Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Timmmaahh]

300 BTC wall @ bitstamp is getting eaten coin by coin ?!

yes, but actually it was a second wall of 500 BTC at 622$ after the first which has been eaten.

down to 190

[Wilhelm]

I would estimate $620 so $648 is closer

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Peter R]

Not even sure that the small errors in the physic models are needed. The beauty of René Thom"s chaos theory is that the non-determinism lies deep within the maths.

As an example, even if you know very precisely the speed and the position of the solar's system planets, and the external perturbations, you just can't do the maths, the 3-bodies equations are already too complicated to be solved. And which planet will be ejected from the solar system is still a mystery.

You don't need to solve the equations though. In a deterministic universe, if you know precisely the starting conditions, you could run a simulation and get the prediction. Chaos theory says that small perturbations in the starting conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes. Quantum physics says small perturbations are intrinsic. Even with two initially identical systems, things will occur in one which will not in the other.

But to run a simulation you need to be able to solve the 3-body equations... Unless you're running some sort of simplified heuristic simulation, in which case it could never be absolutely deterministic anyway.

You have to distinguish practical predictability from theoretical predictability. Chaos theory (as well as the difficulty in solving 3-body equations and such) make the universe practically unpredictable. Quantum theory (and only quantum theory) make the universe theoretically unpredictable.

Right.  You can only predict events to the extent that the underlying system is computationally reducible.  Unlike the 2-body problem (that has closed-form solutions), the 3-body problem is computationally irreducible. To determine the answer to which planet gets ejected would require a computer that has more computational power than the universe itself.  In other words, to find out the answer, we must observe reality unfold.  

The question of whether the universe is deterministic is unresolved.  Many physicists claim that wave-function collapse is real, for example citing Bell's work to "disprove" Einstein's hidden-variable theory.  But Bell only showed that no local hidden variable theorem was possible.  This means that if the universe is deterministic, there must be non-local effects.  Stephen Wolfram's concept of the universe as a network of nodes allows for non-locality without violating causality.  

[ihaveaquestion]

Annnnnnnnnnnnddddddddd... here comes the third ask wall @622$ on Stamp. 600 BTC this time.

[pietje]

And there is the 3th 522 wall, wonder how much this guy is going to sell

[Timmmaahh]

And there is the 3th 522 wall, wonder how much this guy is going to sell

bitmaintech selling their btc to fiat

[Todorius]

This is getting ridiculous. This whale puts up one ask wall after another, hehe. And they get bigger every time 

[aminorex]

Even with two initially identical systems, things will occur in one which will not in the other.

consider then, in an everett-wheeler multiverse, there will be frames in which the actual laws of physics will be rejected with arbitrarily high p value.

[oda.krell]

In the event of no good or bad press, based on the charts we're due for another pop over 630 approximately June 2-3.  

I've been saying it for the last few days and I will say it again. $666 by Monday. Once the walls are removed/eaten that's the next stop. It seams to be a favorite hangout spot and then we will either crash back to $610-$605 or continue our rise. If we break $700 we will see a new ATH before any significant down turn.

I'm not saying you're wrong about $666 after the weekend, or even breaking $700 fairly soon. But I keep wondering how people can start seriously getting excited about the next ATH when volume still looks like this:





At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

[Parazyd]

It will get better and better each day. It just needs more promotion...

[BitchicksHusband]

In the event of no good or bad press, based on the charts we're due for another pop over 630 approximately June 2-3.  

I've been saying it for the last few days and I will say it again. $666 by Monday. Once the walls are removed/eaten that's the next stop. It seams to be a favorite hangout spot and then we will either crash back to $610-$605 or continue our rise. If we break $700 we will see a new ATH before any significant down turn.

I'm not saying you're wrong about $666 after the weekend, or even breaking $700 fairly soon. But I keep wondering how people can start seriously getting excited about the next ATH when volume still looks like this:





At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

Because many of us believe that a lot of volume has gone off-market, but strangely still has a similar effect on the price.

[Taras]

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In all seriousness, I think we're going up from here. The amount of time between the april and november bubbles has already passed somehow.

[Parazyd]

LOL!

Page 7000 is close

[jl2012]

In the event of no good or bad press, based on the charts we're due for another pop over 630 approximately June 2-3.  

I've been saying it for the last few days and I will say it again. $666 by Monday. Once the walls are removed/eaten that's the next stop. It seams to be a favorite hangout spot and then we will either crash back to $610-$605 or continue our rise. If we break $700 we will see a new ATH before any significant down turn.

I'm not saying you're wrong about $666 after the weekend, or even breaking $700 fairly soon. But I keep wondering how people can start seriously getting excited about the next ATH when volume still looks like this:





At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

You have a point but please remember in the post-gox era people do not trust exchanges as much as before

[Arghhh]

Regarding volume, I tried to register for Bitstamp a few months ago, and it asked me for a scan of my passport and social security card.

That's not only a no, it's a "Fuck No".

That with the rumored difficulty of withdrawing, Bitstamp's KYC procedure has effectively killed off its volume.

[Parazyd]

Regarding volume, I tried to register for Bitstamp a few months ago, and it asked me for a scan of my passport and social security card.

That's not just a no, it's a "Fuck No".

That with the rumored difficulty of withdrawing, Bitstamp's KYC procedure has effectively killed off its volume.

Say wha?

Where are you from? When I made my account, my ID card and a phone bill was enough.


EDIT: And I don't see any difficulties in withdrawal, be it fiat or BTC.

[oda.krell]

In the event of no good or bad press, based on the charts we're due for another pop over 630 approximately June 2-3.  

I've been saying it for the last few days and I will say it again. $666 by Monday. Once the walls are removed/eaten that's the next stop. It seams to be a favorite hangout spot and then we will either crash back to $610-$605 or continue our rise. If we break $700 we will see a new ATH before any significant down turn.

I'm not saying you're wrong about $666 after the weekend, or even breaking $700 fairly soon. But I keep wondering how people can start seriously getting excited about the next ATH when volume still looks like this:


[...]


At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

Because many of us believe that a lot of volume has gone off-market, but strangely still has a similar effect on the price.

Agreed on the increased fraction of off-exchange volume. But disagreed on the notion that it would affect price more or less as if it were on-exchange. On-exchange volume is needed to drive on-exchange price, that's my belief.

I'll formulate it in the form of a falsifiable hypothesis: before seeing $1200 on Bitstamp, we will have to see at least one instance of 3d xbt volume above 300k, summing up over the major USD exchanges (currently: stamp, finex, btc-e).

[adamstgBit]

What does "100k coins per day USD volume" even mean?

probably means that the float would change hands weekly

[Wolf Rainer]

The 622 sell wall it´s getting eat very fast, from 750 to 590 in lest than half hour. In 4 o 5 hours we will pass the 622 wall.