership but it was never meant as an absolute where one does whatever the other desires - they don't have exactly the same goals.  You know Roosevelt made deals with that Stalin monster, right?  This is how the Soviets got a permanent seat and veto power on the UN Security Council and we were collectively able to disarm the Nazis.

The EU has a problem with a chronic labor shortage, that's why 10+ years ago they decided to practically let millions of refugees from Syria, thinking that they were showing humanity and at the same time helping their economies. Unfortunately, a very small percentage of these people integrated into society, the majority did not want to work, and Germany calculated that about 10% of them are possibly dangerous and connected to terrorists or are just ordinary criminals.

That's why today we have the AfD, which recently achieved a historic victory in one province, and according to polls, they are not doing badly in some of the next elections either. The situation is not much different in other countries either, so regardless of the outside view, the borders of the EU are much better protected than before - although it would be stupid to say that they are protected the way they should be. Schengen brought freedom of movement within that area, but it also made it possible for those who entered it illegally to stay there very easily.

That is why the focus of defense against illegal entry to the eastern borders is in the countries that are under the greatest pressure, primarily Greece, Croatia and Italy, but of course also Spain and France. The problem is that countries like Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina do not have a visa regime for the countries from which illegal migrants come, and smuggling routes actually start from these countries. Cooperation with these countries on this issue is practically non-existent.

As for the fact that the US did not stab the EU in the back, I would not agree that this has not been the case since Trumpy came to power. The US promised to defend Ukraine and its sovereignty if it hands over nuclear weapons, and today, in the midst of a bloody war of aggression, we have a case where the US buys fuel from Russia and thus helps the Russian war machine. It should be said that some EU countries still cooperate with Russia when it comes to energy, but the EU has never been united on this issue.

I read today that phone calls are coming from the US to all important EU members regarding pressure on Kiev to stop targeting Russian refineries, and Ukraine is being threatened with the cancellation of intelligence data if it does not do so. President Zelenskyy has already confirmed that they no longer receive warnings about the firing of ballistic missiles from Russia, which has led to enormous destruction and human casualties.

As I already wrote, it's a bloody diesel no matter how anyone presents it.

 I think most of those points were your opinion and not factually based... the chronic labour shortage was never a consideration when the masses first arrived - it was purely humanitarian and the Syrians were only supposed to be there temporarily but then surprise, surprise! Only 30% of the unmanaged humanitarian wave were Syrian.  Few could speak German let alone had the skills to work in your factories when they arrived.  You were sold a bill of goods after the fact if you believe the "chronic labour" bs.  That could have been solved with your existing immigration laws though they were pretty strict and made it hard for anyone to gain citizenship even if they were schooled there... I might know a guy.

 The US NEVER promised to defend Ukraine and it's sovereignty for the nukes.  You should read the memorandum.  Russia violated it by invading Ukraine while the US did everything they had agreed to (and much, much more!)
 
 The US did violate the memorandum wrt Belarus but who cares right?  It was non-binding anyway. /s  and then Russia rolled some nukes back into Belarusian territory so... might as well tear that one up.

 I believe Zelensky was asked nicely, prodded, demanded and since he persisted, was told "Alrighty then!"   Sure, he is responsible for his countries sovereignty but then Trump and the leaders of Europe are also responsible for theirs and their own national interests.

 To your final point, I agree - It's bloody diesel but it's also the life blood of the global economy.

 I hope I don't come across as being nasty - I had a long day and I'm tired but I do enjoy a good argument.  

[xhomerx10]

Black bear in my backyard, looks like a big fluffy dog.

i pretty much lose one birdfeeder setup a year to bears on average. they just bend the pole over and casually open the individual feeders like it had the instructions to them. and then leave the bent up (and now useless) poles and arms.

 Has he got your newspaper?!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Danish Ali]

.....if anyone blame that I use AI so every time I reject it because I dont use it [in bed].

That's what she said.

Hahaha. Keep reaching for the low hanging fruit.

You must be new here (and don't understand these here parts).
 

Age before beauty, they say.

Who is "they?"

Anyone we know?

Is is royal or regular?

Regular.

Same 'they' who say 'buy the dip'.

Nobody knows who they are, but everyone follows them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

If Satoshi Nakamoto were alive and he opened his BTC account, he would die of a stroke upon seeing his wealth.
Is he even alive ?

No

I thought he died in a boating accident.

It's those damn Orcas I tell yah!

Nope, it's the Dolphins conspiracy. Everybody and their dog thinks Dolphins are sweet and friendly, but they are only pretending!

I don’t know much about Dolphins, but I am familiar with what may be their biggest conspiracy of all time…

Laces out! Finkle is Einhorn! Einhorn is a man!

Die, Dan, Die!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com