Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[inca]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

[inca]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric, and that is spread across all exchanges rather than concentrated on Mt Gox only.

[tarmi]

is a price difference between exchanges normal?  Ive noticed that huobi always seems to be 10-15$USD above Stamp...

makes sense. no fiat deposits in china means price going up.  

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

It's not surprising. Many people here are more interested in trading than in Bitcoin.

When the price levels out it makes them uncomfortable. Any movement becomes a big deal.

[bitcoinsrus]

A little perspective here people. The price doubled in a month. One slight pullback in the midst of massive internet company side adoption and it is bear central here.

Hilarious how twitchy you all are.

It's not surprising. Many people here are more interested in trading than in Bitcoin.

When the price levels out it makes them uncomfortable. Any movement becomes a big deal.

Those 5 dollar spreads could make you hundreds of dollars 

[inca]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

[JayJuanGee]

Today is the day the new weekly MACD candle will appear right?

What do you think will happen?
Will something happen? or still sideways?

There were 5 weekly green candles in a row, and in recent hours, the latest green candle turned to red, based on that recent price action. 

Some have been calling this the beginning of a bear trend; however, those kinds of statements asserting a downtrend seem premature. 

Accordingly, I am of the sense that generally, this market is transitioning from its February to May bear market into a bull market.. however, the period that we are in at the moment is a transition that may last a few more weeks and possibly up to two months before we can truly declare a bull market.

I am actually thinking that the overall sideways (maybe a little down and a little up) will only last a few more weeks, yet as we know it remains very difficult to be very precise when any such price movements are going to take place b/c certain big market players could behave in such a way to screw up the prediction.

[Wolf Rainer]

We are gonna die! Why is still dropping?

[samsonn25]

EMA $566  on the 1 day charts

[wachtwoord]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power.

[JimboToronto]

If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly. The days of BTC10,000 pizzas are long gone.

A year ago it took 10K to make you a whale. Now a couple of thousand will do.

[TERA]

Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant?  I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.

It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is).  And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand.

By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change).

Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that.  If we did - I'd be very happy to see it!

BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin.

You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric.

No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency.

Rubbish. If the price of a BTC has risen 50x in a year then clearly expecting the same trading volume in BTC is ridiculous.

Exactly, compare volume in purchasing power.

Base currency volume is the only metric to measure how much of the currency itself has changed hands.

What you are saying is that $10,000,000 has the same relevance to move the market when:

1. The market cap is $10,000,000 and 100% of the coins are being purchased
2. The market cap is $100,000,000 and 10% of the coins are being purchased
3. The market cap is $100,000,000,000 and 0.01% of the coins are being purchased
4. The market cap is $10 and it is impossible to even purchase that many coins.

This is clearly false.

[HerrAndreas]

We are gonna die! Why is still dropping?

where do you see it still droping?
I see stamp hovering around 622.

[dnaleor]

I succelfully got my BTC out of stamp. No problems at all...
Now I will need to send it back If I want do dump  

[Ivanhoe]

Expedia accepts bitcoin, yahoo finance adds bitcoin. Someone dumps 1k bitcoin and it's a bear festival in here. Keep your nerves together man

[JayJuanGee]

what is happening at bitstamp is very fishy.

Didn't you think the KYC was fishy enough? These are the signs of an exchange in trouble. It has happened before, and will likely happen again. You have all been through it before, but can you act on it? Time will tell. My coins have left stamp for now.

Posters here keep trying to make comparison of bitstamp to GOX... and there is NO there there.


There are legitimate business justifiable and practical reasons for KYC rules, and the application of these various KYC rules at Bitstamp is NOT unreasonable and it is NOT very widespread info that Stamp is actually preventing customers from withdrawing their funds.

[JayJuanGee]

why such stamp FUD?
Really, I don't see signs why there are problems at that exchange...

Then you need to open your eyes. Please try to make sense of how this is actually just normal. Remember how gox had the most irrational trading going on the last month before it closed? Well, it might not be the case, but do you want to keep your coins there?

GOX had problems for like 18 months before it closed... and 4-6 months before it closed it had more problems and then 1 month before it closed it had even more problems.  Stamp is NO where near the problems of GOX, yet....  and I have NOT really seen any evidence of any real or meaningful problems.. besides mere rumors.