Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-25 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-25 09:03 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding lower into a quiet Sunday, down 2.1% over seven days and 4.5% over 30 days, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 54 for a third straight day and drifting 5 points weaker over the past week. The dominant story is not crypto-native: hedge funds hold roughly $2 trillion in cash Treasuries, about 7% of marketable debt, much of it inside basis and swap-spread trades that the Dallas Fed argues could shrink without a crisis, and the article frames a liquidity scramble in that trade as the channel through which Treasury stress would reach Bitcoin. Price sits below the 30-day average of $83,087, so this is a slow bleed rather than a recovery.

Outlook: Watch whether the Treasury basis trade keeps growing or starts unwinding, because the Dallas Fed data already show swap-spread exposure and basis exposure moving in opposite directions, which means the two legs do not liquidate in parallel. On the Bitcoin side, the difficulty adjustment of +4.86% with hashrate near 650 EH/s is the structural item to track, since rising difficulty squeezes hashprice, miners' revenue per unit of hashrate, and that pressure tends to show up in miner selling before it shows up in price. Weekend liquidity is thin, so treat any move today as noise until Monday's volume confirms it.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $80,287.00, down 0.41% over 24 hours and down 2.1% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers hold the near-term initiative, though the pressure is orderly rather than panicked. Price is sitting roughly midway between support at $78,500 and resistance at $82,000, and that band is where the next decision gets made. A loss of $78,500 would open the door to the downside target at $76,500, while a reclaim of $82,000 would put the upside target at $84,000 in play. Sentiment at 54 is neutral, which tells us the crowd is not leaning hard either way, so the tape itself carries the signal. What would flip control is a decisive close outside that band on visible volume, not an intraday wick.

SCENARIOS

- Holding The $78,500 Shelf (45%): triggers: price prints a daily close at or above $78,500 and stays there through Friday, with Fear & Greed holding at or above 50. Invalidation: a daily close below $78,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim Of $82,000 Toward $84,000 (14%): the market needs a fresh catalyst to break the current drift, and the checkable version is a daily close above $82,000 that then holds through Friday, opening the path to $84,000. Invalidation: price closes back below $82,000 within five trading days.
- Slip Below $78,500 Toward $76,500 (41%): with risk-off tone dominant and the 30-day trend still negative, the likelier break is downward; a daily close under $78,500 within five trading days confirms it and targets $76,500. Invalidation: a daily close back above $78,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Treasury basis trade: Hedge funds' $2 trillion Treasury holdings are concentrated in relative-value trades that the Dallas Fed says can be replaced with swap-spread alternatives requiring far fewer bonds, so a shift in that allocation is a macro liquidity driver sitting underneath Bitcoin rather than a crypto story.
- Kraken-Saldo Bank deal: Payward's agreement to buy Saldo Bank would put insured deposits, safeguarded e-money balances and uninsured BTC custody behind one app, a structural change in how crypto customers' cash is legally held rather than a price catalyst.

TOP STORIES

1. Hedge Funds' $2 Trillion Treasury Trade May Shrink Without a Crisis
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/hedge-funds-hold-2-trillion-in-us-debt-but-their-next-trade-could-require-fewer-bonds
Published: 2026-10-25 08:00 AM CT
Summary: Hedge funds held an estimated $2 trillion in cash US Treasuries at the end of 2025, roughly 7% of marketable debt outstanding, according to the Office of Financial Research. Much of that buying sits inside relative-value trades such as the cash-futures basis, which the Federal Reserve estimates grew from $213 billion in January 2023 to $832 billion in September 2025, while swap-spread positions rose from $42 billion to $305 billion. Dallas Fed research published Oct. 16 found that swap-spread alternatives can deliver comparable risk-adjusted returns while requiring far fewer bonds for the same risk budget, so a manager tolerating a $10 million stress loss might hold $1 billion of Treasuries in a basis trade but only $500 million in the substitute. Fed data show the two strategies diverged in April 2025, when estimated swap-spread exposure fell 20% from $295 billion to $237 billion while basis exposure rose from $725 billion to $829 billion, which undercuts the idea that both legs liquidate in parallel. The Dallas Fed researchers also floated a plausible but unquantified channel in which investors get long-duration fixed payments through swaps tied to AI data center financing instead of Treasury futures. Bitcoin traded near $80,330, down 0.47% over 24 hours, and the article frames a liquidity scramble as the path by which Treasury stress could spill into Bitcoin and other assets.

2. Kraken Parent Payward to Buy Saldo Bank, Mixing Deposits and Crypto
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/kraken-wants-to-be-your-bank-but-who-would-protect-your-money
Published: 2026-10-25 03:00 AM CT
Summary: Payward, Kraken's parent company, agreed on Oct. 14 to acquire Saldo Finance Oy, the Finnish owner of Lithuania's Saldo Bank, in a deal expected to close in 2027 if regulators approve it. The purchase would add deposit accounts, lending and payment services to a group known for crypto trading, and Kraken's Bitcoin price feed showed BTC at $80,330.88, down 0.47% over 24 hours. Eligible Saldo deposits would fall under Lithuania's deposit-guarantee scheme, generally capped at 100,000 per depositor per institution, while Kraken's existing EEA electronic-money balances at Payward Ireland Limited are safeguarded rather than insured as bank deposits. Bitcoin held through a custody service carries no deposit insurance against price losses, so a customer's salary, savings and BTC could sit behind one branded app while resting on three different legal arrangements. Saldo Bank's June 2026 filing lists 196.9 million in assets, 169.4 million in retail deposits and a 129.5 million gross credit portfolio, and its audited 2025 accounts show loans at least 90 days overdue rose almost 118%, from 1.615 million to 3.514 million, or 2.84% of gross loans.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OutOfMemory]

Is a new attack on Iran being prepared? US and Israeli military activities point to this, and the US is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East. It seems that the "geniuses" still haven't realized that what they are doing is completely pointless, because attacking a country where women and children tie themselves to bridges and key infrastructure really doesn't make sense.

At the same time, there is supposed to be real panic among business partners of the T-dynasty, given that in the event of a change of power in Congress, many investigations will be opened against them. Various consulting firms and law firms have their hands pants full.

FTFY

How will Bitcoin react if a new wave of attacks on Iran is launched and the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed again?

Bitcoin will probably do good, compared to other stonks and indices related to the war. Oil and oil product prices (Diesel, anyone?) will surge again, while Mr.T. will blame it on Ukraine, which is still fighting to survive the russian terror against civilians and energy infrastructure.
But there's hope: The american voter isn't as dumb as Mr.T. believes, and since the Midterms are a traditional way to punish the government, in case it didn't work in favor of the people. And it didn't do that, for sure. Mr.T. always served himself, his family and his friends, in front of "America first" and "MAGA" banners. Maybe he just forgot to tell the people that "America" represents only a small group of americans?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

No, that's not fireworks.
That's orbital satellites.
A breathtaking pic!

And so it goes up,
And then it goes down again.
Cycles 101!

If death is freedom,
And life is wage-slavery,
Bitcoin fixes both!

1st rule: make a list.
2nd rule: don't shop hungry.
3rd rule: shop with cash.

BobL's been cookin'.
What a time to be alive.
Hope it ain't ramen!

It's not Uptober.
It's not Choptober either.
It's just Yawntober.

Waiting for a dump?
Waiting For The Miracle.
A great Cohen song.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[El duderino_]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

[Danish Ali]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

[El duderino_]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

[Danish Ali]

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

I stand by my haiku. Disputing it requires counter haiku. 

[AlcoHoDL]

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

I stand by my haiku. Disputing it requires counter haiku. 

Listen to The Dude.
Waiting will not make you rich.
Neither will popcorn!

#replyku

[Danish Ali]

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits


Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

I stand by my haiku. Disputing it requires counter haiku. 

Listen to The Dude.
Waiting will not make you rich.
Neither will popcorn!

#replyku

Rich or not, I wait
Dude abides, and so do I
Pass the popcorn, please

#replyku

[Vompola]

Cardone Capital can buy 16 Bitcoins for $12.8 million. These big investors are basically looking for a big opportunity to invest when the price drops. If we take the company's Bitcoin purchases as a percentage of its total assets, we can see that this company has purchased Bitcoins with only 0.024% of its total assets.
Although this investment is small compared to their total assets, they have attracted quite a bit of attention.
source

[fillippone]

Observing 80,550@Stamp

WO Gang!
A new report in my Wall Observer Anthology

2104 in the cards!

Wall Observer Anthology 2014: Falling Prices, Unbroken Conversation

The year in the thread

The Wall Observer's 2014 was a year of falling prices, exchange distrust, and stubborn companionship. January's optimism already faced questions about liquidity, trapped transfers, and the difference between conviction and an inability to sell. February brought Mt. Gox balances, withdrawals, and accountability to the foreground. Anger and uncertainty also produced elaborate verse mocking the exchange.

Spring's recovery attempts reopened disputes about Chinese policy, trading volume, and whether charts helped traders or merely explained yesterday. June's seized-bitcoin auction gave the thread rules and practical buying problems to inspect. Personal decisions remained central: JayJuanGee described accumulating, while mmitech said trading gains had paid debts and bought time with family.

By August, Newbie1022 described disrupted sleep and daily routines. September sharpened arguments about whether falling prices undermined adoption. October's enormous Bitstamp sell wall became a collective spectacle, although its owner and purpose remained unknown. November's rally revived hopes; December returned to accumulation, exhaustion, and Christmas greetings.

Trains, moon journeys, daily doubling, cryogenic holding, and imaginary monks kept uncertainty sociable. Quotation attention could mean admiration, irritation, or outright disagreement. The year's recurring achievement was keeping the conversation alive while its participants struggled to agree on what the market meant.

Supporting posts: molecular; JorgeStolfi; JorgeStolfi; humanitee; gizmoh; mmitech.

Direct Links to Yearly Posts

	YEAR	WO REPORT	ANTHOLOGY
	2013	REPORT	ANTHOLOGY
	2014	REPORT	ANTHOLOGY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  

The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

I might have agreed with you before I studied legendary investors.  Now I know that you are wrong and I am right.  It isn't even a matter of opinion.

I stand firmly with Warren Buffett in the camp that less trades is more profitable.  It is actually something I've been preaching for some time now with my repeated praise of the 4-year cycle trading method.  After several decades of trading experience I can tell you that the way to make a fortune is to wait for a good idea (Bitcoin, Nvidia, Amazon, SpaceX, etc...) and then buy for the long haul.  They don't come around every day.  Waiting for the right investment and then going hard is the way.  If you're always trying to make a trade instead of waiting for the right trade, you will quickly learn why the best performing investment class is deceased people, and it isn't even close.

[OutOfMemory]

I stand firmly with Warren Buffett in the camp that less trades is more profitable.  It is actually something I've been preaching for some time now with my repeated praise of the 4-year cycle trading method.  After several decades of trading experience I can tell you that the way to make a fortune is to wait for a good idea (Bitcoin, Nvidia, Amazon, SpaceX, etc...) and then buy for the long haul.  They don't come around every day.  Waiting for the right investment and then going hard is the way.  If you're always trying to make a trade instead of waiting for the right trade, you will quickly learn why the best performing investment class is deceased people, and it isn't even close.

That's classic Poker, literally.
You don't try to play your hands right, you try to play the right hands.