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Author Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections  (Read 14225 times)
arepo
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April 30, 2013, 04:51:00 AM
 #161

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  Cheesy
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink [notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all  Cheesy my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up  Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 05:26:52 AM
 #162

everyone ready for the next leg up? breakout in three... two... one...

Ready !  Cheesy
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

alcohol and greed Wink [notice the complete lack of substance or technical defense of the claim]

i was inebriated and shouldn't have really been on the forums or daytrading at all  Cheesy my bad.

passed out and sobered up, and what we're seeing now is a manifestation of this pattern:

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

im working on making fractal analysis more rigorous (specifically, more precise) because clearly we fell a little short of my target $165, but i think it's very powerful that i was able to predict the 'shape' of the price so accurately. this was to be a second test of the fractal hypothesis and i think the result can be described as: "plausible". not evidenced explicitly, yet, but i'm excited to do more work on it.

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up  Wink

as for your question, the market seems balanced right now (indicators neutral). $120 held as anticipated and i doubt we're going to see sub-$120 coins any time soon. extending the above hypothesis, i do anticipate a consolidation period in this range ($120-$150) for about another 12 hours, at least, and then perhaps some serious price movement. unless things suddenly start looking bearish (large dump, etc), that breakout should be up, because sideways is very bullish for bitcoin at this moment.

what do you guys think?

--arepo

Sounds about right to me.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 05:28:41 AM
 #163

Quote from: arepo
fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 05:37:17 AM
 #164

Quote from: arepo
fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains has expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.



I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 05:42:25 AM
 #165

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 05:51:13 AM
 #166

Quote from: arepo
fractal analysis

with all this talk about fractal analysis, i haven't really explained much what the methods consist of. for this reason, and for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

--arepo

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.



how to download this w/o having to sign up?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 05:53:37 AM
 #167

how to download this w/o having to sign up?

sorry about that... working on finding a better host right now.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 05:54:19 AM
 #168

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

testing it myself, it seems google chrome gives the 'this file may harm your computer' warning just because it is a pdf. i admit that i used a particularly ad-infested upload site -- if anyone knows of a better site, or has a server that can host the file for me, that would be helpful.

edit: is that what you were offering? i'm emailing it to you right now.
edit2: your email address appears hidden.

--arepo
Sorry, I thought it was public, I'll pm you.  I'd be happy to put it up somewhere less sketchy.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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April 30, 2013, 06:11:12 AM
 #169

yrral.net/arepo-2013-04-30.pdf

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 06:12:53 AM
 #170

for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.


thanks again, notme!

fixed the link in the original.

feedback is encouraged! Smiley

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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(👁 ͜ʖ👁) Hello there!


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April 30, 2013, 09:24:43 AM
 #171

Thanks Arepo, all the extra insight is appreciated.

[̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅] From time to time i exchange e-currencies/trade like Skrill>Paypal>Remittances>Pokerstars>Amazon GC>PaySafecard to Bitcoin. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 09:33:48 AM
 #172

we are consolidating very bullishly, and are nearing an upwards breakout:

-===-

*10-day 1-hour scale*



-===-

notes:

(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.

here's some direct price analysis:

-===-



-===-

top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".

--arepo


this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 10:44:51 AM
 #173

Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. Smiley I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.

You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?

You want me to own Bitcoins? No problem. Tongue
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April 30, 2013, 12:17:44 PM
 #174


this works, thanks!

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arepo
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this statement is false


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April 30, 2013, 12:31:52 PM
 #175

Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. Smiley I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.

You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?

i try to avoid posting price targets publicly, but the key levels here as we're just pulling out of a short downtrend are just the previous highs -- this is generally where we will encounter resistance:

-===-



-===-

$148, $162, $166

if we get past $166 this would be very bullish and we could overshoot to around $180. however, the market is overbought in the short-term so it is likely that we bounce off of $166 and correct slightly first.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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April 30, 2013, 05:11:54 PM
 #176

Never seen it touch 130$ these days: do you think that will be a strong support in this short-term downtrend ?

(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job Smiley )
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April 30, 2013, 05:19:23 PM
 #177

Never seen it touch 130$ these days: do you think that will be a strong support in this short-term downtrend ?

(new here and not used to TA, but yours seems to be a pretty good job Smiley )

it was below 130$ 2 days ago.

Take arepo with reserve though, he's all good in drawing the lines and fancy talk but when it comes to prices he's gambling just like anyone who doesn't look at charts at all. He just put it in borders where he can always say he wasn't wrong - like it will be between 120-160.

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.JINBI..

merges gold’s investment
holding value
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blockchain technology
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...T H E   G O L D E N   I C O...
.────────     WHITEPAPER     ────────.
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April 30, 2013, 06:45:24 PM
 #178

we are consolidating very bullishly, and are nearing an upwards breakout:

-===-

*10-day 1-hour scale*



-===-

notes:

(1) price following strong (3-pt) moving support
(2) Accumulation/Distribution confirms this trend
(3) CCI also confirms this trend
(4) Bullish midline crossover in the Stochastic RSI
(5) Bullish midline bounce in the Slow Stochastic Osc.

here's some direct price analysis:

-===-



-===-

top marked by high volume, consolidation marked by low volume, anticipating a spike in volume with the upwards breakout to confirm "trend continuation".

--arepo



I tend to agree with you that we are nearing a breakout. Judging by past activity, I've seen too many of these upward and steady climbs on relatively low volume, followed by a breakout to think it will be a breakdown. Now, if it had happened shortly after the fall down, and been shorter in duration, I would say it's a toss up. But, considering our normal volatility, what we are seeing with the slow climb is promising. (again, as usual)

As that guy from the bitcoin channel said, the thing that stands out is how we broke through the two high volume days, where we formed those hammer like candlestick patterns after the "crash" down. Those big red candles those first two days were on half the volume as the "hammers" were. We are basically sitting at the top of that first hammer and what appears like a support level that was formed before we exploded up.

The market, again as the bitcoin channel guy has explained, looks like it is weakening to me, if I am interpreting it correctly. The sell side is slowly creeping up and the buy side is slowly creeping down. All the while we are maintaining price. It is not a good sign but hard to interpret. Any ideas about the market?

Enjoying,
IAS

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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May 01, 2013, 12:08:10 AM
 #179

Broke out the wrong way 
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May 01, 2013, 12:12:54 AM
 #180

Again stop using triangles dammit.
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