490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August

[Bogart]

The TeraHash issue is going to be pretty insignificant compared to a sudden future closure of MtGox by one or more governments.

Agreed that the centralized exchanges (MTGox in particular) are a huge weak point in the current economy.

We've seen trouble manifest time and again when a major exchange has a major problem, yet the situation hasn't changed much (yet).

[Viceroy]

so help define the next mt gox

[Vagnavs]

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a coin every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them.

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

[Big Time Coin]

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a coin every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them.

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

So let's analyze your statement "difficulty will go up about 10X by August":

Let's make it by September because let's face it none of the players have met their self-made deadlines strictly so far.

Current Global Hashrate: 65 TH/s
Current Difficulty: 9.0 m

By August September:
Avalon batch 2 + 3: 1200 X 65 GH/s = 78 TH/s
Avalon raw chip increase: 500k X 282 MH/s = 141 TH/s
Big Time Coin hashrate increase: 500 X 96 GH/s = 48 TH/s
BFL hashrate increase (wild guess) = 50 - 100 TH/s
ASICMINER hashrate increase = 50 - 200 TH/s

Total hashrate increase: 367 - 567 TH/s

Difficulty after adjustment in September:

(9/65) X (367) = 50.8 m
to
(9/65) X (567) = 78.5 m

Or an increase of 5.6 X current to 8.7 X current difficulty.

Also, people will switch off their GPU miners and FPGA miners around this time or soon thereafter, mitigating the difficulty increase for September - December.  And there are no new technologies on the horizon that will exponentially increase difficulty thereafter, it will grow linearly. So while Avalon's difficulty calculation of doubling every month seems accurate for the next 3 months, it will not double any more after that and revert to more linear, less exponential growth.

So your Batch #3 avalon, assuming a cost of 100 Bitcoin and a hashrate of 96 GH/s, recieved in June or July, could potentially break even in 2 or 3 months.  Definitely buy and hold, you will find no better ROI anywhere.

[mrb]

I was wondering when/if someone would analyze the blockchain for payments

I still say wallet total does not mean jack shit for the amount of chips bought. All speculation, could be any number of reasons for the BT to be in there. Only avalon knows.

1. Almost all payments (with the exception of less than 800 BTC total) are exact multiples of the cost of one batch of chips (780.7 or 782.1 BTC: different shipping costs for different parts of the world).

2. I know the people behind some of these orders.

So yes, prepare for at least 530k chips or 150 Thash/s to hit the network soon. What else did you expect? This Avalon OEM chip sale is by far the largest and cheapest ASIC investment option available in the immediate future.

[Dalkore]

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.

So in August we will have many of those:

Relevant interview with BFL buyers:
http://youtu.be/_ERE4uiufqE

Dude you have to stop with the video.  I literally am going to choke from laughing.   

[maxmint]

Relevant interview with BFL buyers:
http://youtu.be/_ERE4uiufqE

Dude you have to stop with the video.  I literally am going to choke from laughing.   

I hope you have subtitles on

[minternj]

I was wondering when/if someone would analyze the blockchain for payments

I still say wallet total does not mean jack shit for the amount of chips bought. All speculation, could be any number of reasons for the BT to be in there. Only avalon knows.

1. Almost all payments (with the exception of less than 800 BTC total) are exact multiples of the cost of one batch of chips (780.7 or 782.1 BTC: different shipping costs for different parts of the world).

2. I know the people behind some of these orders.

So yes, prepare for at least 530k chips or 150 Thash/s to hit the network soon. What else did you expect? This Avalon OEM chip sale is by far the largest and cheapest ASIC investment option available in the immediate future.

Ah good catch there. Someone who does math, unlike me.

[Vagnavs]

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a coin every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them.

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

So let's analyze your statement "difficulty will go up about 10X by August":

Let's make it by September because let's face it none of the players have met their self-made deadlines strictly so far.

Current Global Hashrate: 65 TH/s
Current Difficulty: 9.0 m

By August September:
Avalon batch 2 + 3: 1200 X 65 GH/s = 78 TH/s
Avalon raw chip increase: 500k X 282 MH/s = 141 TH/s
Big Time Coin hashrate increase: 500 X 96 GH/s = 48 TH/s
BFL hashrate increase (wild guess) = 50 - 100 TH/s
ASICMINER hashrate increase = 50 - 200 TH/s

Total hashrate increase: 367 - 567 TH/s

Difficulty after adjustment in September:

(9/65) X (367) = 50.8 m
to
(9/65) X (567) = 78.5 m

Or an increase of 5.6 X current to 8.7 X current difficulty.

Also, people will switch off their GPU miners and FPGA miners around this time or soon thereafter, mitigating the difficulty increase for September - December.  And there are no new technologies on the horizon that will exponentially increase difficulty thereafter, it will grow linearly. So while Avalon's difficulty calculation of doubling every month seems accurate for the next 3 months, it will not double any more after that and revert to more linear, less exponential growth.

So your Batch #3 avalon, assuming a cost of 100 Bitcoin and a hashrate of 96 GH/s, recieved in June or July, could potentially break even in 2 or 3 months.  Definitely buy and hold, you will find no better ROI anywhere.

thank you for taking the time to give your detailed analysis. Does everyone agree with these numbers? Are they too low or high..
Regards,
Brian

[John Self]

Does everyone agree with these numbers? Are they too low or high..
Regards,
Brian

Hi Brian

I second the thanks for an great analysis. Here is another thread with a link to a detailed analysis, and a prediction table. The author thinks difficulty will be slightly lower in August, but they do not say anything about September.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.0

[Viceroy]

^^Where the author concludes the difficulty is going to approach 1 billion, unfortunately he cannot determine how quickly (bottom of thread shows 700 million).

[qbits]

Lol, the current difficulty is what, 8.9million? So at 91mill your 66GHs Avalon is going to do a coin every 3 days. So much for the ROI. At least they will be dirt cheap if they keep to their pricing formula. They will probably not get enough return on that formula to keep making them...

difficulty will go up about 10X by August... So if you have a second batch Avalon, there will have potentially a short time to make good money and then it may be a couple dollars a day. Depending on the BTC price.. So do you buy, sell or hold? Have an Avalon batch #2 and #3. Any feedback would be great (please don't pm me about selling them)!

What do you think will happen with btc price in august? On one hand avalon and other asic miners will want to sell whatever they mine to pay off investment, on the other asic manufactiorers will need to sell most of the 42k btc accounts to pay for costs. On top of that the shrinking population of miners may make merchants and investors more wary of the crypto currency whose transaction confirmation is concentrated in the hands of few. Hash power concentration makes btc weaker not stronger. The conclusion sems straightforward dosen't it?

[Viceroy]

What do you think will happen with btc price in august?

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

[organofcorti]

What do you think will happen with btc price in august?

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

[qbits]

What do you think will happen with btc price in august?

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

Agreed. But point is not in the price per se. It is the fact that loss of trust as number of miners winds down would create a reinforcing downward spiral of trust and yes price that threatnes to destroy this experiment. I would not say i am a doo.sday prophet but this is really worring.

[Viceroy]

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

lol.  damnit.  Now predict the future seer!   

[qbits]

What do you think will happen with btc price in august?

This question is unanswerable and belongs in economic speculation.  There is no correlation between mining difficulty and the price of the coin, price is determined by human demand which is in-calculate-able.

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

Unlike with gpu asic  has not other useful purpose. If diff is too high, people will get rid of them and never come back. Consolidation of hash power is ineviteable.

[Viceroy]

Unlike with gpu asic  has not other useful purpose. If diff is too high, people will get rid of them and never come back. Consolidation of hash power is ineviteable.

Unless you use a different algorithm...  See here.  I agree this hashing power may spell the end of bitcoin as we know it.  Disagree?  Come talk to me about it.

[Dalkore]

Thank you for the detailed analysis as well.

[organofcorti]

Yes, there is. Difficulty absolutely correlates with previous prices.

lol.  damnit.  Now predict the future seer!   

I see a time when I start to lose my sense of humour, VR