490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August

[Dalkore]

Check it out:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

China-based Forum Discussion:

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2207

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.  Hope you understand how this mining will play out.  


Thoughts?
-Dalkore

[nebulus]

Cool beans...

[rograz]

anything below 1500TH at years end would be a disappointment, hopefully we can push 2-3 peta with some luck!

[pizza]

Check it out:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

China-based Forum Discussion:

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2207&mobile=yes

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.  Hope you understand how this mining will play out.   


Thoughts?
-Dalkore

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

[Dalkore]

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

Just on these chips it will go to 20 million when they get all online.

[minternj]

Pending on putting the chips onto some kind of pcb and mining with it. Id give that till 2014 before we see that.

[Bicknellski]

One chip at time... one chip at a time. You will see some of this potential hash start coming in about 3 to 4 months. This is the WAVE... forget BFL, Avalon or ASICminer... it will be open source that will really expand Bitcoin and secure it's future. I can't wait to see the next chip something a lot smaller and lot more energy efficient. This is going to be some ride that the DIY community has been waiting for.

[Big Time Coin]

the link does not work to the chinese forum.  Could you post a better link or cut and paste the conversation?  Is it speculation or one of the Avalon team disclosing something?

[pizza]

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

Just on these chips it will go to 20 million when they get all online.

that's not to bad

[Dalkore]

the link does not work to the chinese forum.  Could you post a better link or cut and paste the conversation?  Is it speculation or one of the Avalon team disclosing something?

Fixed, sorry.  That was a mobile link.

[PeZ]

It means I wont have to worry about Gold sellers in MMOs, because they will all be in the Bitcoin business! The value will be seriously deflated. It's time to cash out.

[peetah]

Translation time!

Original:

七彩神仙鱼：很有意思的一个现象，南瓜张芯片收款地址可以追踪，从目前的情况来看，目前已售出50W片芯片，折合算力140T，预计将在8月份增加150T+算力，元芳你怎么看？ https://blockchain.info/address/zh-cn/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

RainbowAngelFish: A very interesting phenomenon, pumpkin (known alias of NGZhang) chip payment address can be tracked from the receiving address, currently the have sold 500k chips, equivalent to 140T, 150T+ hashrate is expected to increase in August. YuanFang how do you see the situation?

---

Note: RainbowAngelFish is the resident mining guru of the Chinese boards.

[organofcorti]

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

Just on these chips it will go to 20 million when they get all online.

that's not to bad

Difficulty will be approximately hashrate/2^32*600. So if by the end of August you're expecting 150 Thps on top of the already expected 500 Thps (including bitfountain's 200Thps) then difficulty will be: 650e12/2^32*600 = 90803951

So difficulty will be closer to 91 million at that point.

[erk]

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

Just on these chips it will go to 20 million when they get all online.

that's not to bad

Difficulty will be approximately hashrate/2^32*600. So if by the end of August you're expecting 150 Thps on top of the already expected 500 Thps (including bitfountain's 200Thps) then difficulty will be: 650e12/2^32*600 = 90803951

So difficulty will be closer to 91 million at that point.

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a coin every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them.

[organofcorti]

What kind of difficulty does that equate too?

Just on these chips it will go to 20 million when they get all online.

that's not to bad

Difficulty will be approximately hashrate/2^32*600. So if by the end of August you're expecting 150 Thps on top of the already expected 500 Thps (including bitfountain's 200Thps) then difficulty will be: 650e12/2^32*600 = 90803951

So difficulty will be closer to 91 million at that point.

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a block every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them.

If you solved a block every three days, that would be a 9 day ROI for most people since each block is worth 25btc.

At a difficulty of 91 million, 66Ghps will earn you about 0.044 btc in three days.

[peetah]

Here's the rest of the translation of replies.  As it is not the first post, sorry if I am being sloppy and editing off google translate!

沙发 zshsust 只看他
谁先收货和谁先造出矿机是关键 - Whoever first receives chips and first assembles mining machine is the key
板凳 whutrat308 只看他
当前应该是65T？不考虑蝴蝶，挖矿效率是现在的1/4，还能接受 - Should 65T? Not consider butterflies, mining efficiency is now 1/4, but also to accept
地板 cong1744 只看他
相信中国制造的速度 - I believe in the speed of made in China!
5# jack.song 只看他
有150T！- There are 150T!
6# jack.song 只看他
有150T！- There are 150T!
7# mylittlematong 只看他
很明显 2批不发货就是为了卖芯片 - Obviously batch 2 non-delivery is to sell the chip
8# asg99 只看他
希望二批三批不会赔钱 - Hope that the second installment of three batches will not lose money
9# asg99 只看他
希望二批三批不会赔钱 - Hope that the second installment of three batches will not lose money
10# Wayne_Chang 只看他
原来2批不发货是因为忙着卖芯片了啊！ - Original batch delivery is busy selling chips!
11# ruohongzhao 只看他
！！！150T！！！！ - ! ! ! 150T! ! ! !
12# 叶-Zell 只看他
说明订了蝴蝶和avalon的人都得去死了。。。
13# hiyung 只看他
第2批应该还能小赚,第3批基本就是回本了,买加价二手的我看困难了
14# speeditcert 只看他
买芯片能给技术支持吗？芯片的资料公布l吗？再说了，卖芯片赚钱还是卖设备赚钱啊？看来南瓜并不缺钱啊！还是说准备忽悠另外一批人的资金，告诉他们卖芯片了，但先付款后等货？
15# speeditcert 只看他
买芯片能给技术支持吗？芯片的资料公布l吗？再说了，卖芯片赚钱还是卖设备赚钱啊？看来南瓜并不缺钱啊！还是说准备忽悠另外一批人的资金，告诉他们卖芯片了，但先付款后等货？
16# 彬彬 只看他
大家不用怕。会有疯子为了利益，对工厂发动袭击的。。。。或者，如果某个地方聚集了极大量算力的时候，也可以直接或间接攻击那个地方，比如人为停电。。。先静静堆设备不运算，然后让大量大的对手停机一段时间，自己就爆发出来抢这段时间的币。
17# dudufish 只看他
人民币付款的还不知道有多少呢，有没有类似方法能查出来？

Sorry folks, times up, gotta catch a plane, don't have time to finish the rest of the translation...

[Dalkore]

The arms races is in full swing.   Hope you can stay in the kitchen.

[HorseRider]

So, don't trust Avalon's magic formula to estimate the difficulty anymore. 

[Anvi]

490k? They've sold 3 batches, total 1.5k units.. Though I don't know how many actual chips each unit contains..

[peetah]

43,142 bitcoins and counting, we're over 160T now...

... continuing with where I left of:

12# 叶-Zell 只看他
说明订了蝴蝶和avalon的人都得去死了。。。 - This means those who ordered butterfly or avalon will be killed
13# hiyung 只看他
第2批应该还能小赚,第3批基本就是回本了,买加价二手的我看困难了 - 2nd batch should make a little money. 3rd batch is basically breakeven. Premiums paid for second hand should have trouble.
14# speeditcert 只看他
买芯片能给技术支持吗？芯片的资料公布l吗？再说了，卖芯片赚钱还是卖设备赚钱啊？看来南瓜并不缺钱啊！还是说准备忽悠另外一批人的资金，告诉他们卖芯片了，但先付款后等货？- Is there tech support for chip buyers? Will chip details be made public? Also, isn't selling machines more profitable than selling chips? It seems Avalon do not need money anymore! Or are they ignoring the needs of some customers, by telling them they are selling chips, but still ask for pre-order payment? (sorry, this guy is hella confusing)
15# speeditcert 只看他
买芯片能给技术支持吗？芯片的资料公布l吗？再说了，卖芯片赚钱还是卖设备赚钱啊？看来南瓜并不缺钱啊！还是说准备忽悠另外一批人的资金，告诉他们卖芯片了，但先付款后等货？
16# 彬彬 只看他
大家不用怕。会有疯子为了利益，对工厂发动袭击的。。。。或者，如果某个地方聚集了极大量算力的时候，也可以直接或间接攻击那个地方，比如人为停电。。。先静静堆设备不运算，然后让大量大的对手停机一段时间，自己就爆发出来抢这段时间的币。 - No need to fear everybody.  There are some insane people who will attack the factory.  Or maybe wait for the big hashing sites to show up on the map... attack the mining sites... and then come out with their own hashing machines.
17# dudufish 只看他
人民币付款的还不知道有多少呢，有没有类似方法能查出来？- There is no indication of how many chips have been paid for in RMB. Is there a similar method of finding out?