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Author Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections  (Read 14211 times)
ironstove
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April 26, 2013, 07:27:51 AM
 #121

If 120 holds a week from now then I'll admit I was wrong. I have bids set to buy back in at 142.3 after selling 154 so I'm OK with this.

However if the 120 wall is breached to the 110 territory...

Anyway, this is the speculation forum after all.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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April 26, 2013, 07:30:00 AM
 #122

Tsss, so doom and gloom.
Let us at least touch $120, will you?  Wink

But I admit that 5k @ $121 and 5k @ $120 isn't that much.
So much tension in the air! Weeeeee!

i'm getting more and more suspicious of that never happening as time goes on...

i feel that we are short-term oversold, investor confidence at a local low, etc. most people went to sleep, put their bids at $90 -- hah! the market moves to minimize profits. we'll rebound before the bulk of the money gets back into the market for this reason, if we don't break under $120 soon, and the ask depth didn't exactly fill in...

all i can say is i wish your bid at $120 good luck  Cheesy

--arepo

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April 26, 2013, 07:32:51 AM
 #123

I want to lick 119$ and i want to lick it today. Shall we ? Cheesy
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April 26, 2013, 07:43:45 AM
 #124

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again. Tongue

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April 26, 2013, 07:47:11 AM
 #125

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again. Tongue

It will be today  ? i like watchins you loosing money Cheesy
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April 26, 2013, 07:53:48 AM
 #126

Too bad for you I'm only making money from the panic sell offs, and you're not getting my cheap coins because I don't sell low. Tongue

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April 26, 2013, 07:59:29 AM
 #127

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again. Tongue

haha they'll think what they do no matter what i say, don't worry Tongue

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April 26, 2013, 04:57:01 PM
 #128

Quote
i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.
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April 26, 2013, 08:06:20 PM
 #129

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i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.

i don't think it's quite fair to call that a 'sucker's rally' -- it wanted to happen, the market was oversold when we started out.

as for selling as the theme -- i rather have the feeling that after yesterdays volume, there aren't many more coins left to sell  Wink

--arepo

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arepo
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April 26, 2013, 08:51:35 PM
 #130



-===-

this is a pretty big moment for this baby bull... if we can break out of this range it'd be the first real evidence of a resumption of the uptrend -- right now we're still stuck in a bearish consolidation pennant.

edit:

further evidence for criticality: if we don't make major gains today we'll have a high-volume doji on the 3-day scale.

-===-


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evolve
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April 26, 2013, 10:21:06 PM
 #131

Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading this thread
arepo
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April 26, 2013, 10:33:10 PM
 #132

Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading this thread

thanks for the feedback Smiley

-===-

x-post from "Arepo's easy TA":

This--


...reminds me of these:



Thoughts?
good observation!

there is one very important difference. bearish wedges exhibit higher lows and higher highs, resulting in a general upward slope.

this triangle has a level top resistance, and we're consolidating bullishly so far. some evidence for this in this post.

--arepo

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April 26, 2013, 10:48:58 PM
 #133

When one says that we are "oversold", how do we observe this?
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April 26, 2013, 11:04:44 PM
 #134

When one says that we are "oversold", how do we observe this?

oscillators, mainly -- are you familiar with these indicators?

here's the CCI:

-===-

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

if you are not familiar, here are the basics, in brief:

oscillators roughly measure the 'momentum' of price. below the zero line is bearish (negative momentum), above is bullish. bounds which are calibrated to each unique formula are drawn to demonstrate periods of overbuying and overselling. notice how peaks in overbuying are often followed by market corrections, where the more severe the correction, the lower the oscillator drops? this allows for the use of trendlines to determine reversals. the last major correction before the crash found clear support on the zero-line -- a very bullish sign -- anticipating the next peak.

now for my annotations, and your question:

large blue spike says 'short-term oversold'. much red during the run-up could mean 'mid-term overbought', which is why many fear a downward correction at this point.

however, the zero-line crossover and then support during the consolidation is very bullish, as is the beak into the 'overbought' zone. (entering the overbought zone is bullish, leaving is bearish -- and vice versa for oversold).

hope this satisfies your question.

--arepo

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April 26, 2013, 11:08:53 PM
 #135

Very helpful, thank you!
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April 27, 2013, 12:05:31 AM
 #136


This--


Almost completed. Brace yourselves.
arepo
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April 27, 2013, 01:37:28 AM
 #137

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

50-line bounce is a little worrying... i was anticipating more buying pressure than this.

we might see a more bearish, continued consolidation as projected in this model:

-===-



-===-

but $120 should still hold for the short-term, at least.

--arepo

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April 27, 2013, 02:03:42 AM
 #138

Great thread, first time reading it. 
arepo
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April 27, 2013, 02:07:10 AM
 #139


This--


Almost completed. Brace yourselves.

we bounced  Cheesy where are the buyers?

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April 27, 2013, 02:08:24 AM
 #140

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?" Smiley

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