Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MoreFun]

Guys here say that silver market is manipulated https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e65UQLRkrw

And manipulating BTC market is childishly easy if you had $5M or even less a year ago and some relatively good connections.

Yeah, I know the nutters. I've been around here for a while, so I've seen it all (and even used to believe some of it). Even if it was manipulated, this is not information to you, it is disinformation. You will try and act counter the manipulator, but that will lose you money. Today's price is a product of manipulation, so is tomorrow's, in a month, in a year, ... If reality is manipulated, then the manipulation makes reality. One has to deal with it. Why not buy some assets that are manipulated upwards?

Its very profitable to manipulate upwards the product that could potentially be huge and their assets are scarce. You just pump the market ahead of time when noone expects - of course you need to have some momentum for that. Someone probably figured it out. You can not P&D shit multiple times on big level.

[Gyrsur]

let us come to a conclusion: the market is manipulated in this way that early adopters are still cash out there early coins to minimize there losses.

i mean "losses" in context of the last ATH.

and the turning point was GHASH's 51% percent attack which never happened.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=654799.0

[DeadCoin]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

Wrong. Most people want to have as much fiat as possible. They see bitcoin only as a tool to produce fiat, if it fail to do so, they'll simply leave it and forget it.

[Bitcoin-Club]

looks like we have hit the bottom: http://bitcoin-club.com/bitcoin-bot/bitcoin-trading-bot-regression/

[NotLambchop]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

>just selling now to buy more later
>Most people want to have as much BTC as possible
>Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back

[aclass]

Wrong. There is really lots and lots of money to be made in crypto. One will only fail if one is not big enough to play or skilled enough to win.

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

Wrong. Most people want to have as much fiat as possible. They see bitcoin only as a tool to produce fiat, if it fail to do so, they'll simply leave it and forget it.

[JorgeStolfi]

The thing is it's NOT old coins. None of the old chaps is selling right now.

Just because the coins moved recently, it does not mean that they were bought recently.

Some owners of old cheap coins must have moved them to an exchange at some point, but withdrew them when MtGOX started failing, and people realized that exchanges were not safe places to keep your one's hoard.

Other old owners may have moved their coins to new addresses for safety or other reasons.

If someone pays a small amount out of a large input, and sends the change-back to a different address, the age of those the change-back coins will be reset for the purposes of the change-back formula, correct?  What if the change-back is sent to the same address?

Finally, it seems that there is a lot of "fake" volume on the blockchain (coins moving between addresses belonging to the same person), perhaps from tumbling or hotwallet/coldwallet flow.  For that reason, if someone sells a thousand 2011  coins, thus destroying a million bitcoin-days, he will barely make a blip on the chart (which oscillates between 2 million and 15 million BTC-days destroyed per day).  If old owners have been selling a couple thousand old coins every day, we would not see it there.

[EvilPanda]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

Wrong. Most people want to have as much fiat as possible. They see bitcoin only as a tool to produce fiat, if it fail to do so, they'll simply leave it and forget it.

What is a better investment than bitcoin? Even with the recent drop it's still worth over 3 times more than a year ago.
That's why people who sold will buy back, the only question is when.

Wrong. There is really lots and lots of money to be made in crypto. One will only fail if one is not big enough to play or skilled enough to win.

That's right!

[adamstgBit]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

Wrong. Most people want to have as much fiat as possible. They see bitcoin only as a tool to produce fiat, if it fail to do so, they'll simply leave it and forget it.

What is a better investment than bitcoin? Even with the recent drop it's still worth over 3 times more than a year ago.
That's why people who sold will buy back, the only question is when.

not if they use their profits to buy stuff.

in that case they don't have the money to buy.

is this really a problem tho?

[macsga]

The thing is it's NOT old coins. None of the old chaps is selling right now.

Just because the coins moved recently, it does not mean that they were bought recently.

Some owners of old cheap coins must have moved them to an exchange at some point, but withdrew them when MtGOX started failing, and people realized that exchanges were not safe places to keep your one's hoard.

Other old owners may have moved their coins to new addresses for safety or other reasons.

If someone pays a small amount out of a large input, and sends the change-back to a different address, the age of those the change-back coins will be reset for the purposes of the change-back formula, correct?  What if the change-back is sent to the same address?

Finally, it seems that there is a lot of "fake" volume on the blockchain (coins moving between addresses belonging to the same person), perhaps from tumbling or hotwallet/coldwallet flow.  For that reason, if someone sells a thousand 2011  coins, thus destroying a million bitcoin-days, he will barely make a blip on the chart (which oscillates between 2 million and 15 million BTC-days destroyed per day).  If old owners have been selling a couple thousand old coins every day, we would not see it there.

Your theory stands well as far as it concerns the semantics. Nevertheless, if you check with the charts all the spikes have been backed up with heavy price change (up or down). This thing is net dead. That means it's freshly minted OR -as you proposed- moved earlier into the exchanges.

Now the 1M BTC question:
"Would you entrust ANY exchange with your BTCs for say 4-5 months after the MtGox fiasco?"

I rest my case.

[abercrombie]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later. Most people want to have as much BTC as possible and the way to do it is to buy as cheap sa possible.
Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back.

>just selling now to buy more later
>Most people want to have as much BTC as possible
>Most of the people who sold below $400 will eventually buy back

[adamstgBit]

supporting wall under attack

[Bagatell]

Guys here say that silver market is manipulated https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e65UQLRkrw

And manipulating BTC market is childishly easy if you had $5M or even less a year ago and some relatively good connections.

Yeah, I know the nutters. I've been around here for a while, so I've seen it all (and even used to believe some of it). Even if it was manipulated, this is not information to you, it is disinformation. You will try and act counter the manipulator, but that will lose you money. Today's price is a product of manipulation, so is tomorrow's, in a month, in a year, ... If reality is manipulated, then the manipulation makes reality. One has to deal with it. Why not buy some assets that are manipulated upwards?

That's one impressive mental straight jacket you built yourself Blitz.

https://startpage.com/do/search?q=%22market+manipulation%22+site%3Azerohedge.com&lui=english

[mmitech]

The thing is it's NOT old coins. None of the old chaps is selling right now.

Just because the coins moved recently, it does not mean that they were bought recently.

Some owners of old cheap coins must have moved them to an exchange at some point, but withdrew them when MtGOX started failing, and people realized that exchanges were not safe places to keep your one's hoard.

Other old owners may have moved their coins to new addresses for safety or other reasons.

If someone pays a small amount out of a large input, and sends the change-back to a different address, the age of those the change-back coins will be reset for the purposes of the change-back formula, correct?  What if the change-back is sent to the same address?

Finally, it seems that there is a lot of "fake" volume on the blockchain (coins moving between addresses belonging to the same person), perhaps from tumbling or hotwallet/coldwallet flow.  For that reason, if someone sells a thousand 2011  coins, thus destroying a million bitcoin-days, he will barely make a blip on the chart (which oscillates between 2 million and 15 million BTC-days destroyed per day).  If old owners have been selling a couple thousand old coins every day, we would not see it there.

+1

Bitstamp has around 150000BTC in their cold wallet, now all these coins have to have some owners... so technically a seller wouldn't have to move anything to sell, he has an entry in the database that says Account X has Y coins.

And BTW, the days destroyed is a bit complicated to explain, but to prove that that argument is invalid I just took a look at the 500 richest address and I can see that most of these addresses had the first input late 2013 and in 2014, so most likely many of these adopters did something with their Bitcoins in other word they have been moving funds



 

[empowering]

USD   0.0546%   0.1023%   19,737,287.13 USD
BTC   0.038%   0.0116%   12,115.20 BTC
LTC   0.0403%   0.0602%   108,332.76 LTC

Almost ATH!!
If the squeeze happens... this is gonna hurt

[JimboToronto]

Bitcoin is dead.

Cool. It's 2011 all over again.

[ssmc2]

[inca]

USD   0.0546%   0.1023%   19,737,287.13 USD
BTC   0.038%   0.0116%   12,115.20 BTC
LTC   0.0403%   0.0602%   108,332.76 LTC

Almost ATH!!
If the squeeze happens... this is gonna hurt

I wonder who the bears think has been buying all these thousands upon thousands of coins down near the all time low for the year. Keep selling. Just don't whine when all of a sudden the price turns on a dime and you realise leverage isn't easy money.

[ShroomsKit]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later.

Source? Other than your hopes, delusions and fantasies?

[Oblodo]

"More Bitcoin Acceptance (by big e-commerce sites) is the chief reason for the current fall. I even pointed this out in a comment on another blog over 2 weeks ago. Big online merchants aren't keeping the market balanced by using their BTC to purchase inventory, goods, and services. Instead, they're simply dumping their daily intake on the exchanges.

But it gets worse! If a large merchant has sold their goods online that day for, say, 10% under current exchange rates, then they can dump that day's intake of BTC for 9.5% under market and still make dollar profit, but pushing the BTC market down even more in the process."

This!