Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[inca]

A few more dollars and we get above the earlier dead cat..

[mrkavasaki]

do you believe 2015 will be a good year for btc?

[adamstgBit]

do you believe 2015 will be a good year for btc?

i think 2016 will be " the year of bitcoin. "

after this bear is done

we'll have CHEAP coins for a full year easy

this bear is insane

[nanobrain]

One problem I have with this is the assumption that big miners are in it for BTC and not fiat. I don't know everyone's motives but I am sure that for some it is an opportunistic business model (ie buy ASIC's, mine, sell, profit). As such what gives is price and it's a race to the bottom in terms of who has the cheapest electricity. Hardware is a sunk cost now, so it makes sense to continue to mine as long as your electicity costs less than than you can sell the BTC for, even if that means just minimising losses (on sunk costs), for all those miners whose goal is not to accumulate BTC.

We hear many times that miners will just hoard or switch off and buy instead. IMO only those that are true believers and not in it for fiat will do so. The rest will get what they can out of their equipment while they can. Many a bad investment decision has been made in the past and will be in the future in many industries. Why this mythical illusion that BTC is so different?

It looks very much like mining bubble to me

EDIT : In conclusion is it not a perfectly reasonable proposition that difficulty could nosedive to match current price as inefficient miners who are in it for fiat simply switch off their hardware at some point and exit the game or wait for their equipment to become profitable again, if ever? The assumption that they will simply buy BTC instead seems deeply flawed. Meanwhile the BTC inflation rate (supply) will remain constant. In the absence of new demand where does price go ?

I agree that the idea that miners 'start buying' is deeply flawed but when mining becomes unprofitable they will stop mining, supply will be reduced and the price will stabilise.  Is this not part of the big "Satoshi Plan" of checks and balances for the functioning of BTC anyway; at the moment we have a confluence of negative factors: too much supply and negative sentiment due to Gox, Neo et al.

When the miners stop the flow of coins the price will find equilibrium and sentiment will return with a stable price.

Simples.

No ... until the next halving, supply is a constant no matter how many miners mine or what the hash rate is. The unprofitable miners will stop mining, maybe, but that has no effect on the BTC inflation/emission rate, which remains a constant until the next halving regardless of how many miners there are. Whatever the hash rate, the same number of BTC will be mined in the same time (excluding small variance between difficulty adjustments). This is a fundamental part of the BTC protocol - the emission rate is a constant until the 'halvings'


Supply is fixed in this equation, re how many BTC are mined. The variables are difficulty and hash rate, but these have no effect on supply, just on profitability of miners.

If every other miner shut down and you and I could mine the (approx) 3600 BTC per day on laptops once the difficulty rapidly adjusted downwards.

Sure, the network would be massively open to a 51% attack, but I am taking it to en extreme to demonstrate what I believe is a poorly understood function of the BTC supply/demand equilibrium

We'd better get the entire 21M of the buggers mined then and get things simplified then.

And therein lies the problem ... the emission rate is mapped out in advance and an intrinsic part of the protocol ... no way to speed it up without a hard fork. Actually, speeding it up would make things worse right now. Hence the focus on the block reward halving in 2016 (from 25 to 12.5 BTC per block I believe) as a catalyst for the next rally ... LESS SUPPLY !!

Well then, we're screwed.  If these big mining operations don't believe BTC is worth anything as an investment and simply want quick USD profits (or as has been suggested are using it as a way of getting funds out of China) then we are going to have an over-supply which will lead to even lower prices and even fewer people buying or using.  Another year of this and I can't see there being any positive sentiment around BTC.

you think all the bitcoin market put together can't handle 25 BTC every ten mins?

speculation is the thing that makes all these other things completely irrelevant to price.

Clearly it can't.  

Pretty much everything is irrelevant to you with regard to BTC Adam, and while I'm very happy you have such great faith in it, its important to realise that most people clearly have the inverse opinion.

I recall Jorge made a prediction long, long ago that as BTC dwindled in price the market would comprise of fewer and fewer adherents, desperately selling back and forth to each other. That is what seems to be happening at present: there are no new buyers.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

One problem I have with this is the assumption that big miners are in it for BTC and not fiat. I don't know everyone's motives but I am sure that for some it is an opportunistic business model (ie buy ASIC's, mine, sell, profit). As such what gives is price and it's a race to the bottom in terms of who has the cheapest electricity. Hardware is a sunk cost now, so it makes sense to continue to mine as long as your electicity costs less than than you can sell the BTC for, even if that means just minimising losses (on sunk costs), for all those miners whose goal is not to accumulate BTC.

We hear many times that miners will just hoard or switch off and buy instead. IMO only those that are true believers and not in it for fiat will do so. The rest will get what they can out of their equipment while they can. Many a bad investment decision has been made in the past and will be in the future in many industries. Why this mythical illusion that BTC is so different?

It looks very much like mining bubble to me

EDIT : In conclusion is it not a perfectly reasonable proposition that difficulty could nosedive to match current price as inefficient miners who are in it for fiat simply switch off their hardware at some point and exit the game or wait for their equipment to become profitable again, if ever? The assumption that they will simply buy BTC instead seems deeply flawed. Meanwhile the BTC inflation rate (supply) will remain constant. In the absence of new demand where does price go ?

I agree that the idea that miners 'start buying' is deeply flawed but when mining becomes unprofitable they will stop mining, supply will be reduced and the price will stabilise.  Is this not part of the big "Satoshi Plan" of checks and balances for the functioning of BTC anyway; at the moment we have a confluence of negative factors: too much supply and negative sentiment due to Gox, Neo et al.

When the miners stop the flow of coins the price will find equilibrium and sentiment will return with a stable price.

Simples.

No ... until the next halving, supply is a constant no matter how many miners mine or what the hash rate is. The unprofitable miners will stop mining, maybe, but that has no effect on the BTC inflation/emission rate, which remains a constant until the next halving regardless of how many miners there are. Whatever the hash rate, the same number of BTC will be mined in the same time (excluding small variance between difficulty adjustments). This is a fundamental part of the BTC protocol - the emission rate is a constant until the 'halvings'


Supply is fixed in this equation, re how many BTC are mined. The variables are difficulty and hash rate, but these have no effect on supply, just on profitability of miners.

If every other miner shut down and you and I could mine the (approx) 3600 BTC per day on laptops once the difficulty rapidly adjusted downwards.

Sure, the network would be massively open to a 51% attack, but I am taking it to en extreme to demonstrate what I believe is a poorly understood function of the BTC supply/demand equilibrium

We'd better get the entire 21M of the buggers mined then and get things simplified then.

And therein lies the problem ... the emission rate is mapped out in advance and an intrinsic part of the protocol ... no way to speed it up without a hard fork. Actually, speeding it up would make things worse right now. Hence the focus on the block reward halving in 2016 (from 25 to 12.5 BTC per block I believe) as a catalyst for the next rally ... LESS SUPPLY !!

Well then, we're screwed.  If these big mining operations don't believe BTC is worth anything as an investment and simply want quick USD profits (or as has been suggested are using it as a way of getting funds out of China) then we are going to have an over-supply which will lead to even lower prices and even fewer people buying or using.  Another year of this and I can't see there being any positive sentiment around BTC.

you think all the bitcoin market put together can't handle 25 BTC every ten mins?

speculation is the thing that makes all these other things completely irrelevant to price.

Clearly it can't.  

Pretty much everything is irrelevant to you with regard to BTC Adam, and while I'm very happy you have such great faith in it, its important to realise that most people clearly have the inverse opinion.

I recall Jorge made a prediction long, long ago that as BTC dwindled in price the market would comprise of fewer and fewer adherents, desperately selling back and forth to each other. That is what seems to be happening at present: there are no new buyers.

the simple truth is bitcoin becomes widely accepted, some kind of new "gold standard"  "global reserve currency", then i'm right,  pretty much everything is irrelevant.

the market will start to turn over 10% of it supply daily and price will be rock solid and boring as fuck.

[igl00]

i think it maytake a year to get price back

[JayJuanGee]

<350   - 91 (59.1%)
>350   - 63 (40.9%)


until we see such statistics , so many bulls 41% the price will keep going down

perhaps if only 10-20% bulls left the price will start rising again

We do have a chinese subforum https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=30.0

Also, please buy a new keyboard, your SHIFT key and some other keys seem to be "out of order".

Just a reminder for everybody who can't speak English and has a broken keyboard...

My ALL CAPS gets stuck on certain words... funny that!!!   

[hyphymikey]

do you believe 2015 will be a good year for btc?

i think 2016 will be " the year of bitcoin. "

after this bear is done

we'll have CHEAP coins for a full year easy

this bear is insane

That's quite bearish Adam. I would love to fill my wallet with "cheap" coins for another year. I don't think the Bulls will wait that long though, their will be at least another pump by then.

Although I do believe 2016 and on there will not be a bear in sight.

[noobtrader]

some troll buying at 323 selling at 333...   

[derpinheimer]

Dem dumps

[adamstgBit]

[nanobrain]

some troll buying at 323 selling at 333...  

YEah,, those trolls making profit....goddam them.

[nanobrain]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

Hard times indeed. And this is only my first year

[JayJuanGee]

On the other side of things.. Why would whales (traders) leave BTC market? There is a huge amount of money to be made in BTC so why leave.

They aren't leaving, just selling now to buy more later.

Source? Other than your hopes, delusions and fantasies?

I thought this is a speculation thread. If you're looking for sources here you are definitely lost in the wrong section.

EvilPanda:  Your conclusion, here, is fucked up.  Speculation does NOT mean that you can say whatever the fuck you want.

Link?? What is your source about what does speculation mean?

Gnode:  I provided a rationale in my post that you clipped.. you understand that in making any kind of claim there is logic and there is evidence... that assist us to arrive at conclusions (and/or claims that we make).  When we make claims, usually there is a combination of both logic and evidence  but it is NOT necessary to have both logic and evidence for every case that a poster makes.  Also, sometimes when the claims are NOT controversial, posters may NOT even need to provide either logic or evidence for their claim(s). 

  Hopefully my explanation here makes sense for you, to the extent that you may possibly be interested in any kind of meaningful discussion of the subject matter?   

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I don't know how to post my Putin eats bitcoin meme...

[derpinheimer]

Just looking at the daily chart (stamp): out of the last 28 days (not including today) 21 have been 'red' days.

I'm struggling to find a period in BTC trading worse -- and I've been looking at 2011 and June - August 2013.

I find it crazy that there hasnt been a single bulltrap in over 2 weeks of pure downtrend.

-30+% in 30 days and seemingly no panic about missing the train...

Very bad? Or just a very overdue trap? I cant see how $400 wont be revisited before $300 falls, but I said $355 or so was a bounce point yesterday and yet here we are.

[Adrian-x]

I don't know how to post my Putin eats bitcoin meme...

Try do it with sensitive consideration for his feelings.

[JayJuanGee]

<350   - 91 (59.1%)
>350   - 63 (40.9%)


until we see such statistics , so many bulls 41% the price will keep going down

perhaps if only 10-20% bulls left the price will start rising again

I don't agree the price will be dumped 2x more times before it go up.

Must be so awesome to be able to look into the future. You must be so rich.

"Must be so awesome to be able to look into the future."

Says the guy who claims he knows it all? and constantly "tells the future"

give me a break

(edit- I don't mind people speculating on the future, it is just the constant "you guys are idiots it has done this for x months, it wil always continue to do x, really shrooms, you have no right to give other people shit on here for what they say, you and a few others just repeat the same thing over and over and over too.. really.. )

Give the kid a break, it's not his fault that he's born a retard. 

s/he or it was born a birdie dog or a doggie birdie, so s/he / it has limit intellectual capacities (accordingly, needs to stay on the same theme, otherwise will get lost)