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Author Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections  (Read 14211 times)
arepo
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April 27, 2013, 02:10:15 AM
 #141

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?" Smiley

nothing's been invalidated... yet Tongue

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April 27, 2013, 02:11:13 AM
 #142

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?" Smiley

nothing's been invalidated... yet Tongue

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong Smiley

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arepo
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April 27, 2013, 02:14:35 AM
 #143

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?" Smiley

nothing's been invalidated... yet Tongue

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong Smiley

only made two predictions in the last 24 hours:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

neither one has been validated or falsified, but they both are falsifiable.

--arepo

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April 27, 2013, 12:29:58 PM
 #144

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?" Smiley

nothing's been invalidated... yet Tongue

hehe, you had so many predictions in last 24 hours you can't be wrong Smiley

only made two predictions in the last 24 hours:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

neither one has been validated or falsified, but they both are falsifiable.

--arepo


yes, more like helpful observations and explanations for market behaviour with some possible outcomes. I do feel that most scenarios are covered, up or down, so there is no right or wrong.

I've been treating your analysis as a sort of reality check (what goes up must come down.. even a little bit), as well as a general lesson in market patterns, indicators, so on... It's more interesting observing these with a real time setting and something on the line. The most interesting thing for me is the shapes that human behaviour can cause... the visual representations of a kind of communal consciousness if you will.

I'm currently out of the "game" as I just couldn't bear (pun kind of intended) to watch the charts while I have so much work on... I'm no day trader that's for sure. I will be buying back whether the market rises or falls. Just will choose the re-entry point carefully in order to hold long, and possibly head off to Berlin for a few beers in the mean time Smiley

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/video/2013/apr/26/bitcoin-currency-moves-offline-berlin-video


Keep up the good work arepo very helpful and interesting mate

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arepo
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April 27, 2013, 07:43:10 PM
 #145

Keep up the good work arepo very helpful and interesting mate

cheers Smiley

-===-

short-term oscillators still say 'oversold'. amazing how much buying pressure is holding the price up, with all of this selling volume -- more evidence of a bottom.

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

$120 should hold for the weekend, and while a sustained rally is probably out of the question for the short-term, i expect consolidation around this key price point for at least that long.

--arepo

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Giga


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April 27, 2013, 07:57:26 PM
 #146

Great, thanks for the constant updates. Although i'm no expert at chart reading, i'm just beginning to learn and it always helps reading your charts.

arepo
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April 27, 2013, 08:05:41 PM
 #147

Great, thanks for the constant updates. Although i'm no expert at chart reading, i'm just beginning to learn and it always helps reading your charts.

i always appreciate the appreciation Cheesy

we bounced  Cheesy where are the buyers?

they've arrived



--arepo

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April 27, 2013, 08:27:55 PM
 #148

Did they bring some friends, or did they immediately die on the battlefield?
arepo
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April 27, 2013, 08:33:49 PM
 #149

Did they bring some friends, or did they immediately die on the battlefield?

it's still the weekend, so i'm not expecting any serious action, but that counter thrust was realllly important in breaking the downward momentum we were picking up, and it will contribute to a possible high-volume doji when the hourly candle closes.

now for some accountability:

1. $120 will hold in the mid-term
2. we will breakout up

2. is clearly falsified.
see this post for details

my adjusted expectations given today's price action are as follows:

$120 should hold for the weekend, and while a sustained rally is probably out of the question for the short-term, i expect consolidation around this key price point for at least that long.

--arepo

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arepo
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April 29, 2013, 01:37:57 AM
 #150

short term update:



so, we're nearing a breakout of the largest triangle, just in time for Monday! more evidence for this in the DPO and TRIX oscillators:

*all charts are 10-day hourly scale*

-===-



-===-

but which way? short-term indicators suggest a bullish picture:

-===-



-===-

i haven't annotated any of these, so for those unfamiliar with these indicators, feel free to ask for clarification regarding my interpretations.

--arepo

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April 29, 2013, 01:40:39 AM
 #151

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?
arepo
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April 29, 2013, 01:54:53 AM
 #152

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

yes, but not necessarily. this has been brought up many times in this thread. i really don't put much stock in the 'standard intuition' of direction based upon the shape of the triangle. it is too subjective to market conditions and is not rigorous enough. i trust directional signals from the many indicators i've tested much more.

this is also why i tried to show the triangle formations in the DPO and TRIX oscillators that are a quite different (and much more bullish) shape, because they also represent the data. price data alone can be misleading.

a brief defense of my bullish interpretation:

(1) Chaikin money flow at highs not seen since the peak at $165
(2) MACD made full recovery into positive zone for the first time since that same peak and crash, and also shows the same bullish triangle consolidation pattern.
(3) CCI and Ultimate Oscillators both show a bullish 50-line bounce during the consolidation

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

short answer -- yes, but the market seems bullish.

--arepo

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arepo
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April 29, 2013, 09:04:24 AM
 #153

b-b-breakout! right on schedule.

also, some not-so-rigorous musings:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

we'll seee...

-arepo

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April 29, 2013, 11:09:33 AM
 #154

Good call Arepo  Wink

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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April 29, 2013, 11:29:39 AM
 #155

Good call Arepo  Wink

thanks  Grin

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

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April 29, 2013, 02:36:44 PM
 #156

Good call Arepo  Wink

thanks  Grin

it's Monday money -- i really don't understand all the bearishness around here....

that being said i'm anticipating an irresponsible and overzealous rise followed by a correction and then consolidation from there. i'm not sure we're yet ready for higher prices, but we definitely need a bullish correction to that panic selling we saw last week.

--arepo

p.s. keep an eye on the quoted text a few messages above, if we see a similar outcome it will be the second documented confirmation of the fractal hypothesis.

You called that pretty well! Yes I agree there's way too much bearishness, I still keep getting wierd bearish impulses myself even  hehehe.  Its a fine line between the bull and bear scenarios just now.
arepo
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April 29, 2013, 04:18:04 PM
 #157

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

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April 29, 2013, 04:26:01 PM
 #158

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  Cheesy
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

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April 29, 2013, 05:05:39 PM
 #159

Isn't a downward triangle bearish?

I heard triangles are trend continuation patterns. Trend before triangle start was up, so in the case at hand that was correct.

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April 29, 2013, 11:11:29 PM
 #160

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up  Wink
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