Long-term trend is up

[move_zig]

The rally we experienced at the start of this year is nothing like the 2011 bubble.

From the start of April to the end of May, 2011 BTC/USD rose by 41% per week (or about 5700000000% per year).

The rally that started in January has risen about 14% per week. We started rising too fast near the end of March and we experienced a correction. I think we're back to the 14% weekly growth trend now.

[MAbtc]

No. Don't think so. 

[blackreplica]

Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.

Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?

[move_zig]

Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.

Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?

It depends on how I draw the lines, but if I go from the trough to peak for the four-week period leading up to the correction I get 62% weekly growth.

[blackreplica]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

[ElectricMucus]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

[move_zig]

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

No one said it was a small amount.

I think we're back to following that trend now though.

[ElectricMucus]

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

No one said it was a small amount.

I think we're back to following that trend now though.

You can think whatever you like. 

[blackreplica]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

I'm not advocating 14% ad infinitum. The sharper the growth rate, the faster the bubble rise and pop. the 2011 bubble, at 41% took about 3 months to pop. The recent 62% bubble popped in one month, or 1/3 the time. Assuming the relationship is between bubble magnitude and time-to-pop follows these parameters in a linear fashion, we're looking at a time window of as long as a year before we see some sort of change in the long term growth pattern. It may not be going on forever but if this rate holds we may see it for some time, and that means there is money to be made for quite a while

*insert standard ceteris paribus disclaimer here

[ElectricMucus]

I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore.  



If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

[MAbtc]

14% weekly growth? Sustainable for what period? LOL!

[lebing]

I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore.  



If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

log.


scale.

[ManBearPig]

The trend you talk about is what I've been charting and discussing. Here's my latest:



Subsuming the April Crash into the trend is a little difficult but the current price action (or lack of it) almost looks as if it might want to rejoin the Jan-Mar 10 week period of 1.8% daily growth.

You are right in that there was an inflection point late in March which set us on unsustainable growth but it's amazing how stable the 1.8% daily trend was.

[ElectricMucus]

log.


scale.

un-

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able.

[lebing]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

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able.

why, exactly?

[move_zig]

un-

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able.

why, exactly?

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I assume it's because the linear-scale chart looks scary.

[ElectricMucus]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

why, exactly?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181440.0

[blackreplica]

14% weekly growth? Sustainable for what period? LOL!

Look at ManBearPig's post. It has sustained itself since 9 Jan 2013, almost 5 months.

[SlipperySlope]

Yes the long term trend is up and its awesome.

Short term, I believe is the collapse of bubble 2. The chart shows that optimal purchases are not made on the way up in a bubble. Buy and hold investors should be patient if there is a bubble and buy months after the peak, IMO.

[Rygon]

OTC markets trading in Facebook shares were probably just as crazy in value appreciation in the early years. Facebook went from not existing to being worth $15B in less than four years.

[lebing]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

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why, exactly?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181440.0

Am I supposed to take that troll attempt seriously?

[anu]

If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Last burst, most people expected Bitcoin to die and never to come back. This time, everyone expects a 3rd, and much bigger bubble than the previous 2. If this really is a dead cat bounce you may loose 60% on the way down. But if you sell off right now and tomorrow Cyprus 2.0 happens in Malta, or possibly in Spain, you miss the train.

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

[Gordonium]

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

This.

[pinger]

If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Last burst, most people expected Bitcoin to die and never to come back. This time, everyone expects a 3rd, and much bigger bubble than the previous 2. If this really is a dead cat bounce you may loose 60% on the way down. But if you sell off right now and tomorrow Cyprus 2.0 happens in Malta, or possibly in Spain, you miss the train.

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

Lets see what news have for us our "beloved leader", Mariano, el corto, Rajoy in the next few days. Spain maybe wake up and move money to Bitcoin.

[SlipperySlope]

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

This sentiment is a great example of why bubbles take so long to completely collapse. Losing positions refuse to sell because of fear! Its only when that last willing seller gives up that the bottom is reached. So would you risk 90% of your gains - because that was the situation in bitcoin bubble 1. Traders bought at $17 on the way down to $2.

[ElectricMucus]

Am I supposed to take that troll attempt seriously?

So you are taking the easy way out: Instead of tackling my arguments you accuse me of trolling.
Cool bro, not that this is anything new. 

[Gatekeeper]

accuse you of trolling?

every single person who reads this forum knows all you do is troll all day long, you have nothing better to do with your time.

[anu]

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

This sentiment is a great example of why bubbles take so long to completely collapse. Losing positions refuse to sell because of fear! Its only when that last willing seller gives up that the bottom is reached. So would you risk 90% of your gains - because that was the situation in bitcoin bubble 1. Traders bought at $17 on the way down to $2.

Is it? Indeed, I bought exactly as you say. My first 10 Bitcoin at 17 and my last 5000 at 2. As you can imagine, I am quite happy with my strategy. Thanks to some good selling and buying decisions in bubble 2, I am quite willing to repeat that.

[Odalv]

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

This sentiment is a great example of why bubbles take so long to completely collapse. Losing positions refuse to sell because of fear! Its only when that last willing seller gives up that the bottom is reached. So would you risk 90% of your gains - because that was the situation in bitcoin bubble 1. Traders bought at $17 on the way down to $2.

Bitcoin at $1000 is not a bubble. There are 7B people and only 11M Bitcoins now. If 1% of people (70,000,000) will invest ($1,000 USD small part of salary) then price will go far over $6,364 USD/BTC.

And still very good speculation. There are more money invested in Facebook ($70B) ... stupid chat. :-)

[ElectricMucus]

If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Last burst, most people expected Bitcoin to die and never to come back. This time, everyone expects a 3rd, and much bigger bubble than the previous 2. If this really is a dead cat bounce you may loose 60% on the way down. But if you sell off right now and tomorrow Cyprus 2.0 happens in Malta, or possibly in Spain, you miss the train.

I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.

Cyprus didn't have any effect except making the already existing buyers buy more because they expected new buyers, which didn't happen. There are plenty of articles which already debunk this.

You are right that there is a certain level of harmony in those pump & dump cycles. But that is not something that can be analyzed with intuition.
The expectations in this forum are much different than the one the public has. And ultimately that is what matters for a bull market to re-establish itself. Potential new speculative growth potential is near nil, only the cheerleaders and the sheep which follow them are buying at these prices.
Every body else is waiting for the dead cat to stop spinning in mid air and hit the ground again.

You are on your own.

[amencon]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF_xdvn52As

[ElectricMucus]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

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able.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF_xdvn52As

That's quite romantic