Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

[...woefully incomplete enumeration of factors which can contribute to a rising price omitted...]

All of these need to add up to whatever the current markep cap in BTC is (13,000,000 etc)[sic]

Absolutely not.  The amount of fiat burned is not equal to the market cap, ever.

Please add to my list then. I thought it was a good list of things that actually occur on a physical level to move prices. I'd group these together into the 'physical layer'. Now there are other things you could say moves the price like "news", but that would belong to the 'cognitive layer'. Anything that exists in the cognitive layer must still be manifested in the physical layer somehow.

The only thing that moves the price is that the lowest seller and the highest buyer agree on a different price than the previous lowest seller and highest buyer.

In this case, all 13,000,000 bitcoins have to decided to hold (or are lost), which was one of my choices

[falllling]

I pity the fools who think $600 is max we'll ever be again.

I ignore these fools..

really? the price has dropped from $680 to now $62x, why haven't you done something? go ahead and buy 6k bitcoins and sell later when the price hit your max please

[Gianluca95]

all sells on stamp come from one person! what is he doing ?

why would some normal trader sell on stamp for 620 instead of finex on 640.

Maybe because whom sell after short time will buy again?

All sells on stamp come from one person because volume is too much low, so a good quantity of btc can be sufficies to manipulate the market.

[ag@th0s]

What will happen if gox liguidators just dump all the coin on the market at once (could happen it is a gov't)
[ ... ]
(again these are japanese bureaucrats...they could just keep their job safe and dump it all on the market ...quick/fast/dirty like a regular gov't auction

A public auction is the normal way to liquidate the assets of a failed company.  Any other method (such as selling them in the open market, or to a private buyer) would expose the liquidator to charges of favoritism, incompetent trading, etc..  That also holds for the coins that the FBI seized from SilkRoad.

The FBI will use their government auction staff, but the MtGOX liquidator will probably hire some private auctioning firm.  Presumably they will divide the coins into a couple dozen lots, each auctioned separately, in order to attract more buyers.  Other than that, I don't expect them to worry much about getting the best possible price.

The people who will buy those coins at the auction will then dispose of them according to their interest. 

By the way, I suppose that the prices off-market for "bulk" trades are not much different from the open market price.  If the off-market price was much lower, there would be people buying bitcoins in bulk off-market to sell them little by little on the open market.
Conversely, if the off-market price was much higher.   Is this correct?

Not if they're hodler's and are buying for mid-term - long term.  The sense that Bitcoin isn't going to crash back down to pre $266 levels and will actually continue some incremental increase (because of it's utility) is strong.  I predict, that at some point in your life you will look back to the lowest price you could have ever bought bitcoin for....with some regret.

[segeln]

What will happen if gox liguidators just dump all the coin on the market at once (could happen it is a gov't)
[ ... ]
(again these are japanese bureaucrats...they could just keep their job safe and dump it all on the market ...quick/fast/dirty like a regular gov't auction

A public auction is the normal way to liquidate the assets of a failed company.  Any other method (such as selling them in the open market, or to a private buyer) would expose the liquidator to charges of favoritism, incompetent trading, etc..  That also holds for the coins that the FBI seized from SilkRoad.

The FBI will use their government auction staff, but the MtGOX liquidator will probably hire some private auctioning firm.  Presumably they will divide the coins into a couple dozen lots, each auctioned separately, in order to attract more buyers.  Other than that, I don't expect them to worry much about getting the best possible price.

The people who will buy those coins at the auction will then dispose of them according to their interest. 

By the way, I suppose that the prices off-market for "bulk" trades are not much different from the open market price.  If the off-market price was much lower, there would be people buying bitcoins in bulk off-market to sell them little by little on the open market.
Conversely, if the off-market price was much higher.   Is this correct?

+1 ,as always

[amitrwt]

looking at current price there should be at least one other polling option b/w  $645 and $540 may be 615$

[JorgeStolfi]

This post by @cryptoceelo may be of interest to miners: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=640717.msg7266240#msg7266240

[zimmah]

Bitcoin gone mainstream , relax and enjoy the ride

i would say, enjoy the price dropping plus money losing and maybe a full market crushing to $5xx and $4xx very soon!
thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, there will be no more $1000 crazy buy, face the reality, $6xx is already the top bubble, time to calm down

Fonzie, is that you?

[Todorius]

Now that the trolls come out of their hiding again ( I really did enjoy the short period of calmness without these assh**es posting their regular s**t in this subforum (looking at you Jorge, Fonzi, etc), sorry for the drastic words )
I want to kindly remind you of what happened in 2013:



Notice the similarities starting from the July bottom back then to the maximum in early September. Perfect retracement to the first Fibo support level at 115, then a stabilization at around 120-125, then sideways action for a few weeks.

We now might be seeing the same here. Testing suppor at the first Fibo Level, slightly over 600, then recovering to 620-640, then a few weeks of sideways action. I don't think a flashcrash like the SR closure in early October 2013 will happen this time.
And then in early July, the real rally will probably start.

[sickpig]

Bitcoin gone mainstream , relax and enjoy the ride

i would say, enjoy the price dropping plus money losing and maybe a full market crushing to $5xx and $4xx very soon!
thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, there will be no more $1000 crazy buy, face the reality, $6xx is already the top bubble, time to calm down

Fonzie, is that you?

Is Fonzie falllling ? :-)

[TERA]

based on a potential fractal I noticed.

please tell me this fractal is from 2012  



seriously, just add a couple zero's onto those prices and boom! it's like time travel! 

Here's a rough version of my fractal idea (bearish case scenario):

[falllling]

Bitcoin gone mainstream , relax and enjoy the ride

i would say, enjoy the price dropping plus money losing and maybe a full market crushing to $5xx and $4xx very soon!
thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, there will be no more $1000 crazy buy, face the reality, $6xx is already the top bubble, time to calm down

Fonzie, is that you?

Is Fonzie falllling ? :-)

the answer is no and it doesn't matter

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...

[Cassius]

Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...

Rather than this suggesting Stamp's insolvency/Goxxery, it suggests that Stamp has temporarily become the go-to exchange for cashing out coins. People are buying/trading elsewhere and selling/withdrawing on Stamp. Curious. That suggests somewhere else is experiencing fiat withdrawal issues. Another round of Chinese games to come?

[dreamspark]

Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...

Rather than this suggesting Stamp's insolvency/Goxxery, it suggests that Stamp has temporarily become the go-to exchange for cashing out coins. People are buying/trading elsewhere and selling/withdrawing on Stamp. Curious. That suggests somewhere else is experiencing fiat withdrawal issues. Another round of Chinese games to come?

I don't think it says anything about their solvency, insolvency would normally cause people to get their coins out asap which would have the opposite effect. The explanation that its the go to cash out place could hold but why all of a sudden ? Somethings definitely brewing, would have thought someone would be arbing the gap as its been pretty constant.

[Cassius]

Still no real explanation for Stamps lagging behind ? With the amount of USD longs on Finex I would have thought some people would have panicked and bought them back into line...

Rather than this suggesting Stamp's insolvency/Goxxery, it suggests that Stamp has temporarily become the go-to exchange for cashing out coins. People are buying/trading elsewhere and selling/withdrawing on Stamp. Curious. That suggests somewhere else is experiencing fiat withdrawal issues. Another round of Chinese games to come?

I don't think it says anything about their solvency, insolvency would normally cause people to get their coins out asap which would have the opposite effect. The explanation that its the go to cash out place could hold but why all of a sudden ? Somethings definitely brewing, would have thought someone would be arbing the gap as its been pretty constant.

The alternative is that it's one whale continually selling for reasons unknown to the rest of us. Someone earlier in the thread suggested it was one seller. I don't know how you establish that, or why the arb bots aren't taking care of the gap.
Some people have said it's easy to get money out but not in, without the rubber glove treatment. I guess that might incentivise a few to buy elsewhere and go to Stamp to cash out.
None of these explanations are really satisfactory to me, though. But insolvency does not fit either.

[inca]

based on a potential fractal I noticed.

please tell me this fractal is from 2012  



seriously, just add a couple zero's onto those prices and boom! it's like time travel! 

Here's a rough version of my fractal idea (bearish case scenario):

I am happy to be corrected, but your last few predictions were not exactly prophetic.

We may wobble up and down a bit before the next move but day traders really cannot see the wood for the trees!

[TERA]

I am happy to be corrected, but your last few predictions were not exactly prophetic.

We may wobble up and down a bit before the next move but day traders really cannot see the wood for the trees!

It's not a "prediction"! It's just a 'idea of a potential fractal' I had. Anyway I made another thread about it.

[Parazyd]

Nobody wants to buy BTC on Bitstamp. Just my luck...