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Author Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections  (Read 14211 times)
arepo
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this statement is false


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May 02, 2013, 06:09:45 AM
 #221

i have no idea what that block of rambling is suppose to prove, other than to convince yourself that your methods have validity. it was not clear at all what point you were trying to make, and it was irrelevant to the disucssion:

i'm sorry if it was dense. and i realize now i didn't exactly connect it to what i quoted. let me try to summarize more clearly:

"""TA can work even if the two conditions you noted are not met. i propose the following:

a trader using the methods of TA attempts to extract more information from the available price data than others who are not looking for regularities (not doing any analysis).

this creates a difference in the information available to each 'player'. this is profitable for the same reason 'insider trading' is profitable."""

i hope i was able to communicate my meaning this time.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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adamstgBit
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May 02, 2013, 06:11:41 AM
 #222

Think we will ever be on the underside of 50 again?

Thanks
yes sell your coins today and double them tomorrow. ( no way in hell... )

then buy a really big boat!  Cheesy



johnblaze
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May 02, 2013, 06:12:27 AM
 #223

i'm sorry if it was dense. and i realize now i didn't exactly connect it to what i quoted. let me try to summarize more clearly:

"""TA can work even if the two conditions you noted are not met. i propose the following:

a trader using the methods of TA attempts to extract more information from the available price data than others who are not looking for regularities (not doing any analysis).

this creates a difference in the information available to each 'player'. this is profitable for the same reason 'insider trading' is profitable."""

i hope i was able to communicate my meaning this time.

fair enough, and i would agree. my two points were only in regard to TA working as a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is what the other guy inferred with his post. if you are coming from the premise that TA is not a self-fulfilling prophecy, but rather a legitimate system of determining probable future prices, then my two points are irrelevant. my post was in response to his.

but whether it is a legitimate system is questionable (whether or not you can actually extract information that is useful in the same way as inside info is useful)
arepo
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this statement is false


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May 02, 2013, 06:12:32 AM
 #224

I'm not on a bandwagon, just tired of people coming to an analysis thread to complain about analysis  Never take any advice in these forums without a few pounds of salt.

i actually appreciate this kind of discussion, johnblaze made a good point, and showed he had thought about it critically. it just bothers me when someone comes out of the woodwork and posts a dismissive comment with no constructive criticism at all Cheesy

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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adamstgBit
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May 02, 2013, 06:13:04 AM
 #225

Think we will ever be on the underside of 50 again?

Thanks
yes sell your coins today and double them tomorrow. ( no way in hell... )

then buy a really big boat!  Cheesy

i'd love to hear what arepo thinks about this.

under 50 ever again? what are the odds Mr Spock

seleme
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May 02, 2013, 06:18:22 AM
 #226

Think we will ever be on the underside of 50 again?

Thanks
yes sell your coins today and double them tomorrow. ( no way in hell... )

then buy a really big boat!  Cheesy

i'd love to hear what arepo thinks about this.

under 50 ever again? what are the odds Mr Spock

if you're looking for "never again", Mister Supernode is your man, he has one "never again" weekly Grin

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arepo
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this statement is false


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May 02, 2013, 06:29:09 AM
 #227

i understand all of the terminology. i dont understand what point he is trying to make.

at one point he claims that prices are random and that is their nature, which is a joke of a claim. then he claims that he can find "coded" information in previous prices. confusingly, he also used similar terms when trying to spout the EMH, which is contradictory

yes, i kind of stitched together bullet points of a sort of thesis i'm trying to develop. i apologize for the disorganization.

let me try to build a bridge between the ideas you just mentioned:

the emphasis on information is because trading is a limited information game. this is separate from the price function, which is stochastic, essentially random, which is exactly why no methods of technical analysis can produce 100% confidence.

take the 'weekend dip'. once a thread about it was posted and trafficked to saturation, the effect stopped happening. why? because traders selling early friday and buying back in sunday, profited off of this information asymmetry, anticipating that others were going to sell and undercutting them.

these regularities have been shown to exist, and i do believe they violate the strong form of the EMH, which would imply that a good is at its 'true price' at all times in the marketplace. in practice this falls quite short of ideal. remember how the price doubled suddenly after a long period of consolidation a few months before the block reward halving? the suddenness of the onset of the price discovery phase suggests that the way that price-relevant information is factored into the price is far from ideal, and if you have meta-information -- information of another players' future actions -- you can undercut them profitably.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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May 02, 2013, 06:46:50 AM
 #228

Think we will ever be on the underside of 50 again?

Thanks
yes sell your coins today and double them tomorrow. ( no way in hell... )

then buy a really big boat!  Cheesy

i'd love to hear what arepo thinks about this.

under 50 ever again? what are the odds Mr Spock

i'd hate to be a talking head, but i'll put in my two cents if you insist. Tongue

imho, determining the odds of the price being at a certain point "ever again" is pretty futile. i liked ichthyos model of a gaussian curve for a model of the probability of 'ever' reaching a price point 's' standard deviations away from the present price, or the mean historical price. in this model, the probability of a price point s deviations away approaches zero as s -- > infinity, but is nonzero for all such points.

for time-scales:

short-term: unlikely
mid-term (this year): possible
long-term: see above

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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johnblaze
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May 02, 2013, 07:00:25 AM
 #229


yes, i kind of stitched together bullet points of a sort of thesis i'm trying to develop. i apologize for the disorganization.

let me try to build a bridge between the ideas you just mentioned:

cool thanks, some quick thoughts before i go to bed

Quote
the emphasis on information is because trading is a limited information game. this is separate from the price function, which is stochastic, essentially random, which is exactly why no methods of technical analysis can produce 100% confidence.

yes information is limited. if you assume the market is efficient, then you dont care if its limited because all information is reflected in price anyway. bitcoin is not that market

Quote
take the 'weekend dip'. once a thread about it was posted and trafficked to saturation, the effect stopped happening. why? because traders selling early friday and buying back in sunday, profited off of this information asymmetry, anticipating that others were going to sell and undercutting them.

you are making assumptions that are not necessarily true.

1. that the 'weekend dip' was in fact a real pattern that would have been repeated whether or not new traders learned about it. this is definitely questionable. sure you can point to the fact that banks are closed on weekends and therefore no new money on gox. but that is more fundamental than technical

2. that the reason that the 'weekend dip' stopped was because of new traders learning about it. if this was true, then the dip should just continue moving up earlier in the week. everyone sells friday in anticipation of the weekend dip, now becomes a friday dip. then ppl try to frontrun again, it becomes a thursday dip. etc

Quote
these regularities have been shown to exist, and i do believe they violate the strong form of the EMH, which would imply that a good is at its 'true price' at all times in the marketplace. in practice this falls quite short of ideal.

well the EMH is just a hypothesis. you need to decide just how efficient each market is. the S&P500 is about as efficient as they come. its unlikely that you can convince me that TA will work on that market. Bitcoins? way inefficient. thats because its still in growth stage. inside information isnt as important as new projects and wider exposure. that is pretty much what will determine the price. western union makes announcement? price spikes. silk road goes down? price falls.

Quote
remember how the price doubled suddenly after a long period of consolidation a few months before the block reward halving? the suddenness of the onset of the price discovery phase suggests that the way that price-relevant information is factored into the price is far from ideal, and if you have meta-information -- information of another players' future actions -- you can undercut them profitably.

this is definitely all true. bitcoin is endlessly in price discovery mode and will continue for a long time. it will be a rollercoaster. if you have info that western union will start at X date, you will be undercutting every seller who sells prior.

overall i agree with your post. but my contention has been whether or not you will actually find usable, valid information from which you can profit from, merely by looking at charts of past prices and drawing lines and BIGMACd indicators and looking for shape of erections developing. i exaggerate for humor, but nonetheless the point remains. and in this post of yours, you dont really talk about charting techniques which is probably why i am not in disagreement

and i'm not just some random who is trying to troll all the chartists. i have read many books on TA and devoted a lot of time in the futures markets. i really wanted TA to work. however, nothing ever passed the common sense test. (talking about discretionary trading only here, obviously if you backtest huge data and have statistical evidence, then sure, but in that case, you aren't trading technically, you are trading statistically). Market Profile stuff made sense, but it seemed to apply more to efficient markets like the big indexes
arepo
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this statement is false


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May 02, 2013, 07:17:56 AM
 #230


overall i agree with your post. but my contention has been whether or not you will actually find usable, valid information from which you can profit from, merely by looking at charts of past prices and drawing lines and BIGMACd indicators and looking for shape of erections developing. i exaggerate for humor, but nonetheless the point remains. and in this post of yours, you dont really talk about charting techniques which is probably why i am not in disagreement


i'm glad we're mostly in agreement Smiley

you're right of course, all this is fine and dandy but i've got to show that the specific methods of technical analysis are effective at 'uncovering' these patterns. i find that standard indicators like the MACD do indicate simple trends well, as i mentioned earlier, and the properties of price momentum are really effectively displayed by oscillators.

not only do real-world things like closed banks cause regularities, but patterns in human behavior as well. the convenient thing is, we don't have to hypothesize about social psychology -- we just have to rigorously show a pattern in the data.

for the trend-following example, we tend to overreact, and push the price into 'overbought' and 'oversold' states (these are metaphors, admittedly, but give a decent understanding of what the oscillators represent). recognizing that we are in these unstable states helps you anticipate price movement, given other market conditions. i'm reminded of a striking example of this during the rally to $160:

-===-

update 6:

10-day 2-hourhourly scale



-===-

'moving support' here even more robust than the scaled chart i sent out in emails, showing the insane momentum of this last push. we're gonna start running out of space, soon, though. picking up some risk here.

update 6:

more trendline magic!

William's %R 10-DAY 1-HOUR scale

-===-



-===-

downward breakout associated with a correction to the uptrend, as projected from update 5. 50-line bounce is very bullish, and we seem to have found support at a lower line.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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