Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The one thing I hate about Bitcoin rising is fonzie inevitable come to post his shit each 2 minutes. Was so good without him while we were at bottom. What a sad fuck.

Don´t you worry my darling, the times of a rising Bitcoin is over!Resumed and prolonged bear market has just started! MIght take 2-3 weeks until we hit the new bottom.

Me and my lil doggie are thinking a similar thing.... we will reach a new BTC price bottom for the period in 2-3 weeks, and that BTC price bottom would be around $611 or possibly $607... My little doggie is NOT very clairvoyant about her 7s & 11s.

[JayJuanGee]

Either short or has a vested interest in big government.

don't forget about banks... and large status quo money institutions...

[SFHere]

Stupid Dish Network. Every time they get involved in something it turns to total crap. 

[wachtwoord]

just switched to btce from stamp.

You think BTCe is more reliable? 

[inca]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

[inca]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric, and that is spread across all exchanges rather than concentrated on Mt Gox only.

[tarmi]

is a price difference between exchanges normal?  Ive noticed that huobi always seems to be 10-15$USD above Stamp...

makes sense. no fiat deposits in china means price going up.  

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

It's not surprising. Many people here are more interested in trading than in Bitcoin.

When the price levels out it makes them uncomfortable. Any movement becomes a big deal.

[bitcoinsrus]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

It's not surprising. Many people here are more interested in trading than in Bitcoin.

When the price levels out it makes them uncomfortable. Any movement becomes a big deal.

Those 5 dollar spreads could make you hundreds of dollars 

[inca]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

[JayJuanGee]

Today is the day the new weekly MACD candle will appear right?

What do you think will happen?
Will something happen? or still sideways?

There were 5 weekly green candles in a row, and in recent hours, the latest green candle turned to red, based on that recent price action. 

Some have been calling this the beginning of a bear trend; however, those kinds of statements asserting a downtrend seem premature. 

Accordingly, I am of the sense that generally, this market is transitioning from its February to May bear market into a bull market.. however, the period that we are in at the moment is a transition that may last a few more weeks and possibly up to two months before we can truly declare a bull market.

I am actually thinking that the overall sideways (maybe a little down and a little up) will only last a few more weeks, yet as we know it remains very difficult to be very precise when any such price movements are going to take place b/c certain big market players could behave in such a way to screw up the prediction.

[Wolf Rainer]

We are gonna die! Why is still dropping?

[samsonn25]

EMA $566  on the 1 day charts

[wachtwoord]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power.

[JimboToronto]

If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly. The days of BTC10,000 pizzas are long gone.

A year ago it took 10K to make you a whale. Now a couple of thousand will do.

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power.

Base currency volume is the only metric to measure how much of the currency itself has changed hands.

What you are saying is that $10,000,000 has the same relevance to move the market when:

1. The market cap is $10,000,000 and 100% of the coins are being purchased
2. The market cap is $100,000,000 and 10% of the coins are being purchased
3. The market cap is $100,000,000,000 and 0.01% of the coins are being purchased
4. The market cap is $10 and it is impossible to even purchase that many coins.

This is clearly false.

[HerrAndreas]

We are gonna die! Why is still dropping?

where do you see it still droping?
I see stamp hovering around 622.