If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Last burst, most people expected Bitcoin to die and never to come back. This time, everyone expects a 3rd, and much bigger bubble than the previous 2. If this really is a dead cat bounce you may loose 60% on the way down. But if you sell off right now and tomorrow Cyprus 2.0 happens in Malta, or possibly in Spain, you miss the train.
I rather risk a loosing half of my gains so far before I watch Bitcoin racing into 4-digit land without me.
Cyprus didn't have any effect except making the already existing buyers buy more because they expected new buyers, which didn't happen. There are plenty of articles which already debunk this.
You are right that there is a certain level of harmony in those pump & dump cycles. But that is not something that can be analyzed with intuition.
The expectations in this forum are much different than the one the public has. And ultimately that is what matters for a bull market to re-establish itself. Potential new speculative growth potential is near nil, only the cheerleaders and the sheep which follow them are buying at these prices.
Every body else is waiting for the dead cat to stop spinning in mid air and hit the ground again.
You are on your own.