Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JulieFig]

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...
(...)

LOL, GREAT Post a donation address!

The only thing that could distort this model is that the number of pages in this thread will start an exponential trend

You are so right! But maybe this whole thread is one big "Observer Effect" (hell - it's in the name of the thread!)...

The Observer Effect: "Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed."

(Side note: I have never received a donation before... that is so cool! There are some very nice people on this forum.)

edit: Had to add this...

I will send you one in a few minutes, need to restart my client.
Well, the BTC community is rather generous, I am here more than a year and when you actually produce a chart or help other people, you get donations, sometimes

Is this a donation-worthy chart?



I did this up when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel here held, and sure enough, the price hit the lower channel boundary and is slowly creeping up (the red line).

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then plotted these peaks only and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow an exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,800 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,000!

One last interesting point of note... the runup to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in the next 10-20 days?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Walsoraj]

http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/

Williams remains definant

In a new interview with CoinDesk, Williams opened up about his famous prediction, offering a defiant analysis of why he is still convinced the current high price of bitcoin won’t remain for long.

Williams told CoinDesk:

“I continue to stick to my 2013 prediction that bitcoin is grossly overpriced and the price will eventually adjust dramatically downward as the priced-for-perfection expectations set by bitcoin promoters cannot be met.”

SELL SELL SELL! 

[Richy_T]

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

It would be cool if someone could work out a root cause for this. It would be interesting if it was a slight mistuning in the Bitcoin protocol. Or perhaps a harmonic of reward halving.

[kurious]

They were talking about it in the Meta section one day.  IIRC ~0.1BTC is the going rate for Sr. Member.  

Is there a premium for accounts with avatars?

Depends on the Avatar...

Personally I am gutted I never bothered to get one earlier on.   But if you were buying one to scam, it might be a negative - you'd want credibility but not recognition, I would imagine.

EDIT: I would pay more than 0.1BTC for one of my choice - I think goat said you can cross Theymos' palm, but he can afford a little more then me

[kurious]

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

It would be cool if someone could work out a root cause for this. It would be interesting if it was a slight mistuning in the Bitcoin protocol. Or perhaps a harmonic of reward halving.

Seems too regular to not have some factor affecting it, but once a pattern is established, it will be expected and therefore (potentially) self-fulfilling.

[kurious]

I was waiting up so I could post on page 7000...

Can everyone hold back on long posts or large charts until morning (BST) and not spoil it, so I can go to bed?

BTW - someone was looking for a name for the celebration when price and page counts converge.

How about 'Parity Party'?

[JayJuanGee]

They were talking about it in the Meta section one day.  IIRC ~0.1BTC is the going rate for Sr. Member. 

Is there a premium for accounts with avatars?

I want an avatar!

[JulieFig]

I was waiting up so I could post on page 7000...

Can everyone hold back on long posts or large charts until morning (BST) and not spoil it, so I can go to bed?

BTW - someone was looking for a name for the celebration when price and page counts converge.

How about 'Parity Party'?

Yeah, my suggestion was "Wall Observer Thread Ultimate Parity Party" or "WOTUP Party".

[kurious]

I was waiting up so I could post on page 7000...

Can everyone hold back on long posts or large charts until morning (BST) and not spoil it, so I can go to bed?

BTW - someone was looking for a name for the celebration when price and page counts converge.

How about 'Parity Party'?

Yeah, my suggestion was "Wall Observer Thread Ultimate Parity Party" or "WOTUP Party".

Hmm... That acronym works - two syllables compared to mine

[bpnave]

I was waiting up so I could post on page 7000...

Can everyone hold back on long posts or large charts until morning (BST) and not spoil it, so I can go to bed?

BTW - someone was looking for a name for the celebration when price and page counts converge.

How about 'Parity Party'?

Yeah, my suggestion was "Wall Observer Thread Ultimate Parity Party" or "WOTUP Party".

YOU WOT MATE?

(but seriously though that acronym is fantastic)

[aminorex]

Seems too regular to not have some factor affecting it, but once a pattern is established, it will be expected and therefore (potentially) self-fulfilling eliminated by arbitrageurs.

FTFY

[JayJuanGee]

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...
(...)

LOL, GREAT Post a donation address!

The only thing that could distort this model is that the number of pages in this thread will start an exponential trend

You are so right! But maybe this whole thread is one big "Observer Effect" (hell - it's in the name of the thread!)...

The Observer Effect: "Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed."

(Side note: I have never received a donation before... that is so cool! There are some very nice people on this forum.)

edit: Had to add this...

I will send you one in a few minutes, need to restart my client.
Well, the BTC community is rather generous, I am here more than a year and when you actually produce a chart or help other people, you get donations, sometimes

Is this a donation-worthy chart?



I did this up when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel here held, and sure enough, the price hit the lower channel boundary and is slowly creeping up (the red line).

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then plotted these peaks only and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow an exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,800 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,000!

One last interesting point of note... the runup to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in the next 10-20 days?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...

That charting and explanation is even nicer than the first one.  You are a bit more optimistic than me, and I kind of wonder whether you are in approximately the Rpietila camp of optimism.  I am doubtful that the future bubbles are going to be as grand as the past bubbles, yet I have NO problem if they are b/c I would benefit greatly from that, since I have expanded considerably my BTC portfolio over the last six months and I am expecting to expand my portfolio much more in the next year, as my fiat comes in.

[aminorex]

Weekly MACD could turn green ... soon-ish.

[Davyd05]

Weekly MACD could turn green ... soon-ish.

my thoughts exactly.. June 5th is still possible no?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Adrian-x]

They were talking about it in the Meta section one day.  IIRC ~0.1BTC is the going rate for Sr. Member. 

Is there a premium for accounts with avatars?

I want an avatar!

All this time I though people were lazy.

[Adrian-x]

Seems too regular to not have some factor affecting it, but once a pattern is established, it will be expected and therefore (potentially) self-fulfilling eliminated by arbitrageurs.

FTFY

One last pump to go then Pavlov's dog's will be conditioned for the next 2, they will be the ultimate bag holder catalyst.

[byronbb]

Weekly MACD could turn green ... soon-ish.

my thoughts exactly.. June 5th is still possible no?

What's interesting is the downtrend (although already broken) would have converged on June 5th. Someone might have front run the rally and bought early.

[kurious]

Seems too regular to not have some factor affecting it, but once a pattern is established, it will be expected and therefore (potentially) self-fulfilling eliminated by arbitrageurs.

FTFY

One last pump to go then Pavlov's dog's will be conditioned for the next 2, they will be the ultimate bag holder catalyst.

Of course you are right, once a pattern is apparent, it will in future be played.