Should I cancel my BFL 4/2/2013 Order?

[erk]

You realize that there are probably 50-100k people between the ones who have ordered from BFL, and the ones that are part of a chip buy from Avalon?

Asics are not causing centralization.

I find that figure absurd, that's probably out by at least an order of magnitude. Most orders are for multiple chips per person. I would be surprised if there are more than hundreds of people involved in the Avalon chip buy.

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[k9quaint]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns.

Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision.

If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor"

Clearly, you read neither the title of the thread nor the original post where advice was solicited about whether or not to cancel a BFL order.

[Inaba]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

[Nemesis]

Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision.

If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor"

Why, is this your thread?

The OP asked for opinions, so I'm giving them. Get a refund and toss your money into the stock market and make 10% per year rather than wait 2-3 years for a chance to break even. Or if you really do believe in bitcoins, buy some and make a killing in a couple weeks.

This just prove i'm arguing with shortbus rider again.

Welcome to my ignore, retard

[Nemesis]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Break even after 2-3 years is horrible returns.

Are you a customer? If so , get your refund and leave others to make their own decision.

If not? stfu and get off. Ppl can deal with their financial investment without you being their "advisor"

Clearly, you read neither the title of the thread nor the original post where advice was solicited about whether or not to cancel a BFL order.

Clearly, you didnt see why this thread is a full of shit. Ppl who ask financial advice from random guy on the internet are not fit to even do any investment. A fool and his money is soon to be parted.

But go ahead, acting like a real financial advisor on here does fullfill some losers life.
 

[Rampion]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?

You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling.

[erk]

when you are 6 months late and 100% ROI has gone from hours to months during that 'gap' people have a right to bitch........

Hours lol, how much do you think BTC was worth 6mths ago to support you claim?

[Inaba]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?

You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling.

BFL does not participate in Bitcontroll.org, sorry.  I don't represent anything but myself here.

[Nemesis]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?

You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling.

BFL does not participate in Bitcontroll.org, sorry.  I don't represent anything but myself here.

Josh, can i ask you kindly leave this thread and focus your energy on the SCs and little SCs? This forum is hopeless man

[k9quaint]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Plus, Singles do not yet exist except in the plans of BFL.

Of course, if BTC goes to $5000 the story will be different.  

Josh, can i ask you kindly leave this thread and focus your energy on the SCs and little SCs? This forum is hopeless man

He should be focusing his energy elsewhere, but I would be surprised if he took your advice.
If the forum is hopeless, why are you here?

[ordy]

I understand it just fine, you don't seem to understand basic math.  Show your work or you're just making crap up.  

There's plenty of projections that show a positive ROI even at 100x difficulty and beyond.  I have yet to see a single credible projection that doesn't show a positive ROI at some point within 2 - 3 years with all the worst case scenarios coming into play at the same time .

I trust Organofcorti's calculations far more than I trust your speculation.

Based on past history an April order will be likely delivered in 2014, when difficulty will be very high. Sorry, I'm basing this assumption on facts: continuous delays, huge backlog, etc. Organofcorti's calculations arrive only to July this year, and still you can see below how he forecasted a x10 increase in just three months. If that trends continues.... Well, good luck with having a ROI at 1,000x.

Another fact is that you are not guaranteeing any delivery date. That's a huge risk in mining business, because as you acknowledged if you don't get your mining unit early enough so you can recoup your costs in the very first weeks, you won't ROI at all. And BTW, if you trust organofcorti's calculations you should know he wrote literally:

Notice that the BFL Single SC at $2500 / 50 Ghps (currently 19.2 btc / 50 Ghps, or 0.38 btc / Ghps) is quite profitable, right up to the end of May. It would need about twenty days mining to pay for itself, and once the 0.38btc / Ghps threshold is reached will return 200% of the purchase cost within the next seventy days. Based on this estimate, if I could be guaranteed delivery by the end of May I'd purchase a BFL Single SC.

Source: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.es/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

But, the point is you cannot guarantee delivery by the end of May - true? Maybe to him, to try to get some nice publicity, but not for the rest of us.

I am a BFL customer too, so I'm not enjoying this situation.

https://lh3.ggpht.com/-MSoTAcfOy7k/UXZaDbe-PGI/AAAAAAAAHnQ/8KOk88tB9fI/s1600/9.14.table1.2013-04-23.png

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

when you are 6 months late and 100% ROI has gone from hours to months during that 'gap' customers/investors are 110% justified to bitch........

correction - it would have been long enough to be considered days not hours in most people's books back then but still a far cry from when/if 'regular' customers will seek to realize their ROI

[Nemesis]

So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?

You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling.

You know what? Dont bother buying BFL mining products or any mining products. Just take your money and listen to some genius here, buy stocks.... while at it ask your broker to GUARANTEE your ROI is 100% annually. Then come back and share your joy with us.

Yup thats how its done,..... like a boss.

[Rampion]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Plus, Singles do not yet exist except in the plans of BFL.

Of course, if BTC goes to $5000 the story will be different.  

It's amazing for me how he plays games with dubious statements, like implying that the order we are discussing here will be delivered in July (hash rate 486TH). The drama here is that no one knows when our mining gear will arrive, and based on past history that could be in 1 year from now.

If the difficulty keeps growing as per the calculation displayed above... Yeah, difficulty does x10 each three months, you can imagine where will it be in one year.

[Rampion]

So you are guaranteeing here that an April order like the one we are discussing in this post will be delivered in July?

You represent a company, I'd appreciate some clear and honest statements instead of trolling.

You know what? Dont bother buying BFL mining products or any mining products. Just take your money and listen to some genius here, buy stocks.... while at it ask your broker to GUARANTEE your ROI is 100% annually. Then come back and share your joy with us.

Yup thats how its done,..... like a boss.

I'm not asking for a guaranteed ROI - I'm asking for a guaranteed delivery date. It's so difficult for you to understand that?

Why don't you buy Bitcoin from me, I tell you all sales are final, you send me the fiat, and then I don't send your BTCs for months. And if you dare to bitch I will tell you to just buy stocks.

[Inaba]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Please cite your math for 18 months.  

Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050.  Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI!  Stop the train!  Holy crap!

All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically.

[k9quaint]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Please cite your math for 18 months.  

Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050.  Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI!  Stop the train!  Holy crap!

All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically.

The BTC/USD price I quoted was $14. This was to illustrate that your USD returns depend on the BTC price remaining high for the next 3 months.
.25 BTC at $14 is $3.50, not $35.
That chart has the hash rate doubling every 1.5 months. So for a device delivered Aug 1st, the first 1 and 1/2 months you would earn about $252 dollars, the second month and a half you would earn $126, then $63, then $31 etc. I was being generous with the 18 months, according to that trend a single delivered in August and priced at $1200 would never pay itself off.

Obviously, at some point the network hash rate will level off, it cannot double in strength forever.
Obviously, nobody can know what the price of Bitcoin will be in August.

[Tehfiend]

Ordered this almost a month ago. Looks like they're shipping but what will the ROI be assuming I get the monitor the earliest which will be July/August?

It's the 60GHash for $1300

IMO you'll make money as long as the exchange rate holds, the mining difficulty doesn't increase faster than expected, and you get your order before the end of the year.

You basically have 3 unknown factors to consider; future exchange rate, future mining difficulty, and delivery date. The exchange rate is completely unpredictable so you really just have to throw the dice on that one. The mining difficulty is the most predictable of the three and you can check out this blog for a pretty thorough forecast. Ship date is another extremely unpredictable variable as I'm sure nobody who pre-ordered last year would have predicted they would still be waiting at this point. I personally do not believe BFL will ship April orders by August but I honestly have no idea since there's so little information available. Based on their sporadic and inconsistent updates and the extremely unprofessional behavior of their CEO, it doesn't look good IMO.

Another route would be to hold onto your pre-order and keep your eyes on the other emerging ASIC vendors and consider getting a refund if one of them opens for business before your order is delivered.

[ragingazn628]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Please cite your math for 18 months.  

Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050.  Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI!  Stop the train!  Holy crap!

All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically.

I understand but what about the potential investments? What if I can buy 10 BTC for $1300 today and in 4 months that $1300 goes up 10x?

So I lost the chance to make ~$11000?

[SgtSpike]

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day.  That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month.  A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate.  If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Please cite your math for 18 months.  

Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050.  Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI!  Stop the train!  Holy crap!

All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically.

I understand but what about the potential investments? What if I can buy 10 BTC for $1300 today and in 4 months that $1300 goes up 10x?

So I lost the chance to make ~$11000?

Keep in mind that mining profits would go up 10x as well.

[erk]

Keep in mind that mining profits would go up 10x as well.

ASIC's are not "the goose that laid the golden egg" as some people try to push that view of their effect on mining.

It's a moving target, ultimately profits will come down to the energy cost per coin.

There is nothing stopping BFL or Avalon re-doing their ASIC in TSMC's lower power 20nm fab sometime in the near future, and shifting the mining profit goal post yet again.