Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[boumalo]

here we go
bitstamp starts rising...

No ? 653..

656$ atm

I feel there is way more chance of having +50$ in a month than -50$, let's bid up

[Cassius]

IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

A lot of high net worth, major corps and investment funds are investing into a 8 Billion capsize, very little of which is for sale ?

Such entities investing in bitcoin in a conservative manner would bring the price at least 100 times higher.
Such entities investing in bitcoin aggressively would bring the price about 1000 times higher.

These entities still have not touched bitcoin with a pole stick.

I think you're absolutely wrong. Many high net worth individuals have come out to say they own bitcoin. We also have funds like second market, and more in the works. These people do not nor would they buy bitcoins on any of the exchanges that exist today. They would again IMO go to the major holders of today's Bitcoin and secure OTC purchases. They might even go to the major mining pools and buy direct. It wouldn't surprise me if a mining pool has already secured contracts to sell so many bitcoins at a set price over a period of mining to some key players. Everyone has an eye and a toe dipped into bitcoin, it's to risky not to, and when the time is right we will see what they want to do with it. One thing I can promise is you and I have no control, all we can do is sit back and enjoy whatever ride we are on.

Who is this everyone?  

As far as OTC transactions, If these people are selling OTC they aren't selling on exchanges.  How does that effect exchange prices?

Surely they'd arbitrage on the exchanges if it was worthwhile? Plus some will buy from exchanges (SecondMarket) if that's the cheapest source.

[faalhaas]

It's funny seeing people, who weren't even around when this thread started, posting about it's content and rules. Almost as funny as the couple of bears who just came out of the woods once the price had stalled calling for a crash.

-----

On another note, since we didn't rise this weekend and didn't fall I expect new money coming on during the week to finally get us moving up again.

Oh lets go back to the weekend dip mindset hahahahaha 90% don't know dick about btc. (including me)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

A lot of high net worth, major corps and investment funds are investing into a 8 Billion capsize, very little of which is for sale ?

Such entities investing in bitcoin in a conservative manner would bring the price at least 100 times higher.
Such entities investing in bitcoin aggressively would bring the price about 1000 times higher.

These entities still have not touched bitcoin with a pole stick.

I think you're absolutely wrong. Many high net worth individuals have come out to say they own bitcoin. We also have funds like second market, and more in the works. These people do not nor would they buy bitcoins on any of the exchanges that exist today. They would again IMO go to the major holders of today's Bitcoin and secure OTC purchases. They might even go to the major mining pools and buy direct. It wouldn't surprise me if a mining pool has already secured contracts to sell so many bitcoins at a set price over a period of mining to some key players. Everyone has an eye and a toe dipped into bitcoin, it's to risky not to, and when the time is right we will see what they want to do with it. One thing I can promise is you and I have no control, all we can do is sit back and enjoy whatever ride we are on.

Many like 1 out of 1000 ?

The combined wealth of all HNWI in the world is 50 trillions USD (without their primary residence). If only 1% of these people would put only 10% of their wealth (without home) in BTC, the market cap would already be 50 billions.
That's only 1% of them and only 10% of their wealth without home.
And that's without talking about any other entity.
And that's assuming that all early adopters sell them their coins.

A few HNWI claiming they bought bitcoins in the media is not representative of what is happening. I maintain that HNWI still didn't touch bitcoin (0.1% could not be considered meaningful).

I agree, and I disagree.

Practically, what matters for us, is the market price. The 'big players' haven't touched Bitcoin yet in any way that affects that market price.

I do consider it possible (though not necessary likely) that off exchange, accumulation of those entities has progressed much further. But since I know of no way of saying that this is happening with certainty, and more importantly: since the public market as a whole has no way of determining it, it won't affect price, and (by my first point), doesn't matter to us.

[derpinheimer]

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

[faalhaas]

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

Why hunnypon ?

[deadley]

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

Nah this weekend look like wont be interesting. Its just moving 3-5 usd movement.

[derpinheimer]

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

Why hunnypon ?

Just a quick analysis. I only post it to see if I was right later. (and why not share it?! HUH?!)

[JayJuanGee]

Small rally incoming, me thinks.

Why hunnypon ?

Just a quick analysis. I only post it to see if I was right later. (and why not share it?! HUH?!)

And if there is a rally, will it be up, or down?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

Many like 1 out of 1000 ?

The combined wealth of all HNWI in the world is 50 trillions USD (without their primary residence). If only 1% of these people would put only 10% of their wealth (without home) in BTC, the market cap would already be 50 billions.

More like 500 bn.  It is a year away or more, discounting the winter/spring bubble prices.

[aminorex]

some will buy from exchanges (SecondMarket) if that's the cheapest least dodgy source.

FTFY

[Miz4r]

And if there is a rally, will it be up, or down?

Sideways rally of course.

[oda.krell]

some will buy from exchanges (SecondMarket) if that's the cheapest least dodgy source.

FTFY

The currently least dodgy source that scales to the demands of our wealthy imaginary coinnoisseur, by all stretches of my imagination, is a sufficiently large mining operation.

It's the wealthy, imaginary non-coinnoisseur who nonetheless follows the advice of his financial advisors that will have to wait for more reputable venues to emerge that don't rely on direct contact with miners. I don't know where the 'about 1 year' figure comes from that I keep hearing. Is there any substance to it?

[Erdogan]

IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

A lot of high net worth, major corps and investment funds are investing into a 8 Billion capsize, very little of which is for sale ?

Such entities investing in bitcoin in a conservative manner would bring the price at least 100 times higher.
Such entities investing in bitcoin aggressively would bring the price about 1000 times higher.

These entities still have not touched bitcoin with a pole stick.

I think you're absolutely wrong. Many high net worth individuals have come out to say they own bitcoin. We also have funds like second market, and more in the works. These people do not nor would they buy bitcoins on any of the exchanges that exist today. They would again IMO go to the major holders of today's Bitcoin and secure OTC purchases. They might even go to the major mining pools and buy direct. It wouldn't surprise me if a mining pool has already secured contracts to sell so many bitcoins at a set price over a period of mining to some key players. Everyone has an eye and a toe dipped into bitcoin, it's to risky not to, and when the time is right we will see what they want to do with it. One thing I can promise is you and I have no control, all we can do is sit back and enjoy whatever ride we are on.

Many like 1 out of 1000 ?

The combined wealth of all HNWI in the world is 50 trillions USD (without their primary residence). If only 1% of these people would put only 10% of their wealth (without home) in BTC, the market cap would already be 50 billions.
That's only 1% of them and only 10% of their wealth without home.
And that's without talking about any other entity.
And that's assuming that all early adopters sell them their coins.

A few HNWI claiming they bought bitcoins in the media is not representative of what is happening. I maintain that HNWI still didn't touch bitcoin (0.1% could not be considered meaningful).

I agree, and I disagree.

Practically, what matters for us, is the market price. The 'big players' haven't touched Bitcoin yet in any way that affects that market price.

I do consider it possible (though not necessary likely) that off exchange, accumulation of those entities has progressed much further. But since I know of no way of saying that this is happening with certainty, and more importantly: since the public market as a whole has no way of determining it, it won't affect price, and (by my first point), doesn't matter to us.

The problem with regulated financial institutions, is that they are practically banned from buying bitcoins, because they might be held responsible for their decisions. Low risk, to them, is advancing anything that the competition also advances. It makes them a herd of sheep.

Some high net worth individuals (rich people) migh create a fund with their own money and invite others in, they could possibly buy some coins, but the primary way the financial world will parttake in this phase is individuals in the financial business buying coins privately.

[Raystonn]

The currently least dodgy source that scales to the demands of our wealthy imaginary coinnoisseur, by all stretches of my imagination, is a sufficiently large mining operation.

And that would mean less selling by miners on exchanges.

[oda.krell]

The currently least dodgy source that scales to the demands of our wealthy imaginary coinnoisseur, by all stretches of my imagination, is a sufficiently large mining operation.

And that would mean less selling by miners on exchanges.

Sure. I doubt 3600 coins are thrown onto the exchanges each day.

Alright, as a minimum, let's say: 50% of hashrate is "centralized", and they sell only about half: I doubt 900 new coins arrive daily at the exchanges.

I'm not the only one to believe this rally is mainly driven by lack of selling pressure, not by overwhelming buying pressure. Which is not necessarily bad. Whatever drives the price will eventually create sufficient buying pressure.

[alani123]

Look at all the average Joes buying in, because BTC solves a problem for them and doesnt add 10 new problems. Almost 500 000 000 ppl use BTC daily to purchase goods and not to hold it for the rest of their lives....because deflation makes sense in economy.

What? 500 millions of people? Yeah right.  You obviously have no idea what you're talking about.

[MatTheCat]

here we go
bitstamp starts rising...

Say what?

All I see is quite literally record low volume!