Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[arepo]

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?"

nothing's been invalidated... yet

[1713590998]

1713590998

[seleme]

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?"

nothing's been invalidated... yet

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong

[arepo]

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?"

nothing's been invalidated... yet

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong

only made two predictions in the last 24 hours:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

neither one has been validated or falsified, but they both are falsifiable.

--arepo

[michaelGedi]

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?"

nothing's been invalidated... yet

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong

only made two predictions in the last 24 hours:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

neither one has been validated or falsified, but they both are falsifiable.

--arepo

yes, more like helpful observations and explanations for market behaviour with some possible outcomes. I do feel that most scenarios are covered, up or down, so there is no right or wrong.

I've been treating your analysis as a sort of reality check (what goes up must come down.. even a little bit), as well as a general lesson in market patterns, indicators, so on... It's more interesting observing these with a real time setting and something on the line. The most interesting thing for me is the shapes that human behaviour can cause... the visual representations of a kind of communal consciousness if you will.

I'm currently out of the "game" as I just couldn't bear (pun kind of intended) to watch the charts while I have so much work on... I'm no day trader that's for sure. I will be buying back whether the market rises or falls. Just will choose the re-entry point carefully in order to hold long, and possibly head off to Berlin for a few beers in the mean time

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/video/2013/apr/26/bitcoin-currency-moves-offline-berlin-video


Keep up the good work arepo very helpful and interesting mate

[arepo]

Keep up the good work arepo very helpful and interesting mate

cheers

-===-

short-term oscillators still say 'oversold'. amazing how much buying pressure is holding the price up, with all of this selling volume -- more evidence of a bottom.

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

$120 should hold for the weekend, and while a sustained rally is probably out of the question for the short-term, i expect consolidation around this key price point for at least that long.

--arepo

[GigaCoin]

Great, thanks for the constant updates. Although i'm no expert at chart reading, i'm just beginning to learn and it always helps reading your charts.

[arepo]

Great, thanks for the constant updates. Although i'm no expert at chart reading, i'm just beginning to learn and it always helps reading your charts.

i always appreciate the appreciation

we bounced  where are the buyers?

they've arrived



--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Did they bring some friends, or did they immediately die on the battlefield?

[arepo]

Did they bring some friends, or did they immediately die on the battlefield?

it's still the weekend, so i'm not expecting any serious action, but that counter thrust was realllly important in breaking the downward momentum we were picking up, and it will contribute to a possible high-volume doji when the hourly candle closes.

now for some accountability:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

2. is clearly falsified.
see this post for details

my adjusted expectations given today's price action are as follows:

$120 should hold for the weekend, and while a sustained rally is probably out of the question for the short-term, i expect consolidation around this key price point for at least that long.

--arepo

[arepo]

short term update:



so, we're nearing a breakout of the largest triangle, just in time for Monday! more evidence for this in the DPO and TRIX oscillators:

*all charts are 10-day hourly scale*

-===-



-===-

but which way? short-term indicators suggest a bullish picture:

-===-



-===-

i haven't annotated any of these, so for those unfamiliar with these indicators, feel free to ask for clarification regarding my interpretations.

--arepo

[Frozenlock]

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

[arepo]

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

yes, but not necessarily. this has been brought up many times in this thread. i really don't put much stock in the 'standard intuition' of direction based upon the shape of the triangle. it is too subjective to market conditions and is not rigorous enough. i trust directional signals from the many indicators i've tested much more.

this is also why i tried to show the triangle formations in the DPO and TRIX oscillators that are a quite different (and much more bullish) shape, because they also represent the data. price data alone can be misleading.

a brief defense of my bullish interpretation:

(1) Chaikin money flow at highs not seen since the peak at $165
(2) MACD made full recovery into positive zone for the first time since that same peak and crash, and also shows the same bullish triangle consolidation pattern.
(3) CCI and Ultimate Oscillators both show a bullish 50-line bounce during the consolidation

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

short answer -- yes, but the market seems bullish.

--arepo

[arepo]

b-b-breakout! right on schedule.

also, some not-so-rigorous musings:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

we'll seee...

-arepo

[phoenix1]

Good call Arepo 

[arepo]

Good call Arepo 

thanks 

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

[afbitcoins]

Good call Arepo 

thanks 

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

You called that pretty well! Yes I agree there's way too much bearishness, I still keep getting wierd bearish impulses myself even  hehehe.  Its a fine line between the bull and bear scenarios just now.

[arepo]

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

[phoenix1]

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

[molecular]

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

I heard triangles are trend continuation patterns. Trend before triangle start was up, so in the case at hand that was correct.

[afbitcoins]

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up