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Author Topic: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections  (Read 14210 times)
arepo
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May 01, 2013, 04:34:59 AM
 #181

Broke out the wrong way  

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why should i? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 04:39:42 AM
 #182

Broke out the wrong way 

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why not? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo

I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something  Grin


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arepo
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May 01, 2013, 04:46:52 AM
 #183

I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something  Grin

yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.

also, you saved me precisely no time, because while it may seem 'obvous' that your hypothetical explanation is correct, it is not rigorous enough -- only a fool should be so sure of why any particular price movement occurs.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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May 01, 2013, 04:51:04 AM
 #184

People were expecting new money to come with new week but that didn't happen due to holiday coming, so price dropped from initial rally from yesterday. Silk road situation probably added to that, then panic etc..

No way nobody can calculate will this or that wall stay there in such a wild market like this one is. We can only guess and pray to be lucky.

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May 01, 2013, 05:43:16 AM
 #185

I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something  Grin

yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.

also, you saved me precisely no time, because while it may seem 'obvous' that your hypothetical explanation is correct, it is not rigorous enough -- only a fool should be so sure of why any particular price movement occurs.

--arepo

Artificially increasing the volatility will only transfer money from them to me.  There are lots of other market makers that feel the same.  In the long run, it will make no difference.

However, this is an excellent example of why no TA is perfect (I know you don't believe this yourself arepo, just picking a teaching moment for new traders).  People will do what they want despite what any sane trader would say about the chart. This is because many trade bitcoin who do not understand how to use short time frame TA properly: to make a planned trade more efficiently.  Using it speculatively is very risky when you look at short time frames.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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May 01, 2013, 06:30:13 AM
 #186

Broke out the wrong way  

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why should i? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo

You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.

"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
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arepo
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May 01, 2013, 06:36:43 AM
 #187

You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.

again, the basis of my argument against the perceived 'absolute power' or manipulators, or even just traders with large amounts of capital proportional to the market cap, is that the self-regulating nature of the market makes direct price manipulation proportionally expensive to its magnitude.

this being said, it shouldn't necessarily "break" the various methods of TA. for instance, it's interesting that the large move was timed perfectly with the triangle consolidation. these moves are more predictable than you think.

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 08:07:53 AM
 #188

You can try to predict the actions of the masses with some success but not the action of 1 or 2 people and that's all it takes to move things considerably in this market.

again, the basis of my argument against the perceived 'absolute power' or manipulators, or even just traders with large amounts of capital proportional to the market cap, is that the self-regulating nature of the market makes direct price manipulation proportionally expensive to its magnitude.

this being said, it shouldn't necessarily "break" the various methods of TA. for instance, it's interesting that the large move was timed perfectly with the triangle consolidation. these moves are more predictable than you think.

--arepo

I'm not talking about manipulation. Just someone with lots of coin ( that they have acquired at very low prices) that feels like cashing in a few... thousand...   and the cost is almost nothing to him.

"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
Martin Armstrong
arepo
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May 01, 2013, 08:37:05 AM
 #189

I'm not talking about manipulation. Just someone with lots of coin ( that they have acquired at very low prices) that feels like cashing in a few... thousand...   and the cost is almost nothing to him.

i think i understand what you're saying -- for fear of talking at cross purposes, let me clarify what i meant:

say he picks a 'bad time' to dump -- the worst time would be at a market bottom. if he does so, there is a 'cost' of lost profits. also, if the market is 'ready to go up', a dump is just going to be picked up by smart sellers, and there would be very little effect at all.

as such, buyers and sellers don't really have a direct effect on the price, but mesh with 'market conditions' to produce the effect on the price. following from this, you don't have to predict the individual actions of large players, just anticipate the possible effects of any action on present market conditions (which are given by some methods of TA).

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 09:48:27 AM
 #190

The sell orders on clarkmoody are still creeping up. The buys are still creeping down. I am holding my base BTC's and sold some bought at higher levels as I don't want to take a chance should we retest the 50-70 range. I am hoping we do go back down there so I can double up what I sold off. If not, live and learn...

IAS

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BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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May 01, 2013, 10:11:39 AM
 #191

The sell orders on clarkmoody are still creeping up. The buys are still creeping down. I am holding my base BTC's and sold some bought at higher levels as I don't want to take a chance should we retest the 50-70 range. I am hoping we do go back down there so I can double up what I sold off. If not, live and learn...

IAS

based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 11:29:56 AM
 #192

based on some fractal analysis, the lowest feasible bottom is around $90. i suspect that's where the support will be if we break $120.

it's amazing, but we're still 'consolidating' in huge, week-long swings from the 10 April crash:

-===-



-===-

modeling this with the classic triangle consolidation pattern, we get a similar picture, but unfortunately, it's difficult to tell what the slope of the bottom support is. if it is a flat-bottomed triangle, then $90 will be the support (yellow line); if it is a symmetrical triangle, we may see prices even lower (white line) before we reach the short-term bottom.

--arepo

You sure? I don't understand much TA but all I see is a bunch of oscillations converging around 130.



PS Thanks for your posts, I find them both helpful and entertaining

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May 01, 2013, 11:58:05 AM
 #193

You sure? I don't understand much TA but all I see is a bunch of oscillations converging around 130.



PS Thanks for your posts, I find them both helpful and entertaining

appreciate the thanks Smiley

and yes, triangles are one of the fractal patterns found in price, so there are often triangles-within-triangles. visible on the scale you have, we do seem to be consolidating as well, and in fact we're in a smaller, flat-bottomed triangle with support at $120 and a descending top from $160. can you see it?

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 12:09:40 PM
 #194

I also want to thank you for your contributions. At the moment, you're one of the very few that I listen to on this forum. And I'm slowly picking up some TA understanding as well. Keep it up!
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May 01, 2013, 12:21:46 PM
 #195

I also want to thank you for your contributions. At the moment, you're one of the very few that I listen to on this forum. And I'm slowly picking up some TA understanding as well. Keep it up!

i'm happy that so many people are coming out of the woodwork like this Smiley it really motivates me to continue being active in this thread, even though the price report has expired.

and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 12:36:12 PM
 #196


and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo

Well, right now I'm just holding. But if I do start trading using your advice I'll definitely share my profits if and when I see them, and I'd encourage others to do so as well. It's hard to put a number on good advice, but a percentage of my profits, no matter how big or small, is definitely worth it.
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May 01, 2013, 01:06:57 PM
 #197


and as always, if you profit from me, help keep it free! consider my presentation of analysis here a donation of my time and skills. feel free to tell me what you think it's worth! (address in sig).

--arepo

Well, right now I'm just holding. But if I do start trading using your advice I'll definitely share my profits if and when I see them, and I'd encourage others to do so as well. It's hard to put a number on good advice, but a percentage of my profits, no matter how big or small, is definitely worth it.

no pressure, donations are optional Tongue

i wish you the best of luck. Smiley

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 02:23:32 PM
 #198

arepo - I see your point with the triangles, but I don't understand how you can't take volume into play?

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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May 01, 2013, 08:53:13 PM
 #199

arepo - I see your point with the triangles, but I don't understand how you can't take volume into play?

well after the fact, it's pretty convenient that what i called for has just played out.

but i'm not quite sure what you mean? i'm not taking volume into account?

--arepo

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May 01, 2013, 11:36:46 PM
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: arepo on 20:01:44, 27 April 2013

you guys are fools if you think we're going to break $120 any time soon.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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